I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.
How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.
Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:
I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.
Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.
Tend to agree with you over Ognasty
I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid
If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit
And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017
if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k
or not time will tell.
I'm not sure that Covid really has anything to do with it, I think it is simply that the numeric impact of each halving gets smaller each time, and it gets smaller faster than a simple halving would imply.
If you look at this table:
You can see that at the start if this epoch (3rd to 4th halving) 18.375 million coins had already been issued. During this epoch only another 1.3 million coins will be issued, so the halving only
impacts those 1.3 million coins, and that's just 7.1% of the coins already issued. Whereas the last halving affected nearly 17% of the coins already issued. Conversely the next halving will only affect 3.3%.
So although the emission rate halves each time, the impact (i.e. number of coins involved) actually drops off even faster.
Note: I am counting the coins that were issued at the start of the epoch, if you counted from the end it would seem even smaller.