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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2595. (Read 26719098 times)

legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23


Usual game for the first day of the year.
Pretty easy if you are a member of this thread and you remember my past posts.

What I am looking at?
Where am I?


Shit, got no time, but i can remember. I won't give out a hint, though (or should i?)

Up to you!


Somewhere between Italy and Switzerland… but on Italian side, under the peak of Alps.


Vague and not correct.





around Jungfrau Top of Europe? Switzerland?

or you come back around here?

Not.



Close, but not cigar.
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
i think that all hodlers got rekt in a sense (if you had most before 2022) by losing 70% of the nominal value (measured in less ability to pay for typical things), although it is different in comparison to the situation when your coins were stolen either by a hack or by some unscrupulous, possibly criminal, and definitely negligible entity such as FTX, Blockfi, Celsius, etc, etc.
As far as breakeven for mining, people can tolerate negative return for a short time (I assume maybe half a year or a bit less).

Your idea of getting reckt seems to be different from my own.  Of course, each of us recognize that there are gradients in terms of getting reckt, but geez Lois.. I would hardly classify poor employment of opportunity costs as even coming close to getting reckt  - because severe price moves should be anticipated, even severe price moves that go way beyond expectations, even in bitcoin.

Even if you might lean more in my direction after I argue this topic for a while, we still might not exactly agree upon where to draw the line because I would consider that even a person that starts investing into BTC towards the $69k top, would not necessarily be reckt as long as s/he did not blow his/her whole wadd at $69k and is investing no more than s/he can afford to lose - even if attempting to front load the investment a bit as long as s/he were to have kept buying.. .. so yeah, maybe even now, his/her average price per BTC might be upper $30ks or even in the $40ks, so it could take one or two years or even longer before the investment is out of the red.  But, I still would not consider that getting reckt...even if s/he has now run out of cash and just has to sit it out, or maybe is ONLY able to buy $10 per week or some low amount because s/he speculated that the BTC price was not likely to go below the 100-week moving average, which is currently starting to slope down and is currently less than $38k and it had been crossed below in May when it was around $35k.    So yeah, it could take a while to get back into the green (or the black) but I still would not categorize that as getting reckt.

Sure, some of the more extreme examples both of us likely agree that they fall into a kind of variation of reckt.


I am torn on this because I would have been careful NOT to share information while the attack is going on and things like that, and then being publicly known makes it seem as if even additional precautions might be needed. 

Signed,

truly torn.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 9201
'The right to privacy matters'

-snip-


As you mentioned, there is subjectivity.. but there is also relativeness, and there are some folks who got more reckt than others, even if some of those seemingly objectively reckt folks might not label where they are at currently as "reckt," and I am not even suggesting that you are amongst the reckt crowd Philip, even if I may have lectured you in a variety of other ways, and I am likely to continue to lecture you in a variety of other ways regarding some of your from time to time dumbass ideas.. especially related to how much you seem to be "in love" with Ibonds.. you dumb ass.. hahahahahaha no homo.   Wink Wink

I did not mention I bonds you did. 😀

I went out of my way to not mention them.

To be honest I felt reckt in Sept when my 300k worth of gpus could no longer mine an unmentioned coin.

They dropped from 10k / 4 monthly profit to 1k/4 . it was devastating.


I was short in my mining ratios.

way too many gpus and not enough btc gear.

I was helped that btc dropped in value allowing me to buy a lot of btc mining gear.

so my btc-gpu ratio is more what it should be.

While i prefer steady sideways to medium uptick. I can cope with large uptick.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 875
Merit: 1362
Happy new year gents. Hoping you're all well and looking forward to whatever the next year has to bring, both in Bitcoinlandia and in Fuckeduplandia.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
I checked that Earn product, but as soon as I saw that they are actually lending to a third party (Genesis), any thoughts of participating quickly disappeared.
Could there be any contagion to bitcoin? maybe, but, hopefully, limited.
GBTC might be affected, though, darn it! I have a small bit in ret accounts.

i had stuff in gemini earn for a bit but when luna/terra went down i pulled it out. fun while it lasted i guess. but i also knew the full risks and understood genesis was a separate entity vs gemini exchange as i actually read the terms lol. i knew it could disappear at any moment, i did the mtgox thing already thankyouverymuch.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


[...] and surely there can be a lot of ways to describe how much any of us may have gotten reckt

lulz

let me count the ways haha
legendary
Activity: 4004
Merit: 4656
A major clash between Winkelvoss twins and Barry S:
https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1609913051427524608/photo/1

check out the twitter thread...Epic!

I checked that Earn product, but as soon as I saw that they are actually lending to a third party (Genesis), any thoughts of participating quickly disappeared.
Could there be any contagion to bitcoin? maybe, but, hopefully, limited.
GBTC might be affected, though, darn it! I have a small bit in ret accounts.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
$BTC and $ETH outperformed major stock indexes on a risk-adjusted basis in 2022

Twitter

What's eth?

Well, why didn't I get reckt?  Yet?  Consider that.
I submit getting reckt is subjective.

Am I reckt?  my mining income is no longer 32k/4 per month it is more like 4k/4 per month.

Fair enough.

You have a habit of doing a lot of dumb shit, but then rationalizing that it is the right thing to do.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


So 8000 a month is now 1000 a month Is that reckt?

I am not sure.  There are somethings that are part of a dynamic that you set up, and it can take years to figure out whether there might have been better ways (for uie-pooie) to deploy your capital, so in some sense, when you had made a choice to get involved in bitcoin mining 11-12 years ago, there are some trade-offs with that and if you keep building in that direction, for sure it can take a while to see return on investments.

For sure, you have built some of your speciality too, and you are going to be inclined to build in the direction of your speciality, so there likely can be some personal satisfaction to spend time mining and building mining and even having some geographical tie down that allows for mining activities that might be less suitable for someone who does not want to get either geographically tied down, tied to a business and might want to stay more liquid.  Yes, some quasi-intangible angles that are individualistic and subjective like you mentioned.

For some that would be reckt for me it is not why is that? $0 debt.

There are a variety of ways of reading whether you might be in a good set up or not, and for sure, the use of debt is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you know how to do it.  There have been a lot of folks - including in the mining industry, that got reckt as fuck in the last year or less because of the ways that they had employed debt.. so surely, your way of doing it may have ended up being better.. I cannot exactly answer for you, and surely when you are investing a lot in equipment, those investments can take a decently long time to pay off.. so it may well not be a good time to be counting chickens, even if you might be feeling kind of smug and even kind of like you put yourself in a good place for future payoffs, and that cannot be completely my way of judging your relative state of recktness or not.

Yeah it was nice making 8k a month for some months in 2021 and for some months in 2022. It is not so nice making 1k per month.

Actually having a positive cashflow (even if reduced) is way better than some folks/businesses (miners) who are not in a positive cashflow from their equipment.

But $0 debt and a good power deal means I am ready for uppity.

Not going to begrudge you about those kinds of possibilities.

A rebound for BTC means my mining rebounds.

Possibly.   I doubt it is a good idea to count your chickens too soon, even if you may well have put yourself into a good set up (or bouncing off) location in terms of your own way of setting things up and perhaps including feeling that you are having results that are as good as expected or even better than expected in the context of the overall market (bitcoin and macro and even your own particulars in terms of finances and psychology) in which we find ourselves, currently.

flatline for BTC means I can expand my btc gear and my btc holdings.

Yes.  A lot of folks are not in such a position, so you are correct in the sense that reckt folks would not be ready, willing or able to expand during times like this because some of them are sweating it through and others are sweating through the process of either regrouping or going out of business.  In that sense, there can be quite a bit of good feelings when you are in a place in which the BTC price (or whatever market conditions) are coming to you, rather than you having to adjust way more than you had been wanting to because you had not prepared yourself financially and/or mentally for where we are at and/or where we might be going from here.

So this year 2023 at 14-18k means I dca I buy some dips. I grow my mine.
or this year at 28-38k means I dca           I keep mine size stable.

We all have plans one way  or the other.

I am set in the 14-18k range
I am set in the 28-38k range
I am set in the 56-100k range
I am set in the 101-200k range
I am selling and stopping all mining or dca in the  200k+ range.

on the downside I am good till around 6k at 6k I am not sure what mining will be for me as my power may not be cheap enough at that price.

It's good to have a plan for a wide variety of scenarios, and surely in previous posts I had heard you asserting that you are prepared to mine bitcoin until you were either 70 years old or close to 70, so if you are  in the ballpark of 66 years old, then it may well be the case that we might be able to arrive at $200ks prior to your turning 70.. and yeah, there are no guarantees because we have best case scenarios and we have worse case scenarios, so sometimes there still might be a time component and not just a price component when our timeline is potentially getting lower.. so I personally do not have those kinds of dynamics that I am considering.. but of course, each of us have our various considerations.. and even though I am engaging in some BTC accumulation  in the past 6-9 months that has gone beyond expectations, I am not really wedded to having to engage in BTC accumulations, and I could transition into either maintenance mode or even transition into liquidation mode as a back-up plan and really without really sacrificing in terms of current lifestyle, even though it would then likely take away possible abilities to live many years down the road or to legacy matters, to the extent that legacy does matter....

. but yeah the initial bouncing off topic was about getting reckt, and surely there can be a lot of ways to describe how much any of us may have gotten reckt in terms of our reliance on models or our putting a lot of eggs in one model or another, so there may well be some rich folks who got reckt as fuck by how much they were gambling on various entities that went bankrupt this year, but if we are talking about merely expecting the BTC price to go up rather than down in light of the stock to flow model or even expecting BTC not to go below the 200-week moving average (which is now at $24,415), then surely some of those folks got reckt because not ONLY were they not prepared in case the BTC price went below the 200-week moving average (which was at around $22k when we first went below it in June 2022), some of them were leveraging or otherwise had various bets and non preparations for the BTC price to both go below the 200-week moving average, but to largely stay quite a bit below the 200-week moving average for going on  7 months now.  Holy fuck... painful for a lot of folks, but some folks got more reckt than others... and some folks lived (and are still living) to fight another day.. and it seems that both you (Philip) and I are both in the "live to fight another day" camp, even if aspects of our philosophy and risk management and even ways of measuring probabilities differ.  We need not all be the same in order to not get reckt and/or to "live to fight another day" in markets like this.

As you mentioned, there is subjectivity.. but there is also relativeness, and there are some folks who got more reckt than others, even if some of those seemingly objectively reckt folks might not label where they are at currently as "reckt," and I am not even suggesting that you are amongst the reckt crowd Philip, even if I may have lectured you in a variety of other ways, and I am likely to continue to lecture you in a variety of other ways regarding some of your from time to time dumbass ideas.. especially related to how much you seem to be "in love" with Ibonds.. you dumb ass.. hahahahahaha no homo.   Wink Wink
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard
$BTC and $ETH outperformed major stock indexes on a risk-adjusted basis in 2022



Twitter

First resize your pics when you post copypaste here... these huge pics are fucking annoying...  this is how you do:
 
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/tutorial-how-to-add-image-resize-image-and-make-image-clickable-2958771


And second, nobody wants to see any shitcoin promotion here.... take that trash where people are interested in scams like mETH
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1891
bitcoin retard

... see our BTC in profits by good margins..

...until he see his target price.....

....I dont think there is point in HODLing the Bitcoin foreve,....

.... sell when you are getting good profit....

Hope that clarifies my point.


Yes it clarifies that you seem to be in BTC to get more fiat.

It clarifies that to you Bitcoin is probably not much more than a fiat money making machine.

How about trying to make your "good profits" somewhere else...?  ....maybe buy some noble coins from surpreme leader Vitalik ...so  you will make even more profits ... and more quickly at that...  

Wouldn't that be great?

legendary
Activity: 4004
Merit: 4656

-snip-

Also, I remain a BIG advocate of the stock to flow model, even if the stock to flow model, may well need to be shifted downwardly on its axis and also there has also been needs to include other angles in terms of assessing stock to flow including how to prepare yourself psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction even while ascribing validity to stock to flow, but how many people (normies) got reckt for their seemingly overly reliance on stock to flow specifics? How many people are going to end up getting reckt here on out because they believe stock to flow is dead..? hahahahahaha  Don't blame me when people get reckt and they they say "you said.. blah blah blah.?  

Well, why didn't I get reckt?  Yet?  Consider that.

Actually, there are likely quite a few of WO regulars who did not get reckt.. but there may well be some portfolios that are doing better than other portfolios, but also depending on how they are being measured.. and sometimes it can be misleading to measure at specific snapshot times too... Nonetheless, we can still have our ways of making various arguments with one another and to say that "you should do this" or "you should have done that."  It's up to each of us, if we consider whether to make any adjustments at this point or at some time in the future in order to perhaps have better feelings about our investment portfolios. .and hopefully, BTC's ongoing role within that.



I submit getting reckt is subjective.

Am I reckt?  my mining income is no longer 32k/4 per month it is more like 4k/4 per month.

So 8000 a month is now 1000 a month Is that reckt?

For some that would be reckt for me it is not why is that? $0 debt.

Yeah it was nice making 8k a month for some months in 2021 and for some months in 2022. It is not so nice making 1k per month.

But $0 debt and a good power deal means I am ready for uppity.

A rebound for BTC means my mining rebounds.

flatline for BTC means I can expand my btc gear and my btc holdings.

So this year 2023 at 14-18k means I dca I buy some dips. I grow my mine.
or this year at 28-38k means I dca           I keep mine size stable.

We all have plans one way  or the other.


I am set in the 14-18k range
I am set in the 28-38k range
I am set in the 56-100k range
I am set in the 101-200k range
I am selling and stopping all mining or dca in the  200k+ range.


on the downside I am good till around 6k at 6k I am not sure what mining will be for me as my power may not be cheap enough at that price.

i think that all hodlers got rekt in a sense (if you had most before 2022) by losing 70% of the nominal value (measured in less ability to pay for typical things), although it is different in comparison to the situation when your coins were stolen either by a hack or by some unscrupulous, possibly criminal, and definitely negligible entity such as FTX, Blockfi, Celsius, etc, etc.
As far as breakeven for mining, people can tolerate negative return for a short time (I assume maybe half a year or a bit less).
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 9201
'The right to privacy matters'

-snip-

You might be considering that I am making the same point, or a similar point, but to me, it seems that my point is a wee bit different... so maybe it is difficult to communicate what I perceive to be important, yet frequently seemingly subtle, differences in the ways of framing investment approaches.. while trying to NOT be too critical.. but as I type, I am thinking that another aspect is that so many people retain somewhat subliminal ways of looking at bitcoin through the current fiat system, and I have been accused of the same because I frequently assert that people better fucking make sure that they project out their fiat expenses, and to assert that it is dangerous to go "all bitcoin."  How many folks got reckt because of these kinds of misreadings? 

Also, I remain a BIG advocate of the stock to flow model, even if the stock to flow model, may well need to be shifted downwardly on its axis and also there has also been needs to include other angles in terms of assessing stock to flow including how to prepare yourself psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction even while ascribing validity to stock to flow, but how many people (normies) got reckt for their seemingly overly reliance on stock to flow specifics? How many people are going to end up getting reckt here on out because they believe stock to flow is dead..? hahahahahaha  Don't blame me when people get reckt and they they say "you said.. blah blah blah.? 

Well, why didn't I get reckt?  Yet?  Consider that.

Actually, there are likely quite a few of WO regulars who did not get reckt.. but there may well be some portfolios that are doing better than other portfolios, but also depending on how they are being measured.. and sometimes it can be misleading to measure at specific snapshot times too... Nonetheless, we can still have our ways of making various arguments with one another and to say that "you should do this" or "you should have done that."  It's up to each of us, if we consider whether to make any adjustments at this point or at some time in the future in order to perhaps have better feelings about our investment portfolios. .and hopefully, BTC's ongoing role within that.



I submit getting reckt is subjective.

Am I reckt?  my mining income is no longer 32k/4 per month it is more like 4k/4 per month.

So 8000 a month is now 1000 a month Is that reckt?

For some that would be reckt for me it is not why is that? $0 debt.

Yeah it was nice making 8k a month for some months in 2021 and for some months in 2022. It is not so nice making 1k per month.

But $0 debt and a good power deal means I am ready for uppity.

A rebound for BTC means my mining rebounds.

flatline for BTC means I can expand my btc gear and my btc holdings.

So this year 2023 at 14-18k means I dca I buy some dips. I grow my mine.
or this year at 28-38k means I dca           I keep mine size stable.

We all have plans one way  or the other.


I am set in the 14-18k range
I am set in the 28-38k range
I am set in the 56-100k range
I am set in the 101-200k range
I am selling and stopping all mining or dca in the  200k+ range.


on the downside I am good till around 6k at 6k I am not sure what mining will be for me as my power may not be cheap enough at that price.
member
Activity: 80
Merit: 17
$BTC and $ETH outperformed major stock indexes on a risk-adjusted basis in 2022



Twitter
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Why's he blocking me?
Maybe because you’re not who you claim to be either. Wink

Hahahahaha

Let's attack homer.


Homer is a phony.





Homer is a phony.







Homer is a phony.







Homer is a phony.






Homer is a phony.



This is fun.


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


HODLing is a strategy that is not time bound rather target bound. If we didn't see any ATH in 2023, that doesn't mean we start selling our BTC rather continue HODLing. Remember Dec 2017 bull run that's followed by bear market that lasted for approx 3 years before we saw latest ATH of 67k$.
Your points are a wee bit confusing.
~~~~
We could even trajectory out BTC's price, and maybe we get 10% price appreciation per year for several years in the future... and yeah, that would not be great, but it still may be possible that bitcoin is a good investment.. even with relatively mediocre performance in the coming years.. which I am not even suggesting that it is highly likely to happen, but I am suggesting that it would be a good thing for any of us to be prepared ourselves financially and psychologically for a wide variety of scenarios to happen, even various less likely scenarios.
My reply was based on post from serveria.com

There is great discussion regarding whether we will see ATH in coming year or not. Even there is a pole that whether we will see ATH in 2023 or 2024. If we dont see ATH in 2023 (or we dont see our BTC in profits by good margins) then what will be strategy? sell or HODL? What I want to say is that in such   case one must HODL until he see his target price. I dont think there is point in HODLing the Bitcoin foreve, sell when you are getting good profit.

Hope that clarifies my point.


I'm thinking that your point is even MOAR worser now that you clarified it.

I will repeat my point.  Each of us are likely to be able to profit stupendously from bitcoin, even if it takes several years before it reaches a new ATH.

Reaching a new ATH is icing on the cake, including that it could happen as soon as 1st quarter 2023 (best case scenario) or it could take several years to happen.. and surely it may not even happen (which does seem a lesser - or even unlikely scenario).

Any investment strategy should surely figure out a way to include bitcoin whether starting out with 1% to 25% allocation into bitcoin or some other amount that is individually tailored and also a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline.

You might be considering that I am making the same point, or a similar point, but to me, it seems that my point is a wee bit different... so maybe it is difficult to communicate what I perceive to be important, yet frequently seemingly subtle, differences in the ways of framing investment approaches.. while trying to NOT be too critical.. but as I type, I am thinking that another aspect is that so many people retain somewhat subliminal ways of looking at bitcoin through the current fiat system, and I have been accused of the same because I frequently assert that people better fucking make sure that they project out their fiat expenses, and to assert that it is dangerous to go "all bitcoin."  How many folks got reckt because of these kinds of misreadings? 

Also, I remain a BIG advocate of the stock to flow model, even if the stock to flow model, may well need to be shifted downwardly on its axis and also there has also been needs to include other angles in terms of assessing stock to flow including how to prepare yourself psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction even while ascribing validity to stock to flow, but how many people (normies) got reckt for their seemingly overly reliance on stock to flow specifics? How many people are going to end up getting reckt here on out because they believe stock to flow is dead..? hahahahahaha  Don't blame me when people get reckt and they they say "you said.. blah blah blah.? 

Well, why didn't I get reckt?  Yet?  Consider that.

Actually, there are likely quite a few of WO regulars who did not get reckt.. but there may well be some portfolios that are doing better than other portfolios, but also depending on how they are being measured.. and sometimes it can be misleading to measure at specific snapshot times too... Nonetheless, we can still have our ways of making various arguments with one another and to say that "you should do this" or "you should have done that."  It's up to each of us, if we consider whether to make any adjustments at this point or at some time in the future in order to perhaps have better feelings about our investment portfolios. .and hopefully, BTC's ongoing role within that.
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