Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1491. (Read 26731704 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 5565
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
driving fees up

I think this is what's currently holding back the Bitcoin rally.  The amount of transactions piling up in the mempool is indeed becoming a problem.  The average transaction today seems to be costing more than $50.  That's a lot of money to spend just to be able to spend money.  As a vendor who sells items that cost less than that for BTC I can tell you that there are indeed consequences in the Bitcoin economy when this happens.  It's typically something you see happen at the peak of cycles, so it's troublesome that outrageous fees are already hurting the blockchain.  Maybe someday people will break Bitcoin free from it's Blockstream chains and let it do what it was meant to.

You sound a lot like FUD.
legendary
Activity: 4382
Merit: 9330
'The right to privacy matters'
.....That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this) .....
[edited out]
Never said it was broken.  Said it is truly different this time.

Maybe I misunderstood, but ... there... I highlighted it for you... which sounds like another way of saying miners are ongoingly manipulating the bitcoin fees system in a kind of broken way.. and yeah, maybe you did not mean it like that.. but that's how I read your various astute-sounding "prognostications."   Tongue

yeah so sitting with a stack of btc and looking at an obvious issue that is being exploited as I type does not feel so good does it?

If the largest pool can do what I am telling it looks like they are doing you are likely a bit defensive.

All I have heard is btc btc btc btc from you.

and thats fine. I am simply saying.

the method I speak of is pretty much something btc is not able to correct at this moment it time.

We need to take out some popcorn and watch the action.

Consider that the large mines have billions invested they found an angle and are playing with it.

We have not seen these dynamics.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
.....That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this) .....
[edited out]
Never said it was broken.  Said it is truly different this time.

Maybe I misunderstood, but ... there... I highlighted it for you... which sounds like another way of saying miners are ongoingly manipulating the bitcoin fees system in a kind of broken way.. and yeah, maybe you did not mean it like that.. but that's how I read your various astute-sounding "prognostications."   Tongue
legendary
Activity: 4382
Merit: 9330
'The right to privacy matters'
https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…
I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.
Actually this is a good thing.

Btc = a large t-bill do not make small moves with it.

Ltc and Doge = small value moves.

So buy small amounts of LTC And DOGE for small money moves.

Stack btc at an exchange until it is at least 1000 value then move it to you wallet. 1000 moved for 20 bucks is not the end of the world.

Fuck shitcoins.  Have you heard of lightning network?

As for miners  (me) this is a good christmas. 🎄

BTW fees for btc will never be under 5 sats for extend periods of time. once the ½ ing happens.

I know of five or six ways big pools can jack fees at a profit to them.

If a dummy like me knows them the pools also know them.

Simplest one downclock you gear on the first  3 days of a jump. You save on power bigly. You clog the pool.

Fees go up. ⬆️ On fourth day put your gear on full speed.

You pull in bigger fees and more blocks.

That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this)

And that method works better and better as each ½ ing passes.

Bitcoin is broken, and miners are gaming the system?  You heard it here first.  Right?

Oh and on a sidenote, litecoin and doggie coin are our saviors.   Cry Cry Cry  It used to be that Ibonds were going to save us, now it is litecoin and doggie coin, and surely you have made those prognostications previously.. which goes to show that you have been a stronger soothsayer than previously thought... anyhow, your comment about not knowing about any solution seems to show that you have little to no imagination or you are just a pessimist when it comes to various ways to build on bitcoin, whether there might be some software tweaks or various second layers that do not necessarily hinge upon being distracted with shitcoins.

driving fees up
I think this is what's currently holding back the Bitcoin rally.  The amount of transactions piling up in the mempool is indeed becoming a problem.  The average transaction today seems to be costing more than $50.  That's a lot of money to spend just to be able to spend money.  As a vendor who sells items that cost less than that for BTC I can tell you that there are indeed consequences in the Bitcoin economy when this happens.  It's typically something you see happen at the peak of cycles, so it's troublesome that outrageous fees are already hurting the blockchain.  Maybe someday people will break Bitcoin free from it's Blockstream chains and let it do what it was meant to.

Oh?  Blockstream is the problem?

Who would-a-thunk?

Shit.. dee cornz is controlled/dominated by Blockstream, and perhaps keeping dee blocks too widdo, too?  Seems like I have heard those kinds of concerns, previously... Hm?

By the way, many of us should realize that BTC prices do not necessarily go UPpity without various corrections from time to time, and sometimes corrections may well be in the 20% to 30% territory, even during a bull run, and sometimes they even go as high as 50%, even during a bull run.. Who would have had thunk?  So far we have had a correction of around 10% down to $40,181 (from about a week ago).. and yeah it is looking like we might well possibly be getting greater than 10%.. and maybe such greater than 10% might happen, and maybe it won't? 

At the same time, I recall BTC prices being in the $26k/$27k territory right around 2 months ago, so the fact that we had hardly gotten any correction since Mid-October, that should be a noteworthy dynamic that shows that maybe a greater than 10% correction could happen?  How much greater?  who knows?   

As far as transaction fees interfering with the ability to justify transactions of less than $500, yes there likely is some truth to that, and so yes it could be difficult to know how long these levels of fees are going to be able to persist.  Someone is paying for those kinds of fees because transactions are still being processed at those higher rates.  So yes, for the little guy and for the regular transactions, there seem to be some temporary obstacles in regards to cost, and those people who have several options are better off than those who might ONLY have bitcoin as an option... and surely some might resort to transacting on shitcoins, yet I would think that these ongoingly high fees should be inspiring the consideration of various other bitcoin-related options and motivations to build various other bitcoin-related options..   Did anyone believe that there are not any costs in terms of transacting on bitcoin and surely some inconsistencies in the fees.. It may scare some people out of the BTC that they own, and it might deter others from buying BTC, but what does that mean for regular (or longer-term) BTC HODLers?  Coins will be cheaper for longer.. so anyone who knows about bitcoin should not be deterred from continuing to stack sats, even though they might not be able to transact with low fees for the time being.    Anyone who knows about bitcoin should not let these kinds of obstacles deter them from realizing that they better be sufficiently/adequately preparing their lil selfies for UPpity.. just in case, even though downity and/or sideways might be in the works.. too.. maybe .. and maybe not..


Never said it was broken.  Said it is truly different this time.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…
I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.
Actually this is a good thing.

Btc = a large t-bill do not make small moves with it.

Ltc and Doge = small value moves.

So buy small amounts of LTC And DOGE for small money moves.

Stack btc at an exchange until it is at least 1000 value then move it to you wallet. 1000 moved for 20 bucks is not the end of the world.

Fuck shitcoins.  Have you heard of lightning network?

As for miners  (me) this is a good christmas. 🎄

BTW fees for btc will never be under 5 sats for extend periods of time. once the ½ ing happens.

I know of five or six ways big pools can jack fees at a profit to them.

If a dummy like me knows them the pools also know them.

Simplest one downclock you gear on the first  3 days of a jump. You save on power bigly. You clog the pool.

Fees go up. ⬆️ On fourth day put your gear on full speed.

You pull in bigger fees and more blocks.

That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this)

And that method works better and better as each ½ ing passes.

Bitcoin is broken, and miners are gaming the system?  You heard it here first.  Right?

Oh and on a sidenote, litecoin and doggie coin are our saviors.   Cry Cry Cry  It used to be that Ibonds were going to save us, now it is litecoin and doggie coin, and surely you have made those prognostications previously.. which goes to show that you have been a stronger soothsayer than previously thought... anyhow, your comment about not knowing about any solution seems to show that you have little to no imagination or you are just a pessimist when it comes to various ways to build on bitcoin, whether there might be some software tweaks or various second layers that do not necessarily hinge upon being distracted with shitcoins.

driving fees up
I think this is what's currently holding back the Bitcoin rally.  The amount of transactions piling up in the mempool is indeed becoming a problem.  The average transaction today seems to be costing more than $50.  That's a lot of money to spend just to be able to spend money.  As a vendor who sells items that cost less than that for BTC I can tell you that there are indeed consequences in the Bitcoin economy when this happens.  It's typically something you see happen at the peak of cycles, so it's troublesome that outrageous fees are already hurting the blockchain.  Maybe someday people will break Bitcoin free from it's Blockstream chains and let it do what it was meant to.

Oh?  Blockstream is the problem?

Who would-a-thunk?

Shit.. dee cornz is controlled/dominated by Blockstream, and perhaps keeping dee blocks too widdo, too?  Seems like I have heard those kinds of concerns, previously... Hm?

By the way, many of us should realize that BTC prices do not necessarily go UPpity without various corrections from time to time, and sometimes corrections may well be in the 20% to 30% territory, even during a bull run, and sometimes they even go as high as 50%, even during a bull run.. Who would have had thunk?  So far we have had a correction of around 10% down to $40,181 (from about a week ago).. and yeah it is looking like we might well possibly be getting greater than 10%.. and maybe such greater than 10% might happen, and maybe it won't? 

At the same time, I recall BTC prices being in the $26k/$27k territory right around 2 months ago, so the fact that we had hardly gotten any correction since Mid-October, that should be a noteworthy dynamic that shows that maybe a greater than 10% correction could happen?  How much greater?  who knows?   

As far as transaction fees interfering with the ability to justify transactions of less than $500, yes there likely is some truth to that, and so yes it could be difficult to know how long these levels of fees are going to be able to persist.  Someone is paying for those kinds of fees because transactions are still being processed at those higher rates.  So yes, for the little guy and for the regular transactions, there seem to be some temporary obstacles in regards to cost, and those people who have several options are better off than those who might ONLY have bitcoin as an option... and surely some might resort to transacting on shitcoins, yet I would think that these ongoingly high fees should be inspiring the consideration of various other bitcoin-related options and motivations to build various other bitcoin-related options..   Did anyone believe that there are not any costs in terms of transacting on bitcoin and surely some inconsistencies in the fees.. It may scare some people out of the BTC that they own, and it might deter others from buying BTC, but what does that mean for regular (or longer-term) BTC HODLers?  Coins will be cheaper for longer.. so anyone who knows about bitcoin should not be deterred from continuing to stack sats, even though they might not be able to transact with low fees for the time being.    Anyone who knows about bitcoin should not let these kinds of obstacles deter them from realizing that they better be sufficiently/adequately preparing their lil selfies for UPpity.. just in case, even though downity and/or sideways might be in the works.. too.. maybe .. and maybe not..
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
donator
Activity: 4760
Merit: 4323
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
driving fees up

I think this is what's currently holding back the Bitcoin rally.  The amount of transactions piling up in the mempool is indeed becoming a problem.  The average transaction today seems to be costing more than $50.  That's a lot of money to spend just to be able to spend money.  As a vendor who sells items that cost less than that for BTC I can tell you that there are indeed consequences in the Bitcoin economy when this happens.  It's typically something you see happen at the peak of cycles, so it's troublesome that outrageous fees are already hurting the blockchain.  Maybe someday people will break Bitcoin free from it's Blockstream chains and let it do what it was meant to.
legendary
Activity: 4382
Merit: 9330
'The right to privacy matters'
Faith is not all bad.
It's where you put it that counts.
Faith in code, not god!

Bitcoin going up,
And then down, and then sideways...
Crystal Ball told me!

A piece of paper.
Two alphanumeric strings.
No firmware updates!

ETF or not,
Expect a 6-digit price,
In under a year!

Disney going woke...
I used to read Mickey Mouse.
They raped my childhood!

Banks are here to stay.
Bitcoin is here to stay, too.
Equilibrium!

Nice trick there, Philip!
Thanks for educating us,
On mining secrets.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

but economics
is ruling the show now mines
are driving fees up
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
Faith is not all bad.
It's where you put it that counts.
Faith in code, not god!

Bitcoin going up,
And then down, and then sideways...
Crystal Ball told me!

A piece of paper.
Two alphanumeric strings.
No firmware updates!

ETF or not,
Expect a 6-digit price,
In under a year!

Disney going woke...
I used to read Mickey Mouse.
They raped my childhood!

Banks are here to stay.
Bitcoin is here to stay, too.
Equilibrium!

Nice trick there, Philip!
Thanks for educating us,
On mining secrets.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
so hodl your btc .  100k in under a year looks easy


Hope so.
legendary
Activity: 4382
Merit: 9330
'The right to privacy matters'
https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I think it is to a certain extent.


Take this case I a wealthy  guy want at least 💯 thousand btc cost is 100,000 x 42,000 = 4,200,000,000

Or I set up foundery world largest pools. I ban anyone that has under 20ph in btc miners.

I get investors in on it and I create the current setup we see.

even if I pay 75 cents on the dollar to hit the rewards. I boosted the fees bigly and for now I get a block with 2 or 3 in fees along with 6 or 8-9 coins a block.

A deal for cheap power = 2- 3 cents
s19xps at 2500
s21s at 3500

I will get a ton of cheap coins.

best is: that you the none miner have very little recourse.


Buy btc from an exchange as much as you can and move to a wallet at 1000 or 2000 usd value so a 30 fee is not as bad.


Switch to scrypt for small value. ltc and doge.


here is the kicker if a lot switch to scrypt (second largest network) foundry is likely ready for this.


So the good thing is someone has decided the moves above are worth doing.

so hodl your btc .  100k in under a year looks easy
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 5565
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.

Actually this is a good thing.

Btc = a large t-bill do not make small moves with it.

Ltc and Doge = small value moves.


So buy small amounts of LTC And DOGE for small money moves.

Stack btc at an exchange until it is at least 1000 value then move it to you wallet. 1000 moved for 20 bucks is not the end of the world.

As for miners  (me) this is a good christmas. 

BTW fees for btc will never be under 5 sats for extend periods of time. once the ½ ing happens.

I know of five or six ways big pools can jack fees at a profit to them.

If a dummy like me knows them the pools also know them.

Simplest one downclock you gear on the first  3 days of a jump. You save on power bigly. You clog the pool.

Fees go up. ⬆️ On fourth day put your gear on full speed.

You pull in bigger fees and more blocks.

That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this)


And that method works better and better as each ½ ing passes.



Using LTC and DOGE as a makeshift Layer 2 is certainly a good plan.  For now.  I just paid some webhosting bills for one of my BTC nodes using LTC.  The problem is they have the exact same issue as Bitcoin in the end.  This plan will not work forever.  If everyone starts using Litecoin for little purchases then the fees will explode.

I will resist going into the reason why just making the block size larger will also not work.  But altcoins built on the Bitcoin codebase will eventually fall under their own weight.  Or their fees will go just as high (or conceivably higher).

We have several scaling methods emerging that solve some of the problems of trying to use Layer 1 chains.

Lightning is way better than LTC/Doge because it is working as a completely different network with different tradeoffs from Bitcoin.  We can do literally billions of transactions on Lightning and keep no central permanent database of those transactions.  So no bloated blockchain to drag around, and to cause centralization in the end.  Also this adds some privacy.

Liquid is a blockchain model that is run by people who can do enterprise level file storage, bandwidth and compute (that is if anyone ever uses it).  This blockchain is somewhat centralized by design, and the benefit is the people who run it are incentivized to offer a good fee to do transactions on it.  It has the potential to obsolete both LTC/Doge and ETH.  Because the tradeoffs ALLOW for a giant blockchain.  But we still have the base layer to come home to.

Other scaling projects will emerge, as well as forks of the above two.  But those are the ones that are ready for action today.

I am aware that neither of these two solutions is adopted enough to use in all cases.  This is why I did not web hosting transaction in LTC.  But the sooner the better... because the other plan just doesn't work.  It can't scale.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1360
Don't let others control your BTC -> self custody
Definitely not the "sell the news" guy.
The small difference in our opinions could be described as follows:

Me-"from the ETF approval flat or down for 3-4 mo, followed by the reversible bump around the halving, then flat until about May-June, THEN a strong, possibly two-humped bull.

@darkangel11: basically LFG...it will be mostly up from the get go because the crowd would be pumped by the Black Rock.

I grant you that your scenario is possible, just because the general public could be enticed to FOMO, but it kind of goes against what I observed in my investment career.
That said, I agree that over long term, this might be a very strong bull, so i don't intend to trade it in-and-out.
At some point, I believe, large Sovereign funds would get involved, as predicted by multiple players.

You said something about 10% reduction in the first months after the approval, which made me think about the "sell the news" theory. Then you said 3-4 m flat, which is more of my gut feeling that nothing will happen until they actually open for business and it's going to be a few months after the approval... BUT I don't underestimate the FOMO. The same FOMO that made people buy like crazy when Musk entered the market with Tesla. It takes just one big player like that Qatar fund that people are gossiping about to enter the market for the FOMO to start. It's all fun and games as long as they buy below 1k bitcoin per trade and everything bigger is OTC.

Since you're talking about movies... I stopped going to the cinema during the pandemic. We bought a 4k tv and a surround sound system and it was such a good decision.
No more watching commercials for 15 minutes before the actual movie starts.
We can pause for bathroom or tea.
We can answer the phone while watching.
So much cheaper especially since the nearest cinema is 15 min by car.
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