Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 100. (Read 647176 times)

before I switch of my computer, this blog really made me laugh :

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/why-nobody-wants-to-forecast-the-business-cycle/

Haha...Read the question, looks like the questioner idolizes Armstrong!
I would really like to see who is behind this question. I think it's small guy with a beard.

Sorry Gumbi, but I had to reply as you are back on your chair again insulting people, but what have you showed us?

You had your change to prove us wrong on your trade as "Armstrong stuck his neck out" (your words).
I feel sad for you. You really believe that the Socrates system works. There are almost 300 pages here with so many people who posted their experiences and all came to the same conclusion.
Yet you wanted to show that you could trade based on this, and on your very first trade you had the same problem everybody has when using the Socrates system.
Why I feel sad? Because you try to protect Socrates and say it's your own fault. But the truth is, following Socrates will only give you mediocre results. Sure, there will be some wins. But very often you will be on the sideline, waiting for something to happen so you can step in (long/short). And then after some time you realise you missed the trade.

Insider meaning someone who has been closely following his work don't make assumptions which is all you ever do.

if the Dow is making new highs going into Jan 18 2020 this will be a indication we move lower if we are retesting support this will  indicate new highs going into 2024 the same as it what happened in 2015.75.

The most likely reason you are not having any success is because you are not trading for the long term which is much easier to Forecast.

AE Global Insider identified



Just for the record. When Gumbi refers to other posters as outsiders this implies that he is an insider.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

...
2015.75(October 1st) was just the beginning you are simply mistaken, this is a common misconception by many outsiders.
...

the markets were crashing into the 2015.75 target on the ECM indicating that new highs would be carved out in the future. I decline would of been indicated if the market was making highs going into 2015.75.

Can you proof that he said that markets would crash after 2015.75?

...

the markets were crashing into the 2015.75 target on the ECM indicating that new highs would be carved out in the future. I decline would of been indicated if the market was making highs going into 2015.75.

Can you proof that he said that markets would crash after 2015.75?

all markets are not completely rigged that is an absurd conspiracy theory. Japan lost over $1 trillion trying to support the Nikkei share market and still could not reverse the bear market, no amount of money can ever manipulate a market and change its trend.


@DanB1

 I anticipated the direction without waiting for the Dow to elect its key weekly reversal so this trade was my mistake, this is what Armstrong was talking about when he said DO NOT ANTICIPATE"
Since we exceeded the high made on the 1st of July yes looks a cycle inversion. August is a turning point it looks like a high at this point.

 "We do not see highs on any SUSTAINABLE basis until the ECM bottoms come January"  The market is not truly breaking out we are due one more retest of support most likely in the fall.

You must have missed the part where he said in "2015.75" all markets everywhere would crash and they've done nothing but go straight up ever since.  The markets are all completely rigged and non-aggregate, controlled by the ESF/PPT and other organizations, so even if he did have some type of miracle model (he doesn't), he would still wind up being wrong anyway.

Thanks Gumbi. So can I now come to the conclusion that Socrates does not really work for trading?

I exited for the close on the 10th since we elected daily reversals on the Nasdaq and Dow. we have another daily bullish at 26966.10. This month is a panic cycle so we either move to the upside to 28k area  or retest the lows made the previous month if we elect the weekly bullish at 26951.82 it should be to the upside.

August is a turning point and October is the next so a high in August implies a low in October. the week of the high/low looks like the week of the 29th or the 5th.

Anyone here follow David H Hunter? https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian

Another cycles and macro strategist. He sees a melt-UP in the markets: S&P 3500, DOW 32000, Nasdaq 11000 by 4th Qtr - then a large fall.

Gold to also max out at $1550 and then fall below $1000 thereafter.

He sees the next cycle coming soon as highly inflationary with precious metals+miners zooming up (Gold $7000, Silver $200...), inc industrials and commodities. - Inflation and interest rates to be double digits by mid 2020s.

Bond market to be avoided in that cycle

Where he differs from Armstrong is that he sees the stock markets as falling 80% and not recovering for a generation. Armstrong says the high has extended to 2032..

I find it fascinating to follow and compare them both.

There is no short dollar vortex, people will simply DEFAULT on those debts.  If you default, there is NO DEMAND for the instrument in which you borrowed in.  It's all ODIUS, UNPAYABLE debt.  There is no synthetic short.  Technically it is a synthetic short, but not when nobody plans to honor any of those agreements.

Looking forward to seeing this. You might need to make the sheet public as it leads to an authorisation request

Here is my 3 timeunit analysis on the reversals provided by ediface

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W-3pYaPuLEMwS3Vsrjm1YaSrNIftvDhWFpCh3POhZ8g/edit#gid=871043527

Re-posting the link to the spreadsheet I started a couple months ago.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=0

My main purpose for posting this originally was to try to get some confirmation in my understanding of the reversal system which was not available via Socrates support and this is the only specific trading strategy listed in the documentation (open a position the open of the next trading day and close at the election of the reversal in the opposite direction). But since this information is proprietary I do not want to continue to update with new information. I will close out the open positions when that happens, however, so I will do some updating. And, I will say that the major changes are for the weekly reversals in the DOW (bullish positions were closed out and bearish positions were opened and then closed out all with losses), the USD/EURO weekly and monthly bearish reversals were all closed out at $1.1343, and WMT had several weekly and a monthly bullish reversal elected so more positions would have been opened.

In my limited experience so far I do not believe that Socrates is a fraud. The monthly reversals have overall worked very well for the handful of assets shown here. Also, there has always been follow-through when all of the bullish or bearish monthly reversals are elected for an asset.

I also believe that Socrates is extremely complicated and getting started is completely overwhelming. There is a lack of support for users trying to understand how to use the system, there are bugs, there is limited historical data, no back-testing capabilities, and some critical information is not included that was available in the version WEC attendees were able to use. It also does not have any capabilities for screening assets. Even if you have the ability on your own to scrape the data it is too expensive to get access to what you would need (i.e. the reversals). It essentially feels like the system is still designed for institutional users who would have access to everything in Socrates.

I am currently trying to build a strategy, as alluded to but not well-described in the user manual, for using failed election of reversals which seems to have some promise. Again, the lack of back-testing capabilities and limited access to data makes this an extremely difficult task.

@bikefront @MTL4 Could you send me a PM? I have some questions for you on your experience with Socrates.

Not sure either........on the larger trend both are currently bullish but I have no idea how you'd do short trades with that info.

Paralyzed

I just get this mailed:

Reports after 2019-07-10 close:

Daily Bullish elected: GDXJ Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner
Daily Bullish elected: $DXY THE CASH US$ INDEX


What do you do with that? These signals are in conflict with each other. So it means you cannot trade either market.

It is all complete bullshit.

Because: GDXJ short is one of the the winners of the day today.


Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud