Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 103. (Read 647176 times)

I have to admit, that's not how I remember it or happening but I do remember many people taking a lot of losses. I also say to myself while reading him, damn, did I miss a blog and the vagueness of his forecast.

Spot on!  I was at the 2015 WEC and was also on that WEC forum too and I remember that situation all too well.  We went through those arrays exhaustively to try and make any sense of how to trade them and finally most came to the same conclusion, they don't work (at least not the system we had been given access to).  I remember seeing a few people posting that they knew how to read the system and made plenty of money using it but when pressed the analysis seemed to be similar to MA where one minute they'd be using one part of the array to forcast something and then next time they'd be using something else often siting all sorts of rules tha MA had given over the years.  It was that exact scenario that caused me to develop my own system when MA's call for new lows continued while the market had certainly appeared to turn and was looking like it might be a good run (and it was).  Like you I also trade using my own TA then only use MA's ECM to see if it lines up with my own analysis (like an early warning indicator).  



Send me a PM if you want, evidently I only get 1 PM per hour because newbies get their account throttled until you get merit points.

Re-posting the link to the spreadsheet I started a couple months ago.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=0

My main purpose for posting this originally was to try to get some confirmation in my understanding of the reversal system which was not available via Socrates support and this is the only specific trading strategy listed in the documentation (open a position the open of the next trading day and close at the election of the reversal in the opposite direction). But since this information is proprietary I do not want to continue to update with new information. I will close out the open positions when that happens, however, so I will do some updating. And, I will say that the major changes are for the weekly reversals in the DOW (bullish positions were closed out and bearish positions were opened and then closed out all with losses), the USD/EURO weekly and monthly bearish reversals were all closed out at $1.1343, and WMT had several weekly and a monthly bullish reversal elected so more positions would have been opened.

In my limited experience so far I do not believe that Socrates is a fraud. The monthly reversals have overall worked very well for the handful of assets shown here. Also, there has always been follow-through when all of the bullish or bearish monthly reversals are elected for an asset.

I also believe that Socrates is extremely complicated and getting started is completely overwhelming. There is a lack of support for users trying to understand how to use the system, there are bugs, there is limited historical data, no back-testing capabilities, and some critical information is not included that was available in the version WEC attendees were able to use. It also does not have any capabilities for screening assets. Even if you have the ability on your own to scrape the data it is too expensive to get access to what you would need (i.e. the reversals). It essentially feels like the system is still designed for institutional users who would have access to everything in Socrates.

I am currently trying to build a strategy, as alluded to but not well-described in the user manual, for using failed election of reversals which seems to have some promise. Again, the lack of back-testing capabilities and limited access to data makes this an extremely difficult task.

@bikefront @MTL4 Could you send me a PM? I have some questions for you on your experience with Socrates.

Anonymous Coder:

- fabricated "phantom reversals" with unsubstantiated data
- says they have historical data from which they can prove their calculations but won't share it with someone who wants to verify their claims.  they don't have it.
- says they have high moral and ethical standards but tell others to lie to get data from Socrates customer service.
- accused myself and Gumbi of being one-in-the-same person and paid trolls.
- is quite conceited and would have us believe they know more about money, markets and AI than someone who has been in it for decades.  They of course can simply provide proof of this to back their claims -- but won't because they can't.
- continues to call Armstrong a fraud because they don't understand a system others do.
- can't read and comprehend basic Terms Of Use which details what Socrates is and isn't.

More holes in this posters statements than swiss cheese.  They continue to evade, mislead and misrepresent.  Nothing they say should be considered worthwhile.

I wouldn't call him a fraud either if he just made predictions that go wrong. The big difference is that he never admits to have been wrong where he was wrong. He simply lies about his past predictions. In that Gold example that you mention, he later actually claimed that he and his computer predicted the bounce:

Gold Report 2016 Part 1:

Another anomaly was that at the end of 2015, we elected the Quarterly Bearish
Reversal at 1112 closing at 1060.20. At the same time, that low generated a
minor Quarterly Bullish Reversal at 993. So we generated a long-term sell signal,
but a short-term buy signal. The next two Quarterly Bullish generated were at
1308 and 1347. That meant we should first rally typically for 2 to 3 months in a
reaction and if they failed to be elected by the close of March, then the longterm
trend should resume to retest support.

That IS fraud. That minor Quarterly Bullish Reversal came out months after he was still publishing bearish messages in his blog as you remember. This behavior goes so far that it is embedded in the source code of Socrates, where, if Socrates goes wrong, in the following report it claims it was right, by injecting after-the fact signals that it had never reported earlier.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Hey Guys, was curious when I found this and thought I'd contribute a little. I'd been reading MA since about 2009 and read his essay's while he was in jail which I'd regret to say had a more humble, down to earth and honest feel, I guess prison would do that to you. But nonetheless it was better IMO. He also had another website while in prison that I put my name on a mailing list, it was very basic and not well keep up but did have a contact email on it. He always put essay's out for gold and only used Comex market for his analysis which I thought was strange. I was at the time trading gold through my FX broker and E-signal charting with a FX feed which gave me the whole 24 hr gold market (Comex, Asia and London). I'm very reliant TA, always have, anyway I was getting more correct signals on my TA/e-signal then his published  essay's, so I decided to email him not really expecting him to write back. I asked, why he only uses the comex market when gold was a 24 hr global market and my TA seem to be more on point. Well, to my surprise I got an answer which he stated, You have to pick a point in time. Granted he was still in prison and shrugged it off as he doesn't have all the tools needed to work.

Since then I made mental notes and observation to see how they pan out, nothing scientific but enough to say my own strategy and TA works better for me. I since still read him and only act on his advice if it lines up with what I'm seeing for myself. I do not day trade but did right before the dot com burst, now buy and hold and swing trade my own account. I never was a professional.  

One last observation, I did attend the 2015 WEC and they setup a forum for all attendees which I participated in. After the wec in Dec 2015 MA called for gold to go down below the 1k mark but my TA was saying otherwise and express so on the forum. I believed it bottomed. I wasn't alone, there was an Asian female who also was stating the same observation. We both tried to convince everyone of what we were seeing cause, OMG, everyone was going short on his forecast. Well, I took a long position and so did the Asian female. The after math wasn't a pretty site. Pull up chart for dec/jan 2015 gold chart and see for yourself.  Gold rallied from 1062 to 1375.

I wouldn't at this time call him a fraud since you would have to call everyone who claims they have a winning strategy a fraud also. But I am just an regular guy with no back ground in software, engineering or computer science.

this forum seems to have been taking over by AnonymousCoder who can't help but repeat himself over and over again, clearly trying to control the narrative.

"We failed to elect a Weekly Bullish Reversal 2695182 (Socrates does not say that)"
the week of July 1st closed at 26922.12 so we OBVIOUSLY did not elect that reversal lol you need to learn how to think for yourself.

"1st of July is a turning point and the next is 8th July (Socrates does not say that)"
if you bothered to read the reports you would know the week of the 1st was a turning point. the 8th is now showing up as a turning point on the array
from the weekly pro analysis it says under timing "the strongest target in the weekly array is the week of  July the 8th"

It seems you are not subscribed to the pro version ?

Socrates the Non-Expert System


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/artificial-intelligence-neural-nets-sorting-out-truth-from-fraud/
Artificial Intelligence & Neural Nets - Sorting out Truth from Fraud
Posted Oct 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it seems many people are starting to pretend they have artificial intelligence systems and neural nets. It seems that they are using these terms very loosely. Can you explain the real difference? Everyone I have spoken to says you are the father of AI in finance.

...

ANSWER: Yes, 99% of what people pretend is Artificial Intelligence is nothing but an Expert System, which amounts to a look-up table.
...



Here, in a recent demonstration of the capability of the Socrates system

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51722301
and
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51731135


we find that a human expert is the main factor in sorting out what to do with the multitude of uncoordinated technical Socrates signals (after human interpretation):

1) We failed to elect a Weekly Bullish Reversal 2695182 (Socrates does not say that)
2) 1st of July is a turning point and the next is 8th July (Socrates does not say that)
3) The weekly energy model turns down indicating a high is in place
4) The daily energy model turns up
5) The most immediate daily bearish reversal lies at 26536.32
6) We have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.

Human Expert Conclusion: Entered a short position at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Does some of the above not resemble the look-up table of an Expert System?

Perhaps before Armstrong makes any Artificial Intelligence (AI) claims, he should first give Socrates some of the basic Expert System capabilities.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

26951.82 is a weekly bullish(major)

this was a hard call to make since we are playing the reversals in reverse and we also elected 2 weekly bullish reversals last week but the 1st of July was a turning point and missed its key major weekly reversal.. you would only exit at 26536 if it was tested but not elected. so the play goes as long as the reversals and array dictates. We also have a panic cycle this month so we could test the lows made in June, we are still due one move fake to the downside before we truly breakout so this last test of support could be a possible long term entry.


If you want true long term calls then follow the Economic Confidence Model, when the ECM turns on the 18 January 2020 a new trend will emerge in the case of the Dow this will be a possible phase transition.. highs and lows usually occur at the top and bottom of each wave and the markets that line up with the ECM are often the greatest receivers of capital so we have a potential long term commodity bull run from 2020 going into 2024 where we should see commodities peak in 2024. we have a agriculture bull run from 2020 going into 2024. its easy to see how markets align with the Economic confidence model it cannot be denied all you have to do is look.

Take gold in relation to the ECM for example in 2011.45(turning point) the bottom of  ECM  8.6 year cycle we had a high in gold the ECM then turned and a new trend emerged and gold declined into 2015 with 2015.75 being the peak in the ECM. So as we move into the bottom of this 8.6 year wave in 2020.5 its important gold makes a low not a high so if gold retests its low going into the next turning point this will be very bullish moving forward.


People here argue Armstrong missed the low on the Dow in 2009 yet 2009.3 was a minor turning point on the ECM

 
Anybody who argues against Armstrong is essentially saying that cycles do not exist, that all price movement is random and history does not repeat itself.

There are some people in this blog twho are doing some very time-consuming heavy lifting to decipher the elaborate Armstrong scheme.

Socrates works like the software in the cars involved in the German "Dieselgate" car emissions fraud scandal.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/dieselgate-timeline-germanys-car-emissions-fraud-scandal

Under normal conditions, Socrates produces more failure than success. However, on inspection, it shows 100% success. Even then, historical data is NOT available, so a user without the resources that some of the posters in this thread have (which may be anything like perseverance, time, a long memory and IT skills), may remain clueless. Too difficult to verify anything.

But there is hope. Look at this:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Avoid   Martin Armstrong / Socrates

as well as the other Jewish Pinheads, Broken Clocks and Con Men:

Kernen, Gartman, Prechter, Weiss, Roubini, Kudlow, Reich, Schiller, Altucher, Siegel, Quick, Burnett, Brown, Faber, Schiff, Shilling, Zandi, Stein, Ritholz, Kass, Celente, Link, Sorkin, Santelli, Stansberry, Schaeffer, Whitney, Cramer, Luskin, Nenner, Fisher, JC Parets, Greenberg, Rickards, Pento, Fleckenstein, DeAngelis, Norman, Shactman, Faber, Herera, Pisani

I was relating to Gumbi’s return estimate using MA but the strategies I mentioned aren’t available for online or for sale anyway (because they actually make profits) so no worries about straying off topic.

Ideally yes. Daily moves are noise for Socrates, no way to use Socrates to win here. But recently, the bigger moves were short term, volatility and confused Socrates, creating losses.

Also, do NOT believe Martin Armstrong here! Why?

Follow the money! Why would he be an advocate of longer term trading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/ ?

Because that is the only thing that Socrates supports, the only thing that he can sell his reports into, sell his conferences into. And it takes longer to figure out that Socrates is failing.

But wait ..

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/the-coming-launch-of-socrates/

The intention is to expand the system to intraday. We are in negotiations with a data-provider to make the system live intraday with reversals and timing on an hourly basis.

That will definitely change his mind. If Socrates ever gets there.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I'm the same. Looking for bigger moves with a position which I can hold for several weeks or even months.
I thought Socrates is best at forecasting these bigger moves, as MA mentioned several times that daily reversals and arrays are just noise.

Careful on MA commentary Gumbi... As per the support staff it's not something to rely on and electing weekly reversals haven't proven to be profitable recently...

In saying that - for someone who trades daily I would take a ~400pt movement!

Definitely not a Martin Armstrong topic. MTL4 now you see what you get with what you wrote.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Would you mind sharing some of the sources that produce such returns  or claim to produce such returns?
Like give the website, the name of the service or describe the strategy. thank you.

I’ve seen some stock trading techniques that average 0.5-1% per day but I’m not sure I have the patience to follow something like that. I’m not a day trader either but I’m looking for extremes to correct.

Thanks Gumbi.

The part I don't get is this: "the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance."
What do you mean Armstrong came out and said that? It should be the Socrates system giving clear signals right?

Correct me if I'm wrong:
26951.82 is a daily bullish and as we not elected that daily and because the 8th is a turning point, in combination with declining daily energy, means we might go down. The planned exit is at 26536.32.

To be honest, for me, a 1,5% gain on a trade is a very small profit (I'm not a daytrader).  After Friday's job report and the fact that we are so close to the ATH it does make sense that we move down a few hundred points, so for me this trade is not very convincing. But let's see what happens. I agree with Anonymous that we would need the report.

It is too early to tell. Forecast was based on yearly reversal (close), so there is still a lot of time until the close of this year.