Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 104. (Read 647176 times)

Hi,

The call has already been made for the short trade. There is no Weekly Reversal elected. So the trading decision is published.

I am asking Gumbi to post the two reports that we will need to verify the information that he quotes.

Anything revealing additional information such as more reversals can be cut out. We are not interested in that.

The information we need, such as the forecast arrays, should be in the daily and summary reports published before Friday because the Friday reports are available only after the Friday market close and would be generated / published after the fact, in hindsight. So we need these reports.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

We failed to elect a key weekly bullish reversal but the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance.  Also the 1st of July has been a turning point with the next showing up as the 8th and normally one turning point is followed by the opposite event on the next, on the energy model we are seeing the market making new intraday highs while the energy models are declining which indicates this rally is not sustainable. On the weekly energy model we are seeing the energy peak before the price high which indicates we may be forming a temporary high.  The energy model is very important to understand and helps you to identify when the market is over-bought or over-sold.

Th exit point is the most immediate daily bearish reversal which lies at 26536.32 but we have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.

@Gumbi, maybe you can show a screen dump, so I can see what you're doing and why you would enter this trade.

Many thanks

I’d be curious what the technicals were behind this trade too (with the key being that it’s repeatable).

Okay, thanks. Thought you were gone:)

So, entered the trade because a bullish reversal was not elected? Or a bearish was elected? Or the array's showed a turning point?
Can you please you explain? The thing is that it's not about this specific trade. It's about showing that you can trade according to the reversals and arrays and that it works and it's a repeatable process.

If you can let us know here on the blog.
Looking forward to it!

"Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing."

How do you know this?  It seems like you made this up. Martin's rule simply states, "When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated." Nothing about the reversal system being exhausted.  Gold has been bullish since since August of 2018, so I think the rule could apply.

I'm sorry you think I'm challenging you out of frustration.  I haven't made up my mind yet about Socrates and the reversal system, but I figured I would play devil's advocate in defense of Socrates since this place seems to have become pretty anti-Armstrong.  I'm simply trying to learn.  I'm am "very late" with this because I was trying to stay on your good side to maybe get your data, but since that isn't happening I figured I would bring this point up.  Other members haven't "shredded you to bits", because many of the other members are also anti-Armstrong, so they happily accepted more "proof" that Armstrong is a fraud.  Also I brought quote up after you posted about the Dow bearish reversals as seen here


This is where you made up the rule about the reversal system being exhausted.
 

Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time.

However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing.

There is NO case for reversals of the same direction being generated and immediately elected while other reversals of the same direction nearby are ignored.

Would it not occur to you that after so much noise I made about this case https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429 , linking to it in about every 2nd post, people more competent than you would have shredded the case to bits? Do you think that these people are blind and you are the only one who can see?

I think you are over-estimating your skills here. Where is your logical thinking?

You are also very late with this, so late that it appears that you are just looking for something to vent your frustration. I will ignore you for now, so do not expect any more replies from me.

Read about Revision Signals at

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Bitcoin is not what I would call a macro view, but yes, I agree though he definitely got bitcoin wrong too.

The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states,

"When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction
rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term
Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. "

I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals.  From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish.  This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal.  By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal.  That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move.  If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question  what these reversals actually mean.

Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday?

Definition of "into" : used as a function word to indicate entry, introduction, insertion, superposition, or inclusion.  This means the entry into july, or the few weeks preceding July would have a rally, which was indicated by the weekly bullish reversal on 6/7/19 and 6/21/19

Looks like pretty strong support around the DOW 26750 mark so I'll be curious to see how this trade does.

DanB1 a  live trade as promised I have entered a short position on the Dow at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 area

Please allow for private messages to be sent to you

If a lie is CAUGHT, why is there a need to catch another LIE?  A lie is a lie.  It doesn't matter if it is mixed in with 10000 other true statements, or just 1 other true statement.  If it is a lie, it is a lie.

Some other lying examples:

So Armstrong claimed that his office building is about to be completed, when he is just time-sharing offices with others.

So Armstrong claimed that the energy cost alone for running his super-computer system some $6 million dollar, which is almost 100% capacity of Supercomputer Sequoia, contracted to be built for US government.

So Armstrong claimed that ECM date is accurate down to the day, when he himself claimed that the last ECM date was both 10/7/2015, and 10/1/2015.  So how is that accurate down to the day, when he cannot make up his mind?

So why should anyone trust in somebody who lies on such critical things, such as ECM date, especially when that is what Armstrong known for?

In this particular case, I nee only ONE. yes, ONE. This one:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51666429

If you go to jail for a crime, do you think you need to commit the crime 100 times otherwise you get the Get Out of Jail Free card ?




 

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Armstrong's macro view are "exceptional"  He calls bitcoin to trade lower, and the opposite has happened.  That is just one example of his exceptional macro view.

@Kiwibird, and @over45,

I don't know how many Armstrong followers out there, or how many people are on this forum, but let's just pick a number of 10,000 people, which is probably an under-estimate.

So let's say if you just flip a coin 10,000 times, how many heads do you think you will get?  Well, about 5000.

I can tell you right now, that out of 10,000 people that follow Armstrong, the people who are in green, and who makes quite some profits, will NOT be zero.  In fact, there could be easily 15% of them, or let's say 1500 people.

But making a statement that yes, I'm in green, or that it was good for me, is NOT proving anything at all.

That's just like saying that if you flip coins, you are going to get some heads.


The fundamental problem with Armstrong's stuffs is that he always resorts to cherry-pick the good results.  You need to scrutinize on EVERY SINGLE statement, array, or every metric that Armstrong publishes.

WHY?  Because you need to know whether the model is producing a profit.

If I trade with hindsight, WTF, of course, I know statement #3 out of 100 statements from Armstrong was so correct, and I missed a big profit.  But what about #4 to #100, and #1 and #2?  

You canNOT make any profits from hindsight.  The ONLY way to evaluate statement#101 from Armstrong is to evaluate the profitability of statement #1 to #100, and see if on the average you get a profit.

How else are you going to know whether you should make a trade based on statement#101?


I did my own due diligence, and I have concluded that Armstrong's timing array does NOT work in general.  I will not argue that there are times that his array DID work, but what's most important is whether it works above average to enable you to profit consistently.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/central-banks/rise-in-the-euro-interesting-times-ahead/




Not good, not terrible, Marty
Of course, you could argue about what is "into July". The first few trading days, the first week, the second week, the first half etc. The endless "guessing" of mr. Armstrong just never seems to stop.
Typical Armstrong btw: first a rally, then he's starting to take notice at the intermediate top, blogs about it, then it falls. Marty, just give a heads up before a rally unfolds the next time please.

Do you have anymore evidence of these phantom reversals?  Remember our rule to not make conclusions based on singular observations

I can only imagine how many times others have gone through this exact same scenario (myself included).  Not sure why MA's good at calling the crashes but it's those sorts of calls that still hold my attention to this day.  Overall it has caused me to be a better trader (through self reliance) but it definitely sucked to go through when it hits you in the wallet via lost opportunity (I lost a solid 3x-5x by sitting out that move).  Forced me to really buckle down, study the markets intensely and hone my skills so that's what I've been doing for a few years now.  

I'm game for an offline chat if folks are so inclined.

Best traders I know usually leave something on the table in exchange for locking in profits, I'd say job well done.