Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 129. (Read 647176 times)

"If you penetrate a reversal and then FAIL to elect it, this typically signal a move back in the opposite direction."

For what I have seen this is not the case, especially when there are Directional changes or Panic cycles. What I have seen happen is that price will penetrate 2 or 3 reversal but only 1 of them and the next day the other reversals will be elected. So have a look at the currencies, they are very precise and when a reversal holds it will often be within a few pips, if it penetrates the reversal, in my experience, it means price is likely to continue even if the penetrated reversal is not elected that same day. As I mentioned before, Directional changes are usually present when this happens.

I don´t know why he wrote it because if you follow price and reversals you will quickly see that it is just not true, if price stops at a reversal within a few pips and there is a DC or a turning point that day/week whatever, that is when price will likely revers, as he always says, time is then up.

 

Yes exactly seeing the market penetrate a reversal and close above usually indicates a move in the opposite direction. directional changes tend to be strong moves in a certain direction so the Dow really needed to at least elect that minor to suggest it goes down further.  Do not expect absolute precision with an index regarding the reversals the Dow did come close to its next major daily bearish. At that time the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were testing their major daily bearish reversals with many more reversals just below indicating strong levels of support.

 
It really is the reversal system first, then the array and last is the GMW which is usually wrong especially when trading the reversals in reverse. The GMW is only pattern recognition nothing more.  With the GMW it is more accurate on the longer term trends than the shorter term so monthly and up.

elected Reversals can still provide support or resistance at times but have ultimately have lost their ability to provide a buy or sell signal so essentially they are done once elected.

 We came close to the next bullish reversal 26535 on the Dow so I suspect the directional change may be to the downside but cannot be sure this time since due to a major daily bullish reversal being elected.

That would mean going down again if previous directional change turned up?

How do you identify turning points? I have seen in manuals that one just has to look for highest bar but on each array different date is the highest bar.

It is generated from intraday price action (low). Generated and elected in the same period.

Does any one know why or how :

The Dow elects a daily Maj bullish reversal on Friday @ 26,424.86 when this reversal wasn't on the table the previous day, the closest daily bullish reversal was 26,602.43 ?
Thanks

Strike Eagle
Just trying to my head around this, the fact that the Dow elected 2 bearish reversals, major and minor is of less consequence since it penetrated 26212 and closed above ? I guess if I had known the reversals of the Nasdaq and S&P I would've expected the move today, unfortunately I only have the Dow subscription.
The daily GNW of the Dow today seems not of much use when it contradicts the bullish closes of all the indices as you described.
Do you follow past elected reversals for any length of time or once elected they're done?

Thanks for your explanations

key reversal points by Armstrong
"Most of the time when one level is penetrated, the market price activity will continue to the next available Reversal."
"If you penetrate a reversal and then FAIL to elect it, this typically signal a move back in the opposite direction."

Minor reversals are certainly valid but can be overpowered by majors. the Dow tested and penetrated its minor daily bearish reversal yesterday at 26212 and came close to the next major bearish but did not elect it and the array showed a directional change today(Dow,Nasdaq) the Nasdaq and S&P 500 came close to their daily bearish reversals but did not elect them so there was only one direction the market could go and that was up.

I find that directional changes are very accurate and usually indicates that whatever direction we are in should reverse but this will be confirmed/denied by the reversals. we had a directional change in gold, silver and crude today where crude on Thursday elected 4 bearish reversals(minors) penetrated the 5th and closed right on it which is not an election confirming the directional change was to the upside. Silver penetrated its 4th daily
 bearish reversal(minor) on Thursday and tested the 5th daily bearish reversal but for the close electing none indicating the directional change was to the upside.

 If there are big gaps between reversals major to minor those levels of support and resistance tend to be quite strong and you can buy against them with more confidence.


 we have a directional change on the Dow and the S&P 500 for Monday the 6th

sorry for the confusion, my post May 1st wasn't specific. May 1st the Dow elected a Daily Maj Bearish reversal.
Yesterday the Dow elected 2 Daily Bearish reversals one Maj @ 26,397.18 and one Minor @ 26,310.27

How did you conclude it is bullish?

Thanks Bike 

I am currently reviewing Socrates User Manual;

'While not a specific trading or investment recommendation tool, the GMW gives members an opportunity to identify new potential trends forming in a given Covered Market – helping take note of those worthy of conducting further research.
Once an opportunity is identified through the GMW, we then recommend studying the text analysis available for that Covered Market as this will give you contextual insights into market activity and trends our models are picking up on (while Basic Members are limited to Summary Analysis, we recommend Plus Members focus on Detailed Analysis text, and Pro Members focus on Premium Analysis text). 
Start by evaluating the longest time frame (*Monthly) Arrays and Reversals and work your way down to the shorter time frames (Weekly and Daily) to find the most notable potential Turning Points. For example, if you see a Monthly Array where the Aggregate bar stands out, then look at the corresponding Weekly Array to see if a specific week stands out in the same month with the highest Aggregate bar peak. If you have identified a Monthly and Weekly Array that align, then look at the Daily to see if a particular day(s) also show the highest Aggregate bar peak within the same week and month you've identified. (Please note though, we highly recommend focusing primarily on Monthly Array time frames, supported by Weekly Arrays within that same month. While Daily Arrays are informative, we do not recommend individuals try to exactly time an investment or trade to the day).
When the GMW and all three Array time trends are lining-up, and you've identified an attractive potential Turning Point and Reversal points supported by the corresponding Premium Analysis text, this represents the highest probability of a potential trading or investment opportunity according to our models. But always manage your risk, and work with a Financial Advisor'

The problem for everyone is the dollar in 2011 was not the same dollar as considered and pricing assets in 2008.    We know it massively changed over this time but dont have an exact way to measure or account for this change.    However its fair to assume dollar has been devalued on a regular basis for many years, increasingly aligned to debt and short term rates over long term fundamentals and thats a deliberate policy because its cheap and it works to finance deficits.



This chart at least looks in the region of matching that prediction but unless he references gold often its hard to say his estimates were right.    Its not complex to calculate worth outside dollar by other standards and over time it will vary and give a differnt perspective so I wonder why thats not done more often

Marty from January 9th  


Martin Armstrong: wrong, wrong, wrong, very tendentious statements all the time. Misses the big move (december 2018) once again. Has an complete obsession about the (utterly boring) EU-elections coming up.

Hello Marty, we already have populist governments in Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, etc. The market already freaking knows that. Is it news that anti-EU parties are going to win a larger share? What a thing that his computer seems to sniff those things out. Of course, May could be a corrective month, but an economic and financial meltdown...

bike front

The dow did run back to the reversal this morning  surpassed it by 10 ticks went sideways for 30 min then sold off remainder of the day.
 35 tick stop above elected reversal of 2644.52 returned 7:1 risk /reward, covering the trade around noon-approx 255 points
Dow elected another daily R today, curious to see if we get follow through tomorrow
kinda impressed or just a fluke

https://www.screencast.com/t/JxJgGEDP5dX

GMW showing Quarterly yellow (potential high/low) with significant emboldened text POSSIBLE IMPORTANT LOW.  So in my guesstimate i don't think the Slingshot will go below that number 21712.53.
What does the GMW say for MONTH Dec 2018?  Should be YELLOW with significant text relating to an IMPORTANT LOW too.
I think Slingshot prior to the jump up to a new level because he's been talking about the possible upcoming Channel Move - but I am guessing. Play it by the numbers and interlace with time.  That's because forecasts that 'never happened', failed with time and the forecast is moved onto the next cycle in time.

Yes, I think most telling is that (hilariously written I will add) Quora post that I linked to above.

The scenario that guy explains is what a lot of MA followers can relate to. It is a very confusing world and some guidance is ideal. Saves a lot of time and having a "trusted" sage who is underground is incredibly seductive and appealing.

However, once you peel yourself away from the admiration and hysteria, then dig into when MA has been wrong, suddenly this seductive little world comes crashing down and he appears no more accurate or insightful than any other global markets analyst with 40+ years' experience under their belt.

The fact MA explained Socrates is basically NEVER wrong, otherwise his whole model is undone, and yet claimed in October 2008 that 2011 would see a lower low than 2008, while totally dismissing the buying opportunity of the decade in Mar 2009 - not ignoring the DOW 30,000 prediction for 2015 - more or less kills it for me.

Someone else on this board mentioned the fractions of days in the year e.g. this could be expressed as 365.25 or 365 or otherwise would have to be worked out to an even bigger fraction for greater accuracy, plus pi itself (how many decimals), or the 8.6 cycle etc. That is related to my question to Marty himself: if the machine is based on pooling in vast volumes of data (some 32,000 data points), surely the more data = more accurate predictions. And that is infinite. Thus, the machine must NOT be that accurate as even tens of thousands of data points is barely scratching the surface when you think about every variable in society that could move markets or start/end empires.

If something is out by .25 days, over 43 years (half of 10 cycles of 8.6) that is 10 days - quite a wide margin of error for something that allegedly calls things "to the day". Extrapolate that back 6,000 years and the error of margin increases to over 4 years. That also depends on what your starting point is: the start of the first civilisation, the start of fractional banking, the start of the Great Depression...

At his Olrando WEC 2018 he explained the AU stock market would enter a bullish run 2020-2024 (along with CA) owing to a boom in commodities.

With that, I would expect an increase in AUD since confidence in the economy would increase and globally more would be holding the currency.

However, see my above post about predictions post-2015.

I am waiting for Jan 2020 to come to pass. If nothing happens, I am calling BS on his forecasts and will only read his work for an alternative view on socioeconomics, or may even just dismiss his content altogether and spend more time educating myself through official channels and more "trusted" resources.

nice analysis trulycoined.

I'm especially annoyed by his constant "economy is falling off a cliff" commentary while numbers say completely the opposite.

I have been digging for more contrarian views of MA and have found some real gold dust. I must admit I still don't know what to make of him and this was really only after attending his WEC 2018 of all things that made me begin questioning his claims, plus "pi day" in November 2018. That was built up to with some fanfare and it passed by like any other normal month.

Digging up MA's EARLIER claims is where it gets interesting. His more recent post-2015 stuff is where it begins to look a bit dodgy. Also, I have been fascinated that he uses his website as a means of controlling your perception of him. No real social media or press presence. That is perhaps something to raise suspicion. In terms of older articles, first this:

https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-think-of-Martin-Armstrong-and-the-documentary-The-Forecaster

Where a well articulated answer that even included scans of reports at the time (2008) correctly called a bottom in the markets - even though it was published AFTER that event and then forecast 2011 would see new lows. That was via his machine/Socrates, not MA's personal opinion. So clearly then, the machine is flawed:



If he was 100% legit, why doesn't he address this or even LOG all predictions/dates in a public file or on his website so they can be scrutinised or he can "defend" them when they don't occur?

Additional opinions here: https://www.realistnews.net/Thread-martin-armstrong-adds-17-years-to-his-doom-prediction-2015-75-to-2032-95

Major calls between 2008-2015, via MA's "model":
▪ Called the DOW to be at 30,000 by 2015. Never happened.
▪ Forecast US property would peak then crash from 2015 onwards. Never happened.
▪ Called another significant date on "pi day" in Nov 2018. Nothing happened.
▪ Never spotted the "sale of a lifetime" in the stock market Mar 2009. Why not?
▪ Forecast May 2019 would see a major economic storm erupt. Pending.
▪ Forecast Jan 2020 would see a global economic crisis emerge. Pending.

Article in De Welt 3 May 2015.
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article140453591/US-Finanzprophet-Armstrong-sagt-Ende-des-Euro-voraus.html

MA explains:

"Be sure to keep your fingers off government bonds. They are hopelessly overrated. Here it will come to the big crash. My model predicts October 1st."

That never happened. Thus, this argument that the significance of 2015.75 was just that, is clearly MA and his cultish following backtracking. In his own words, his model predicted a "big crash" on that day. It never happened. instead it was explained as a "reversal".

Days later in that same paper (7 may 2015), MA makes ANOTHER prediction:
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/geldanlage/article140550440/Es-wird-zu-einem-grossen-Crash-kommen.html

When asked "What does your model say?" (about the future):

"The big crash is coming. 2017 or 2018"


Erm... That never happened either.

So that is now two occasions where the machine was wrong and also in the space of four days, MA has given three alternative dates to the "big crash" and even worse, has been (without realising?) inconsistent in when the crash is coming. His machine allegedly predicts major events "to the day", so why so ambiguous about this alleged crash?

"2017 or 2018"

I could predict that yet I make no claims to working out the inner workings of the universe nor having an AI supercomputer I've been developing since the 1970s.

Month's later at €2,500 a ticket, this happened:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/berlin-world-economic-conference-nov-28th-29th/

In Martin's own words, I am indeed beginning to connect the dots!...

In another article that same vintage year (2015) for MA:
https://www.lavanguardia.com/lacontra/20150625/54432509475/la-contra-martin-armstrong.html

"In October of this year will begin a debt crisis of governments (historically, none has survived) that will reach the high point in 2017"

The high point never occured since global gov debt has continued rising - currently $244trn.

Machine was wrong again.

Another interesting contrarian read:
https://dev.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/meeting-martin-armstrong/


In this article:
https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/is-martin-armstrongs-debt-crisis-upon-us-6299991

MA is quoted as saying:
“The fact that we have the stock markets crashing into the 2015.75 turning point rather than making a major high is indicative of the future we should expect to unfold”

The DOW actually spiked into October, fell by the same amount in Dec that same year and the rest is history. This "crash" and "major high" never happened.

Also, in the book Not My Grandfather's Wall Street published 2015, there is a chapter titled:

Marty Problems

it sheds a little more light on what he was doing at the time (circa 1999). In effect, he is still doing today what he was doing back then, only he wasn't registered with the relevant authorities to give advice on futures to institutional investors. I suppose now his client base is retail, he is free to do what he pleases (different rules & regs) and can still charge high sums for analysis that is no much better than the next guy. His just has a LOT more theatre and storytelling sat behind it.

----

As others have mentioned on here, I wonder if the Socrates/pi model is just as a flawed as any other quant theory at any major financial institution, but it also hides or is linked to incriminating him for any crime he may have committed all those years ago?

Thus to the problem: if the authorities were to get their hands on his "machine", he goes to jail for a long time. If he keeps up this charade that the machine is in fact some major discovery/his IP, and therefore will not forfeit it to the authorities. To maintain this charade, he then pushes out "forecasts" from said machine, and that also explains why post 2015 he has been wrong on so many things.

In his own words, he "does not have much time left on this planet" and is thinking about his "posterity". It isn't too much a stretch to think he is using Socrates to get his "own back" on the state and if that means screwing retail investors out of cash, well so be it.

It is after all classic bait and switch sales tactics that uses the fact, fact, BS trickle of content. This creates a lot of confusion where his fans can continue pointing to all the times he was right or said something logical, but dismiss the BS as a "reversal" or turning point rather than anything significant.

I still think he is interesting for an alternate perspective on socioeconomics.

But I am increasingly sceptical of his machine/Socrates predicting the future. if even Google/FB cannot nail AI with all of their money, resources and connection, I seriously doubt some former convict who has lied about buying office space in St Pete (it was a virtual office) and hasn't coded a decent website has nailed it either.

Additionally, think of all the electric/computing power needed for an AI machine to forecast events decades into the future to an accuracy of on the day. Using his argument of everything is connected and the laws of physics, it doesn't add up. The latter would mean VAST quantities of energy use unless of course, maybe he did have a machine up until he was incarcerated and it no longer exists.

Now all his "forecasts" are made up or from memory, hence why he keeps calling things wrong ever since he was released from prison? That assumes he had such a machine in the first place...

bikefront

as of yesterday's close, 5 updated reversals, 2 regular, 2 Maj and one Maj double plus the Maj elected from yesterday.

https://www.screencast.com/t/GB7ckZ8v

What is the forecast for Australia dollars ??