Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 135. (Read 647054 times)

Those dates are NOT "their".  Those dates are directly from Armstrong.  No one made that up.  He SAID those dates himself.

I posted links from web archive, because there is no way for Armstrong to delete them and alter the truth.  You can remove the web archive part, and see it directly from Armstrong's website.

Apparently, you did NOT read the third link, directly from Armstrong.  Armstrong SAID that it IS October 7th 2015.

And in my older posts, I also made an argument that Armstrong's ECM numbers & model can NOT be correct at all by the simplest logic.

Based on Armstrong's math, ECM dates are every 8.6 year, and you can sprinkle around even more dates by using 2.15, and 1.075 years.  And given ANY starting/periodic date of ECM, take 2015.75 for example, you will find out that the decimal parts of the year will repeat rather quickly.  For example, after 10 ECM cycles, it's original date plus 86 years.  Since every year is always 365 or 366 days, ALL of ECM dates whether it's at half-cycle or quarter cycle or not, they will ALWAYS fall on 2 potential dates (355 or 366 days per year), plus any cyclic repeats of the decimal parts in between.

So believing in Armstrong's ECM model and his 8.6 year is essentially saying that ALL historical/future important economic dates are ALWAYS occurring on October 1st, and variants of it.  I'm not going to show you the simple math of adding 0.6 to 2015.75, and give you all of the other 4 variants.  But you get the idea.

Okay, let me repeat that again.  ALL historical and future important economic dates are ALWAYS going to occur on 5 dates (or potentially 10 if multiplying to 366 gives you another date).

That is falsehood staring right back in your eyes.

But you know what, Armstrong won't even blink when he states that.

Every single date on their is not based on the 8.6 year structure how could you have possibly missed this.

2011.45… 06/18/11 is wrong the actual date is June 13/14th

2013.6… 08/12/13 is wrong the actual date is August 7th

2015.75… 10/07/15 is wrong the actual date is October 1st

2017.9… 12/01/17 is wrong the actual date is November 24/25th

etc etc etc

You have made a basic error that’s the ECM model in 2.15 year intervals so of course the dates are different, can't you read the title?

the 8.6yr wave breaks down into 3 individual alternating  waves with a time duration of 2.15 and 1.075 year
periods for 1 leg. We refer to these as "long" and "short" legs(https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/7219-2/)
So for the start of that wave we have 2011.45 + 2.15 = 2013.60 + 1.075 = 2014.675 + 1.075 = 2015.75 (half cycle 4.3 years) hope you can see your mistake now.

The ECM date has always been 2015.75 which is October 1st. 2015.75 = 365 x .75 = 273.75 days into the year which is October 1st 2015.

By the way, notice how "convenient" it is for Armstrong to state things like his ECM was "peak of government" when government bonds did NOT peak on the ECM date, and ALSO his ECM picked the start of the date of "World War 3"?

You know, it's really whatever that fits.  And did you know that Earth is big, and everyday there are so many things happening, significant or not?  And did you know that if you use the same logic, you could probably ALSO link the insignificant "starting" events too?

And wow, if I or anybody does that, could he or she become a great "forecaster" when in fact, he or she is just a smart "trend observer"?

So was it peak of government??  I think Armstrong just threw in WW3, just in case.

But the FACT is TLT (or treasury bonds) nor the European bonds made a peak on ECM date.  The bond prices would have been scientifically the best measurement for government "confidence".  Since Armstrong couldn't use that, he resorted using something that he did NOT define explicitly, and he thinks that he does science??

So I'm going to say that my posts on this forum has made a peak attention for the next ECM 8.6 years.  Even though I could potentially measure and define "attention" by page views, I would just leave at that, since if I define the metric exactly, somebody could easily prove what I said was false.  And believe it or not, my statement is TRUE, because I just stated in the Armstrong's fashion.

My personal opinion on Armstrong's reversal system is that it's more like support/resistance from charting.  I (or anybody) can easily do that myself from the charts, and I will not subscribe just for that, ESPECIALLY when Armstrong does NOT give you any actual buy/sell signals.

If you can't SHOW it for whatever reasons, then most likely you CANNOT do it.  Honestly, only an Armstrong-like person would ever say anything like "made money every single time".  For Martin Armstrong, he is ALWAYS right, and nothing is random, and his ECM/AI computer can NEVER be wrong, and ECM is always down to the "very day", even when October 1st is NOT equal to October 7th.

That only happens when a liar told so many lies, that he cannot even remember his own previous lies.

You said:
"I [you] made money every single time".

I dare you to SHOW your trades on this forum, with realtime trades.  Post your initial buy/sell, and explain HOW you will exit your trade using the Armstrong's reversal systems.  You MUST also post the trade size or percentage of your portfolio along with the trade.

The reason that you MUST explain your exit strategy is to prevent you "virtually betting" on very high volatile stock, which given sufficient amount of time, the stock price almost always will go to a profitable point, at which you can "post a virtual profit".

And the reason that you MUST post the trade size is that using the oldest trick in the book, you can exponentially increase your bet size, and all you need is a single random profitable (last) trade to recover ALL of the prior losses, and make your claim of a "profit" at the end, when that is simply impractical/impossible for ANY trading firm.  (For anyone who doesn't understand, you can bet $1, and then $2, and then 2X more every subsequent trade.  Assuming that trading odds is exactly 50% for every trade, and rewards is exactly double (almost like casino betting on black/red on roulette except there is also a green color, eventually, you can earn back $1 profit.  Then you start over again.)



"every single time", you claimed!!!  Unheard of on this planet Earth!!!!


Please SHOW me for 15 consecutive profitable (>5% gain) trades.  Words are empty.  Only profits are real.

Now, someone is resorting to personal attacks on me.  Read the following links, directly from Armstrong's website.

Armstrong CLAIMED in the first link that ECM picked "the very day".  In the second link, Armstrong indicated that ECM was September 30/October 1st, 2015.

1. https://web.archive.org/web/20170513235427/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/did-the-ecm-pick-the-target-to-the-day-being-syria/

which links to

2. https://web.archive.org/web/20170514003826/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/todays-turning-point-on-ecm/


However, Armstrong has LONG claimed that ECM date (before going into jail) WAS October 7th, 2015.  This SAME exact article was available at MANY other public websites.  I'm giving you the PAGE directly from Armstrong's site:
3. https://web.archive.org/web/20190210014758/https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/1999-2/the-business-cycle-and-the-future/



I studied Armstrong for decades.  He has been claiming that his ECM is "down to the day" several times.  Now, tell me how is October 1st, the same as October 7th, and HOW in the world can that be the "very day".  So if in just one cycle of 3140 days or about 8.6 years, there CAN be 6 days difference, which is 0.2% difference, remember how Armstrong kept saying that his ECM model goes all the way back to ancient time, including 26 million years for extinction cycle??  In just 2 ECM cycles, you could potentially have 12 days difference.  Or in 10 ECM cycles, that will be 60 day difference.  Tell me HOW IN THE WORLD can his ECM cycle be accurate down to the "very day" as Armstrong has claimed.



As bikefront said, you either takes the whole thing from him, or you don't take anything.  The student can't become the teacher.  I would have been actually totally fine, if Armstrong has said that his ECM has 0.2% uncertainty, like any real scientists would have done.  But NO.  Instead, he keeps repeating his ECM myth of down to the "very day".

The moment that you start adding your own personal filter on what will work from him, and what will not work from him, you are introducing subjectiveness in your analysis.  As I said, human memory always registered the most memorable events.  You will only remember whatever he said that works, but not all the other "little things" that would have wreck your portfolio over the years.

And the problem is that if I say a million crazy things, the probability of me being actually right on one of those crazy projections is actually very high, simply due to the number of forecast attempts.

high 2916.06 today
not so fast... 


Thanks.

The Reversals tell us the direction and maps out the market into areas of key support and resistance.

  In the report Martin said we are still consolidating and that we may retest support but to simply play it by the reversals.
It appears we may retest support since Armstrong has said he doesn't see the market breaking out at this time but that will only be confirmed if we begin to elect daily and weekly bearish reversals on the Dow which are quite high now, we have a daily bearish at 26370.81(major) with a gap to the next daily bearish at 26122.30(major)  it seems we may form a temporary high today with tomorrow being a directional change unless we elect a major daily bullish at 26529.36 with the next major at the 26700 area.

Armstrong gave great trading advice on his private blog not so long ago which applies here.

"So NEVER NEVER NEVER Anticipate. Be dispassionate about the market for remember it is always going to be your own EMOTIONS that get the best of your judgement. ONLY trade on Reversals!!!!! Always let the market PROVE its direction. It is always the master of deception."

You are the few who knows Martin report .
What can you make of his report recently ? Is  stock correction coming again ?  Temporary high ...

LMAO . I think that's just called gambling, but your guess is as good as mine

The temporary high is in !   HUGE bullish pattern on VIX, and bearish butterfly on DJIA.  Confirming Armstrongs view.

I am going short here guys.. I will give Armstrong credit where credit is due if he is right at this juncture.   This week is daily reversal and weekly reversal.  He does not see new highs until 2020.  I am short. And long volatility

marijuana stocks plunging. GE looks like wants to retest lows...

GS weak.

get ready for the retest guys

The level of sophistication of this model is beyond any human capabilities so you are simply engaging in child's play and I have seen your trades you are a scalper/swing trader you don't have any confidence in your position.
both you are MA_talk continue to bash Armstrong but you should really be at his feet in the trades he has given us over the years and you should of made of fortune by now but that clearly is not the case, you need to go back and read every single private blog post and you soon realize how infallible Armstrong has been over the years. I wonder how long you can continue to delude yourself.

You see I actually traded just about every private blog post where a reversal was mentioned and then elected and I made money every single time. I know for a fact that total random price movement does not exist.


 MA_talk is so uninformed about Armstrong and way too emotional to be taken seriously its sad just because he lost a fortune and now need's someone to blame, he goes on perpetuating lies and he has misunderstood so much such as how the ECM even works the numbers have been in place for decades and cannot be changed he is only demonstrating his own stupidity, also he has doesn't understand what 2015.75 was all about  2015.75 = the PEAK IN GOVERNMENT. It marked the change in trend where people will start to disbelieve government on a grand scale.

If you had read anonymint's posts and all of his following profiles it would be clear to you that he was not- IamNotBack and UnoctaniumTesticles or something like that. He also has a steem account that he occasionally blogs on.

Don't get me wrong, there are shills and sock puppets everywhere. But I wouldn't make a comment because maybe anonymint wasn't. It would literally be beneath him to shill MA on an obscure internet forum.

Is his recent private blog available to basic subscribers or pro ? Wanted to subscribe to check out basic subscribers content.

Looks like Armstrong posted a new private blog for the US Share Market. Anyone care to post it? I mostly just care about the arrays.

maybe maybe not.. we will never know