Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 138. (Read 647176 times)

[Armstrong does not believe in time factor. His timing is off sometimes. Even some of the best market trader I know is not able to forecast the market correct ly at time . the reason is because there is much manipulation cause by Central banker . But the larger trend is always important to watch .to trade the market required more than Martin report.tgat is why those who can earn money by selling report always prefer to sell than doing the trade themselves  there is always the risk of losing .
Since the government have step in ,the market is no longer a free market .when have you heard of Central banker buying up toxi bonds ...then toxi shares and then buying up blue Chip to support the market 20 years ago ??


quote author=MA_talk link=topic=1082909.msg50270713#msg50270713 date=1553269912]

Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.


[/quote]

Look at how Armstrong is shifting the goalpost from Feb panic month to March, then May, then July.

I "used to" agree that Martin is good at calling major high and lows.  But upon much closer examination, if you keep track of his daily/weekly/monthly calls, you will find that he actually achieve this calling POST-event.  His comments keeps shifting based on the market.  The market is always right obviously.  As long as his comments track CLOSE ENOUGH to how market shifts, given readers' short-term memory & confirmation bias, he can seemingly achieve that he "actually" called the peak & turns in the markets, when he in fact NEVER called it out AHEAD of time.

The golden proof to refute my argument above would have been that majority (much more than 50% obviously, or else you just flip a coin) if the subscribers profiting from his call on the market turning, by placing trades AHEAD of the time.

You know, a survey was done here, and that didn't show such.  In fact, given my own personal long records trading with Armstrong's calls, I simply know that Armstrong does NOT call the markets AHEAD of the time.

MOST of the time, what happens is that when his calls go wrong, and he does NOT admit it, but instead whis-wash through it, or blurs through it, or blog on something else for awhile to get your attention away, or he puts out all the reversal levels, and claims that markets showed strength or weakness, and so his model/computer is right, etc.

Well, F*&%, but my trade has already lost 15%+ after Armstrong made the wrong call (and of course, ALL of his calls are ambiguous, and so you cannot blame and pin him down either.)  Now that he is moving on to the "next phase" of market calls, but I'm STUCK with my trading loss.


Just tell me, if majority of the subscribers are making good money based on his calls, and I will agree that he is a great forecaster.

Think about it.  If Armstrong is doing a great job for his subscribers, why would this thread be 250+ pages long?
If Armstrong is doing a great job calling the markets for his subscribers, the ONLY comments that I should see on this thread is that

"Stupid, just pay the subscription money, and you will make 100X over the money that you paid into Socrates/Armstrong."

Instead, this thread is constantly about what exactly Armstrong said in his blog or private blog, because NO ONE understands with clarity what he is forecasting.

Yet, of course, everyone seemed to be bewildered and enamored by Armstrong's extensive knowledge, etc.  Again, I AGREE that Armstrong is an excellent economist and programmer.  But that does NOT equate automatically to accurate forecast.

There is a danger of shorting the peak around 2023 period. The market might not be there when it collapse .
Just take note. There is a danger of market freeze during that period and all money cannot be withdrawn from ..
Don't be so happy to short the greatest peak in the history without knowing this risk .

Thanks. Martin is good at calling major high and lows .
His energy model and economic model can forecast events that lead to major change in the market
Direction and that is his value.
His forecast on Europe is spot on and I suspect euro will collapse first.
His reversal are quite good. Thank s for the summary below.
He does not use time model by gann. But I can see that a high in 2019 will produce a correction year in
2020 .2021 is a low and then I suspect 2022 is the slingshot move for dow Jones .2023 is the peak cycle for stock.
That is according to time factor model by gann.
My sentiments dow will reach near 36000 level  by 2023 .but 2020 is a bear year. It should have a sizable correction of 25 percent.
Post any reversal here as they are important.

Same, I found a pretty good technique that works for me and I'm sticking to it. My goal is to make around 8-10% overall return per month and I have been succeeding. With compounding I should be a millionaire in 3 years haha. All jokes aside I think I do much better on my own and other people's opinion just cloud my judgement and I'm better off without it.

My interpretation (based on March 19 & 13 posts) as of now:

DOW is in the consolidation period but it needs to go down to create a bear trap for a slingshot move.
May - low, July - high, early 2020 - possible bear trap, then - up

Ok, so the private blog post from March 19 is not very useful IMO.

I can summarize main points:
1. Nothing suggests a major crash
2. Does not look like we are ready for new highs
3. Going into recession until early 2020
4. May and July are two targets. The plausible scenario is DOW low in May and high in July. No specific numbers but we may not even elect a weekly bearish to make that low.
5. Preparing for a slingshot move. Bear trap first - majority needs to be wrong - and then quick upside move.

No arrays or numbers in this post at all.

Well, hopefully someone generous on this forum will post the Private Blogs. They DID have some specific numbers and analysis of the arrays which, when I had access, were helpful in conjunction with my OWN system (Bike would agree).

Funny how he's giving Socrates credit for the Biogen drop - but he did clarify that the GMW is to be used with reversals and arrays and whatever else you're doing to give you more conviction with your trade. Maybe we expect too much from Socrates - there will NEVER be a perfectly working computer that says "buy here sell here". If his system is a good TOOL then he should market it as such. It surely isn't the end all be all and from what I've heard/seen it isn't some magical perfect system...which brings into question his claim that he went to jail because "the government wanted the source code".

He may seem like a sleazy salesman from NJ, but he apparently has influence around the world, not everywhere but in some places, and I do believe he is extremely gifted in economics, history, and law. Just not 100% buying that Socrates is predicting the world and it's worth $150/mo for vague analysis and shifting goalposts.

Anyway, since we don't have the private blogs, I'm curious what you guys think is going on in the market. I was doing chart studies today and see a double bottom basically everywhere about the end of Oct and the beginning of Jan. Now we're reaching serious breakout levels. I'm wondering if hard BREXIT will actually happen and the melt-up is the foreign money buying shares. Today, Apple went up nearly 4%. SOXL is about to retest ATHs. Foreigners buying US stocks, I'd assume, would go after the big names and the big tech companies first.

Should we be buying tech/semis and ride this wave? Is this what the Private Blog was about? Maybe foreigners are pouring into the US in anticipation of the May elections and the bleak outlook for the EU? Or, conversely, are we being faked out by the surge we've seen lately?

Look forward to your insights and please keep this board alive. For the love of God can someone PLEASE give us the Private posts?

Sorry then .does anyone can help to post his private blog on us market ?

Me neither now that he no longer offers a free trial lol. How you been though? Its been a while since you stopped visiting Reddit wall street. How's the trading going?

Buy the dip is already in the price, its the default meta.     Thats the hazard that the market is complacent and asleep to risks occurring just like 2008 was resulting from that bred attitude with government subsidy on housing debt.   Now the majority of housing debt is government backed so its far worse
 
Euro crash would result similarly, fake markets organised to meet politics not capitalism.    EU has been organising fake pricing in farming commodities for decades and obviously its proud of that.   Now its also done that with bonds, the pricing is written in not part of a market process.    Its easy to see that the tide will not follow (because global commerce is larger then EU) what humans desire, if we get any natural effect in markets it will be to correct this bad debt.   Ultimately the worth of money will fail, the Swiss abandoned an attempt to link to the EURO because its so far from a stable value relative to reality but vs dollar and its own qe and deficits it can continue.

  Euro collapse ties into a higher dollar and my current guess is Dollar index does not make a new high to exceed the post election high, we should be seeing a negative trend over a decade I think and the rise to alternatives; some speculate this helps crypto gold etc.   It might also just mean commodities cost more

Its part of why I expect Brexit is the correct way for UK or any country to separate and put a firewall into contagion risk on going in markets.   Short term it appears to be negative but insurance is always a cost till its required then its essential

[quote author=bikefront

In a downturn .money flows into safety heaven first .in a downturn follow by a collapse in government then the money will flow towards the private side .

link=topic=1082909.msg50235308#msg50235308 date=1553052391]

What I don't understand is why he has cycles down to the day, and how. I can totally buy the idea that based on historical inflation/deflation rates, interest, gold, etc correlating in a particular way since ancient times around the world from different markets will also be the same in the present day, and in the future. And this information can be used by a computer to organize and correlate them, and so on. But these records of coins and tablets of grain prices and such are not enough to pick out things to the daily level. Yearly okay, monthly would be tough, weekly is a real stretch, and then daily? I can only suppose that would be based on Socrates' information from recent times, as there is incomplete information of the ancient past. Perhaps extrapolating and 'averaging out' incomplete information could be what he is doing but that wouldn't be so accurate consistently. If only he would say when he is wrong, roll out his research, and maybe even make it crowdsourced, and bring it out to the world. I can understand the Reversals- they seem to work most of the time (I did not do a thorough test on this) but it still doesn't explain the cyclical timing attempts. I wouldn't be surprised if the CIA tried to steal it-they did do ESP research as well as various other arcane phenomena.

Socrates does have many cycle readings on many timeframes for a ton of markets, so there is for sure some kind of computer that does it- the question is, how good is this computer? I'd also like to see this language computer he had mentioned several times.

I do not have the Pro level but I am in contact with someone who does and although this person has not yet fully learned to use it, there are certain forecast setups that seem to do well (consistent profit). There is not a great enough sample size in the results yet, so we will just wait and see in the future how it goes.
[/quote]

Bikefront

Can you post the private blog on 19 March US share market. I think this is an important message for discussion .this.

Can anyone post or summarize the recent private blog post?

Martin is a very smart person who maximizes the amount of profits.  It is like the technical textbook publishers or pharmaceutical companies.  Exactly the same book and content (or drug) is sold much cheaper in Asia (or Mexico/Canada), but at a totally different price level in USA.

So he has ALL different price levels from the cheap lowest level of monthly subscriptions, all the way to the most expensive conference, to cater all different people with different levels of financial abilities for payment.

For him, it's just business.

Bikefront, I agree with most of what you said including:
some of his work should be in economic textbooks, and
he is well-connected.

BUT that does NOT change anything on all of his past "forecast" failures, or the very strong possibilities that he has NO real AI that has any forecasting accuracy, but some rudimentary program that spits out meaningless sentences given some recent market history/chart.

Don't forget what all subscribers and what we all want here: ACCURATE and unambiguous FORECAST.

I have always agreed that Armstrong has really good economic insights, and that he is very likely a really good programmer and trader, and that he is very smart, and possibly well-connected.

But using those to argue that his forecasts "may" be good, is similar to that you have just puked from poisoned food, but you still argue that because the restaurant is located at the best district, and at the city which is most famous for best food, that the poisoned food is just an illusion.  That's just not what we want to find out here , whether "the city is most famous for best food".

Look at the FACTS, and focus on the most important question.

Also, why does Armstrong ever need to make up readers' comments?  Why such a person likes him has any needs for that?  Some detective thinking is required.  You won't find out the real truth, if you don't check the tiniest inconsistency.  And unfortunately for him, 8.6 can never be made to equal to 8.615, despite his repeated claims that his ECM is accurate "down to the day".

It is ready a shameless for Martin to charge different for private blog .he should have given them free to all levels of subscription.

Do you have the latest private blog/arrays by any chance?

Ok so did I miss the 'trade of the century'?  Seems like the market just wants to keep going up in a straight line

Exactly where is the entry point on this huge trade and where is the stop loss

Nigel Farage to Address the WEC in Rome May 3rd & 4th

That is a big deal. It suggests that MA is indeed very-well-connected and internationally known. Subscriptions from Europeans will skyrocket.