Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 141. (Read 647176 times)

Well I got into MA some years ago and generally find his insights helpful. I used to be in the Peter Schiff camp, and believing their argument about about the Fed, Fiat money, Inflation, all that nonsense.

MA's articles do a GREAT job at explaining the complexities behind inflation/deflation, assets/money, the Fed, Interest Rates, and his writings on Law and History are really worth the read. He really did help steer my thinking away from the dogmatic Ron Paul / Peter Schiff people into something that made intuitive sense when considering all the factors (not just domestic) that drive trends. Gold stopped rising in 2011 and only MA said so. Schiff et al kept and KEEP pushing the "gold is money" and "this is a buying opportunity" because they cannot say otherwise...for 8 years now. 

I've also read through all his histories of each Roman Emperor. The truth is, the man's writings are why I visit the blog every day. I think we can all agree that it's impossible to be a real trader without knowing whats going on in the world and having some curiosity/observation about how humans are going to react to something. All traders do things in anticipation. For example, when Obama was in office, every school shooting was a good opportunity to buy SWHC and RGR (I think RGR is now AOBC??) the idea is that if you know how people are going to react then you can get ahead of the pack. The "rainforest" and "spooked zebra" concepts that MA mentions really help you see the world differently.

His Market Talk posts are probably the shortest, trader-oriented recaps of the day that I've ever read. Give him credit, you know he does those by hand every day. It's a one stop shop for China news, trade numbers, everything global of significance.

However, as far as his trading advice is concerned, well - it just isn't trading advice. "This week should be the high, and if it's not, then it could be next week, unless there is a PANIC CYCLE where we turn down or up next week, or next week could be the low, or this week could be the low. The support for the DOW lies at 6500 based off the March 2009 low and resistance starts at 60k. Please pay me $150 for this advice".

I really wonder if that "PREMIUM Blog" post actually cuts out any of the bullshit. Can someone PLEASE post?

I'm on this guy's side when it comes to Politics, Law, History (especially economic history), but when it comes to his trading advice he never really spells out what to do. I understand it's a dynamic and ever-changing thing where nothing is set in stone, but, even looking at his weekly arrays that he posts on the regular blog...if he posts one in Mid-April he will show an array, and then if he posts at the end of April the array in NO WAY matches up to the array from 2 weeks ago.

His reversals seem to be pretty good, but that's not worth $150 since they are basically the Fibonacci pivots.

And, yes, I have serious doubt about the sophistication of his system. He didn't go to jail because his source code somehow contains the key to the universe. I wonder if he will ever finish his "Geometry of Time" magnum opus. Or leave the world in the dark with his great secret to how his system works. If he really wanted to be taken seriously he'd have something submitted for academic review.

Personally feel bad for people who shelled out $500+ for his reports to get a rehash of his old articles. Did the Vertical Market report really give the buyers the January 2018 top?

He can be right sometimes, but he always complains how gold-bugs never say they were wrong, and yet he hypocritically explains how you just didn't his cryptic post correctly. Never admits, "Damn guys, that one was on me". I don't think he's broke - he clearly has that bust of Caesar hidden somewhere. I think he's in it for the attention and who knows if there's any real "genius" behind his magic system, but since he's given it to us it isn't the best thing since sliced bread like he promised.

Still going to read the blog every day for good reading. When his numbers concur with mine then I feel better about entering a position.   

I do not disagree with you. I lost money by following Martin/Socrates is the past three months. In fact, the exact opposite things happened from what he/it "predicted".

Easy, sloanf, please.

Let me tell you about myself, and why I'm here posting.  I finished two bachelor degrees and two master degrees in engineering from the top-5 universities, all in 6 calendar years.  By any measurement, I'm at least top 0.5% in terms of IQ among the general population.

Yet, because of my conservative personality, and also my intimate knowledge of how Artificial Intelligence and how speech recognition is done, I fell for Martin Armstrong's claim that he has this AI computer that does all the forecast.

There are two ways of achieving AI, and Armstrong's way is a mixed system of "Expert System" and extremely crude form of pattern recognition.  Expert System for AI has been pronounced dead, and it will NEVER give you true AI.  I have learned much more advanced ways of doing pattern recognition at school back in 1990s also, and I can tell that Armstrong's pattern recognition is quite crude.

The other approach of achieving AI is through neural network, and I recognized that the true AI can be truly achieved, possibly decades from now, but maybe not in my lifetime.  However, when applied on limited scope of application, such as facial recognition, or OCR, etc, neural network approach has produced amazingly result TODAY.

And because of my advanced knowledge in AI, I fell for Armstrong's claim, when in fact, he most likely doesn't have sufficient computational power within his reach at TODAY's technology.

My conservative nature led me to easily pick up all of his outrageous claims of Europe crumbling, Great plagues, investment in Gold, etc.  (Some) Human has a survival instinct, and whenever anyone talks about calamities, they pick it up.

So it is possible for an very smart person to fall for scams.  I think probably EQ & personality rather than IQ may contribute to such.

And I fell for Armstrong for possibly 15 years, and honestly, I am NOT proud of it.  And he caused me countless lost opportunities and trading losses, simply because I believed that AI in the limited application of stock trading is possible.

And so, that is why I'm here posting.  To just impart some objective thinking and truth to the crowd, for I cannot stand this Charlatan to continue his scam.  I still try to keep an open mind, and give Armstrong a tiny possibility of he being actually true to what he has been claiming.  However, time after time, whenever I try scientifically and methodically to test his words, his words can NEVER stand up to the test.

As I have always said about scientific method and true science, it will never LIE to you.  If you can REPEAT it methodically, then it is TRUE.  Otherwise, it is BS.

The number of unimaginable idiots on this thread are staggering. No wonder they are the very audience of Marti the Charlatan.
How long is it going to take for you brainless parrots to finally realize there is no AI system, no supercomputer, no offices, no employees, no nothing. It's just a one man show. You are only bubbling about his supercomputer, AI, etc because he told you so. There is no proof of anything because MA didn't present any evidence whatsoever (just empty claims) because nothing of what he claims exists.

Now, because you are not able to think and analyze, I will do it for you once again. All famous hedge-funds and investment management firms like Renaissance Technologies, DE Shaw, etc. have been throwing literally $billions and hundreds of PhDs into IT systems, AI, etc. for years. Yet they still don't have anything close to a credible AI system, a supercomputer or whatever you call it and they still don't beat the market consistently.

And then you have:
1. Uneducated 70+ y.o. convicted felon
2. Lost all the money (both of his and his clients') on bad trades, cheated (stole the remaining), get caught, spent years in prison
3. Completely broke
3. Never knew how to code, literally illiterate, ignorant and delusional with enormous ego
4. Runs his very poorly made blog on free wordpress site

Who claims without any proof whatsoever that he has singlehandedly! wrote! the program code! that collects! (from where?) all the capital flows data! in real-time!  Even the IMF does not have all the information and collects it with a month+ lag. There is no such entity in the world that has the capital flows data in real-time.

And you idiots take every word from this pathetic charlatan no matter how ridiculous they are, worship him, waste years following him and keep buying his bullshit conferences, reports and subscriptions. And frankly you fully deserve it.

And yet, for I don't know for how long, this has been posted at the end of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ summary. " We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required."

I started a basic membership early last year just to give it a try. But I have become very frustrated and will probably cancel.



 

Since we elected the weekly bullish reversal, there is a higher probability to move higher.

I do not have access to the Pro level post from Feb 22. But his Basic level post on Feb 23 was not very useful. He stated that Europeans were buying and Americans were selling. Socrates predicted this by electing 11 buy signals since the December low.

Don't you worry.  Armstrong will never comment on his (or rather AI's) mistakes, because his AI is PERFECT.

And nobody will remember or keep track of all the countless mistakes in the forecast, because human by default only remembers the most memorable events.  So we will all remember that Armstrong or his AI computer hits BIG time after time.

The only problem is how are we going to recover all the trading losses & lost opportunities from all the other mistakes.

And that is not a problem either, since there is always the survivor bias, meaning that the guys who are still around commenting survived through all the mistakes by their own excellent trading, or by luck (since by probabilities, there is always some percentage of people who will survive).

Due to the survivor bias, those who somehow don't "identify" the "gems of Armstrong's blog", simply will not be around anywhere on the internet, due to all the losses racked up, and possibly unable to pay anything.

I will repeat this again.  Scientific results are ALWAYS repeatable.  If not ALL people who perform the same experiments canNOT get the SAME (successful trading) results, then that thing is just baloney, and not true.

Therefore, if Armstrong's AI computer is that great, he should make an effort in making sure that all subscribers can get excellent trading results by issuing ACTUAL BUY & SELL.  That way, everything is repeatable and successful.

So why is he NOT doing that???  Just maybe he needs the subscribers' money, or maybe he or his AI computer simply canNOT trade successfully???

That would a meltdown. Quite unlikely .a pullback towards spx 2600 more likely .a meltdown would be another excellent time To load up and short the market. My personal analysis is a blow up top follow by a declined triangle pattern .

we need a 13% drop in the next 4 trading days to make February a panic cycle month..... lets see if we get a mega drop going into March 1st

Pls help to post Martin new private blog on 23 Feb .
My guess is he will say a breakup is possible now and to watch for 26 XXX level next. 

Been having serious FOMO after my quick flip almost a month ago (which Bike and I successfully traded). Got a new job that doesn't really afford me time to keep up with the trading day as it goes.

However, I agree with Bike that Marty and his system are on to SOMETHING and they work very well in CONJUNCTION with your own system if you have it established. Maybe Marty should just market Socrates like it should be - a supplement to what you already have in place. Kind of like just another reference point, because like Bike says (which I want to hear more specifics about), when you go through several different methodologies and systems, and they all agree on a certain target, then it's a pretty damn good bet.

What do the PROS use that is different than what we use, really? They look at OHLC and candlesticks and MACD and moving averages, volume, fib pivots, elliott wave, fucking tarot cards and horoscopes...WE ALL LOOK AT THE SAME SHIT.   

Looking hard this weekend at the most beaten-up Chinese ETFs. Once the tariffs are lifted (and it looks to be soon) the Chinese market is going to fucking explode.

Can someone PLEASE post the new private blog? Lost my free access after the recent updates. Without those arrays specifically I'm back to the drawing board but that's OK because my own system worked. I'll admit, though, that it worked better with the private blog numbers and arrays. 

so how are you doing, sheep? What, Marti the Charlatan fucked you again? Who would have thought? 
Keep buying spx puts and waiting for the panic cycle promised you for weeks now.

Base on market structure if no correction comes before may this year  Dow can rally another 3000 points .my sources say correction will be minor and will be buying opportunity .the Dow has crack 26000 . failing to retest the 25000 by next week will indicate a likely breakout condition .what a yo yo this is .it still not extreme greed yet. Hand on to your horse .

A double top is possible if 26000 is surpass .with trump drumming the stock market .I can see the high in Dow  will be restested unless north Korea fire a missile at trump now .

bikefront, that is exactly always my point.  Science is based on scientific methods, meaning that the results can ALWAYS be duplicated.  The question here is whether Armstrong's blog/research or scam can deliver a positive non-trivial profitable value to his subscribers.  If the process of delivering this information is most of the time obscure (to hide all the forecasting errors), then scientifically, there is NO value.

Armstrong always quotes science, and laugh at economists.  But he cannot even consistently deliver values to the subscribers.

If one always say that every scenario "could" happen, or never count the losses/errors when he is wrong, of course, he is "always right".  Or if he uses 3.14, 3.14*1000, 3.14*100, 8.6, 8.616, 8.6xxxx, 72, 25.8, 26, 51.6, 52, 223, 224, 306, all sorts of numbers, and multiply them with days, weeks, months, quarters, years, and even 1 million years, and fill up the entire number line, and randomly pick worldwide international events to fit any points, of course, his Economic Confidence Model (ECM) will seem like to be magic.

Guess what, Armstrong cannot tell the difference between 10/01/2015, versus 10/07/2015 for his last ECM date.  To him, the math works out the same.  That is his "science".

Armstrong said that the weekly to watch is 25980 and there is also a daily at 25966.5 which we have now reached. Yesterday was a turning point and we could not elect the reversal so it should be the high. It is also a weekly turning point so it could also mean the high is in for the week.

Based on my own source this bull should continue until July and then start to consolidate downwards if the current vertical market continues in the bull direction. There is a high chance of breaking the 27000 level for a top this year .after that it should be a great shorting opportunity .the market should bounce like a yo-yo and test both extreme  highs and lows . patience  .

I believe the stock has some room to go higher . Martin cannot be right on spot all the time. The market some times do invert .but I expect some corrections when the next top come in .can the 26000 be the major resistance ? 

Ok, so Armstrong said that February is a Panic Cycle, and also he said that February could be consolidation.

So if he adds that February "could" make a high, and also February "could" make a low, he would have covered all possible scenarios, and since he used "could", he canNOT be wrong.

He is really a "great" forecaster.  How about stick to a single script, and don't use "could" all the time, and make some real predictions/real trades and stick to his own predictions, and be accountable for his own "forecasting" errors?

Isn't that essentially covering all possible cases, and then go back and just point out in whichever post that actually mentioned the correct scenario (while ignoring all other misses), and then claim for the credits?

If you place all bets both up, down, and both high/low volatility, then of course, one of the bets will pay off.  But in real trading with real money, you will lose money when you don't know which scenario will pay off.