Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 140. (Read 647054 times)

Here is the link to Armstrong's student debt petition:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/student-loan-petition-to-white-house/

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/repeal-11-usc-ss-523a8

Raw text:
The economics of higher education are in crisis: tuitions are soaring,
with increases in college and school costs outpacing inflation students are exiting
college and graduate school more indebted than ever hastransformed student loans into the largest source of consumer indebtednessafter mortgages. To make matters worse, all of this comes as the value of higher education is being called into question. With returns sinking and tuitions, indebtedness, and defaults surging, the need for higher education financial reform is pressing. Students are unlikely to be able to repay, and § 523(a)( of the Bankruptcy Code exacerbates the effects of such burdensome debt by allowing private and federal student loans to be discharged only upon a showing of "Undue Hardship." Please sign this petition.

TYPOS above:
hastransformed and indebtednessafter


How many percentage of people know what's USC § 523(a)(?  Well, probably Armstrong.
Of those people who are familiar with laws, either practicing lawyers, or law-school students, they should ALL know that all text in any legal documents MUST be PRECISE language.  So out of this group of people, the chance of them making ANY typo on a formal petition should be extremely small, or close to zero.

So you can be the judge for the two proposed possible scenarios here:
1. Some fresh-out-of-school law school student submitted this very important petition (for his need), and made 2 typos, not realizing it, during the proof-read process which I presumed that he would have done because this petition is important to him.

2. Armstrong pretended (again) as the reader, had a sudden personality-split (or not really, if you observe all the readers' comments which are extremely similar), and submitted the petition, and blogged about the petition, so that he will seem to be the GOOD GUY, and the government is the BAD GUY (who also happened to put him into jail).  But since Armstrong has TYPOs everywhere, and never proof-reads anything that he writes, it just happened that there were TWO typos in the text of petition.

You could find the other two examples of typos from readers, if you search my posts in this forum.

I posted in this forum that MULTIPLE of his "readers" make the SIMILAR glaring typos in their feedbacks (like Armstrong himself).  That student debt petition, if you remember, also had TYPO (a missing space).  So most likely he submitted the petition himself, and said that some reader submitted it, and wanted him to endorse.  And of course, he is playing to be the GOOD GUY, so that all the young people will fall for him.

Just tell me, WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND, will submit a petition, without proof-reading the petition carefully twice or three times?  I cannot really think of anybody, except Martin Armstrong.

Yacht??  Did you know that if Dow at 26K, and only rises on par with 2% annual inflation, it will be about 34K by 2032 after 13 years?
Armstrong was implying a phase transition and going to 40K for 2020, okay?  And now he backed away from that and said that it's postponed to 2032.  That is just LAME.

If Dow goes to 60K, that is only close to 4% annual increase.  That means that if you have $100K buying power today, and you do the "first part of the trade of century", you will gain about another $100K buying power at 2032.  And assume that everything is perfect, and you do the "second part of the trade of century", then you may gain another $100K buying power (by shorting $200K inflation-adjusted), if stocks fall by 50% in 2 years after that.  So you will earn $200K in total after 13+2 years (or $13K annual) in buying power, assuming that you start with $100K right now.  And you want your yacht?  Don't fall for Armstrong's flamboyant language (CENTURY??).

Why does Armstrong keep using trade or buy for the "CENTURY" for gold in the past, and for stocks now?  Because some people don't want to do their math, and is willing to skip thinking altogether, and just take words from some self-proclaimed forecaster.

I said something like this before, but I will say it again.  If Armstrong's AI computer is that accurate, and he knows that market will drop/pop tomorrow by 1%, he just need to leverage that by 400X or more, and put in a trade of $100 billion, he will be a billionaire in just ONE day in one trade.  Given his "perfect predictions", so many people and Wallstreet should be willing to lend him money to do this trade.  He should have been a billionaire in just ONE day, and return all the borrowed money.  Even if he doesn't do a trade size of $100 billion, he should be able to do a trade size of $10 billion, since he SAID that his managed portfolio size is at more than 1 TRILLION.  He should have been able to trade at least 1% of his portfolio in the past.  And he should have made MANY billions from managing his TRILLION dollar portfolio "easily".

There are some 250 trading days in just 1 year, and Armstrong should be making like 25 billion a year, or 2.5 billion a year if his daily trade size is $1 billion.  The fact that he is NOT the richest person on Earth, already is telling you that the accuracy of his AI computer is FAR FAR FAR away from being accurate.

Hahahaha, damn, 2016...
Man this is gold (pun intended).
Still same template to this day :/
Sad...

Always wondered why he doesn't have a comment section on his blog, but probably would get flooded by his followers.

That could be a good resource to read. Many of the people who are scammed are those who did not look into the fields of economics and all of these related topics. Not learning how things work in economics makes people weak on judging between the truth and the fallacy made by these scammers. When these people make promises the dead ones are brought back to life and the ones who could not think about the false logic are easily persuaded.

Shit. That was more than I expected for a response. I never really thought of the US "dying" like that but it makes total sense. The rush to the US and the inevitable crash just like any rush before it, no matter the scale (looking @ BTC lol). When something goes up that much that quickly, it's bound to fall to gravity. Like Marty always says, the top is in when everyone who wants already has and the buyers dry up. So that's how the US ends huh ='(

If we're not all on yachts after this trade of the century, I'm guessing China is the next best place to go with your assets in the wake of all this?

Thanks for the clarification. The trade of the century could indeed include going long as well as short. Though it seems that one should've gone full long by now if the Dow is certain to hit 40,000 soon.
It would seem that either Marty's not sure about advising his followers to take a long position, or he wants to continue using it as a carrot on a stick for subscription money.

To clarify to that 60000 dow could be around 2032 for final high.
For now passing the 28000 this year is the thing to look for .

There are 2 parts to trade of the century . One lies with the dow doubling from 20000 to 40000 .
The other lies in shorting the top of this move .this is the trade of the century he refers to. Captured these 2 move and that should make your parents proud and your kids happy.

From 1st January 2018 (a year ago)

'A lot of emails have come in on the last Private Blog Post. Our three primary target were 18500, 23700, and then 36000-40000. We also mentioned there would be intermediate resistance at the 25000 and 28000 level. While one email said we were cherry-picking from 2014 comments, the fact is these numbers do not change. The entire point is that 2018 is a Panic Cycle Year and the profile appears to be choppy noting every other month until we reach July. The Empirical models point to May as the strongest target with a Monthly Panic Cycle at that time.
It is always hard to guess the fundamentals that will be involved. There will be more EU elections to call confidence to come into question in the March/May time period so that could be reason for that period of interest. But we also have the Democrats who will do everything possible now to raise the controversy of Impeachment and mainstream media will play along. So 2018 is going to be a bashing-Trump celebration for the Democrats will have nothing else to rally their cause but to just oppose whatever Trump and the Republican propose. With the 2018 midterm elections in November, the computer does not seem to be looking at that period with any crazy volatility. It definitely appears that we are dealing with the first half of 2018 rather than the second. Thus, the chaos comes first and them we may get back to a trend for the second half of 2018.
What will become absolutely CRITICAL is a new high in the Dow above the 2017 high of 24876.07. The entire point of bringing up the 2014 post calling for a high at this time at the minimum threshold of 25,000-28,000, is the fact that we have reached this minimum target and that warns we can consolidate trapping people into a bear position. We do have a Monthly Bearish now at the 21279.00 level. This is the FIRST time a Monthly Bearish has risen above the 20,000 level so this is NOT something to ignore. If that were elected, then a sharp drop back to 17850 area becomes possible. Only a monthly closing below 16,000 level would signal a sustainable correction. That would then be a sign of a full blown extension of TIME meaning the ultimate high will be clearly pushed off into the 2032 period and that means the MOST EXTREME target would become likely, which I am hesitant to even mention and will not do so on the public blog for it would surely be taken out of context and used improperly. So I trust this will not be made public but the MOST EXTREME projection for a 2032 high would be 61,000. Keep in mind that such a number is intertwined with a monetary crisis and thus it is not a reflection of the current purchasing power. A Local phone call might also cost you $10 at that point in time. So let's keep the context here firmly connected.
Our 40,000 target was for a high no sooner than 2020. That is not the target for an extended rally into 2032.
This 25,000-28,000 is the new barrier. Once we get through that area, then the next minimum target becomes 32,000.
Keep in mind that the dollar is still vulnerable short-term. We could still see the Euro rally to the 12570 level before it declines. So a decline in the dollar could spark foreign selling and that means we could see weakness in the Dow before we get the strength.'

From 25 June 2018
We have exceeded the 2017 high intraday and if 2018 closes low, then we are indeed in an extended consolidation probably into 2020. However, this would simply reset the Phase Transition and we would be looking for an incredible price explosion into the 2025/2026 time period. That would certainly warn of the currency reset.

From 31 dec 2018
The data is now complete for 2018 and we were able to generate the new Array from 2019 into 2030. As I suspected, instead of a breakout to the upside into 2020, we are extending the cycle into 2032 for a final and major high. Just look at the share rise in volatility from 2026 onward and a Panic Cycle in 2030.

He's mentioned that he expects the US stock market to get into major bubble territory. (I seem to remember him saying somewhere the Dow could hit 60,000)
The trade of the century will be shorting the US stock market near a bubble top, IMO.

Here is the latest private blog post from Feb. 28.

I recall the exact words that he used as above in 1999 to 2000.  And he used that phrase for gold.  Less than 20 years into this century, he obviously moved on to the next scam audience with a new different selling point.

He doesn't remember any of his errors, nor he doesn't think people remember his erroneous forecasts.  But some people do remember.

Thks .if feb is temp high then expected some market pullback in March .I still expect a new high this year .

Some excerpts from recent posts:

"We are in negotiations with a government wealth fund that wants, not just to use the model, they want to open it up to accepting money to manage for individuals."

"The US sharemarket rally has taken place on the massive capital inflows from Europe seeking safety from the political chaos. So while Americans were selling everything they could get their hands on as forecasts of a major crash loomed, the Europeans were saying thank you very much for the bargains."

A couple days later this shows up on ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-27/when-everyone-else-was-liquidating-stocks-worlds-biggest-wealth-fund-was-buying-it

There are only 2 major Sovereign Wealth Funds that I can think of - Singapore and Norway (does SA have one?). Looks like Marty's advising Norway (although his role could be GREATLY exaggerated).

"The Economic Confidence Model turns in January 2020. We are preparing for the Greatest Trade of the Century, but we must look at this from everyone’s point of view which is colored through the looking glass of currency. But to trade this opportunity, DEMANDS you must have the CONFIDENCE to pull the trigger. To survive the next two years, it requires a clear understanding of how the system works which is confirmed by each market.

The failure to understand how we are all connected will result in you losing at the end of the sequence. The last domino will be your fate. Without comprehension, you will never see it coming. You need to understand the world as a hedge fund manager – not a domestic manager blind to everything outside of his domain."

Norway has a strong Kronr and is in prime position for a commodities boom with their oil reserves, seed banks, fertilizer companies, etc.

Has ANYONE gotten insight into this TRADE OF THE CENTURY he's hyping up? This is a sales tactic for sure, but I wonder if we can discuss and maybe decode what he means by the above. It seems like it's not so clear-cut that if you're an American with dollars and stocks you'll be on the right side of this trade.

If the Euro goes to shit, the Dollar will soar in value but does that necessarily mean stocks will decline and prices fall? How could the TRADE OF THE CENTURY be to hold onto your cash under a mattress?

Or...could it be he's just pulling us along hoping we shell out $5k for his conference?

Not everything he says is without merit, or insight. He wrote extensively today about going to Germany and how they realize the huge mess they're in. I don't doubt he visits institutions and banks, even Central Banks like he claims. But as a supposed "Philosopher", literally a lover of knowledge, you would think that he would be more willing to share this secret knowledge of his to the rest of the world.

Again, if his system was so awesome, and worked so well with so many markets/climate/war/politics, then why not submit a paper for review? If he goes to the grave without telling the "secret" to his Socrates system, it's entirely possible somebody down the line would be able to figure it out on their own. However it could take 100 years for such a person to emerge - that would be selfish of Marty the philosopher to have the world "in darkness" because he refused to leave behind the instruction manual.

So, yeah, what do you guys think is the TRADE OF THE CENTURY?

He only referred to the DOW.

Basically he stated that a couple of weekly bullish reversals were elected last week. February can remain as a temporary high. And March appears volatile.

Problem with Schiff is he quotes macro economics, trading wise that advice is rubbish.   But generally gold is not supposed to be a profitable trading asset, its a plain commodity with no yield to it and quite often many other assets should be outperforming it.   Just owning your own house is likely more sensible then gold as it reduces outgoings, however mentioning renting in appraisal of cost and value is fair game and I dont often think schiff is wrong on his general take but its not for trading.    To give credit, Schiff has never advised people to hold more then 10% gold, some do and thats reckless as we've seen gold can be unpopular and losing price for anywhere upto a decade.

Price falling like that doesnt make it invalid imo, I think gold is just a long term asset.    I consider it like funds in a pension, some value I'm not getting back any time soon but is quite vital as a hedge to long term factors.   Also I believe its very much correct that 2011 on going and for longer probably the central banks have been net buyers of gold.   They are likely to keep and monetise gold for decades forthcoming, it seems fairly inevitable the debt accumulation since the early eighties that so far has floated is going to be a lead balloon at some point.   So we have a switch away from easy money, many alternatives will occur and gold will be one of them its pretty certain.

My personal take on gold is that its beaten its downtrend since 2011 but thats just a personal estimate, its accumulating rather being in any great trend right now.  I would guess on a boom for gold before crypto right now though I wouldnt write either off and rate both over us dollar chances of returning positively due to excessive debt and poor trade balance.

Latest post private blog from Martin for discussion ?

Anybody can post .?

Market is closed now for the month February.

So that is the February PANIC cycle.  Not an outside month vs January.  Market advanced by like 4% in 1 month, instead of having some selling or buying panic.

So, shall we add that to the endless list of failed forecasts from Armstrong?  Or rather, nobody is keeping the score, but just remembered Armstrong's home runs.  Armstrong likes to try for all the home runs, and no one (including myself) remembers all of the misses that he had, but the followers of his forecast are sure to stuck with the losses in the account.  Hitting home runs are great, because if you hit them, people remember that, and if you don't hit them, people don't really remember them either.

I won't call February a consolidation (of gains made in January) either, which was another guess attempted by Armstrong (or his AI).

Making a call for a PANIC is some strong words, wouldn't you say?  And that sounds like a really good profitable opportunity, IF it were true.

But Armstrong won't count this error for sure.  Out of thousands of sentences that he continuously writes about the market, he will surely pick the 0.5% that hits the bull-eyes, and then tell you: see, I told you so.

And what about all the other misses, and the money lost?  EASY, it's because you are a public reader, and you didn't subscribe to basic membership, or it was in the premium membership level, and you only paid for the basic, or it's in the professional version, but the work is in progress, and will soon be made available, or guess what, you didn't pay to attend the $3000+ ECM conference, and Armstrong supposedly said that in the conference (well, that particular hit, but probably including 1000 other misses said in the conference), or it was published in one of the many arcane reports, and that you just didn't bother to buy it.

Or rather, most commonly, 5% smart traders from the general population, "interpretted" Armstrong's ambiguous words in exactly the right way, and made some profits from Armstrong's words, while 95% of the general population, simply couldn't make any sense out of his cryptic  blog, nor picked out the right profitable opportunities.

As long as Armstrong keeps his words ambiguous, and keep his audience to bet on both sides, he can ALWAYS find some successful subscribers who bet on the right side, "emailing and congratulating and thanking" him for the "precious" info.

Great job done by Armstrong!

I'm still waiting for the 2019 Great Plague to come.  Only two months have passed this year so far, but everything is "CYCLE" to Armstrong, and according to his literal words, 2019 is the final CLIMAX at the international level for THIS great plague cycle, which should have been compared to the cycle of the Black Death that happened.

Wow, wow, wow.  I'm sure his words back then must have grabbed all readers' attention.  And now, barely any people would remember his old forecast.  But, wait, isn't his AI super-computer can forecast all global events, including earthquakes, weather, economics, and observe all the cycles, and such big events would have leave their indelible marks & influences on the economics & society???  AND of course, the AI computer predicts all the wins & losses of Superbowl, elections, and also 8.6 year ECM cycles apply to any individual businesses as well.

Okay, sorry, I'm just puking at this point.  I just can't repeat more of his grandiose claims.

Could some generous person from this forum, go to register at the straightdope.com, and post a link from here at this thread:

https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=694414

I tried to do that, but the auto-screener that prevent spammers, somehow blocked my registration, possibly because I tried to use MA_scam as my username (and maybe their system thought I'm scamming.  I got smarter, and so I used MA_talk for my username here).

That thread pops up as the 3rd Google Search result, if you google search "Martin Armstrong fraud", and some people who actually went to the conference posted their review.

I continue to keep an open mind on Martin Armstrong, and I continue to be willing to listen to the other side.  An open mind ALLOWS the possibility of someone being wrong, but the chance to correct that wrong view, even when that possibility is extremely small.

But on the other hand, one must view the matter in question objectively and scientifically.  Collect and gather evidences, and repeat experiments to collect high-confidence results.  I used to think MANY times in the past that I must have interpreted Armstrong incorrectly.  NO, not really.  If you focus on his key terms that cannot be interpreted any other ways, such as Panic cycle, Turning Point, etc.  and try OBJECTIVELY examine the results, you would find that time after time, Armstrong's "prediction" record, is more like throwing a coin, and guessing head & tail.

footlong24seven, I fully agree with almost everything you said.  And I have said that too that probably 95+% of his blog content is true.

The problem comes when Armstrong slips in some 5% untruth, and it becomes difficult to tell which part is true, and which part is not true.

Armstrong is for sure not dumb, and extremely far more knowledgeable in economic history than average folks.  And that is exactly HOW he sells his stuffs.  First, he needs to convince you that he is superior if not far superior.  Then, he sells you something "foreign", that you don't understand fully.  To the Westerner, he sells the story of China economic uprising.  Well, my father who is only a high school graduate can see China uprising 30 years ago.  And not just my father, but ALL of my Asian relatives.  It's only news to the westerners.  And to the Asian, Armstrong being a westerner, by default, is a foreign product.  It actually works both way.

And I also agree that Armstrong has good insights in economics.

And Armstrong like all con artists try to convince people that he is the good guy.  One time I fell for a scam, because the con artist gave $500 to a black woman in the audience, and that immediately lowered my subconscious defense and vigilance, when in fact, probably that black woman was working for the con artist.  Since he WAS convicted, he MUST take the other side for sure, and he posted all these bad things about government, politics, etc.  And again, all of that is probably 95% if not 100% correct.

BUT the ball stops there.

His claims about services, and his prediction success, 8.6 ECM cycle, or rather 8.6153846615 years cycle, as shown here from web archive:
http://web.archive.org/web/20141015175106/http:/armstrongeconomics.com/

etc, all those things are simply NOT true.  He can never be certain whether it's 8.6, or 8.615, or 8.6153846615.  I read his blog & articles from prison.  His math is just FUNNY, and he will make any numbers fit, far better than any living astrologers.

So I'm not denying any of Armstrong's great economic insights.  But going from there, to his super-AI computer.  NO.  As far as I can tell and study from his blog, it is NOT true.  His blog & services has NO positive trading value (or in fact, probably negative value).