Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 154. (Read 647176 times)

The thing is today's drop was the biggest single drop of the entire year second only to February of this year.

HUGE Potential profits to be made on today's drop.  And yet I did not hear any confident aggressive call that this drop was coming today.  Only that we are in 'consolidation'.

Simple technical analysis forewarned that this drop and of this size was coming.

I get his blog updates and there was zero warning about today.

re long term forecasting I found these:

from 2014 on the DOW: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/dow-confusion/
'we still see the two primary targets for highs on this run in the 26000 area followed by 43000 area. The latter would have been a Sling Shot Move now for a high in 2015.75. We are still in a position to see that level but it would appear more-likely-than-not to be the 2017-2018 time period.
This is a question of TIME more so than price. ..The rally will come when the fresh crowd all start to buy once again. That becomes the question as to how high is high. It is starting look like the 43000 number more so than just the 26000 level. We need more price action to confirm that outcome'
- note these forecasts all depend upon the TIME factor i.e. using the Arrays and Reversals together. If they don't hit/come together then you wait for the next cycle/Time and Price to come together for the forecast to become fact.

from Jan 2015 re Bonds: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/
'This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be a market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble'
- note he doesn't say in January that there will be a crash 8 months later on that exact date 2015.75..he says it's the start that 'ferments' the peak in bonds - that fermented (think bubbly) peak came to fruition nearly a year later in July 2016 and has been heading on a southwards trend ever since.

A bit more on Time and Price coming together in relation to Gold from 2013 - he forecast the low should be 2015 if Time and Price come together:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/time-price/
'as far as the low is concerned, the price can be between 1050 and 850. It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved. If we saw $950 tomorrow, sorry, that would not be the low because the time is not right.'

It is always useful to re-read the classics of economic analysis. Without an understanding of the basics of economics, it is not possible to become a professional trader.

Fascinating stuff. Must have been rather a shock for you to reveal these, shall we say, "inconsistencies" after following his work for all this time.

I've been reading his blog for over four years and these revelations really leave a sour taste. At times I had the vague impression of repeated similar sentence contruction in questions, but not sufficiently so to make me doubt their veracity.

So in the light of what you've discovered, do you see any value at all now in the ECM, or anything he writes?

EDIT:
Have the posts with the "hire" and "fire" typos been edited by Armstrong since you discovered them? And if so, I wonder if the originals might be on Wayback Machine - though I imagine you would already have tried this.

Just want to clarify on his reader's typo of "hire" as "fire".  The chance of another reader having such flagrant typo (like Armstrong often does), together with the chance of having a super-psychic Armstrong not realizing the typo, and not correcting the typo, but simply sees "fire" as "hire" directly in his super-clairvoyant mind, is essentially zero.  A rare event of 0.01% chance can sometimes happen.  But to have two rare events of 0.01% chance happening at the same time will be 0.0001%, and that's basically impossible.

The alternative and much simpler explanation is simply that Armstrong was typing reader's questions in his mind, and obviously everything is crystal clear to him, since he is composing readers' questions.

It literally took me at least more than 2 minutes to realize that "hire" was mis-typed as "fire".

It's everything that added up, some lies here, some lies there, some mis-forecast here and there, etc.  And then I finally woke up.  And what I should have done all along was simply to test his forecast in a SYSTEMATIC way, and that would have told the story quickly, instead of having me persuading myself that I didn't understand his ECM correctly, or that I didn't subscribe to all of his private offering, etc.

I heard that one before.  He called gold "the greatest trade of the CENTURY" before.  That's his usage of sensationalism to trap readers.

Hey, what about the validity for his long term forecast?  He SAID it's for the CENTURY for gold too.

KiwiBird, it will be very difficult to find another person who has read as much on Armstrong as I did.  I read ALL of his public posts since year 1999, except for the last 2 or 3 years.  I "know" everything about his "methodologies" which are not very useful, and I can tell you all about cycle inversion, 1/8, 1/4, 1/2, PI, 26, 37.1, 8.6, 8.615, 224 or 223, 52, and all of the magic numbers.

There is nothing magically about sleeping 4 hours.  I sleep 5 hour everyday.  And many people sleep just 4 hours.  He doesn't trade because he probably cannot make a profit.

For the longest time, I thought he answers his readers' questions, until I caught a typo in his readers' questions.  And it happened two times.  If a reader actually emails him, he should simply cut & paste over the question.  He shouldn't re-type it.  As you know very well, Armstrong has quite a lot of typos in his posts, and I'm extremely sensitive to any typos.  The typo that he made in readers' questions was fire instead of hire (or it may be the other way around).  There was absolutely NO WAY for anyone to make sense out of it EXCEPT for the person who is typing it (and made the typo).  It took me several minutes to realize that typo, to be able to proceed to understand the entire sentence.

After that, I realized that probably over 50% of the sent-in questions by readers are ALL FAKE.

As I posted in one of the earliest posts, his vice-president of Princeton Economics Institute was found guilty ALLOCATING profitable trades to his/PEI account.  Are you going to tell me that Armstrong, as SMART as he is, would know NOTHING about this stealing under his nose??  The only guaranteed profits would be theft from customers' accounts.  And it's super easy to do.  Simply go short/long at the same time, and profits goes to yours, while losses go to customers'.

I have already given up on Armstrong, and doesn't even bother anymore to keep track, as I have seen so many failures.  What he does BEST is that at the high volatility of any markets, he will come out and make the swing, and either scare you, or say "I told you so".  Because of that, reading such posts from him actually will cause you to lose money most of the time, because it's at the peak of the emotion, and you simply follow him and panic.  So I refrain from reading him now, realizing what he is doing, and what the effects are on me.

I checked out what he kept claiming about Barron's post on his stock market forecast back in about 2011.  The only thing that I could find is that he said stock market will go up long term.  There was NOTHING else or specific that he said.  DUD!  I don't need anyone to tell me that.  Yet, he kept taking credit for forecasting this current rise of stock market.

I also realize what his "business model" is all about.  Price it super-high, and make it seems to be valuable due to its price.  And there is ALWAYS some takers who will try.  It's like the internet ads.  I don't click on ANY, but because of the huge number of people, someone is bound to click OR mis-click on the ads.  And same for institutional services.  There will ALWAYS be some institutions who want to give it a try.

ALL of his reports that I bought are 97% history, which you canNOT argue with him, since they're historical facts, and then 3% ambiguous forecasts, which can be either way.  Darn, the war cycle is ONLY 25 years, AND he said from year N to year N+7, with rising intensity.  DARN, that's MORE than 25% of the cycle length.  You just need some headline in that 25% of the cycle length to hit, and of course, he is going to tell you that "see, I said so".  How about some more specific forecast?

At the end of days, it's all the same.  You cannot make any real profits out of it.  I can also forecast CORRECTLY on earthquake too, if I keep saying that the intensity is picking up and picking up, especially with California haven't been hit with a BIG ONE for so many years now.  If I simply make such forecast towards the tail end of either earthquake, or the 30+ years of the bull market in bonds, and I keep throwing my darts at target every year, but change what I say if it doesn't happen, then I will for sure hit the JACKPOT sooner or later.

If you don't believe me that BAR HEIGHT is the PRICE (as he said in an email), then please tell WHAT in the hell should be IN the forecast array.  The two most important things about ANY markets are PRICE and VOLUME.  And he PUT that thing in the FIRST ROW.  It's got to be important to be put in the first ROW.  So if he is not telling you about the price, then that's the volume?  Well, it's not volatility, since he already has another row for that.  Tell me what it can be.  Or is that just garbage, something that you shouldn't know about, and so that you don't need to pay attention to?

Anyway, I wanted to make a website, documenting every little details on Armstrong, but I have been just too busy.

Another cryptic blog post by Marty

what EXACTLY does he mean by the greatest trade of the century

to go long NOW?

or to go long after an October crash ?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/

I found this video of the 2016 WEC to be very helpful.  https://vimeo.com/198896912
In the 2nd part, Erwin Pletsch outlines how to use the Reversals and Arrays.  You also have to read Models & Methodologies (see the website) in tandem with the video to get to grips with how to forecast.  I understand why he gets Erwin to do the workshop - holding a 48hr event like this must be hard work for someone like Armstrong who is in his late 60s - spread the load and Erwin has been around Socrates since the 80s, so he knows it inside out. 

MA did forecast at the 2016 WEC that the DOW would enter a Phase Transition and rise for the next 2 years into 2018 as long as it elected the Monthly Bullish 18,625 which it did at the end of November 2016 : https://vimeo.com/198896912 - (listen at 2 hours+50mins & 3 hours+25mins).

I also urge you to watch The Forecaster on vimeo (like $5).  I met his good friend Larry Edelson back in 2015 when he was doing a Q&A at the documentary screening where i live.  In the bar afterwards he said that Armstrong sleeps only 4hrs at a time (and I guess possibly naps during the day) and is up late writing..the blog is free and I think he does it during these dark hours, hence the spelling, punctuation etc...chronological order would be amazing but I doubt he has the time to do this. 
I'm under the assumption that his bread and butter comes from advising major institutions etc and that he cannot personally trade as this would mean he's conflicted.

Here is one of the latest podcasts from 25 September..https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9PPaVAkZ4

I personally don't trade but try to invest long term with the trend - so far he has been spot on regarding longterm forecasts.. as Erwin says, day and week trading there is too much 'noise'. 

I cannot find his attempted call on stock peaks.  I recalled he tried to sneak in about 3 times.  But using search, I came up with his call on peak in bond markets:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/the-peak-in-government-a-low-in-interest-rates/

And that was NOT correct.  The peak of interest rate indicated by TLT US bonds, or European bonds was NOT on ANY ECM dates.  Peak for TLT was July 8th, 2016.  He never defined exactly what is "peak of confidence in government" for the ECM in 2015.75, but it's obvious to ANYONE that confidence in government should have been measured by the government bond prices, just like the above link, as he was trying to allude to it as well.  BUT he didn't get the peak of bond prices correct AT ALL, and everybody knows that this would have been the bubble to pop, as the bond bull market has gone on for some 30 years.

Notice his wording in his post that allows him to claim credit, in case he is correct.

bikefront, I kept repeating this.  You MUST "measure" his prediction success SYSTEMATICALLY.
Of course, he "ALLOWS" possibilities, so that he can get everything correct.  What about all the long term forecasts that he claims he can make, and that he claimed he made.
Anyone predicts like he does can get everything correct.  If it's not correct, just say that the alternative scenario has been elected.  But who will be stuck with the trading losses?

Kiwibird, I posted how ECM length canNOT be 8.6 years, because that is simply NOT the right number, according to Armstrong HIMSELF (he posted different dates for 2015.75).  You can scroll back and look at what I posted.  8.6 is a MYTH.  If it's a science, then it is repeatable.  It cannot be 8.615 now, and 8.600 later, and 8.61513, and then 8.59.  According to Armstrong, ECM is accurate to the day.  So 8.6 MUST be accurate within 0.3%.  But it's not.  In fact, it's just whatever closest number that will make the math & dates correct.

In previous articles Armstrong says the 8.6 year US Share Market cycle last fell on 1st Oct 2017. 8.6 yrs after this date is Jan 28/29 2022.  Could that be the high?  Socrates sometimes outlines 2022 as an important date for the DOW.
Using his cycle calculation within that 8.6y period starting from 1 Oct 2017, the next TIME target for the US Share Market is next month 7 Nov 2018..also the 21/22 Nov 2018 is a peak date for the ECM (which is the economic confidence model for the whole world).  Worth keeping an eye on 7 Nov 2018 perhaps?!

Do you have link for Armstrong sneaking in the peak call? From my memory, Armstrong has stated this is the longest hated bull run. I havn't seen him forecast a drop. Would be nice if you have links?

Again, over so many years, Armstrong "did" say MANY things.  You cannot judge the accuracy by just one thing that he said.

What's most important is that HOW MANY of that were correct?  And you will only remember the most memorable/accurate, if you don't keep the actual statistics.

He kept saying that long term forecast is a lot easier and more accurate than the short-term forecasts.

Well, plague NEVER happened in 2014, nor 2015, nor 2016, nor 2017, nor 2018, which he kept postponing the doomsday.

And war nor civil war did NOT happen either at the scale that he was indicating with his "cycle of wars".  He was comparing to World War 1, 2, etc.

And earthquakes?!  And European disintegration, fall of euro?

Again, by his own words, if you are not looking at things globally, any of your forecast cannot be correct.  And since he did NOT get the plague, war, or earthquake correct, according to his own words, there is NO WAY that he can get things correct at the global level either, since "in his own words",  such events like plagues, weather, earthquakes, will affect the global economy dramatically, and his "AI computer" is watching these events closely.

He cannot even get the peak of the current bull correct, and has been trying to "sneak in" a peak call here and there since 2012.  Shouldn't he be able to forecast the stock market for the long term??  NO, instead, he walks you down via reversal systems, and decision trees, etc.  Why?  Because the long-term future is not something that he can forecast at all.  So he needs to continuously change his calls, based on the market conditions.  And then give you the "cycle inversion" so that the peak could be extended indefinitely.

For an analyst with integrity, either you call it years ago, and stick with that.  Or admit that you cannot do ANY long-term forecast.  Don't change your answers, as you see it, and as time goes by.

And then for the short-term forecast, just LOOK at the bars, and see if the relative price levels are even correct.

I read his blog for 16+ years, and he NEVER said that anywhere, until I paid his useless reports that were filled with 97% history, but just 3% ambiguous forecast, and tried to ask him those questions.

His assistant emailed me back with the answers, and I was told that "the bars ARE the price levels".

What I'm saying here is collaborated by someone else who attended his WEC seminar (in one of the link that I posted at straightdope.com)  He essentially doesn't explain much of anything about the arrays.  Instead he gets another person to "explain" and confound you further.

If there is anything worthwhile in the arrays, I think at the minimum, people who bought into WEC seminars, should have been told.

I may have said this in the previous posts, but Armstrong said in an email (from his assistant) that the bars in the array represent the price levels.  I also asked the color coding of the bars, and he said that when it changes direction, the color changes.  Prior to that, I always thought that there are some magic or crypto info embedded.  But after that, I found that most of the direction change or turning points are at where the actual bars (price levels) change directions (which is obvious, by the definition of turning point).  There were some that aren't like that, but most that I've found are like that.  I'm not too sure why.

Regardless, "bars represent the actual price levels".  And you would think the FIRST row, composite, would be the most significant, which combines all of his timing models.

In order to figure out whether Armstrong's arrays are useful, you MUST apply the same criterion every time.  For example, you must measure the percentage of prediction success for EVERY turning point.  You cannot cherry-pick the one that he got, and ignore 5 other ones that he missed.  Or you can see if the bars in the composite arrays tell the correct relative price levels for each timeframe.

If not, adding your own thoughts and interpretation on top of his array information, is basically adding your trading skills/edges on top of his raw information.

For the longest time reading his blog/array, when that net result of "my thinking on top of his array" is wrong, I thought that I must have interpreted his array incorrectly.
When the net result is correct, I thought that "wow, Armstrong is CORRECT!".

Do yourself a favor.  Collect the actual statistics by measuring the information from his array OBJECTIVELY.  If it's not even 60% correct, throw yourself a dice next time before you want to make a trade.

Week of 10/15 shows high volatility, but also the highest Composite reading. How do you interpret this?

70% of the time a panic cycle is an outside reversal or capitulation
30% of the time a panic cycle is a fast one way move.

The next level of resistance on the daily channel price targets for the Dow is at 26926 area which could be a good place to short the market. So far the daily array has been very accurate even though as Armstrong has said The Reversal System is the only game in town. If we exceed the September high we should move higher into year end.

The trader service should come out this month or early November I am certain because Armstrong has said it is in the final stages and will be live well in advance of the WEC which is being held on November the 16th.

I think it's best to take Armstrong as another indicator. Don't believe in blind faith. Nobody is 100% accurate. I believe he's more accurate than your normal Economist that's for sure!

I mean future will prove past. So Armstrong has said Bitcoin will NOT reach 100k. I recken it'll hit 1 million as predicted by John McAfee. We'll see if Armstrong is right or not. I think Armstrong is wrong on bitcoin, he just don't understand it, or don't want to understand it, or lying about bitcoin. We'll see.

Also for the record, Hillary was going to start world war 3 if she had became President. There was a 16 year plan. 8 years Obama to setup the war, and Hillary was going to start the war and with her 8 years.

Trump won, and now they're at war taking down the Cabal, Good vs Evil. When Trump won the Presidency, he took out the Bush family and Clinton Family. He's now taken out the House of Saud (Saudi Arabia). His next target is Rothchilds, and then Soros. Right now, Trump has appointed his own people in the Fed, so he's working on the Rothchilds now.

Also, there's a real war right now. America is still in a state of war, since 9/11. Trump has taken this and continued it. It's Good vs Evil now. He's targeting the Cabal. Giving power back to the people.

The Euro is quite interesting. He said we elected a minor weekly reversals so we will likely have a high 01-10. He then said that according to his what-if models that if the 01-10 was indeed a high then there would be a bearish reversal at 1.2200, so really far away, and so a pretty bullish signal for the dollar. What I find interesting is that price has now dropped below the quarterly bearish at 1.1661, one day before the quarterly closing. He also said in a previous post that there could be a October high followed by a big move lower in the euro for November. So lets see if he is correct, will we elect the quarterly bearish and next week see a high then followed by the euro moving lower?

It will also be interesting to see if the Dollar index can elect the monthly bullish at 95.16, there are also additional reversal weekly and monthly for AUD, NZD and USDJPY so I guess ff these get elected i means the dollar should start/continue to strengthen over the next few months.

well actually I like the idea, but in my opinion over time, the way people make money is of course different.
people used to invest in gold only and of course only rich people can make investments, but now no longer, everyone can invest according to their finances.
and also various types of investments, making it easier for people to do it.