Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 200.

Risk Mgmt

member

Activity: 158

Merit: 16

Quote from: CoinCube on May 09, 2017, 10:37:14 PM

Quote from: CoinCube on May 09, 2017, 09:31:31 PM

Quote from: Remnant503 on May 09, 2017, 02:22:16 PM

Hello everyone,
I just joined this wonderful forum because I found the conversations are very interesting. I have been studying BTC for quite a while and finding the latest price increase is simply nuts! Why is it going up so much so fast? Anyone got a sensible answer?

Think of it like a tech stock.

Current Market Cap (billion USD)

Twitter 13.4

Snapchat 26.4

Bitcoin 28.7

Yahoo 47.7

Facebook 438.5

Market has decided Bitcoin is no longer equals a Twitter. Now it is about a Snapchat in value.

Given the underlying potential of the technology it is entirely possible that some large institutional investors have decided that it may be worth a Yahoo which if true bodes well for gains in the future. Grin

If MA is teaching me something - its this -- QUESTION: Why is it going up so much so fast? Anyone got a sensible answer?

ANSWER: Government Regulations on capital flows or Gold Imports/Exports of each respective Country and value of US$...all this maybe shifting those who can -- into bitcoin to preserve their wealth as their home currency sinks in purchasing power relative to US$
What we should also ask -- which Country or who is the primary buyer of Bitcoin ...is that possible to answer?

- IF I AM WRONG OR WAY OFF....PLS BE KIND TO HELP ME BETTER UNDERSTAND. THANK YOU

OROBTC

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1865

Quote from: sidhujag on May 09, 2017, 11:15:16 PM

Quote from: OROBTC on May 09, 2017, 03:33:36 PM

...

sidhujag

Forgive me but I did not understand your above comment.

I still think gold will not fall too much anytime in the near future. Not much below cost of production (varies company to company, and "cost of production" as I mentioned before is a slippery term).

EDIT: But I will give credit where credit is due: Bitcoin has been on a complete tear recently, gold has gone down slightly.

* * *

Armstrong is perhaps even more dubious on the future of Europe even with Macron winning in France:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/macrons-victory-may-be-disaster-for-merkel/

Europe is primed for social unrest as their governments do not care about their people, uncontrolled immigration, etc.

For those in the USA (like me), I would hesitate to invest any money in Europe now.

I'm just saying that production cost is around $700 so theres the magnet for gold and where its headed and also my friend gatorinla on Forexfactory has been saying it for years it needs to touch some bear targets down around 500ish.. looking likely now few years ago he was laughed at those numbers usually are respected though ive seen it first hand... i havent done an analysis on gold technically but makes sense based on our other views that its likely to go down and not up (remember I said next time btc breached gold its gonna be for good)

Well certainly over the last few weeks Bitcoin has way outperformed gold. I wish I had bought a lot more BTC over the years....

IMO, gold's main function is protection is somewhat akin to financial insurance with teh very real possibility of a huge price rise if there are certain kinds of financial crises that come to pass (very possible).

I would appreciate receiving any links you have that average production cost of gold would be lower than $1000 / toz, I have read some articles (most recently at "American Hard Assets" magazine (now defunct) which had a great article on how complex gold production cost calculations are).

SRSrocco closely follows energy and gold. I referenced his article a page or two back re costs of Barrick and Newmont, two major gold miners. Their costs are not too much lower than current market price, and there have been very few new gold discoveries of size in recent years.

I follow gold pretty closely (more so than Bitcoin), and $700 gold production cost seems very wrong. "They" would be producing A LOT more were that true.

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: OROBTC on May 09, 2017, 03:33:36 PM

...

sidhujag

Forgive me but I did not understand your above comment.

I still think gold will not fall too much anytime in the near future. Not much below cost of production (varies company to company, and "cost of production" as I mentioned before is a slippery term).

EDIT: But I will give credit where credit is due: Bitcoin has been on a complete tear recently, gold has gone down slightly.

* * *

Armstrong is perhaps even more dubious on the future of Europe even with Macron winning in France:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/macrons-victory-may-be-disaster-for-merkel/

Europe is primed for social unrest as their governments do not care about their people, uncontrolled immigration, etc.

For those in the USA (like me), I would hesitate to invest any money in Europe now.

I'm just saying that production cost is around $700 so theres the magnet for gold and where its headed and also my friend gatorinla on Forexfactory has been saying it for years it needs to touch some bear targets down around 500ish.. looking likely now few years ago he was laughed at those numbers usually are respected though ive seen it first hand... i havent done an analysis on gold technically but makes sense based on our other views that its likely to go down and not up (remember I said next time btc breached gold its gonna be for good)

CoinCube

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1055

Quote from: CoinCube on May 09, 2017, 09:31:31 PM

Quote from: Remnant503 on May 09, 2017, 02:22:16 PM

Hello everyone,
I just joined this wonderful forum because I found the conversations are very interesting. I have been studying BTC for quite a while and finding the latest price increase is simply nuts! Why is it going up so much so fast? Anyone got a sensible answer?

Think of it like a tech stock.

Current Market Cap (billion USD)

Twitter 13.4

Snapchat 26.4

Bitcoin 28.7

Yahoo 47.7

Facebook 438.5

Market has decided Bitcoin is no longer equals a Twitter. Now it is about a Snapchat in value.

Given the underlying potential of the technology it is entirely possible that some large institutional investors have decided that it may be worth a Yahoo which if true bodes well for gains in the future. Grin

OROBTC

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1865

Quote from: CoinCube on May 09, 2017, 09:47:40 PM

Quote from: OROBTC on May 09, 2017, 03:33:36 PM

...

EDIT: But I will give credit where credit is due: Bitcoin has been on a complete tear recently, gold has gone down slightly.

* * *

Yes I regret putting some money into gold over the last year. It slowed my BTC accumulation and as a result I have only hit 86% of my goal holdings at an overall higher cost then planned.

Now I have to decide if I want to pay much more for that last 14% or decide to stop at a lower amount of BTC.

Naah, you should regret nothing re buying gold. Gold is a bargain under $2000. Really! In the longer term you will clean-up with gold.

Gold is wealth. Gold is insurance against .gov malfeasance. Best Store of Wealth in town. [Hide it well]

I do hear you re BTC though. I have been buying small amounts for a long time (since it was some $600 before its first +/- $1300 peak), and more as it went down then up. I would have to do a lot of math, but I would guess that my average cost (counting premia from buying at BTC ATMs, etc.) would be about $1200 - $1300. No recent purchases though, it could go down below $1000 -- but who knows...

CoinCube

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1055

Quote from: OROBTC on May 09, 2017, 03:33:36 PM

...

EDIT: But I will give credit where credit is due: Bitcoin has been on a complete tear recently, gold has gone down slightly.

* * *

Yes I regret putting some money into gold over the last year. It slowed my BTC accumulation and as a result I have only hit 86% of my goal holdings at an overall higher cost then planned.

Now I have to decide if I want to pay much more for that last 14% or decide to stop at a lower amount of BTC.

OROBTC

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1865

...

sidhujag

Forgive me but I did not understand your above comment.

I still think gold will not fall too much anytime in the near future. Not much below cost of production (varies company to company, and "cost of production" as I mentioned before is a slippery term).

EDIT: But I will give credit where credit is due: Bitcoin has been on a complete tear recently, gold has gone down slightly.

* * *

Armstrong is perhaps even more dubious on the future of Europe even with Macron winning in France:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/macrons-victory-may-be-disaster-for-merkel/

Europe is primed for social unrest as their governments do not care about their people, uncontrolled immigration, etc.

For those in the USA (like me), I would hesitate to invest any money in Europe now.

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: OROBTC on May 07, 2017, 07:11:57 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 07, 2017, 04:11:29 PM

Quote from: Jumanji7 on May 07, 2017, 09:53:36 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on May 01, 2017, 12:02:34 PM

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

The cost of gold production begins at $700:

http://marketintelligence.spglobal.com/our-thinking/ideas/gold-mining-costs-fall-in-march-quarter

Thus gold price seems to be much higher than its production cost.

Thx thats what i thought.. it should be around 700

The cost of producing gold is a complez subject, many miners calculate it different ways. There are even several ways to calculate "All in Production Cost" for each mining company. It's a mess, investors usually know this, and there have been attempts to get a standardized way to calculate production costs (taking into account the initial investments, price of diesel fuel, etc., etc.).

The below is a link that claims (and hey I don't know) that gold production cost is strongly correlated to crude oil price:

https://srsroccoreport.com/who-really-controls-the-gold-price-the-answer-is-quite-surprising/

I have read over the past couple of years that if you include ALL COSTS, it would be around $1100 - $1200, on the average, to produce an ounce of gold. Many miners cannot do that, they just produce to cover their recurring costs and (try to) pay down debt...

Steve (author of of the above blog) writes often that there are very few new gold deposits being found, and they are small.

Kiss 700 all else is a lie.. my friend gatorinla on ff approves.if u dont know ask

OROBTC

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1865

Quote from: sidhujag on May 07, 2017, 04:11:29 PM

Quote from: Jumanji7 on May 07, 2017, 09:53:36 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on May 01, 2017, 12:02:34 PM

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

The cost of gold production begins at $700:

http://marketintelligence.spglobal.com/our-thinking/ideas/gold-mining-costs-fall-in-march-quarter

Thus gold price seems to be much higher than its production cost.

Thx thats what i thought.. it should be around 700

The cost of producing gold is a complez subject, many miners calculate it different ways. There are even several ways to calculate "All in Production Cost" for each mining company. It's a mess, investors usually know this, and there have been attempts to get a standardized way to calculate production costs (taking into account the initial investments, price of diesel fuel, etc., etc.).

The below is a link that claims (and hey I don't know) that gold production cost is strongly correlated to crude oil price:

https://srsroccoreport.com/who-really-controls-the-gold-price-the-answer-is-quite-surprising/

I have read over the past couple of years that if you include ALL COSTS, it would be around $1100 - $1200, on the average, to produce an ounce of gold. Many miners cannot do that, they just produce to cover their recurring costs and (try to) pay down debt...

Steve (author of of the above blog) writes often that there are very few new gold deposits being found, and they are small.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

I think my advice is usually more actionable than that of MA. (Shelby?)

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Jumanji7 on May 07, 2017, 09:53:36 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on May 01, 2017, 12:02:34 PM

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

The cost of gold production begins at $700:

http://marketintelligence.spglobal.com/our-thinking/ideas/gold-mining-costs-fall-in-march-quarter

Thus gold price seems to be much higher than its production cost.

Thx thats what i thought.. it should be around 700

Jumanji7

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 250

Quote from: OROBTC on May 01, 2017, 12:02:34 PM

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

The cost of gold production begins at $700:

http://marketintelligence.spglobal.com/our-thinking/ideas/gold-mining-costs-fall-in-march-quarter

Thus gold price seems to be much higher than its production cost.

AiloveYouks21

sr. member

Activity: 560

Merit: 250

IMHO Dollar will take a quick turn soon and will not be seen as a safe haven.
It's status as petro-dollar is already being contested, one of the few reasons the currency was able to keep it's head up during tougher times (stronger EURO etc.).

Will keep following this, very enlightening

Dario A.

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

Hello everybody,

Martin recently made a post where he talks about the ECM, It was the post called "Kim Jong-un The Kid Whose Father Never Spanked – Why 2017 Is The Crisis Year For Korea", and at some point he talks about the three components of his model: the wave frequency based on Pi of 8,6 years, the volatility component and the schema frequency which he does not reveal. I guess that the last one is related to the third dimension which for security reasons he does not reveal (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-schema-frequency/). Also for those who now the new yorker article "The secret cycle" he refers at the end that Pi may be related to dark matter, of which he also never shared.

Well what I would like to know is that if anyone has any ideas regarding that subjects that would like to share, any thoughts would be most welcome!

Thanks,

Dário A.

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: r0ach on May 01, 2017, 07:56:28 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 01, 2017, 03:58:49 AM

You have lost your marbles. Gold ia deader than ded. You havent gotten a word I have written

You repeat the false claim over and over that a centralized digital crapcoin is better than gold and silver. None of these coins are decentralized at all, but even if they were, they would still be worse. The fact they aren't decentralized just makes your statement all the more laughable. Centralized coins, or coins controlled by small rent seeking usury cartels, are no different than the fiat scam systems that already exist.

Example of where.you are wrong. Mimblewimble comes in and solves all of your problems
. It functions as a sidechain. Because it is a sidechain bitcoin extends its functionality. Your still not understanding. Well the market understands its the best teacher. Your gold will only drop in value in comparison to digital currencies. Any upticks will be sold into in gold.. any dumps will be bought up in crypto.

Since.you sold around $700usd btc you have been saying the same stuff over and over.while the market keeps on proving you wrong.. should give you a hint that your generalizations are incorrect and time to rethink everything you have assumed before you switched positions.

r0ach

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sidhujag on May 01, 2017, 03:58:49 AM

You have lost your marbles. Gold ia deader than ded. You havent gotten a word I have written

You repeat the false claim over and over that a centralized digital crapcoin is better than gold and silver. None of these coins are decentralized at all, but even if they were, they would still be worse. The fact they aren't decentralized just makes your statement all the more laughable. Centralized coins, or coins controlled by small rent seeking usury cartels, are no different than the fiat scam systems that already exist.

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: OROBTC on May 01, 2017, 12:02:34 PM

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

What is cost of production? Wouldnt silver have a better chance then because its used more in production?

OROBTC

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1865

...

(Posting less for a while because we are moving)

Agree with r0ach re price of gold cannot be below cost of production at least for long.

Also agree that SRSrocco has nice insights into Au and energy.

Re BTC, we'll see, it's had a nice run.

sidhujag

legendary

Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: r0ach on May 01, 2017, 02:30:02 AM

Quote from: sidhujag on May 01, 2017, 12:03:20 AM

It will take time for market to realize and some technological advancements for it to happen but rome wasnt built in a day. The architecture is still in development and might surprise you. By then ofcourse it will be too late for your equity.

It's not possible to make a decentralized cryptocurrency without abolishing the ability to mine on cruise control with no user input. You would need to create decentralized captchas or puzzles using some exotic snarks crypto. Then from there, the world will be a bizarre place where the poorest people sit in front of computer screens mindlessly solving captchas until they move up into the middle class. They will essentially be doing work of no value on a mass scale, so it's kind of ironic that would be considered an improvement when half the labor force on earth is doing literally nothing of use lol.

It might be a genius idea though as the perfect welfare or basic income system should the robots take all the jobs. I assume the robots would eventually be able to solve the captchas/puzzles as well, so it would just turn into a centralized coin with a single admin constantly trying to change the captchas to avoid AI. Besides the fact it's probably not even possible to find convergence with such a system, the real takeaway point is that there's no reason to even do it when nature has already given us a perfectly useable decentralized currency known as the noble metals (gold and silver) with thousands of years of distribution.

You have lost your marbles. Gold ia deader than ded. You havent gotten a word I have written

r0ach

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

Quote from: sidhujag on May 01, 2017, 12:03:20 AM

It will take time for market to realize and some technological advancements for it to happen but rome wasnt built in a day. The architecture is still in development and might surprise you. By then ofcourse it will be too late for your equity.

It's not possible to make a decentralized cryptocurrency without abolishing the ability to mine on cruise control with no user input. You would need to create decentralized captchas or puzzles using some exotic snarks crypto. Then from there, the world will be a bizarre place where the poorest people sit in front of computer screens mindlessly solving captchas until they move up into the middle class. They will essentially be doing work of no value on a mass scale, so it's kind of ironic that would be considered an improvement when half the labor force on earth is doing literally nothing of use lol.

It might be a genius idea though as the perfect welfare or basic income system should the robots take all the jobs. I assume the robots would eventually be able to solve the captchas/puzzles as well, so it would just turn into a centralized coin with a single admin constantly trying to change the captchas to avoid AI. Besides the fact it's probably not even possible to find convergence with such a system, the real takeaway point is that there's no reason to even do it when nature has already given us a perfectly useable decentralized currency known as the noble metals (gold and silver) with thousands of years of distribution.

Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 200. (Read 647176 times)