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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 203. (Read 647176 times)

full member
Activity: 252
Merit: 100
April 15, 2017, 03:43:01 AM
A hoax for the Europeans that they are not all under the dictatorship, just like the Scotsman has ever done.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 15, 2017, 03:07:55 AM
Whales will do what makes the most economics sense, i.e. that which is most profitable. Thus they will do what I wrote.

Math and economics game theory isn't something you can argue with. It is either stated correctly, or you must point out the error. There was no valid error pointed out by anyone about my logic.

I wrote "I think" as a way of saying I am open to reading anyone valid errors in my logic. So far, I have seen no such valid errors pointed out.

The future has not yet come to prove (or disprove) anyone's logic.

To say one's logic of the future is correct as of today, is to suggest self-fulfilling prophecy.

Spiritually, that is akin to handing one's creative power to a 3rd-party that does not have one's interest at heart.

The only way I can see that the fees won't rise egregiously on BTC on chain (with $trillionaire/$billionaire whales free riding on the rest of us) is if something can compete with Bitcoin such that the whales feel they are losing control of the blockchain (and eventually global) economy, and/or if fungible money can be removed as important from civilization.

Neither of those two caveats are likely to come true in the near-term. TPTB already have their master plan underway for collapsing the global economy in sovereign debt collapse with $quadrillions of derivatives, war, and pestilence. This will accelerate this May 2017 and even more egregiously accelerate in 2018.

Such caveats might start to become competitive with the plans of the global elite after another decade or so. In the meantime, such caveats will be nascent fledging saplings that are growing very fast, but not yet large enough to compete with TPTB.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 15, 2017, 12:44:17 AM
Sell all crypto-currency to fiat IMMEDIATELY. BTC will dive -30%. Altcoins will decline even more. SegWit and scaling has been defeated on both Bitcoin and (at least near-term) also Litecoin. Also there are macroeconomics things going on which will also hit gold and every asset except USD. Store your money in USD or altcoin USDT (dollar peg) temporarily until this dip has concluded.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18594538



Re: Take profits now!

In my opinion, going "all-in" or "all-out" at this very moment is dangerous (only exception: if you are totally satisfied with your profits until now).

The scaling debate still dictates the price movements. In every single moment the following two things could happen:
- some pool jumps to BU and gets it near or over 50%, making hard fork a real risk -> very bearish (target: ~700)
- some pool jumps to Segwit and gets it near or over 50%  -> bullish / sideways (~1200-1350, but perhaps not strong enough for a new ATH)
- UASF gets traction and Segwit approval is very likely -> very bullish (new ATH, target ~2000)
- a compromise solution (EB, Segwit2MB) gets Core and majority miner approval -> also very bullish

That's why I wouldn't take sides still. And I disagree with AnonyMint: I think no side has "won" until now.

None of those are possibilities. 0% chance.

I think no side has "won" until now.

And no side will ever win.

Reading the following threads (not just the linked post) will help you understand:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18526721
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18571238
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18579825
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.18570031

The above link to all my points on the Scalepocalypse.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 11:19:56 PM
If Armstrong is right about gold (down to $800, then to $2000+), well great.  I have serenely held gold through bear markets before without anxiety.

Probably only $950 not $800s.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
April 14, 2017, 07:41:22 PM
As for bitcoin:

This market is flat out fraud.  $30 $41 spread between Finex and Bitstamp.  Since we all know Bitfinex is an insolvent exchange that trades against it's own customers and also steals their money, I'm guessing that spread is also propped up by non-existent money just like Gox.  Why are people willing to put up a $2 million buy wall on Bitfinex but no other exchange to try and prop up price?  Because Bitfinex probably isn't even using real money, just imaginary exchange digits.  

I've been saying BitFinex is the new Gox forever and here it is.  There is no valid price of bitcoin as long as Bitfinex is the market maker.

The current chart looks like shit and is forming a down channel and you got fraudsters on Bitfinex trying to manipulate it up with imaginary money that probably doesn't exist:



I agree. I sold my BTC for USD.

I am also sold out of LTC.

I would also suggest hedging your silver and gold. Price is going to take a nose drive in May.

Move everything to USD and wait.


I never was much on Technical Analysis (never did any of the three guys I know who were into it make a good and verifiable prediction).

Excellent timing re selling LTC after the BIG MOVE you predicted, iamnotback.

Gold & Bearing Guy is going to hold his gold, BTC and US$ as I have no idea what's going to happen.  But, now I have you two (r0ach and iamnotback) making clear and understandable predictions, so I'll keep my eyes out.  I never made money on "trading" either, I did great though when I picked good assets and held.

If Armstrong is right about gold (down to $800, then to $2000+), well great.  I have serenely held gold through bear markets before without anxiety.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 07:31:09 PM
As for bitcoin:

This market is flat out fraud.  $30 $41 spread between Finex and Bitstamp.  Since we all know Bitfinex is an insolvent exchange that trades against it's own customers and also steals their money, I'm guessing that spread is also propped up by non-existent money just like Gox.  Why are people willing to put up a $2 million buy wall on Bitfinex but no other exchange to try and prop up price?  Because Bitfinex probably isn't even using real money, just imaginary exchange digits.  

I've been saying BitFinex is the new Gox forever and here it is.  There is no valid price of bitcoin as long as Bitfinex is the market maker.

The current chart looks like shit and is forming a down channel and you got fraudsters on Bitfinex trying to manipulate it up with imaginary money that probably doesn't exist:



I agree. I sold my BTC for USD.

I am also sold out of LTC.

I would also suggest hedging your silver and gold. Price is going to take a nose drive in May.

Move everything to USD and wait.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 06:30:39 PM
Is rpietila also part of that group? what will happen to him? he seemed like a cool guy.

All his funds (have been and) are being stolen from him, because he tried to compete with Bitcoin.

He is not mistaken that he has been targeted. He is mistaken that he can defeat the forces against him, because for one thing he doesn't even understand the technology he needs to know in order to defeat the TMSR.

Re: PRE-ANN: People's Mark - basic income local currency in Finland - launch Oct2016

- is currently executing Kansanmarkka, a debt-free basic income currency, designed to oust Euro from Finland (and the world) by voluntary choice by the people. Participation in Kansanmarkka is free, you actually get paid.

Centralised DB

This is a technological and political-economic flaw. A Nash equilibrium immutable protocol should be the law, not humans.

A system mutable by humans is a power vacuum.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 06:14:44 PM
How can they find out I own bitcoin?

You have no secrets from the national security agencies. I don't care how many mixers you use, you have no secrets from them. Find old discussions between @smooth and myself on that topic.

Why doesn't MP dump too? he is a public figure so he will be the first to get trapped by the anti bitcoin government control operation.

He is already one of the $billionaires (will probably be $trillionaire by 2030). He is a member of their shadow elite's club named The Most Serene Republic.

Do you need the evidence. MP alerted the TMSR which controls Wikileaks and this is why Wikileaks destroyed Hillary's campaign. Do some research on the connection between Rothschild and Julian Assange. Btw, Julian was a cyberpunk (the mailing list discussions) before he launched Wikileaks of which so were other players such as Hal Finney and James A. Donald (see my quotes of him in the Dark Enlightenment thread and note he was first person to respond to Satoshi on the metzdown mailing list whet Bitcoin was announced Nov. 1, 2008).

It's harder to trap the small guy that only owns a couple 5-21 BTC, it's not public, uses Tor etc.
If by 2030 I have several million dollars that I cannot enjoy because I can't even cash them out because the fee is higher than the million dollars I have im going to be pissed.

They don't need to trap you. You'll get caught in their regulations because you will get kicked off the blockchain by the exorbitant transaction fees due to the constrained block size.

Also they can create war and other problems for us that cause us to need to spend our BTC sooner than we anticipated.

If by 2030 I have several million dollars that I cannot enjoy because I can't even cash them out because the fee is higher than the million dollars I have im going to be pissed.

You'll be forced to cash out of BTC before that (to some regulated financial system such as Lightning Networks, SEPA, etc) or hold your BTC a regulated exchange.

Or possibly there will be another blockchain choice such as yours truly. Wink Ethereum is also attempting to scale the blockchain. I will make a post comparing Ethereum's technology to mine in Altcoin Discussion soon...



if your basing it on moving 1btc... the answer is naturally when it becomes costly to the point of over 1% (so 0.01btc fee) to move it people will lose preferential desire to hold bitcoin.

I disagree. People will see an incentive to hold bitcoin as long as the price keeps going to the moon. If the fee is 0.01 BTC, but the price of 1 BTC is $10,000 with prospects of going $100,000 BTC, then who is the idiot that doesn't want to hold that?

As long as the price keeps going up and the fees allow you to move your wealth when needed, it will have an incentive to be the holder's coin.

If the fee becomes higher than 99% of people's wealth and only billionaires see a point in using it, well that's a problem, everyone else will have dumped and only a few will be using it (and I don't see how it can survive in this state, since barely any transaction volume would be going on for miners to be worth mining)

You have an incomplete mathematical conceptualization.

You can't just analyze from the perspective of a percentage fee, because the blocksize is constrained.

It can become possible that transacting in morsels as small as 1 BTC is no longer possible.

So let me get this straight.

Even people holding millions of dollars worth of bitcoin, will see their bitcoins trapped because transaction fees will be worth millions of dollars? What fees are we talking about by 2030? (at supposedly around $500k price)

Well we can estimate given that BTC trades 1/100th of its market cap daily. So @ $500k per BTC thus a $10 trillion market cap, thus $100 billion transacted daily. Given 144 blocks per day, that is $600 million per block.

Let's assume that whales will put complex settlement transactions on the blockchain with many inputs and outputs so perhaps only 100 transactions per block. Presuming that whales are willing to pay 0.1% fee for security (i.e. $600,000 per block), that means a minimum transaction fee of $6000. If whales are willing to pay more for security, say 1%, then minimum transaction fee of $60,000.

However, I think whales will end up demanding a kickback from miners for their transaction fees, so that miners can jack up fees on non-whales. Whales can make this demand because they can refuse to send their transactions to miners which won't deal. Yet non-whales can't make a credible threat, because miners who generally offered lower fees would end up losing hashrate relative to those miners who didn't defect from the fee market. Thus I think you will probably see miners colluding to extract the maximum fees that gouge non-whales.

So perhaps 10% fees so $600,000 per transaction. You'll pay it because you have no choice, whereas the whales will have exempted themselves from the fee. So in other words, we will be paying the fees for the whales, eventually the millionaires paying exorbitant fees in order to transact unregulated.

You'll of course be able to avoid that exorbitant fees by going through a regulated option as I explained previously.

So the bottom line is the whales will be free from regulation and we will not. We remain slaves.



No one wants a bitcoin network where they'll have to pay more than 1% of the transaction amount as a fee

The whales do because they will be paying 0% fees, as I explained in my prior post.

And everyone who can afford it, will still want to hodl BTC, because the price is going to the moon.

So it will be a process that as the price rises, more and more riff-raff get priced out of the block chain. But those who remain will hodl because the price is rising logistically.

Really you need to think this out. It works very well economically and Satoshi was an evil genius.



Satoshi did this minimization because it is good design sense, it is sufficient security and collision resistance, it provides an extra layer of protection against any unknown cryptanalysis interaction between SHA256 (or RIPE160) alone and ECDSA, and it helps to market the product to the n00bs as scalable (even though Satoshi was deception in this regard) in Bitcoin's nascent stage. Also SHA256 before RIPE160 provides an extra layer of protection against any unknown cryptanalysis breakage on collisions for RIPE160 alone. For example, SHA256 has a Merkle-Damgard length extension weakness when not doubled with itself or another hash, which tangentially btw would provide someone with a strong hint as to where to look for inventing the AsicBoost to make SHA256 mining 30% more efficient.

Satoshi was so genius that he designed the AsicBoost into the design.

I can say that with great confidence because double-hashing defeats attacks such as AsicBoost, and Satoshi did double-hashing as a precaution every where it could be required in his design except for the proof-of-work.

He managed to think far ahead on the game theory and realized he would need a poison pill to ensure that no one could modify his evil design.

So therefor he created a design that he knew the Chinese ASIC manufacturers would figure out how to make covert AsicBoost and that if it was patented outside of China, then this would be the poison pill against any changes to the protocol (as I have recently explained at @gmaxwell's Redditard discussion).

@dinofelis STFU on your nonsense about Satoshi wasn't genius. I've strongly refuted all of your nonsense technical claims. Stop your lying nonsense.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 01:54:52 PM
I've read Armstrong's Socrates gold update reports on March 3, March 27, and April 10.

My interpretation is we can expect gold to push up to as high as $1340 maximum (might only reach $1289) due to uncertain expectation of Le Pen victory tumult in France and Trump's military escalation.

But this will be the last time for you tinfoil hats to take profits before a likely flash crash to just below $1000 before we begin the bullish SLINGSHOT where gold aligns with DJIA and $USD.

I seeing between the tea leaves that a likely failure of Le Pen in France is perhaps the catalyst for the exhale on gold. Trump's early failures are having a negative impact on Le Pen's chances. Then all hell will break lose later in 2017 and gold will SLINGSHOT back up.

Or perhaps Le Pen will look weak in the primary but actually win in May, so that could be another reason for more rapid SLINGSHOT effect.


I am beginning to think that Armstrong may be right on his SLINGSHOT idea.  It's a pattern we have seen before, and Martin likes patterns.  Now that he has made a fairly clear and easy to understand prediction, this will be a good test of his thinking (subject to unpredictable events like Le Pen, etc.).

Interesting comment re Trumps' early failures making a dent in Le Pen's chances.

Armstrong has reiterated the prediction again this week in the April 13th gold report.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 14, 2017, 01:46:18 PM
How can they find out I own bitcoin?

You have no secrets from the national security agencies. I don't care how many mixers you use, you have no secrets from them. Find old discussions between @smooth and myself on that topic.

Why doesn't MP dump too? he is a public figure so he will be the first to get trapped by the anti bitcoin government control operation.

He is already one of the $billionaires (will probably be $trillionaire by 2030). He is a member of their shadow elite's club named The Most Serene Republic.

Do you need the evidence. MP alerted the TMSR which controls Wikileaks and this is why Wikileaks destroyed Hillary's campaign. Do some research on the connection between Rothschild and Julian Assange. Btw, Julian was a cyberpunk (the mailing list discussions) before he launched Wikileaks of which so were other players such as Hal Finney and James A. Donald (see my quotes of him in the Dark Enlightenment thread and note he was first person to respond to Satoshi on the metzdown mailing list whet Bitcoin was announced Nov. 1, 2008).

It's harder to trap the small guy that only owns a couple 5-21 BTC, it's not public, uses Tor etc.
If by 2030 I have several million dollars that I cannot enjoy because I can't even cash them out because the fee is higher than the million dollars I have im going to be pissed.

They don't need to trap you. You'll get caught in their regulations because you will get kicked off the blockchain by the exorbitant transaction fees due to the constrained block size.

Also they can create war and other problems for us that cause us to need to spend our BTC sooner than we anticipated.

If by 2030 I have several million dollars that I cannot enjoy because I can't even cash them out because the fee is higher than the million dollars I have im going to be pissed.

You'll be forced to cash out of BTC before that (to some regulated financial system such as Lightning Networks, SEPA, etc) or hold your BTC a regulated exchange.

Or possibly there will be another blockchain choice such as yours truly. Wink Ethereum is also attempting to scale the blockchain. I will make a post comparing Ethereum's technology to mine in Altcoin Discussion soon...
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
April 14, 2017, 09:41:27 AM
As for bitcoin:

This market is flat out fraud.  $30 spread between Finex and Bitstamp.  Since we all know Bitfinex is an insolvent exchange that trades against it's own customers and also steals their money, I'm guessing that spread is also propped up by non-existent money just like Gox.  Why are people willing to put up a $2 million buy wall on Bitfinex but no other exchange to try and prop up price?  Because Bitfinex probably isn't even using real money, just imaginary exchange digits. 

I've been saying BitFinex is the new Gox forever and here it is.  There is no valid price of bitcoin as long as Bitfinex is the market maker.

The current chart looks like shit and is forming a down channel and you got fraudsters on Bitfinex trying to manipulate it up with imaginary money that probably doesn't exist:


Market doesnt repeat but it may rhyme. Do the opposite of what you think and you will be fine!
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
April 14, 2017, 08:58:11 AM
As for bitcoin:

This market is flat out fraud.  $30 $41 spread between Finex and Bitstamp.  Since we all know Bitfinex is an insolvent exchange that trades against it's own customers and also steals their money, I'm guessing that spread is also propped up by non-existent money just like Gox.  Why are people willing to put up a $2 million buy wall on Bitfinex but no other exchange to try and prop up price?  Because Bitfinex probably isn't even using real money, just imaginary exchange digits.  

I've been saying BitFinex is the new Gox forever and here it is.  There is no valid price of bitcoin as long as Bitfinex is the market maker.

The current chart looks like shit and is forming a down channel and you got fraudsters on Bitfinex trying to manipulate it up with imaginary money that probably doesn't exist:


legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
April 13, 2017, 10:48:42 AM
I've read Armstrong's Socrates gold update reports

But this will be the last time for you tinfoil hats to take profits before a likely flash crash to just below $1000

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
April 13, 2017, 10:47:52 AM
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/turkey-to-confiscate-gold-in-new-clever-way-to-help-citizens-earn-money/

So, it looks like the .gov of Turkey wants their citizen's gold.  They are even offering to pay interest on any gold that any foolish (erm, "patriotic") people may loan them.

So, who would believe that Turkey would give anyone a good deal for their gold?  LOL!

India tried something similar, it failed miserably.  This attempt will also likely fail.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
April 12, 2017, 02:47:55 PM
...

Here's an Armstrong post that even our skeptical of Armstrong guy r0ach will like:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/turkey-to-confiscate-gold-in-new-clever-way-to-help-citizens-earn-money/

So, it looks like the .gov of Turkey wants their citizen's gold.  They are even offering to pay interest on any gold that any foolish (erm, "patriotic") people may loan them.

So, who would believe that Turkey would give anyone a good deal for their gold?  LOL!
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
April 12, 2017, 10:01:17 AM
I've read Armstrong's Socrates gold update reports on March 3, March 27, and April 10.

My interpretation is we can expect gold to push up to as high as $1340 maximum (might only reach $1289) due to uncertain expectation of Le Pen victory tumult in France and Trump's military escalation.

But this will be the last time for you tinfoil hats to take profits before a likely flash crash to just below $1000 before we begin the bullish SLINGSHOT where gold aligns with DJIA and $USD.

I seeing between the tea leaves that a likely failure of Le Pen in France is perhaps the catalyst for the exhale on gold. Trump's early failures are having a negative impact on Le Pen's chances. Then all hell will break lose later in 2017 and gold will SLINGSHOT back up.

Or perhaps Le Pen will look weak in the primary but actually win in May, so that could be another reason for more rapid SLINGSHOT effect.


I am beginning to think that Armstrong may be right on his SLINGSHOT idea.  It's a pattern we have seen before, and Martin likes patterns.  Now that he has made a fairly clear and easy to understand prediction, this will be a good test of his thinking (subject to unpredictable events like Le Pen, etc.).

Interesting comment re Trumps' early failures making a dent in Le Pen's chances.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 12, 2017, 01:03:14 AM
I've read Armstrong's Socrates gold update reports on March 3, March 27, and April 10.

My interpretation is we can expect gold to push up to as high as $1340 maximum (might only reach $1289) due to uncertain expectation of Le Pen victory tumult in France and Trump's military escalation.

But this will be the last time for you tinfoil hats to take profits before a likely flash crash to just below $1000 before we begin the bullish SLINGSHOT where gold aligns with DJIA and $USD.

I seeing between the tea leaves that a likely failure of Le Pen in France is perhaps the catalyst for the exhale on gold. Trump's early failures are having a negative impact on Le Pen's chances. Then all hell will break lose later in 2017 and gold will SLINGSHOT back up.

Or perhaps Le Pen will look weak in the primary but actually win in May, so that could be another reason for more rapid SLINGSHOT effect.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 11, 2017, 03:46:39 PM
40% increase!? That's a big call. I think there might be a pump to coincide with the news that Segwit is activated on litecoin, cause that's what pumpers so (make sure their pump coincides with news) - but it will be short-lived, as people simply won't use litecoin for anything.

I said "if it doesn't break below the uptrend line". It isn't a call (prediction). It is an analysis. Although I do think it is likely to not break significantly below the upthrend line, yet this is still not a 100% prediction.

All my money is invested in LTC right now.

Click the above quote to see the compelling chart.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
April 11, 2017, 09:46:22 AM
Im bearish LTC until sub $1 but i would buy segwit coins that are merge mined. Much profit.

Merge-mining is fundamentally insecure. It is one of the reasons Side-chains are insolubly insecure.
Isnt that how btc txs will be spread out to alts.. through asset transfers using 5 of 7 multisig

I'm not following you. What are talking about?
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
April 11, 2017, 09:40:37 AM
Im bearish LTC until sub $1 but i would buy segwit coins that are merge mined. Much profit.

Merge-mining is fundamentally insecure. It is one of the reasons Side-chains are insolubly insecure.
Isnt that how btc txs will be spread out to alts.. through asset transfers using 5 of 7 multisig
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