Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 254. (Read 647062 times)

I see you continue to attack the messenger instead of the message. Have you not any logic to add about the recent discussion or is your jealousy of me the person just all too obvious.

Again who are you? You refuse to share.


Don't forget my published prediction of the silver move from $22 to $48, then back down to $25 many months before it happened in 2011 (and did you know that I got fucked over in the Philippines not enabling me to profit on my prediction! If I had my investment in an ETF, my sell order at the peak and short would have been honored! Not to mention that most of my metal was stolen by the only vault provider in Manila you jack ass, and there is no way to sue because they refuse to give accurate accounting!):

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

Btw, I correctly predicted the low of Bitcoin at $150 first time, and way before it happened. I predicted the fall from the $600s to $300s, and the $150 low. I thought it would deadcat bounce and then go to lower lows, because...

In fact, I mentioned it day before yesterday:


The gold to $850 is still on the table. Nothing with that has changed. As predicted, the dollar and USA stocks went up and the pound crashed towards parity as predicted. This is why gold is back down in the $1200s, on its way probably to $1050 again and lower (we might get a few more deadcat bounces along the way).

Sorry dollar up, gold down. That has not changed.

My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold as a tinfoil hat asset. Because Satoshi even pitched BTC as gold in his whitepaper. And I know many of early adopters in BTC came from being tinfoil hats (including myself and Bitcoin millionaire rpietila). Btw, I had more silver than rpietila and had it not been for my problem in 2012 with my health and family breakup then I would have been poised to invest $100,000 in BTC at $10 in January 2013. I told rpietila to go ahead, but I told him I had been destroyed by events in 2012 and couldn't follow him. That is fate. But my destiny is not yet complete.

Any way, back to the issue at hand, you should remember that in this thread, I told everyone numerous times that it was my theory that BTC might be correlated to gold, but that I wasn't sure and that I could be wrong. And so I was wrong, but I also admitted at the time that I wasn't sure. Do I need to make 5 or more quotes of me repeating that before in order to convince your rabid ass to go hide under a rock where you belong?


I don't have loyal followers you jealous loser.

I share my thoughts openly so that losers like you can take pot shots at me from behind your secrecy.


You never came off Ignore. I clicked to read your message only because I know you need a good slapdown.

And be my guest to please come back and admit you are wrong later.

Don't disappear with your tail between your front legs.

In other words, you're smart with investments but circumstances. I get it.
Please remind how your prediction from last year of BTC@150 and gold@800 has turned out?
Your followers are loyally waiting to buy both at lower prices.
Learning from mistakes would mean to stop making silly predictions when you got no clue.
Be my guest and put me on ignore again, because truth hurts.

I am obviously not writing to the second class of reader. I don't feel any need whatsoever to encourage any one in any circumstance to diversify in pathetic precious metals. That is how pathetic I think they are. Diversify into USA dollars and USA stock market.

A few well recognized gold coins for a "get of Dodge" plan. Yeah okay, but that isn't an investment. It is akin to buying a gun. It is an expense.

Some bullion to drool over and fondle, okay that is another expense for rich boys akin to buying a Corvette or Ferrari. I have held 5 Krugs in my hand. Feels awesome.

I am intentionally ridiculing those who stack precious metal. I am embarrassed that I used to be one of them. Those who think they will leave this useless metal to their children as some sort of accomplishment. These guys may even be my friends, and I am trying to wake them up from the severity of their mistake.


I wouldn't have lost the fortune I earned developing computer software if I hadn't become a silverbug following Jason Hommel back in 2006. And shipped my physical metal to the Philippines!

Precious metal bugs are irrational extremists, who are locked and loaded in their basements. They are goofy insane. They may be smart in other ways, but they have a few screws loose in the noggin.

If you believe gold and silver are great investments, then buy an ETF. But noooo, y'all 'bugs are preparing for the end of the world scenario so an ETF isn't reliable. But in the collapse scenario, their goofy silver dimes are as useful as eating concrete.


If we get to that level of collapse, then the least of your worries with be your monetary stash. And precious metals won't function either. You'll be fighting for food, security, medicine, and primitive needs.

You might as well be speaking about Jessie Livermore also, the greatest speculator of all time who shorted the Great Depression when all the other idiots were on the wrong side of trade. He lost the $95 million before he died.

At least I learned something from experiences and mistakes. Btw, I suggest that when you don't know someone's circumstances, then you shouldn't conclude they lost their money due to investment decisions alone. In my case, I was pressured by a family situation and also emergency illness. And also I was pressured to leave the USA by the actions of a same family member which endangered our mutual custody of our children. If you even had a clue as to all the incompatible balls I was juggling at that time, then maybe you might be more rational in your judgement.

Instead of attacking people you do not like, instead why not attack the logic of the message. But losers do what you do, so you know what I expect from you in the future. Loser. Prove me wrong. What have you accomplished? What is your identity? What is your life story?

Yeah take your pot shots from behind your own secrecy. Nice. Loser.

Now I remember why I have you on Ignore.

You've said numerous times you're poor as a church mouse (well, close enough) and you give investment advice here? Seems legit.

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.

You should be buying BTC aggressively and plan to diversify into any best-of-breed altcoins at the right timing. For example, once XMR and ZEC (Zcash) bottoms, you should be buying aggressively, which will probably after the current up move in BTC matures.

Those who stay in precious metals are going to see losses in 2017 (due to a surging dollar) and then only at most a 4 X gain from current prices over next several years.

Those in solid crypto-currency speculations are going to see 10 - 100 X gain in that same timeframe.

If the entire world sinks into a 600 year Dark Age, then peak oil will be least of your worries. And you can't eat silver dimes. In Japan for 600+ years, rice was the only currency.

deisik, correct.

Correct. Food, security, medicine, and sin products. Not some silly silver dimes that have no primitive utility and last used to be currency 50 years ago (and for the most part not really currency all over the world since a century ago).

You lack the capability of clear logic.


Of course there is. Technology would be precisely the way humans would try to subvert the crisis, because it is the most efficient. Smartphones use very little power (can be charged with a solar panel or even a hand crank) and WiFi mesh networking technology is already being looked at by Google and others. Necessity is the mother of accelerated "seat of the pants" innovation. We have the hardware in everyone's hand. We programmers can add mesh networking in a heartbeat when we must have it.

We don't absolutely have to use cellular towers. They are more efficient, but we can get low bandwidth needed for crypto-transactions done in other ways such as WiFi mesh and/or HAM radio.


What a tinfoil hat dolt. Iron used to be a precious metal. The commodities are on an inexorable decline in relative value. Did you entirely miss this point from my famous essay which CoinCube cited in the OP of the Economic Devastation thread. There is a chart there from the Economist magazine which would be very eye opening for you.


Obviously you've been fooled by Rothschilds-funded propaganda and then you claim you don't want to be his slave. Lol.

r0ach you have a lot to learn about the realities of the world. And I don't have the time to teach you.

I will just tell you that my father was the West Coast Division Head Attorney for Exxon in the 1980s and after a General Counsel for THUMS a consortium of the major oil companies. I know some things you do not know.


A confluence of technologies is actively transforming our energy economy as we speak.


BS. Some entities tried to corner the market (mines). There is abundance of rare earths. You are a Malthusian fool.


Nonsense. There is so much silver in the ground, we will never get it all out in 10,000 years. Also for example, as needed by necessity technology will advance and there will bots that can follow an ore vein and mine at the same time as exploring.


Blah, blah. More self masturbation, armchair useless talk.

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iamnotback

I have now seen several Mark Dice videos, they are hilarious (if you discount the feelings of doom for our country based on the ignorance of our people). 

My favorite was the one where he is offering a FREE 1 oz Au Canadian Maple to anyone who could guess the current price of gold within a very reasonable 25% (some $1600 at the time he filmed it).  In his video, he asks some 10 people to guess, in two cases he loosened his rules to allow the coin to be given away if they guessed within 50%!  NO ONE won.

My favorite guess was from the young lady who guessed $3.00.

We're doomed!

There's lots of Thorium laying around you can use for nuclear energy, but the point was that the skillset to do so is probably absent after a dark ages and you would have to work your way back up using something like coal again as a base except all the coal and oil is gone or only located somewhere like Antarctica.

I tend to disagree. You may be right in this very case, but overall, as history shows, there is always something that we simply don't know about yet (haven't discovered it or the ways to use it). Who could ever think about using nuclear energy when oil became mainstream in the second half of the 19th century? So, most likely, we would be hitting the limit of our knowledge about what could be made into a resource, but not the actual lack of resources due to some existential limit...

In fact, we will never know which wall we hit

Yes, the "at what price" is the problem.  I forget the figures offhand, but I think we used something like 1/3rd of known deposits so there's still a lot left, but we took all the cheap stuff first!  I think oil used to be cheaper than water once in Texas.  Seemingly infinite energy allows a massive expansion and "progress" of civilization, and that era of practically free energy will never be repeated and can only go downhill from here.  If we have a big world war, we go from rebuilding with practically free and infinite energy like after WW2, to a completely different story now.  

It might be a part of the Fermi paradox, difficulty in rebuilding after a dark age as complexity of civilization continues to increase in terms of labor skills required + energy required to put it back together.  You might only get one chance to progress to a certain point capabale of leaving the planet and accumulating resources elsewhere, or if you fall before reaching that piont, you can never get back to it again.

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r0ach and iamnotback

I addressed part of the currency matter in a nearby thread, but in sum I believe that silver coins would only be used in a catastrophic SHTF (perhaps the more ominous TEOTWAWKI).

Modern history has shown that CURRENCIES (strong ones like the US$ or old German D-Mark) are typically used in crisis situations.  Argentina and former Yugoslavia (as iamnotback pointed) are countries I have examined myself, and they did not revert to silver (nor gold).  As long as there is reasonable confidence in the "strong" currency, the convenience of using currency vs. PMs is the deciding factor.

A world-class Internet disaster would take down Bitcoin as a reasonable alternative, even if in theory it could "work" (paper wallets, etc.).  If Bitcoin's use is so limited now, it would be used much less without electricity or a functioning Internet.  (Granted, the 'Net going down seems unlikely.)

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I worked briefly in the oil business (long ago) and maintain some contacts.  One is a professional geologist (a PhD, who worked as a prized "oil finder" for a major) who told me "There's plenty of oil."

I did not grill him ("at what price", etc.), but I have my doubts that the oil-hating Left has Peak Oil correct.

My *hunch* is that innovations and bright people will come along and resolve many of the energy issues.  Oil is way DOWN in price from its 2007 peaks of nearly $140.

We will just have to see.  "Peak Oil" is a still unresolved matter.

* * *

Re silver and rare earths running out, well so far pricing in rare earths would not reflect that (else there would be some people, companies and countries hoarding -- people who think like me, I actually own 11 oz of iridium).

Perhaps the rare earth metal most sought is dysprosium (for use in making rare earth magnets more permanent), here is a page worth taking a look at:

http://www.kitco.com/strategic-metals/

Note dysprosium...  The price is down 90% from the days when the rare earths starting getting hyped.

You are wrong.  When complex systems collapse, they always revert to a more primitive state.  There is no viable scenario on earth where the global economy experiences any type of serious meltdown and immediately jumps to an even more complex state (bitcoin).  The paper bills will be the main thing imploding because the coinage has an actual floor to it.  The cost to produce a nickel varies between around 5-8 cents and a penny is around 1.7 cents, so it's plausible that several denominations of coins would just keep on trucking and be utilized even if the paper currency went to zero.

This is not a sunk cost fallacy, the nickel is 75% copper and 25% nickel, so it has actual real value and doesn't even matter if the dollar implodes.  The same dynamic will bring gold and silver coins out of the woodwork in a financial crisis and they will be accepted.  The majority of wealth holders in the world are old people who can't even comprehend what a Bitcoin is, and will not trust any type of wealth preservation tool besides what they can hold in their hand and defend with a rifle after they all figure out they're being robbed.

There is a common saying that there's always been currency crisis in nations like Argentina, but never a world crisis that affects the reserve currency or every currency at the same time.  This means many people in those countries just attempted to use a foreign currency in it's place like the federal reserve note.  When that is not a viable solution due to all currency being affected at once, they will be forced to seek out local coinage that has an actual price floor attached to it in it's place, unlike the paper biills.


Peak oil is obviously real because we extract all the low hanging fruit first (the cheapest oil), leaving the more expensive oil last, and then the oil market eventually has thermodynamic collapse once you take this idea to it's conclusion for the same reason we don't mine resources in space.  Even if you believe in abiotic oil, we use it far faster than it would replenish itself in cheap to extract places.  The fact that anyone on earth EVER bothered with shale oil at all proves we have hit peak oil.  Some will claim shale oil was just a "boondoggle" and not proof of this fact, but it's not true.  

Global conventional oil production peaked in 2004.  Unconventional oil sources temporarily gave the illusion that it didn't.  Unconventional oil sources, which give you less energy gained per energy spent, are not viable to sustain the inefficient logistics of modern civilization where people drive 40 miles solely to buy a $5 McDonalds meal.  A shift would occur where parts of civilization become much more vertically integrated and efficient (but also a slave system), and others would probably become more primitive and agrarian.

None of these inevitabilities are obvious to anyone because all of the markets are currently rigged and distorted.



WHAT battery technology?  I sure as hell don't see it.  Even if you created this supposed miracle battery, it might be viable for small vehicles or motorcycles, but not for powering heavy machinery that's used to actually make industry function and extract resources from the ground.  Powering semi-trucks with batteries also seems to be a pipe dream.



It is estimated that within around 50 years we will run out of a lot of rare earth materials used in industry.  The timeline for silver is even sooner, around 20-30 years.  There is not a silver supply crunch problem, there is a supply crunch problem for everything.



It's called not obfuscating the power structure with fake decentralization (house and senate which are just front groups for a man behind the curtain) so that people can just kill a single entity when they become tyrants to fix the problem.  This is why a constitutional monarchy with a bill of rights wins.  Nobody wants to be a puppet ruler for bankers emmitting tyranny when the odds of the people killing you are high.  But if you're only 1 of 100 puppets in the senate, the risk to you is low with high reward because nobody can even be bothered knowing all 100 of their names in the first place.  Accountability doesn't come without a central figurehead of who is actually in charge.

Such a model would have to have some decentralization built in to prevent a unilateral launch of nuclear weapons, but the base of what goes and accountability has to reside in the executive branch and not be spread amongst several fake branches which are just front groups or meaningless political prostitutes.

You have a significant reading comprehension deficiency. This is 3rd time I've told you that the scenario entertained is "in a collapse". We aren't talking about being able to drive over to your coin dealer (who btw in a collapse scenario has already been killed and all his inventory stolen). Your Porsche 911 has been destroyed in this scenario. I suppose you didn't even read the linked scenario:


Btw, there are no coin dealers in Mindanao nor in rural areas of most of the world.

Try to sell some precious metal where I am, and you'll be missing an arm or finger or eyeball not too long after that.


GAFC.

The IQ here is amazing.  

Time to spank some braggart tinfoil pointed hat wearing dolts...


And they aren't buying silver dimes. They are buying Comex bars, bullion, ETFs, and otherwise investing based on liquidity.

Any BS from gold propagandists to the contrary is not factual.


The issue is whether it will be liquid during a collapse, which has nothing to do with the relative supply that is stored in some few numbers of vaults mostly controlled by super wealthy and governments.

Comparing the liquidity of gold to Bitcoin now for an individual with a wireless computer connection in most locations of the world to liquidity of physical precious metal coin in those locations, makes gold look pathetic.

You son, don't understand precious metals. Get off my lawn with your pathetic attempts to insult yourself.


Saplings grow very rapidly to oak trees, but oak trees don't grow to the moon. Are you investing for maximum or minimum gain. Duh.  

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Sunspot magnetic field driven activity is headed for minimization from 2020s through 2040s:

Very well written Anonymint.