Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 327. (Read 647196 times)

What are you making such a big deal about here? He makes long term (years, decades, centuries, etc.) models and predictions and he also writes about short term market movements. They have nothing necessarily to do with each other except that obviously the short term and the long term are two views of the same thing.

Armstrong has never said that interest rates would turn higher on the day of 2015.75.

It has always been about knowing that 2015.75 marked a sea change in the fact that Europe (and Japan with Abenomics and China with its repeated reinflations) had been able to forestall their collapse ever since Mario Draghi (another Goldman Sachs alumni) had made his famous "line in the sand" speech. It demarcates a shifting from the bounce to 2011, then the forestalling treading water from 2011 to 2016, and now the drive into the abyss but with the international capital running home to the dollar for one last hooray for the dollar reserve system. Then after 2017.9, total chaos.

If you are focused on some market pricing event that happens on 2015.75, then you haven't even understood anything about the ECM and Armstrong's modeling.

Could have just been bots that are programmed to detect when there is a large skew of where there are fresh shorts but no buyers, and decide to buy to maximize gains for the most efficient move.

Also remember that when retailers buy usually the market maker aka bank or broker will be short in the market, so by retailers all sellimg at once perhaps markets starts to rise from the hedged trades via brokers.

I understand that about stop losses, and if that was the case today, then it were some very level headed and cool traders who pulled off that 400 points jump under such job data conditions and hostile bearish climate. Even 90% of experienced floor traders couldn't understand what's happening, but yes, you could be right that's what happened.

Thats EXACTLY the time to buy. You pretty much said the same thing I was saying. It moves to simply find liquidity, the shortest path to the most liquidity wins. Stoplosses provide liquidity.

Could be that as well, I certainly can't prove otherwise.

Personally, I would be very surprised if any retailers would buy anything following that job data and sudden drop. I spoke many those retailer bulls during the day in person, on phone, over the internet and all of them were scared to buy anything. People like me who shorted were calm and happy, but I didn't meet any retailers who was buying. Even floor traders were confused like hell.

  

Or that retailers went short/panicked and it was a good chance to slaughter them or entice them to get in again to rinse and repeat short term.

And yes, theoretically the rates should have relation to the market place - even if we didn't see that today morning. Morning we saw the panic about the economy, but afternoon was all about the rates. In my opinion the 400 points jump was actually due to the fact that traders realized there won't be any rate hike and the free money will available a bit longer, so they came back to the market.

I am 100% sure he is trying to interpret/explain the thinking of the FED. I believe that's what he says, the FED will allow the higher rates only when the economy growth will be good enough. Anyway, I am not even an English speaker :-)))  so I hope TPTB_need_war will translate what Armstrong meant.

"The weak jobs number is now raising new doubts the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year. We are starting to see that higher rates are linked in thinking to stronger economic growth. When the economy declines, rate expectations decline. This is the real view of interest rates and their relation to the marketplace."

This is his realization based on the early drop. He made statements you just need to know how to read carefully.

The fact that it finished higher means his realization is opposite of what happened. We are starting to see? where? He linked higher rates with stronger economy and linked that to the marketplace (stock market).. all based on "We are starting to see" the big red drop.

He made not such statements at all which could imply he thought that, and he didn't say the market could be lower. All he said "we should begin to see declining economic numbers" which is absolutely correct. Again, all he said term of numbers: if 15,970 -> then retest.

Of course he was excited seeing that fucking big red candle, and probably he thought, here we go 2015.75 started, and he wrote the blog. But as always, he was very much stayed away from any day trade predictions.

He made statements assuming the market would be lower, which for me make me question the statements and assumptions derived based on those.

No doubt you are right that Armstrong was getting excited from the gigantic drop today when the market dropped 200 points in 5 seconds. It was an indeed interesting moment, I was trading there (fortunately having short position as I was listening the sensible analysts that the job data will be weak). 60 minutes later it was apparent that the market is going to move up.

Having said that, he was not making any predictions. He said "a closing on the Dow below 15970 today will warn of a retest of the August low". If 15970, then retest. He very rarely projects any numbers, in fact he said multiple time in the last few weeks that you can't trade this market. The reference to 15970 was just like the 16,160 and 16,280 numbers which we talked about last week: if certain conditions will be satisfied then some event could happen - that's all he said.

With regards to the "We are starting to see that higher rates are linked in thinking to stronger economic growth", I think he is absolutely correct. The FED will postpone the rate hike by saying that due to the weak job data the economy is not ready for a rate hike.

@John999
I don't think his theory depends on the high rates. The money will flow to the United States regardless of the rates, though higher rates of course makes more attractive the US dollar. But even at negative USD rates will flow the money to the US. Personally I believe, that what we saw today on the market. This was one of the strangest day ever on the stock market and I think it could happen because the money is already flowing from the emerging markets - just like Armstrong predicted it will be (he projected it will happen later but it doesn't change the correctness of his model).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3/69e98914-6829-11e5-a57f-21b88f7d973f.html#axzz3nM7HY5vc

 

Again you need to reread what I wrote. He should just wait instead of jumping the gun, I already know what hes saying at a macro level, however hard to come back in 15 years and say hey you were wrong! I'm seeing his daily projections to be pretty much dead wrong (like I expected) so perhaps its in his interest to stop posting market predictions daily.

Can't you fucking what I wrote. You are entirely wrong. Nothing has changed in his model of what is happening. Read again my post

You are guys are so fucking stupid.

He made this realization today as numbers came out and got it wrong today simple as that.

If he isn't considering noise he should just wait for a weekly blog entry instead of jumping the gun on the first 30 min red candle.

If you haven't even tried to understand holistically, then why do you feel qualified to say anything? Of course you've just made an ass out of yourself in public showing that you are too lazy to do your homework.

What he is saying that the markets have apparently (still an "if") elected to turn down even more so into the 2015.75 turning point, so as to maximize this final peak in (the short end of the curve of) sovereign bonds and minimum interest rates so as to provide the fuel for a massive sling shot on the stampede of capital into the US dollar and US stocks hence. As I told you in my prior post, it is looking more and more like we have to wait until Spring for the contagion in the bond bubble to envelop and get a bottom on the private assets (with US dollar and US stocks transitioning to behave as private assets through 2017.9). I know someone who had a copy of this gold report from (was it early 2015 or late 2014?) and that clearly stated the bottom wasn't expected until Spring 2016. So it is not as if he hadn't already expected that timing.

Remember his point for the past years has been the coming bubble (stampede) into the US dollar and US stocks will not be based on economic fundamentals, but rather on the shift in international capital. So that fits perfectly with the Fed being given the excuse to delay raising interest rates, because the markets are also not ready to dump bonds and go to the US stocks. The markets will eventually get there as I explained in my prior post.

What kind of asinine statement is that about his entire theory being wash? It is falling into place entirely consistent with the major turning point of 2015.75 (for the final peak in sovereign bonds) and then the cascading contagion there after with a raging stampede into the US dollar and stocks to 2017.9.


It is not his fault if you are determined to confuse yourself and can't grasp the major theme which he has explained numerous times ad nauseum. You are too lazy to read his blog every day for the past 3 years nor to pay for his subscription services, therefor you don't have a clue about what you are thinking.

On the day he got it wrong. Ofcourse he must have been writing that as the market was falling in the morning down by over 100 pts to confirm his theory. However it ended up over 200 pts to end the day. I believe his realization based on what the market was doing in relation to speculation that interest rates may or may not rise and economic health numbers: "This is the real view of interest rates and their relation to the marketplace." was essentially the opposite of what the market did today since based on this realization he said "With this turning point 2015.75, we should begin to see declining economic numbers and a closing on the Dow below 15970 today will warn of a retest of the August low."

Thus we are again left questioning counter and counter-counter-intuitive thinking leaving us with a multiple choice answer of c) all of the above.

If he believes short term is noise, then he shouldn't have come to a realization of how economic health numbers affected the market direction based on his ECM model on a whim seeing red in the first 30 mins and writing a blog ("We are starting to see that higher rates are linked in thinking to stronger economic growth."). That essentially proves he is thinking short-term trying to predict "noise" and for the most part getting it wrong from what I see.

It's funny he states generalized statements like "we are starting to see" based on small sample sizes yet he then goes and says don't pay attention to any short term forecasts they are noise in case he is wrong (covering his tracks).

Anyways based on his blog I don't see how your statement of interest rate prediction has anything to do with what he said in the blog, you should read it again.

He said it would go down and then up (telling me that rates would go up as short covering happened) and to him meaning that the picture would be painted with rose coloured glasses in favour of the US economy.

Armstrong realization:

Bad economic numbers = Lower market(today) = Lower expectation of rate rise

and extrapolating into:

Good economic numbers = higher market(future) = higher expectation of further rate rises

That is essentially the thinking he went through on this realization.

However,
Today:
Bad economic numbers = higher market(today) = ?

Good economic numbers = lower market? = ?

We still don't know based on that blog where we stand in respect to either the market direction on economic health or rate expectations according to armstrong.

I'm sure he sees, theres not enough data. I think its new to him.

We REALLY need to have him see what cryptos are he will probably be more aligned with whats going on.