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Topic: Martin Armstrong Discussion - page 365. (Read 647257 times)

sr. member
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August 04, 2015, 09:08:07 PM
Why The Deep State Always Wins: The Zero-Sum Game of Perpetual War

http://cryptome.org/2014/08/deep-state-wins.pdf

1/ IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
2/ WAR IS PEACE
3/ SLAVERY IS FREEDOM

Quote
“Like it or lump it, we’ll do what we like. So just get used to it, world.”

And note Michael Ruppert recently shot himself in the head too just like my only sibling sister did in 2006 (yet why didn't the police observe that she couldn't have possibly held the gun at that angle and pulled the trigger)  Roll Eyes
sr. member
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August 04, 2015, 07:45:32 PM
I take issue with MA's repetitive insistence "we are all in this together".

If I tie my shoelaces to a mountain, who can achieve anything  Huh

Armstrong sees from his cyclical models that the masses must perish in megadeath every 80 years or so. So why can't he acknowledge that is natural and that is the upswelling of innovation from the few that propels humanity forward  Huh

All those cows in Greece and the EU who believe in the EU dream, unfortunately deserve exactly what is happening to them. It is entirely natural. Those who are offended by my words, as if I could even change what is natural  Huh

Bottom line is if you trust your life to the herd, then you benefit while the lamb is fattened, and then you die when the lamb is harvested. Rather if you trust your life to your individual endeavors, then you suffer from your own failures and profit from your own achievements. Of course trading with others to benefit from the collective, serendipitous, chaotic, accretive advance of knowledge (technology).

popcorn1, maybe it seems like I am a callous person. Rather it is incredulous to me that you would demand that someone who is suffering from Multiple Sclerosis and who has never taken a dime in aid from health insurance, should somehow be responsible for you being too fucking lazy to work hard and build your own life.

That is why I say, "fuck you"!

Do you have any idea what I am suffering? But do I put that burden on you?

You are the callous, communist, coward thief hiding behind the charade of equality and social justice.

...
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 07:07:30 PM
Returning on subject, here's a nice article for you to read:

Quote
When Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, saw his idea of temporary Grexit dismissed, it was like passing the point of no return. From now on every country in the eurozone is either too important a member to be (temporarily) suspended or too proud a nation to be put under adequate control. This tacitly rolls back the Lisbon treaty, which set out rules on how to bring to order misbehaving member countries. It’s a shame.

And it makes you think of a federal state. Among its key characteristics are, first, no limits to internal transfers; second, the vow to keep together the territory that has been accumulated; and, third, the relinquishment of some specific sanctions such as suspension of membership rights.

Yeah, I've heard that somewhere before... Wink


http://www.politico.eu/article/fools-united-over-greece-tsipras-merkel-grexit-schauble-eurozone-crisis/?utm_content=buffer1e38e
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 06:58:29 PM
You're touching a sensitive wound here. I often am hostile towards some colleagues that classify a person as "dumb" or "smart". To be honest, I used to be such an ass myself when I was younger, but not anymore though. Let's get things straight:

How can one be determined as "smart" or "dumb" really? And most importantly, who is the one who judges him or her as such? Under what authority?

I once met a friend who insisted that I should take the MENSA test. I refused but he insisted that I should just go with him (he's a member) and see how a test looks like. I complied. TBH, I found the test marvelous! Very intuitive, brilliantly drawn and truly can certify someone's ability in math, combinational thought, pattern recognition, vocabulary etc.

What about the rest?

I mean what about a person who never learned what "Fluid intelligence" is or had never the chance (or the free time) to learn basic math problem solving, or what a geometrical pattern really represents. The short answer is "it's not for them". The long one is "It's the worst form of human classification" and the worst part, it's been done voluntarily (and erroneously)! To be fair, we must have a test for everybody - even those who cannot read or write.

What I'm saying here, is that IQ, EQ, or whatever mind capabilities a person has is subjected to training! Anyone can get better when you teach them how. Others are good in math, others in poetry, or music. We all have something in common: WE ARE EXCEPTIONAL AND UNIQUE!



PS: Congrats on connecting the dots on the Expression Problem Challenge. Smiley
sr. member
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August 04, 2015, 04:53:56 PM
I suppose one can argue omniscience isn't required for a metric on IQ, but then how do we classify people have this ability to always think they might be wrong and always searching for new data and ideas? I mean always willing to look at someone else's ideas with an open mind (up the limit of available time). I believe I may be describing myself (but not sure if I am able to objectively analyze myself so I attempt to triangulate with the way others analyze me while trying to filter out their arbitrary myopia and bias).

As you're a fan of the late Steve Jobs, one of his worse flaws, IMHO, was that he had been harsh to his colleagues.

I am not a fan of the culture he believed in, such as walled gardens for software developers and closed, proprietary systems.

I appreciate his ability to speak frankly and have clear thinking on the generative essence of an issue. For example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob_GX50Za6c
http://www.ted.com/talks/steve_jobs_how_to_live_before_you_die

That doesn't mean I agree with the conclusions he arrived at for example the prior sentence because I know open systems scale. It dismays me that his love of "purity" clouded his usual preference for scaling.

Yet I also concur with his vision that leadership and pride in the quality of work is required for greatness. Berating workers isn't necessary if we move to a Knowledge Age and where engineered components are more modular so that each person can perform his/her creative work orthogonally and not be bound in futures contracts on the greatness of others but rather standing on the backs of the greatness of others serendipitously and chaotically. Interestingly what I want is more in line with Jobs' point that "you can only connect dots after the fact" in his commencement speech I linked to above, thus it appears to me he didn't know how to really achieve the essence of what he realized. I need to elaborate on this sometime in the future when I have more free time.

...and separately found a complete solution to the expression problem of modularity in software...

Btw, about 2 weeks ago I analyzed the Dependent Object Calculus proposal for Scala 3, and determined that I found the holy grail of computer programming language design having completely solved the Expression Problem challenge as stated by Philippe Wadler, the prominent computer science professor and principle creator of the Haskell programming language.

Edit: Perhaps I am a collage of Jobs with an education from Superman.
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 10:20:26 AM
macsga, indeed my theory as to why MA doesn't believe in the existence of TPTB is because he is only motivated by data and what he can model. He has often reiterated that opinion is bullshit. So he sees that such conspiracy isn't necessary to describe the system. My counter argument is that he can't fully understand without incorporating that conspiracy into the model, which is why I believe he doesn't grasp the importance of bottom-up (grassroots) exploration of new frontiers, e.g. geographical escapes of lore and perhaps crypto in this current technological unemployment shift to post-industrial, non-fixed capital age (which of course threatens the interests of the old world capitalists who run the current industrial world).

1. Having the "blessed" opportunity to live in a country that has been devastated by TPTB the last 5 years, I can assure you, when something is so carefully designed and/or a long line of random events looks like a "conspiracy theory", it usually is. I've often been in front of Greek government officials the last 5 years that were mumbling about "conspiracy theories" when they had to cover up a dirty work of theirs. It's the "reverse psychology" trick that you deny the obvious because it's too obvious to accept it.

Also there is often this argument that a conspiracy can't hide in plain sight and it can't remain unified. Well it is visible for anyone who researches and unification for cartelization is a fact. So I am dismayed to see someone such as Eric Raymond (progenitor of the term "open source") who claims a 150-160 IQ using such excuses. Yet I also agree to some extent with Eric, that the vested interests are symptom of a systemic effect of the Logic of Collective Action and thus the term "prospiracy" is apropos.

2. Don't get smart people wrong because of their disability to acknowledge something that it's conspicuous to you. As you're a fan of the late Steve Jobs, one of his worse flaws, IMHO, was that he had been harsh to his colleagues. Not everybody functions the way you do. This is prominent between the younger persons. Their ability to understand something difficult varies from person to person, sometimes even the smartest ones are failing to understand the simplest things. After all these years, I tend to believe that the Pareto principle is in a dynamic equilibrium where the "best" 20% often becomes a part of the "worst" 80% and vice versa. People need their time. Period.

Clever, I agree multi-variate coupled oscillation would indeed be one way of abstracting the chaotic model...although I bet MA approached it from a less closed-solution approach, i.e. bottom up assemblage of components (e.g. transverse wave) and allowing them to interact in some A.I. learning system.

3. I'm sure you're aware that we are -literally- talking about the same things here, right? A long story short, if one has the way to predict accurately the outcome of such a model, at any given time, I'll be glad to help him document it and have my name under his Nobel prize...

(Yes, it's THAT big). Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 420
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August 04, 2015, 09:16:19 AM
macsga, indeed my theory as to why MA doesn't believe in the existence of TPTB is because he is only motivated by data and what he can model. He has often reiterated that opinion is bullshit. So he sees that such conspiracy isn't necessary to describe the system. My counter argument is that he can't fully understand without incorporating that conspiracy into the model, which is why I believe he doesn't grasp the importance of bottom-up (grassroots) exploration of new frontiers, e.g. geographical escapes of lore and perhaps crypto in this current technological unemployment shift to post-industrial, non-fixed capital age (which of course threatens the interests of the old world capitalists who run the current industrial world).

Also there is often this argument that a conspiracy can't hide in plain sight and it can't remain unified. Well it is visible for anyone who researches and unification for cartelization is a fact. So I am dismayed to see someone such as Eric Raymond (progenitor of the term "open source") who claims a 150-160 IQ using such excuses. Yet I also agree to some extent with Eric, that the vested interests are symptom of a systemic effect of the Logic of Collective Action and thus the term "prospiracy" is apropos.

Clever, I agree multi-variate coupled oscillation would indeed be one way of abstracting the chaotic model...although I bet MA approached it from a less closed-solution approach, i.e. bottom up assemblage of components (e.g. transverse wave) and allowing them to interact in some A.I. learning system.
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 05:54:03 AM
I will do it for you since I agree with most of your points. But; (again for the sake of argument) is there a possibility that his economic model doesn't NEED to incorporate such a parameter? To place this on a real basis, "does it matter WHO is driving the ship?". We know for a fact that *someone* has to lead, does it really matter if he's opposed to somebody else for real (or not)?

My point is, that when you mentally conceive the chaotic design of an economic model that incorporates (basically) stock exchange/oil/gold/etc numbers, the causality effect of a (probable) opposition between USA and  Russia is a minority. Think about it as a coupled oscillation in Physics. Either way, the one might interfere to the other, but THE SYSTEM is one and only!

Besides, I'm *still* not sure he's out of the "inner circle" in order to be so accurate. THAT would explain his denial for their existence. Besides, it requires more than a sophisticated predictive model to pinpoint certain events with the accuracy of a certain date, if you ask me... Of course, I'm not claiming for the non-false of my thoughts. Just posting them to give you another perspective.

Cheers.
sr. member
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August 04, 2015, 05:09:15 AM
I urge someone to email this to Martin Armstrong and ask him to get a grip on reality. He still thinks the USA and Russia are enemies, lol.

This is actually reasonably well done and somewhat realistic assessment of possibilities in the post-2017 timeframe:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8rYaPfFLgo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z85nci7AI2s

I found this because my gf wanted me to give her a movie to watch which would give her some understanding of what we are worried about.

That movie/documentary (is there a vocabulary word?) is accurate to some extent as to the difficulties one can face during an economic collapse and especially in war, but it is not exactly the reality we face, primarily because we must grasp that TPTB (the core most people behind the curtain of those 147 transnational corporations that own and run the world) do not want to lose control of their ownership.

Catherine Austin Fitts' "slow burn" is a more apt abstraction of the reality of the crisis we face.

Rather the goal of TPTB is to eliminate their competition and threats to their economies-of-scale and profits, i.e. those pesky smaller sovereigns (nations, local governments, upstart millionaires, etc) that get in the way of their monopolies. They use the crisis they create in order to grab more power, as you can see they are doing in both Ukraine and Greece now.

Btw, as an aside, one of the programmer/mathematicians I thought I had hired was a 26 year Ukrainian. After I explained to him the computer security procedures I needed him to follow, he went silent and then a few days later he replied he had taken a job with Barclays (for eur3500 monthly) designing high frequency trading algorithms. You see most people are sheep and will willingly work for the enemy doing work that is harmful to humanity.

So one of TPTB's first priorities is to disarm the public. They will use a ratcheted crisis (not a sudden uncontrolled pandemic as in the quoted movie) to send the police and military (and national guard as they did after Hurricane Katrina in my birthplace New Orleans) to confiscate all the guns (both registered and of course unregistered). If you have a registered gun, then they know you have it and the gun control databases will be computerized. I was told in 2006 in Corpus Christi, Texas by a former captain in the police force, that all local police had been deputized by the Feds since 9/11 (meaning the Feds can take over command & control of the local police in a declaration of martial law and instruct them to do what they want).

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amy-schumer-joins-senator-call-tighter-gun-background-check-system-n403206

TPTB know they have a big problem with the militias, so their goal will be to isolate them away from the majority of the population and then divide-and-conquer them. They have to be very careful that they don't allow self-sufficient communities to form due to this isolation. They will label these militias terrorists and this is why they will need the ability to censor the internet. That is why they've been accelerating moves such as the FCC taking control of the internet via executive policy directives such as Net Neutrality. If the militias are too strong, TPTB may have to move to allowing a foreign army on USA soil in order to neutralize the militias. I believe the faux conflict between the USA vs. Russia/China is setup as a plan C for this possible scenario (definitely not the preferred scenario of TPTB because it is very risky).

I believe TPTB are profiling and counting how many truly "take it from my cold dead hand" militia there are, and they will isolate the most extremists ones first and exterminate them as terrorists. They need some excuse to do this action. The problem they realize at Bundy Ranch is the militia will embed themselves amongst women and children, thus the need for control over the internet so the mass murder can be carried out without the eye of the public watching. It may come down to "blue hats" on USA soil as Kissinger promised some decades ago, i.e. that international war can be used to slaughter the militias if necessary (which is also essentially is being done in Ukraine as a preliminary test case, just as they used Katrina a test bed).

Simultaneously they can take out the weaker gun rights advocates by sending the IRS after them, Civil Asset Forfeiture and numerous others means of picking off the weak from the herd to weaken the herd.

So if you talk about one of the most powerful weapons one can give to the local militias, that is an anonymous internet which can't be filtered nor controlled. Not an easy thing to accomplish. First you need the anonymity protocols (and Tor and I2P are broken designs). Then you need HAM radio backup for the internet infrastructure so the internet will always stay on regardless what the Feds do to the internet backbones.

Note according to MA's computer models of repeating cycles, we may see a pandemic starting in 2017 and peaking 2018, and this is a wild card because TPTB may not be able to entirely control the effects of a rapid spread. The severity, death rate, speed of death, and mode of transmission are unknown, so we can't yet estimate the effects. However, maybe we can look to the Spanish Flu epidemic in the early 1900s for clues. The government did not lose control. People became more dependent on the government to enforce quarantines and isolation wards (warehouses filled with sick). You see the government has been building detention camps all over the USA, so maybe they are prepared.
legendary
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bigtimespaghetti.com
August 04, 2015, 02:41:08 AM
One question I'd like to ask: if a sovereign default precedes a bitcoin price fall (timing wise), could bitcoin acting as a safe haven asset hold off a fall to double digits? I think the p & d'ers & speculative price jumps have turned bitcoin into a 'self fulfilling prophecy' safe haven asset even if it really hasn't fully become a functional one yet.

The marketcap is too small to be a true safe-haven, plus you have most 'old' money almost completely ignorant of bitcoin and the tech.
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 02:38:05 AM
legendary
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August 04, 2015, 12:20:51 AM
sr. member
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August 03, 2015, 11:35:37 AM
Just stumbled upon this thread, interesting read!

IMHO Dollar will take a quick turn soon and will not be seen as a safe haven.
It's status as petro-dollar is already being contested, one of the few reasons the currency was able to keep it's head up during tougher times (stronger EURO etc.).

Will keep following this, very enlightening Smiley
sr. member
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August 03, 2015, 09:55:29 AM
Collapse of real estate ahead, and with it a collapse of savings and potentially into a mad max world:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35580
legendary
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August 03, 2015, 08:59:14 AM
Quote
Btw, there was Goldman again writing derivatives to help Greece hide its fiscal negligence so it could be fully bankrupted in the coming conflagration.

It is one big 0.001% club, and you the 99% people ain't in it.

Meanwhile in Greece:

"Black Monday for the Athens Stock exchange. More than 17% drop, limit down for the Greek Bank stocks."

http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26502&subid=2&pubid=113640168

As you predicted upthread, the IMF balked:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35566

This is actually a clockwork mechanism, not that hard to predict what will happen. I'm pretty curious if we (Greece as a country) can hold up until Oct. 1; the far left wing of Syriza is behaving hostile, towards the PM's decisions about the Greek Memorandum III (on the talks right now). I concur with most people here who believe we're going for elections much sooner (before mid September).

The next move will (have to) be a bold change of policy for the whole EU, introducing a Federalization model that overcomes political decisions and finally kills democracy in its own homeland. Very carefully plotted plan that is based on the "shock doctrine" practices of the mid-60s. First you lead the situation to  the adiexodo, while you have, a-priori, the "solution" ready to solve the problem.

Piece of cake...  Roll Eyes
sr. member
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August 03, 2015, 08:47:15 AM
It might be wise to sell all private asset shorts for the time being. Looks like we need one more test of the resistance to the upside before the next move downwards in Sept-Oct. Also it appears the low in private assets won't be until Spring 2016, as we need to allow time for the October kickoff of the contagion in Europe to spread into liquidity crisis and selloff globally with capital rushing into the dollar as the safe haven...

It might even be wise to reestablish some long positions for the time being. There may be a possibility of the Bitcoin price moving above $320 and staying below the next zone of resistance.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35597



Quote
While gold elected the Monthly Bearish at 1155, we did so well below that level, yet holding the 1084 number both weekly and monthly. Our energy models are turning positive so it does not appear we will get major follow-through at this time. When you elect a Bearish Reversal that far from the number, you typically bounce back to retest it before proceeding further.

We have a Directional Change back to back for August and September and July was a turning point. So, we may see a reaction to the upside to flush out the shorts at this time since we have excessive bearishness building in the press as the WSJ comment that gold is the “pet rock”.

A reaction rally at this point BEFORE new lows will relieve the short positions but this is not likely to last beyond September. Therefore we are more likely than not going to see the final decline stage into the Benchmarks [now].

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35556

Quote
We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. We have moved beyond the 3 year window from 2011 and the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $681 has held. To make that final low in gold, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character separating the traders from the fools who just believe propaganda and trade fundamentally. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs. So expect no sudden news of a huge buyer to save the day. That will NEVER happen. The low is made by massive shorts just as highs are made by fools rushing in an believe the propaganda of the promoters at the top.

... [click the url to read all]

Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.

How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape but more importantly, the technical projections and the Reversals generated from that low. Will we still have a free market for gold? Or will gold move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid?  This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35582

Quote
Government would not necessarily travel door to door to confiscate gold. They would more likely than not employ the same tactic as in the past – just outlaw transactions in gold to avoid taxes which might even include BitCoin. That would be the way they set the stage for confiscating anything that is avoiding taxation which they now call money laundering with up to 20 years in prison. This is now all about them – not you.

...

Such schemes against tax-avoidance would not be merely a target against gold alone. It would be against anything taking place in a tax-exempt atmosphere.

...
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
August 03, 2015, 08:46:58 AM
Quote
Btw, there was Goldman again writing derivatives to help Greece hide its fiscal negligence so it could be fully bankrupted in the coming conflagration.

It is one big 0.001% club, and you the 99% people ain't in it.

Meanwhile in Greece:

"Black Monday for the Athens Stock exchange. More than 17% drop, limit down for the Greek Bank stocks."

http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26502&subid=2&pubid=113640168

As you predicted upthread, the IMF balked:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35566
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
August 03, 2015, 08:43:41 AM
Quote
Btw, there was Goldman again writing derivatives to help Greece hide its fiscal negligence so it could be fully bankrupted in the coming conflagration.

It is one big 0.001% club, and you the 99% people ain't in it.

Meanwhile in Greece:

"Black Monday for the Athens Stock exchange. More than 17% drop, limit down for the Greek Bank stocks."

http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=26502&subid=2&pubid=113640168
sr. member
Activity: 420
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August 03, 2015, 07:57:10 AM
43 year old Litvinenko drank tea containing a fatal dose of radioactive polonium during a meeting in London in 2006.

Mr Emmerson alleges that The Kremlin wanted Mr Litvinenko dead and provided the poison used to kill him.

But Russia are the good guys because they provided safe habor for Snowden right?

Wrong! The axis powers are in bed together.

Just do a little research on how Larry Summers was over there in Russia after fall of the Iron Curtain helping to redistribute nationalized assets to oligarchs. Follow the money trail to Goldman Sachs, LTCM, the collapse of Russian bonds, Edmond Safra, Martin Armstrong, etc...

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/armstrong-economics-behind-the-curtain-the-full-monty-0110.pdf

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/looking-behind-the-curtain4909.pdf


Btw, there was Goldman again writing derivatives to help Greece hide its fiscal negligence so it could be fully bankrupted in the coming conflagration.

It is one big 0.001% club, and you the 99% people ain't in it.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 262
August 02, 2015, 11:39:54 PM
Do you believe that any significantly disruptive emerging anonymous altcoin/internet would show up in Armstrong's ECM?

I had independently discovered there was a technological unemployment cycle before I became tuned into Armstrong's ECM. It was this technological disruption cycle which seemed to correspond with the real estate cycle.

So interesting to note that TPTB deleted Michael Pettis's blog, then I used to be able to find the backups at archive.org, but now I see they even erased the internet archive!!!!

http://blog.mpettis.com/2012/06/11/what-is-globalization/#comment-19321



So I think we can say that the Knowledge Age kicking into high gear as of 2007.15, and that 2011.45 to 2015.75 was brief eye in the storm where the Knowledge Age takeover was temporarily slowed down. Remember I believe Bitcoin is planted by the DEEP STATE to enslave humanity in electronic currency and thus is the antithesis of Knowledge Age take over. Yet the early part of Bitcoin's existence before 2011, was Knowledge Age directed because it was decentralized (no ASICs nor pools yet) and it was spreading the concepts that will be incorporated into a disruptive altcoin.

Thus yes, I expect the disruptive altcoin to arrive after 2015.75, i.e. October 2015.

Astute question! Thanks for motivating me to realize that correlation which I had identified long ago.
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