Topic: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ - page 2. (Read 20428 times)

 

Chad Saylor is doing the Chad move by front-running the United States government. If the governments from the different regions of the world actually start accumulating Bitcoin as a "reserve", Chad Saylor's "gamble" will be written in trading and investment books as one of the greatest risk-taking moments in history. Perhaps something like John D. Rockefeller with his massive oil pipelines bet or Cornelius Vanderbilt's risk on the rail road system.

Saylor perhaps isn't doing it for the money, he's doing it to prove a point?

👀

$MSTR treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 72.4%, a net benefit of ~136,965 BTC to our shareholders. At $107K per BTC, that equates to ~$14.66 billion for the year.


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1869001572862378428?t=ZUvfUrnQ8zch0E4ITdGrCg&s=19

I recall that when Saylor first got into bitcoin, he was frequently proclaiming bitcoin is going to double every year, since that was what the history showed, yet in recent times, he got more realistic, in terms of expecting a CAGR that slowly goes down in the amount, so that even if we might be in the 70% territory for our current CAGR, he is expecting a CAGR of something like 29% by 2045, which seems reasonable as a kind of working parameter.

On a personal level, I would not want to get caught too much off guard in regards to the level of my optimism in regards to the anticipated CAGR, which is part of the reason that I like to consider the 200-WMA rather than the spot price, and we can see that so far, the 200-WMA has never failed to go up less than 20% in any year, yet since it is a lagging indicator, we still might be able to consider if the BTC spot price is staying above the 200-WMA more than 20%, then the 200-WMA is still likely to continue to go up at least 20% per year... and yeah, we don't sell at the 200-WMA, and we sell at spot price, so if possible, if we need the money, it is way better to be selling any BTC when the spot prices are way above the 200-WMA rather than close to the 200-WMA.  Right now spot prices are nearly 150% higher than the 200-WMA.

I think this debate is drifting to off topic, which is usual in long threads like this one. We come from debating about MSTR to end up talking about bitcoin accumulation and withdrawal strategies. But I think it's not entirely off topic so I'm going to respond. And by the way, I agree that buying MSTR shares is not diversification, to me it is simply adding leverage. You can get a higher return but you also have a higher risk, starting because you don't have the keys to the bitcoins held by MSTR.


Of course, I believe that even if you keep accumulating even with imperfections along the way you can find a better future financially speaking.



Well, when I gave my example I had in mind not only people from the USA but from the rest of the world, and I also believe that in the future the revaluation of bitcoin is going to be potentially lower than the calculation made since 9 or 12 years ago. Although next year looks very bullish I believe that the returns of the next 3 cycles will be lower than the returns of the last 3 cycles.


That's right, accumulating wealth gives you options, and just because you have fuck you status doesn't mean you're necessarily going to quit your job. It depends on whether you like it more or less, but maybe you can decide to work less hours, or freelance instead of working for a company, things like that.


I agree 100%.


Yes, trying to time the market when bitcoin gives you an impressive return for doing nothing, other than continuing to accumulate or just hold, doesn't seem very smart.


Agreed.

And, so many folks tend to get caught up upon the metric of average cost per BTC (even on an overall portfolio level), yet Saylor/MSTR seem to not be phased by such metric, including that they started out buying BTC at around $10k per BTC, and their average cost per BTC has gone up considerably, including now right close to $62k per BTC for their whole stash.

You also might be correct fillippone in your insinuation that the reality might be more important that the number of sats per share might be a more important metric, since they issue the debt to be able to buy the bitcoin and then when the debt converts to equities, then the debt is relieved and the share holders (including Saylor himself with a majority holdings) are more wealthy in terms of how many bitcoin they hold.

It's a bit difficult to imagine if Saylor/MSTR will be able to continue to buy more than $1 billion worth of bitcoin per week through 2025 for example, and with the way that they are going it might inch to higher numbers rather than lower numbers, perhaps getting to purchases of $10 billion or more per week?


A funny thing about Schiff is that he is trying to imply that bitcoin's price is ONLY going up because Saylor is pumping the price, which is what trolls tend to do with their attempts at simplifying matters into seemingly single explanations that do not really add up since they will have a multitude of simple and even internally contradictory explanations... while at the same time having fun staying poor for themselves and for anyone following their ongoing and wrong precautionary warnings.

I think you mean 61 thousand, my friend. That will take about a month or so at current pace.

Yes, Nothing stopped MicroStrategy's buying bitcoins, they regularly bought bitcoins over time. Maybe their Bitcoin buying trend will continue in the future. Yesterday when Michael Saylor said they needed the green dot, Peter Schiff, the stupidest Bitcoin critic ever, made a post about him, maybe he did it as a mockery.



They have bought Bitcoin for six weeks in a row, even after Bitcoin hit a new all-time high last night they bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin today. They are going to hit a milestone by consistently buying bitcoins over time. At the moment MicroStrategy needs only 61 thousand bitcoins to touch the 0.5 million bitcoin. Maybe they will reach this milestone in the next few weeks or a Month.

Thanks @pk, I made a mistake which I have corrected now.

As widely expected by green dot announcement.

According to my imperfect computations, this corresponds to 180,924 sats per share, up from 177,442. BTC YIELD of 41.5% in 24Q4. @saylor is cranking a monster yield!

Microstrategy bought Bitcoin this week as well as last week. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced on Twitter yesterday that they will be buying Bitcoin. Today is the sixth time they have bought bitcoins since they started buying them on a weekly basis. Nothing has stopped Microstrategy buying bitcoins, they are buying bitcoins regularly. Today they purchased 15,350 bitcoins worth $1.5 billion.

https://x.com/saylor/status/1868643218956734876?t=eDhWGhSymTpWNMFmH18X4Q&s=19

For sure it is fair to have different interpretations of how to play out strategies and generally applicable principles in light of your own circumstances.  

So I think that I am attempting to set forth generally applicable principles that would be the presumption regarding what to do, so any guy might choose to follow such practices based on the general presumptions, so then if he finds some of his own particular circumstances that justify overriding the general principles, then he may need to make sure that his case for overriding the presumptions are strong enough to actual make the move of overriding the general principles.

It is like saying that these are the best practices, yet of course, I have authority to override what generally would be best practices because I see for me, this would be a better practice based on my own particular circumstances, especially since I accounted for my 9 individual factors.


There are so many people who fail/refuse to sufficiently save and/or invest any kind of meaningful amount, so both shooting for 10% investment/savings and not tapping into their long term savings/investment tends to be very powerful, yet like you mentioned it still will take a long ass time to really build wealth with those levels of 10% (even though those levels are quite practical and probably even a BIG improvement for a lot of folks).

So, yeah, 10% per year is ONLY get you to a status of having had invested a whole year's income after 10 years, and if at minimum we need around 10 years of bitcoin to be able to be at fuck you status, then we are somewhat reliant for either growth of our value or putting in at larger rates.  We can ONLY do as much as we can do as far as putting in, and for sure, whatever we choose to invest into is not guaranteed, so we have to do our best to make sure that we invest in the best kind of thing(s) that we know to be available, which surely many of us consider to be bitcoin, yet even with bitcoin it is not guaranteed to appreciate and/or to compound our value, even though historically it has done quite well in regards to appreciating and compounding value.


Ok.. sure in order to accelerate his investment into bitcoin amounts, some guys might be capable of having his base investment amount into bitcoin as 10% of his salary, and then consider any extra money that comes in to him to be authorized to be invested into bitcoin.  That will help to build the base, and other various kinds of front-loading that can happen, yet at the same time, there is a bit of an assumption that after 3 cycles, it is quite likely that a lot of compounding ended up taking place, so the guy's being aggressive in his investment beyond the 10% has contributed towards his being able to profit from any compounding of value that ended up taking place in the bitcoin that he had been accumulating.
 

A guy can invest into bitcoin and still engage in various kinds of spend and replace, and also practicing using various kinds of storage solutions and even ways of transacting, but yeah, if a guy bought a hardware wallet, a Start 9 server, and a mining rig for 0.05731632 BTC, and then maybe he would have a goal to replace that spent 0.05731632 BTC BTC with 0.0582 BTC purchases within the upcoming month (outside of his normal BTC buys).

12 years is really not a long time to invest in regards to potentially getting to a place in which a guy might end up having life changing money.  

Historically, in bitcoin, a guy could have invested merely 10% of his salary into bitcoin and reached fuck you status within a couple of cycles.  So see the example of a guy who invested $100 per week over the last 9 years (That would be a guy with an annual salary of $52k investing $5,200 per year), would have gotten right around to 15.75 BTC, which clearly would be enough to replace the guys salary in terms of being able to live off of the amount.  

Right now, 15.75 BTC has a 200-WMA value of $665k and a spot price value of $1.6 million, so even going based on the 200-WMA value the guy could withdraw up to $66.5k per year, which is greater than his $52k salary...  I would presume that the BTC is going to keep up with the debasement of the dollar, yet we might also consider that if a guy started out investing in bitcoin and his salary was $52k, then maybe now his salary is higher and maybe his salary even doubled in the last 9 years.  Perhaps?    So the guy has to make those kinds of calculations to figure out if he is going to keep buying bitcoin or even to just wait for his already accumulated 15.75 BTC is enough and he can use his discretionary income in other ways.

Guys also have choices whether to start withdrawing and living off of their BTC or to continue to work and to continue to build their BTC until it gets to their desired level (and there would have had been too many variables to completely figure out 9 years ago, yet with the passage of time, the guy can see progress, yet at the same time historical performance numbers are not going to necessarily give any kind of precise abilities to see future performance levels).  

Even with fuck you status, such status does not have to be all or nothing, since it should be seen as giving more options.  It seems that having the ability to completely replace a person's current salary by entering into a sustainable withdrawal of BTC tends to be quite a powerful place to be.. yet at the same time, any guy might still be a bit concerned about his own calculations of whether he has sufficiently reached fuck you status or not, or whether he might be making mistakes in his calculations, so he might feel more comfortable to build a bit more of a financial (presumably BTC) cushion prior to pulling any fuck you lever and cutting off his current income... which surely is understandable, since it might not good to pull the fuck you lever too soon, so in that sense, it remains good to make sure that the calculations are correct and/or that enough of a cushion exists in the finances (the BTC).

At the same time, surely there are some guys who might also wait too long to pull the fuck you lever, and not have enough confidence in following some kind of a sustainable withdrawal practice with their BTC.  Guys are responsible to figure out these matters, and if they make mistakes they have to live with the consequences.. since their may well be several particulars that apply to one guy that might not apply to another guy.


I don't have any problem with practicing with your BTC.  I consider that I did  most of my accumulation in my first year, but then I could not stop myself from accumulating bitcoin for a bit more than 3 years, and maybe even 4 years, yet even in my very first year of bitcoin, I had several spend and replace.  In my first year to two years of bitcoin, I even gave bitcoin as gifts to 20-30 people, and I would treat those as transactions as spend and replace, yet surely I was still spending my bitcoin, and likely even had less bitcoin than I could have had when I sent bitcoin to various other people, and very few ended up getting into bitcoin.

I would consider one of the potential problems with your spending your bitcoin might be that you are not really spending, but instead you are trying to engage in trading, so you try to spend when the BTC price goes up, but you also might stop your regular buying of bitcoin and you might even end up engaging in waiting strategies, so you are timing when to buy back...

Sure, I don't know exactly what you are doing, but there are a lot of guys who start to engage in trying to time the market prior to their even being close to having had accumulated even close to enough to really make meaningful changes in their lives.. so they are getting excited about their 2x or 3x profits, and then they end up having way less bitcoin because they end up not being able to replace the bitcoin that they sold.


If you end up largely just staying focused on ongoing bitcoin accumulation, then I hardly see what you are doing as a problem, as an issue or even contrary to what I had been saying.

I know that I might sound adamant about not selling any bitcoin prior to having more than enough, and largely I am attempting to direct my comments at the guys who sell for the purpose of buying back cheaper.  Hey, I have been selling bitcoin on the way up since $250 in late 2015, yet I have always had formulas that account for how much I am selling and in the early days I had allowed my self to sell up to 10% of my stash for every doubling of the BTC price, and these days it is less than 3% for every doubling of the BTC price, and so when I sell I do not expect to buy back, yet surely we know that bitcoin frequently ends up correcting, but I am not selling in order to buy back, even though sometimes I do end up using quite a bit of the money to buy back, especially when the BTC price dumps a lot such as in 2018 and in 2022.. .so I don't consider myself to be trading, but instead using the sales as a kind of insurance, but also I would rather that the BTC price keeps going up since I am selling such small amounts, and also I am way better off if the BTC price goes up rather than down... ..

Yet, for me, I have considered myself to be in an overaccumulation status since 2015, and I never got out of such status... hahahahahaha...   the way that I assessed my over accumulation status was that my target was to have my BTC investment amount to be 10% of all of my then quasi-liquid investments, yet throughout 2015 BTC prices stayed down, and I ended up continuing to accumulate and I reached a status of something like 13.5%, so that was how I authorized myself to sell within my formulas, yet even with my sales, when BTC prices went from $250 in 2015 and up to $19,666 in 2017, my BTC allocation had gone from 13.5% to something around 85%, and then when BTC prices corrected back down to $4k-ish in 2018, I might have gotten as low as 45% in my BTC allocation, so I have continued to stay overallocated in bitcoin, and sure I shave off from time to time, but it is largely within my formulas of small amounts, and it tends to be more than adequate for me and my situation.. even though surely at any point I could feel that I could shave off a bunch of BTC since maybe I would say that there is a lot of compounding in the value of whatever I hold since my costs per BTC are in the ballpark of $1k per BTC, so the profits are around 100x, if I were to choose to take such profits (or to cash out more than the regular formulas).

Maybe I am getting way too far off topic?  


Many people have their main investments as their personal residence and perhaps some kind of a 401k, and so if some of those 401ks might have bitcoin options (such as MSTR or ETF options), then they could choose within their 401ks, otherwise they are faced with choosing the buying of BTC directly.   It can be difficult for people to invest beyond their personal residence and their 401k, and surely there is a bit of a perversion with the personal residence serving as an investment (especially since it is not very liquid, it has a lot of costs, and frequently people buy houses that are more expensive than they can afford, so they are left without a lot of money left over to invest into anything else).  

It can be quite challenging for anyone to invest, even up to 10% into bitcoin if they might have 30% or more of their income going into their mortgage payment, maybe up to 10% going into their 401k, so then they might consider the other portion of their income to be needed to live off of rather than investing into something like bitcoin.  

I recall prior to 2014, I had been contributing into a 401k, so it was very compelling for me to do at least 5% for the employer matching, and then i could do another 10% or so since it was pretax dollars (and a kind of tax free), so then it would have had been difficult to still be able to invest into bitcoin if those were being maximized.. In late 2013, I had been looking for a substitute for my 401k since my employment was ending.. even though I still was able to keep the 401k, I just was not going to be able to add new value to it or to get the employer matching for the first 5% of the contributions.  It worked out quite well for me to be able to end up finding bitcoin as a substitute (or a complement) for my 401k..and by the way, the 401k had been building value for about 15 years, and so I figured that it would take around 10-20 years for any investments that I made, such as in bitcoin to end up matching my 401k values, but it seems that my BTC investment was matching my 401k values within about 3.5 years... and yeah a lot of that ended up being due to BTC price appreciation and just regular contributions to the BTC stash rather than any attempt so try to trade  the BTC or to time the market or any of those kinds of things that guys seem to want to do in their first cycle investing into BTC.. so it just seems better to just stay focused on continually buying BTC until getting enough or more than enough.


I had never accused bitmover of NOT keeping sufficient quantities of his BTC, and I have always suspected that he had been keeping more than half of his BTC no matter what, yet part of the problem, that I perceive, is that guys are selling in order to either buy back cheaper or they are engaging in a waiting game.. waiting for the BTC price to fall so they can buy, and those waiting games are not very good when 1) guys already don't have enough BTC and 2) BTC prices are going up without any meaningful drops.. .. Pretty much from November 2022 until now there have not been a whole hell of a lot of meaningful drops in the BTC price... sure there have been some BTC price drops, but still, it seems that it would have had been much better to just continue to buy and not to be looking at the BTC price...and yeah, bitmover is not in his first cycle, so he has had time to go through a whole cycle of accumulating BTC, yet still sometimes a whole cycle of accumulating BTC is still not enough... There are many guys (if not most) who need several cycles to get to a point of having had accumulated enough or more than enough, and in my own situation, I was ONLY able to accumulate BTC more quickly than regular folks since I had already spent more than 20 years investing prior to coming into bitcoin, so in late 2013 and thereafter, I had way more of an investment portfolio to work with as compared with so many guys who are ONLY able to DCA with their salary and maybe something like 5% to 25% of their income is still going to be a challenge to even accumulate enough BTC in 1 whole cycle... so sure there are some guys who come to bitcoin, and they already have investment portfolios, so they may well be advantaged in terms of being able to accumulate BTC more quickly as compared to an overwhelming majority of normies who barely have any money to invest, and if they do have money to invest, their money may well be tied up in their own personal residential and perhaps a 401k, if they are lucky to have such a thing.

There you go buddy:

https://www.mstr-tracker.com/

Currently:

Does anyone know a website where we can see a chart like GBTC's discount or premium to N.A.V. chart but for MicroStrategy? That could be another opportunity for those people who want to earn more units in Bitcoin, but who are also less-inclined to walk on the path towards shitcoining.

Plus this chart isn't free anymore? https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav

If anyone was not very clear on a strategy to accumulate bitcoin, in these recent posts is a summary of JJG's strategy that he has been explaining in other threads as well.


On this point you are right but I have not advocated exactly the same thing and I will explain why. If a guy starts accumulating bitcoin and has a modest salary, of which he can save let's say 10%, to buy bitcoin it's going to be many years before he can accumulate enough for a fuck-you status. Then let's say that, being generous, that person reaches more than enough bitcoin in three cycles (we can assume that during that time he receives raises at his job and extra money in bonuses or other forms). 12 years saving without being able to enjoy the profits is a long time, although the most profitable thing in investments in general is not to touch them, and I would bet that very few people keep an investment 12 years without touching it that is not in a retirement fund. But apart from that, it's 12 years without having made a single bitcoin transaction.

So, what you say is mathematically the most reasonable, accumulate aggressively until you are sure you have more than enough, but in my case what I have done is to take advantage of the bull markets to make partial sales, sometimes directly spending the bitcoin to buy something, which seems to me to have two advantages.

1. You can enjoy a little the profits of the investment. It's more of a psychological issue than anything else for me.
2. You learn how bitcoin transactions work in a practical way. You know what it is like to send a transaction with the average fee at that moment and it stays stuck in the mempool for a while because there is a huge dump of transactions from a casino, an exchange or spammers with their images. You learn and perform RBF, for example.

This I have always done with small amounts of my total bitcoin, which from a mathematical point of view is stupid, I admit. Because if I use a tiny part of what I have when the price reaches $120K, I will keep buying later when it reaches $200K, but being very small parts of what you have I do not see it wrong for the above. I already have two investments in which I put money and I don't enjoy the profits such as paying the mortgage and putting money in retirement funds, so enjoying a little of the bull market doesn't seem bad to me, and at the end of the day my total net worth, whether in bull or bear market, whether I have sold a little of my bitcoin or not, continues to grow, which I think is what is important.

Although, yes, I admit that what you propose, not selling/spending any of your bitcoin until you have more than enough, is the most mathematically correct thing to do. Although for me, if someone like bitmover for whatever reasons has been selling parts of his bitcoin but always keeps part of his net worth in it, it is OK, although he himself admits that he sold more than he should have in the past.

I addressed this point too.

A guy with 7 BTC does not need to buy 14 BTC more to reach the equivalent of a guy at 21 BTC today.

yeah, sure he is not going to get to 21 BTC, yet in 5-6 years, his 7 BTC, and anything that he accumulates in the next 5-6 years is likely going to be equivalent to 21 BTC today (at least in dollar terms - not counting the debasement of the dollar).  

So today 21 BTC is equal to 885k under the 200-WMA, and $2.13 million under spot price.  

Today 7 BTC is equal to $295k under the 200-WMA and $710k under spot price.

Sure, it is not guaranteed where we are going to be in 5-6 years, yet I would think that we are likely going to be damned close if not exceeding in terms of what the 7 bitcoin is going to be worth in 5-6 years including being able to get the same guy to fuck you status as long as he sticks with the bitcoin, and surely we have to have some flexibility in our timeline and we likely need to continue to keep on accumulating rather than resting on our laurels.. .. and sure, nothing wrong with diversifying too if that makes you more comfortable.....

and yeah, if it had taken you 7.5 years to get to nearly 7 BTC, which would be at about $200 per week on average and nearly $80k invested into bitcoin, if you stuck with around $300 per week for the coming 5 years, then that would be $15,600 per year and maybe around $86k for the next 5.5 years.. .which might get you another 0.5 BTC, perhaps.

So I am not even suggesting that you need to build your BTC up by very much, just let bitcoin continue to compound and stack what you can, even if you cannot stack at the same rate that you had stacked in your first 7.5 years.

And, sure, by the way, these numbers are all fictional in terms of just giving some ballpark ideas of what might have had happened, and how to consider how much progress had been made historically and potentially how to deal with the current situation in order to prepare for something like 5-6 years down the road.

We cannot be whining that some guys are at their goals and we are not at our goals, since everyone starts from different places, and each of us can ONLY do as much as we can do, including that if we had made some past mistakes by selling, trading or even by being more whimpy (less aggressive) than we should have had been in our BTC accumulation.  We have to deal with our own choices in terms of what we did or did not do and just continue to do what we believe is best, since we cannot turn back the clocks.


This must be our first fight.. hahahahahaha

I use $2 million as default entry-level fuck you status for folks with western incomes and western standards of living expectations, and even in the west people might consider their entry-level fuck you status differently, and I think that part of the reason that I use $2 million as the entry-level is that I thought that I had to double millionaire status to account for events around early 2020.. so I think pretty much we realized that the millionaire had to have $2 million and not $1 million, and sure some folks hypothesize that the hit is much worse than a doubling.. but for now I am just going to stick with $2 million to be default entry-level fuck you status.

The more appropriate and individually-tailored mark would be to go by your standard of income or how much income you need to get to fuck you status.  Under traditional investment assets, generally you need 25 years of income in order to live passively off of it at 4% per year.

I personally believe with bitcoin that you can have 10 years of income measured at the 200-WMA and then withdraw 10% per year (of the dollar value not the BTC value, which is a mistake that we have in the website)... .. so anyhow, the guy withdrawing 4% per year at $2 million would withdraw $80k per year, and the guy withdrawing 10% per year would need to have his BTC valued at $800k at the 200-WMA price in order to withdraw the dollar value... and of course, under the way that it is charted in the sustainable withdrawal website, my proposition is that he can ONLY withdraw the full dollar amount of $80k per year as long as the BTC spot price was at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA... which by the way, right now $800k is reached by having 19 BTC, and currently BTC's spot price is right around 141% higher than the 200-WMA.

The punchline is to pick out your cost of living and how much income do you want to have.  If you are not making $80k per year and you do not expect that you need $80k per year to get to your entry-level fuck you status, then surely you can pick your number.  Is $40k enough?  another number?  You should figure that out, and also figure out if you are going to want to have an increase in that number, so even if you had been used to earning somewhere around $20k per year, maybe you want to make sure that by the time you enter entry level fuck you status or that you start to employ it (pull the fuck you lever), that maybe you want to have 50% higher.. such as $30k per year for some one who had been accustomed to living off of $20k per year.. and sure, if my numbers are still not correct, you can still adjust them to yourself, it is not like I am trying to impose my standards of living kinds of numbers on you, and you should not even accept my standard of living numbers being imposed upon you, since you have your own standard of living numbers.  I am not even proclaiming that my own standard of living numbers are the same as the default standard of living numbers that I suggest that we use.  It is just good to have a reference, and there are surely some folks that may well consider their fuck you status to be 1/10th the level that I proclaim them to be... so he would reach fuck you status at $200k rather than $2 million under traditional systems, and at $80k rather than $800k using bitcoin as the measure (which I again suggest to be using the 200-WMA rather than spot price to valuate BTC holdings, even though so many folks valuate based on spot price which leads to the kinds of selling too much too early errors that I had already gone over).


The reason that we should be using the 200-WMA to valuate our BTC holdings, then that means that we are accounting for bottom BTC prices, and we don't over valuate our BTC in terms of selling too many too soon or presuming that our BTC is going to hold value at spot prices.  If we use the 200-WMA then we account for the bottom BTC prices and we structure our management of our holdings based on that... I already went over this, but having 7 BTC would be valuated at $295k under the 200-WMA, even though we could sell them at $710k at spot price right now, so if we might be trying to get our BTC to be valued at $800k or more under the 200-WMA, then we need to keep accumulating, and surely in 5-6 years, even if we don't accumulate much more, with the passage of time, the 200-WMA will likely bring our 7 BTC at or close to $800k, and perhaps even higher than  $800k  by then, yet if we want to keep stacking then we might not need as many BTC in order to get to such $800k plus valuation.. and yeah, each of us has to plug in our own numbers, but I think that a person with 7 BTC or even 1/3 of the way to his fuck you status based on the 200-WMA has decent chances of reaching or exceeding his fuck you status 5-6 years from now as long as he does not screw it up.. and screwing up probably has to do with selling rather than buying.. if he keeps buying he should be in better shape.. but yes a lot of people never make it to fuck you status because they screw up... the spend too much too soon.. which is also true in bitcoinlandia.. with temptations to trade or to buy back cheaper or get involved in shitcoins or various other practices that take guys away from what should be their goals to continuously, ongoingly and persistently and perhaps even aggressively continue to stack cornz.

Another mistake that guys tend to do might be what you seem to be doing is to act as if accumulating bitcoin is futile or trying to rationalize that the price is too high and blah blah blah.. so even if you don't sell any BTC around these here prices, you are likely ongoingly failing and/or refusing to buy bitcoin as persistently, consistently, ongoingly and aggressively as you should be.  Ultimately, you do what you want, but there are consequences to failures and refusals to continue to buy BTC, including that there are likely many folks who were not stacking as much BTC as they should have had been between March 2024 and October 2024 when we were largely bouncing around between $55k and $70k.  I am not specifically suggesting that you were doing that, but you could have had been...

I have frequently tried to suggest that guys need to be as aggressive as they are able to be in terms of their ongoing bitcoin accumulation without overdoing it.. or without recking themselves.  It can be difficult to know where the grounds are in regards to ongoing BTC accumulation, since each of has to make sure that we are not spending beyond our discretionary income, and we have to maintain some back up funds, and we also likely have obligations (and desires) in our lives that draw us towards not overly spending our discretionary income completely on bitcoin.

I think your thoughts are very good and I agree with most of you said in the post. Certainly, I might have sold more than I should in the past (which I don't bother much, except that I didn't bought back all I could have). But I am fine with that.

However, I want to point out that it is not possible for a guy with 7 BTC to accumulate to 14 more BTC in the current prices. That would mean 1.5 million dollars.

Unless you are talking about someone already in the fuck-you status (i think that is the term you use), it is impossible to someone just save 2 millions and invest it in bitcoin. Unless the guy earn like $ 300,000 per year, which definitely not my case.

Even if you are talking about 200 WMA price (42k), that would mean 600 thousand dollars (this would literally mean timing the market and buying the correct DIP, statistically impossible). And 600 thousand dollars is a lot of money for a person who owns "only" 7 BTC.

We might be deviating a bit from the topic of the thread, since earlier I was trying to provide an example to attempt to describe how one person might be willing (and motivated) to diversify into something like MSTR in order to try to build their BTC holdings faster (which may or may not even be prudent anyhow, yet the person is motivated), and another person might consider that he is in a high enough value of a position that he would not feel any necessity to diversify into something like MSTR.

Yet if we think about the matter, the guy who is already established is probably even in a better position to fuck around with something like MSTR as compared with the guy who is still building his investment portfolio, who might need to stay more conservative until he builds his investment portfolio...

AT the same time, nothing is really black and white in terms of how much risk or how much diversification a guy might want to have in his portfolio while he is building it and then once he reaches certain value thresholds there might be a decent amount of utility to balance out his desires for growth into diversification strategies that are meant to preserve rather than grow value.

I have some personal issues with ideas that growth would come from investing into something like MSTR rather than starting with BTC first, especially since the MSTR is already known to be an additional risk on top of bitcoin, and my own ideas have been that any newbie investor should be able to start out by merely investing only in bitcoin, so they would just balance out their investment with bitcoin and cash, and so depending on how aggressive that they might be in their investment, it could take them 10 years to just build up 1 year's investment of their income into their investment portfolio (10% per year adds up to 10 years), and surely some guys are capable of investing more aggressively, so they will be able to progress more rapidly in terms of the size of their investment portfolio.  

I am not really sure if there are any needs to diversify prior to getting your investment portfolio up to some thing close to a year of your income/expenses.  Sure if the investment portfolio is also changing value based on changes in BTC prices, then your calculation could also be influenced by such BTC price appreciation while you are building your BTC stash.

Ultimately there is quite a bit of discretion regarding when and how much to diversify.. and if so? into what?

Back to some overall ideas of your description of your own situation.  I gather that you are suggesting that if the goal were 21 BTC, you are more like the 7 BTC guy rather than the 35 BTC guy... so you are feeling that you are making progress in your BTC accumulation, yet it is taking a while to build your BTC stash, so you are maybe 1/3 of the way towards what you perceive to be your goal... yet at the same time, from your description, you are valuating your BTC based on spot prices rather than the 200-WMA since in your subsequent (below) remark, you said that you might be close to reaching your goal (which you call FIRE (Financially independent, retire early) - and I frequently refer to as fuck you status) if BTC prices were to reach $250k.  Of course, I find that problematic for anyone to be relying on BTC spot prices for valuating their BTC, since from my perspective, it seems to motivate guys to sell large portions (if not all) of their BTC rather than mostly holding onto it and figuring out ways to engage in sustainable withdrawal (whether price based sustainable withdrawal or time based sustainable withdrawal).  

Surely when you are describing your own situation as being 40% in bitcoin, surely, that is not any kind of a whimpy BTC allocation, yet part of the problem is that you may well be allowing BTC's price appreciation affect your assessment, since maybe you had not been allocating into bitcoin at 40%, yet bitcoin's growth has caused your portfolio to be 40% bitcoin, and maybe I am also a bit confused by your other 60%, unless you are saying that your investment portfolio is 40% bitcoin, 40% Brazilian bonds and then 20% some other things.  Doesn't it feel like we are deviating a bit from this topic, unless you are saying that you might be considering the extent to which MSTR might fit in there?    and surely  I would not be totally opposed to such an idea, even though I am maybe a little bothered by some of your assessments that might have been allowing your to be reallocating your BTC or selling your BTC at various points in time prior to reaching overallocation.

As you likely realize that my own position is that no one should be selling any of their BTC until they get to a point of overallocation, and surely even my own position can be quite ambiguous when trying to apply to situations in which guys might be still in fairly early stages of building their overall investment portfolio and trying to figure out their fuck you status.  I would imagine that if you are using something like $250k BTC as allowing your to reach fuck you status, then how do those numbers come out when you consider the 200-WMA and BTC valuations that are based on the 200-WMA that is currently at about $42,133?

You can do whatever you like, yet I personally believe that in order to figure out how many BTC that you need to reach whatever happens to be your FIRE number, you should be valuating how many BTC that you believe that you need based on the 200-WMA rather than based on BTC spot prices, so that you don't get too carried away by BTC spot prices, make sure you keep building your BTC stash and you are not overly selling too many BTC prior to your actually reaching a status of having more than enough.

I don't want to get too much into your own personal circumstances, yet if we continue to use the idea of 7 BTC and then we look at our current spot price, we get a valuation of right around $700k, and if we look at a BTC spot price of $250k for that same 7 BTC, we have $1.75 million... yet if we look at the 200-WMA for the same 7 BTC, we have a valuation of about $300k  I am not sure what those valuations would mean for you, since you would have to figure out your own numbers, and sure within that I have no problem with the idea of diversifying your portfolio including Brazilian bonds, anything else that you have and/or if you might be considering having MSTR in the mix, and surely your goal for BTC might ONLY be one part of your overall investments, and some parts of your investment portfolio would likely be considered as more valuable and other parts less valuable... but hopefully any part of the investment portfolio that you are maintaining has justification in your own ways of thinking for why it is in there and that you are properly assessing its valuation.


It sounds to me that you are planning to overly sell your BTC for less valuable assets, so I am not really sure what to say.  Nothing wrong with having a house, either.

Many times I suggest that guys mostly let the BTC portion of their investment ride, so I don't really agree with ideas of reallocating of BTC, except maybe very little along the way, but surely only having had clearly reached overallocation.. yet I get the sense that you might be continuously reallocating, so taking out of your winners (BTC) and allocating to your various other losers in order to stay balanced.  It is like having a lawn and watering the weeds so that they can keep up with the grass (or whatever your good plants are).

We already know that bitcoin is a killer asset, even though it is quite volatile, yet it is largely volatile to the upside, especially if we are zooming out more than 4 years.  Sure it is not guaranteed to go up on a 4-year timeline, but the investment thesis for bitcoin remains quite strong, including that even though BTC prices seem outrageously high right now, there is no evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker in recent times, even though rich people, institutions and governments seem to be wanting to crowd out retail with their recent attention to bitcoin, but many of the rich people, institutions and governments remain slow to act, and so in that sense normies like us can continue to front-run them by focusing on stacking sats and don't be fucking around with selling any until you clearly have gotten to a state of overallocation... which you have to figure out how many BTC is your "overallocation" level.  Again, if we are getting a wee bit too off topic, since I am not even sure if you are considering whether to have MSTR in your investment portfolio, then I don't mind taking this to another thread since it truly seem to have a lot of juicy considerations that a lot of guys likely end up having to weigh out in terms of both their bitcoin accumulation journey, yet also how to maintain such BTC allocation in light of some other investments that they have, too.


I think that you are saying the same thing as me, Poker Player (or at least something very similar), but you are saying it differently.

I would say, that you should not be authorizing yourself to be selling any of your bitcoin until you have clearly reached a state of overaccumulation, and since there are so many ways to measure overaccumulation, guys seem like they wrongly assess that they have reached such status of overaccumulation before they have, since they are tied to some of the traditional ideas of reallocating their bitcoin, which seems to be somewhat how bitmover is thinking about his BTC stash.  Sure, in the end, bitmover, and any other forum member can do whatever they like, yet to me it seems quite short sighted to be reallocating out of BTC based on BTC price appreciation rather than ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying BTC until they are really sure that they have more than enough.

So, getting back to the 7 BTC versus 21 BTC versus 35 BTC example, if a guy has concluded that 21 BTC is currently enough or more than enough, then anywhere higher than 21 BTC would allow him to start to shave off some of his BTC from time to time, and if he is really conservative in his shaving off of his BTC then his BTC value is likely to continue to grow in value faster than he is shaving it off, and then perhaps later he might feel like he can shave off more aggressively.

Yet a guy with only 7 BTC has not yet gotten there, but he knows his target, so he knows that he has to keep accumulating, and even in the less preferable  scenarios that he spends several years attempting to accumulate more BTC and he only moves from 7 BTC to 7.25 BTC after another 5 years of accumulating, he likely realizes that another 5-ish or 6-ish years down the road, 7.25 BTC may well be of a similar valuation (including calculating the likely ongoing debasement of the dollar) as the 21 BTC is valued today.. especially if we are using the 200-WMA rather than getting distracted by BTC spot prices.  Yes, it is not guaranteed to increase in value as much as we expect, but still, bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best investments currently available, so as you mentioned @Poker Player, it would likely be in our best interests to attempt to remain focused on the accumulation of bitcoin rather than fucking around with other assets, at least until we reach a status of having more than enough bitcoin.  Sure the accumulation of some other assets, may well be fine and dandy just to offset some potential and likely ongoing volatility issues of bitcoin, yet keeping our eye on the prize (which is bitcoin) seems to be central to making sure that we are making progress to our own financial freedom (and having more options) kinds of goals.

That's one thing that both JJG and I (me later, as I came later to the forum) have repeated countless times: never sell all your bitcoin. Especially now that it is truly proving to be the best asset you can have. If it continues, as it seems to, to appreciate over time as fiat currencies devalue, you will be able to make partial sales while maintaining a nice equity with the remaining bitcoin.

I find myself in pretty much that situation.

I bought about 5% of my overal portfolio in bitcoin in 2017. I was able to duplicate that stash with signature and other campaigns here. I realized about 20% of it in 2021 bull run (avg price about 55k)

In the end, I have about 40% of bitcoin now, and 60% of a diversified portfolio (about 40% in Brazil bonds, but I feel safe).

I won't be able to accumulate much more bitcoin. Maybe I can buy some more in the crypto winter if the price goes below 50k (which may not happen), but even at $50k it would be very hard to buy one whole bitcoin ( I don't know if I need to add that risk)


Maybe in the end, I hope to achieve my FIRE status with just my little btc stash. If BTC price can maintain itself above 250k I will probably retire (I will need to sell some, to make a diversified and solid portfolio to leave my job. Maybe even a house).

But my plan is to always keep at least 20-25% of bitcoin

Building an investment portfolio takes time, and surely we might need to adapt our goals with changes in various aspects of our circumstances and/or even changes in our target asset versus other possible places that we might choose to put our value.  There is no real right answer, even for any specific person since a guy may even assess his own particular circumstances badly (or wrongly) and need to make adjustments along the way.

With the 7 BTC example verus the 21 BTC goal versus the 35 BTC example, I was not necessarily wanting to comment on whether 7 BTC might already be enough, yet I was trying to frame it with a hypothetical framework in which each person had considered 21 BTC to be enough bitcoin right now (at this time in the market), yet 1 person was still way under that target (only around 33% to the target) and the other person was right around 66% above the target, and to flush out the example even further, I am not even presuming valuations of the BTC holdings based on BTC spot prices, but instead considering the 200WMA as a way to valuate holdings..

Since our 200-WMA is current at right about $42.2k, 7 BTC would reflect about a $300k valuation, 21 BTC would reflect about a $900k valuation and 35 BTC would represent about a $1.5 million valuation.   Yes, I know that spot price is about 142% higher than the 200 WMA, yet any plan that I consider would not be cashing out BTC for cash but instead engaging in some kind of attempt at sustained withdrawal.

In regards to diversification, it may well be questionable the extent to which MSTR represents diversification, since generally the idea of diversification would be outside of the same sector, and surely, I don't have any problem of splitting up some exposure, but the level of diversification would not really be very great between BTC and MSTR... even though MSTR seems to leverage someone what BTC's already existing volatility.

You’ve highlighted some great points about Bitcoin’s appeal as a stable, straightforward investment that avoids third-party risks. The simplicity of holding BTC directly is undeniably attractive, especially when paired with its scarcity and potential for massive future value. While holding 7 BTC could still provide significant financial freedom in the right market conditions, a larger cushion like 35 BTC offers greater flexibility and security, particularly in volatile times. It’s all about finding the level of holdings that aligns with your financial comfort and goals.

Diversification, however, is worth considering. Investments like MicroStrategy (MSTR) can provide indirect exposure to BTC with potential additional upside, but they also come with added corporate risks. Balancing simplicity with calculated risks could be the key to optimizing your strategy. Whether you stick to BTC alone or explore other vehicles, the focus should be on aligning with your risk tolerance while staying adaptable to market dynamics. Ultimately, it’s about achieving both financial freedom and peace of mind.