Topic: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ - page 27. (Read 20925 times)

In my opinion, if we pay attention to the discount on the market price of Microstrategy's stock, I think it has a cause and effect as well where the level of market concern related to regulatory issues or security breaches can contribute to the price of Microstrategy's shares.

In the OP you can find a link to a spreadsheet.
There you can find this:



Each share of Microstrategy is worth 267.66 USD, while the Bitcoin they hold are worth 320.98 USD.
This is a hefty 20% discount.

Probably the reasons are the market is discounting some hassle related either from Sivlergate distress or rather a difficulty for Microstrategy to go on with their Bitcoin Strategy due to more adverse banking system.

I don't know, but it's a good trade to jump on.

For sure, I am not claiming to have any specific knowledge - and the latest that I had heard was that a decent amount of MSTR's loans were held at Silvergate, even with a claim that the collateral for such loans was not held at Silvergate - but I had not seen any meaningful clarification regarding the safety of that collateral.

Personally, I hardly see any reason to worry about if there might be aspects of uncertainties if a loan (or payments) might start to come due in 4-5 years - and there had already been statements from Saylor that there was not any risk (did he overstate the legality of the matter) that payments (or even the whole loans) would end up getting triggered to have to be paid earlier than their agreed upon date (4-5 years from now), and for sure if the collateral were actually at risk (and it was not believed that the collateral was actually safely held - if specifics are not provided in regards to how it is held (or by whom)) then any kinds of uncertainties, whether real or imagined could lead to price disparities (or diminution) in regards to MSTR's current market share prices.

I know that I am not really providing any answers, but I don't claim to have any answer - except maybe I have some similar questions regarding the security of any coins held by MSTR - including coins held in collateral (and by whom?  is there a need to know?).. I personally have fewer worries about any of their outstanding loans getting called (become due) early - and I suppose I had been reassured by Saylor's statement (or was it a tweet?) in that direction... not that I am an investor in MSTR.. but surely there has been nearly persistent and building MSTR FUD which sometimes can have short-term effect on BTC prices (or sentiments).

Anyone knows the reason the $MSTR price is suddenly severely lacking the value of the number of bitcoin per share?

I have seen this news and there seems to be no confusion regarding the rumored proximity of microstrategy to Sivergate capital. Well their bankruptcy has occurred in the last 3 months as published by https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7038920782495793152 assuming a loss of $1 billion. some new rumors, it seems that some of sivergate capital's top shareholders will inject fresh funds to help it out of the liquidity crunch.
https://twitter.com/qsjy9898/status/1632616756991885312?t=UzO5eYmL7owq8XGBWMkSew&s=19

with this incident there is a little explanation from Saylor which was broadcast by SQUAWK https://twitter.com/BNBTCCRYPTO/status/1631429221737168898?t=YAhuUOqtxDIYJ1Ok15RLnA&s=19

And as a consequence, Silvergate Bank announced the termination of its own payment network SEN (Silvergate Exchange Network), such an announcement can now be seen at the top of the home page of their website. SEN was used in particular Binance.US , Kraken and Gemini.

https://www.silvergate.com/

A lot of chatter on Twitter about the close relationship between Microstrategy and Silvergate.

MicroStrategy Says It Doesn’t Have Any Assets Custodied With Silvergate



The Microstrategy loans is an asset to Silvergate Capital. This asset can be sold to other counterpart, so that proceeds can be used to satisfy Silvergate creditors.
This asset sale doesn't mean absolutely nothing for Microstrategy, hose collateral is not at risk of being liquidated.

There are always going to be folks who are able to take advantage of the market and to take advantage of price momentum, whether we are talking about bitocin or otherwise, including possible insiders; however, it seems to me that Saylor/MSTR can largely be taken at their word in terms of pretty much buying at any price, and not fucking around with trading or trying to manipulate (except to the extent to which he might be ongoingly describing BTC prices as "going up forever.")... so Saylor largely seems to be a buyer at any price, even though maybe in recent times, he might be appreciating that he may have overstepped his bounds by failing/refusing to wait for dips, which largely seems to demonstrate to me, that he does not really have any better or more priviledged position than the rest of us in terms of his mostly betting on UP in a persistent way.

Saylor/MSTR also does not sell BTC, even though they could purposefully manipulate the BTC price down if he  were to want to with his more than 130k BTC, and sure normies (likely no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoiners, fence sitters) accuse Saylor all of the time of either engaging in such BTC price manipulation practices or having intentions to engage in such practices.. which largely seem to be a bunch of baseless bullshit... perhaps to either trick normies out of their coins or to contribute towards normies failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately stack sats in order to prepare themselves for UP (no guarantees of UP for sure, but those who do not sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP are likely going to just have to buy their BTC at higher prices, and how much that they have to spend to stack their BTC stash likely has a lot to do with how long they diddly daddly around and fail/refuse to take sufficient actions to get started stacking).    ... wait around to your own peril...lot's of no coiners and low coiners out there, and we are still early as fuck.. especially if you consider that BTC adoption is likely quite less than 1%, and some of those folks who actually do own some BTC are quite likely under prepared for UPpity (ie lowcoiners).

Actually Bitcoin history is an important record for us to be able to hold Bitcoin. We have studied the movement of Bitcoin every year, and we continue to talk about these moments. Aside from what crypto gurus or Entrepreneurs like Michael Saylor talk about, everyone is aware of the growth in the price of Bitcoin, but very few dare to hold onto it, let alone in large quantities. When it comes to 2020, maybe it's been too long. Without us knowing it in 2023 from a price of $ 17k, and increased to $ 25k in a matter of days. An $8k profit is a pretty big number, but is everyone capitalizing on the moment? Maybe not. And when the price of $ 24k started to worry about buying, for fear that the price would drop like before. This is the problem of all of us today who only work with small capital. Unlike Michael Saylor, we know his net worth is $7B. Maybe he doesn't worry about anything when investing, because he can make the market price go up, or turn it into drops.

Before the price of Bitcoin increased in the previous few weeks, there was talk that the price of Bitcoin would increase. However, there are people who deny such information, and there are those who believe it. In fact, I often find information about Bitcoin price movements that are raised by newbie accounts. And they share sources of information from the media they find. I believe they are experienced people, but just want to hide their previous identity.

Like information about MicroStrategy investing in large amounts of Bitcoin. Of course before they invest, there are some people who already get this information faster and they take advantage of the moment.

According to an updated report filed by MicroStrategy with the SEC to date (February 16, 2023), they have sold 218,575 common shares for gross proceeds of approximately $46,600,000. MicroStrategy further stated that it intends to use the net proceeds from this offer for general corporate purposes, including, among other things, the acquisition of bitcoins.

Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312523041097/d454381d424b5.htm

Michael Saylor's new interview with Morgan Brennan, where he took a ride, sympathized with the criticism that poured out on Charlie Munger after his call for a ban on cryptocurrencies in America.
Saylor believes that such statements coming from Charlie Munger are related to his lack of awareness about the technologies that bitcoin reveals.

In fact, the CEO MicroStrategy does not exclude the need for regulation in the crypto industry, and gives an example of FTX calling SBF an entrepreneur irresponsibly implementing good ideas.
And told how MicroStrategy promotes the introduction of Bitcoin and Lightning technologies as a global, never gets turned off monetary system.

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1621548108269191168

This reminds me of every drop that has occurred in every quarter of the past 4 years, Where long time players in Crypto certainly had a moment at that time to buy btc at low prices but most of them relatively neglected to accumulate more BTC  in their bag .



source: read here

did see the consequences that Saylor did from 2020 of course he already had a peak when btc reached $65k but basically he is the true holder I have ever seen.

It seems that any of us can make these kinds of comparisons between others, and there does seem to be some requirements of getting into some details when we are making these kinds of comparisons, so I frequently talk in terms of percentages, and if I talk about bitcoin purchase or sales sizes, I will tend to talk in terms of hypotheticals.  However, Michael has obligations to make some specific disclosures, which does help for any of us to be able to attempt to talk more concretely how his strategy might compare to ours, and to even be complimentary or critical of various aspects of his strategies.

I have frequently asserted that any of us are likely to have way fewer ways in which we are psychologically stressed about our bitcoin financial situation when our holdings are in profits, and sometimes there are ways to frame certain portions (tranches) that might be in profits or that would have different average costs per BTC.  The more that we are in profits (or the less that we are in losses), the more likely that we are psychologically less burdened, but also the more that we are in profits, the more options that we seem to have in terms of being able to sell at profits, even if that level of profits could later end up being a less preferable route.. since the longer we have been studying bitcoin, the more likely we know about more and more examples of BTC holders who have regrets for selling too many bitcoin too soon, and sometimes they will end up becoming bitter no coiners as a result of their negative personal histories in that direction of selling too many BTC too soon.

Another thing about Saylor is that likely he has reached several multiples (perhaps magnitudes) higher than whatever his standard of living is and/or his entry-level fuck you status.  So there is likely a certain level of freedom that comes from having systems in place in which you are engaging in financial activities in ways that you mostly are not putting your standard of living at risk, so largely he is likely gambling, trading, investing with excess funds that he does not really need - even though it is possible that his having had put himself into such a public position, there is a certain amount of pride that is at stake in terms of wanting to be right and/or wanting to achieve some level of fame and legacy based on life accomplishments that are measurable/comparable to other historically rich influencers, so that surely is likely a factor that might differ with the rich and famous as compared to many of us folks who are either publicly unknown or that we might even be somewhat anonymous in terms of our forum/public participation in regards to these bitcoin-related topics.

I guess the only difference between you and Micheal Saylor is, regardless of the absolute entry levels of tour trades, the possibility to influence others.
Your aggressive buying was as at the time possibly moving your family and friends.
Micheal Saylor's buying could mean other corporate treasuries are moving into bitcoin.

I cannot see Micheal Saylor being worried about the price per se but about the failure of his idea of Bitcoin as a superior form of cash in the short term. With all the subsequent consequences on his (Microstrategy’s) business.

In some senses, I can relate to Saylor since I started to buy BTC in late 2013 towards the top of that peak, so it took a bit of time for my average cost per BTC to go below the current price, more or less 2.5 years for me.. and I had been relatively aggressively buying the whole time.

Saylor's level of aggressive buying of BTC seems to put aspects of my buying to shame in terms of percentage of his wealth.. not really referring to the quantity so much.. yet, I was getting the sense that he was being more aggressive than was fruitful for any kind of normal person since he was leveraging up so much, and in some sense, he is working with such large numbers that it becomes almost a totally different game in terms of his safety net and probably not even really putting his standard of living at risk... since he had already been living the life of a multi-millionaire with several yachts and also several luxurious housing that he was maintaining for many years.

In the end, he likely has become somewhat nervous about BTC's recent price performance, but likely not even close to as near as normies might worry about having an average cost per BTC that had been bordering 50% in the negative when the BTC price had gotten down to $15,479 - however, now he is getting back into a territory of ONLY being around 30% in the negative.  At one point my own holdings were around 70% in the negative when my average cost per BTC was in the mid $500s and the BTC price had dropped below $160 per BTC... so there can be some stress on regular people to have your investment that far down, even if you had previously felt that you had confidence in your investment, being that level in the negative can contribute towards your questioning your conviction in regards to your investment.

Thanks, and sorry I didn't check the spreadsheet table of BTC purchases Saylor makes in Every Quarter.

Now, looking at the percentage that Saylor is buying BTC he once made purchases in Q1 early 2021 and whether he will make purchases in Q1 early 2023.
If I look at the last buying area maybe it was a wise thing he did in the big crash that happened in the last year.

$9k difference from today's price if we look at the average buy entry he makes, which is $30397. almost close and I think Saylor breathes a little easier.

Absolutely.
According to the spreadsheet in OP actually the cheapest buying is the second tranche:




Clicking on the graph you open the full detail of the purchases.

Thanks for the link.  Regarding your point that I bolded above, Saylor's first couple of BTC purchases on behalf of Microstrategies were in the $10k to $11k territory which is surely quite a bit lower than his recent December BTC purchases and his own first BTC purchases of nearly 18k BTC for his own personal stash had average prices of below $10k.  

That information in regards to Saylor's and MSTR's first BTC purchases is outlined in the OP of this thread...

This is quite an interesting article to read https://u.today/michael-saylor-stays-bullish-on-bitcoin-while-microstrategy-mstr-up-23-in-2023

where mstr was up 23% earlier this year. even among ignorant observers on social media this is a short bubble but they are wrong.

Although it did not trigger a strong reaction to the increase in the price of BTC, it is certainly a strong signal that the MicroStrategy company's stock growth has been very good at the start of this year.

Therefore, I think Saylor December purchase of BTC was the cheapest buy he has ever made. well that's a good way to see how badass the saylor haters turn out when they see the big profits coming his way.

edit. The cheapest purchase as mentioned by the op occurred in the second phase of Q3/2020

Well, actually, Sailor, speaking about the product in relation to bitcoin, means that he is not a share and considers bitcoin as a commodity that is traded on exchanges through futures contracts, for example, the SEC and the CFTC hold the same opinion and found a link to their verdict:

https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7231-15