-snip-
....and it appears that even our 56% correction from $64,895 to $28,600 that kept us in the lower $30ks for more than two months was largely noise in this whole UPpity scheme.. even though it scared a lot of folks out of their coins because they wrongly concluded that we were out of the bull market.. and such loosey goosey discussion of short-term BTC price moves can surely cause BTC HODLers to lose their sight upon what is the prize exactly.. and that is BTC including trying to accept BIG picture trend ideas - while realizing that none of the specifics are guaranteed even though the odds remain favorable to the BIG picture trend ideas including that we are still likely in a bull market even though we may well experience another correction around here (or maybe not, too).
The last word I bolded shows that you still believe that the price of bitcoin will not experience a bigger correction than a few months ago which reached -56%.
Does not seem like I said that, exactly... although when BTC prices passed significantly above $46k in the past couple of weeks, I had considered that the odds had become pretty damned high.. perhaps moving from 58% to greater than 63% that the $28,600 bottom was in... and BTC price going quite significantly higher than $46k and even touching upon $52,956 yesterday seems to have increased the odds that $28,600 is the bottom for this cycle.. perhaps even going above 66%.. perhaps? perhaps?
Regarding other kinds of large correction ramifications, I am not going to rule out up to 80% BTC price corrections in the future.. but sometimes the level of correction and what is possible for a correction may well depend on how high the BTC price goes and how long it takes to get there.
For example, if the BTC price were to go up to $1.5 million in this particular cycle (which probably is in the lower single digits of possibilities.. maybe less than 2% odds), then the odds for a 80% or larger correction is more than reasonable... but if the high ONLY ends up being in the sub $100ks, then the odds of another 80% BTC price correction prior to going up above $100k would seem to be pretty damned low.. at least from my current perspective of what seems possible and/or reasonably within the odds of possible.
The price of bitcoin will not be independent of volatility so we cannot expect it to continue rising all the time.
One of the only things in bitcoin that is nearly inevitable is its likely ongoing volatility, including relatively violent volatility... so I am not even presuming that the BTC price is going to be volatile to the upside, especially in the short term.. but in the long term there are still pretty decent odds that BTC prices are going up.. at least greater than 50%.. and I already mentioned some of the models and you can assign whatever odds you like to them.
A price correction will grace the streets before the holder will finally receive the long awaited prize.
Huh? You are talking about now or in the future. Depends. I never said anything with any kinds of certainty.. I only talked about probabilities. You act like you know which way the BTC price is going to go before it happens, and I doubt that you know much of anything except perhaps assigning too high of probabilities to events that have not happened yet.
Weak hands will be greatly affected by the correction while strong hands will see it from a different perspective.
There were likely a lot of weak hands shaken in the 56% correction from $64,895 to $28,600.. so sure there are always some weak hands to shake and it is not always clear which are which but surely there can be some signs that weak hands likely in need to be shaken, but that does not necessarily mean that such shaking will happen.. sure we finally seem to have gotten a kind of spike correction down to $42,900 as I was typing my responsive post, but even with that kind of a spike correction, there is likely ongoing uncertainty if there might be more down from here or leveling off from here or we will return to UP from here.. hard to know, even though the trend can be your friend if you can figure it out, while it lasts.. and before it reverses.
Big holders will expect bigger rewards, while day or seasonal traders are constantly trying to maximize profits in the short term.
So what?
Bitcoin happens to be one of those asset classes that normies have front run the hell out of traditional status quo financial people, and hopefully the vast majority of normies do not get too involved in either trading or trying to figure out short term dynamics because short term dynamics do not matter as much as having a longer term plan.. and the Microstrategy/Saylor strategy - which also happens to be the subject matter of this thread tends to emphasize longer term strategies including ongoing BTC accumulation.
Do you believe that MSTR/Saylor has some kind of strategy other than what they have been asserting to be their strategy? You believe that they are going to dump on retail? Do you believe that they encourage other companies or institutions to dump on retail? I am not really sure where you are going with your arguments, ShowOff because it seems that MSTR has been buying into bitcoin in the past year-ish and promoting the idea of buying BTC.. so they neither promote selling nor trading as you seem to suggest that there is some kind of worry that normies might need to have in regards to others who might be trading or attempting to manipulate the BTC market.. and sure they can try, but there are some interesting and unique aspects of bitcoin that should motivate attempts to analyze it for what it is rather than merely making general statements that suggest
that normies might not be able to profit from attempting to follow some similar strategies as MSTR/Saylor, at least in terms of attempting to accumulate bitcoin and holding it for the long term. Of course, the use of credit might be beyond the means or abilities of a lot of normies.. but some might be successful in mimicking MSTR/Saylor in that regard too.. perhaps? perhaps?
Institutional investors including MicroStrategy are the reason why I should have a much stronger hand than day or seasonal traders, this is a risk I have fully considered so far.
I have frequently suggested that anyone getting into bitcoin should have at least a four year strategy, and surely if the strategy is longer than 4 years then that is great too... so it could take a lot of normies a few BTC cycles before they really are able to accumulate a sufficient quantity of BTC or that their accumulated quantity of BTC puts them into a place that they are beyond accumulation and either enter into maintenance or liquidation.
Of course, there are some people who are advantaged and can get into BTC with lump sums and transferring of value from other assets that they hold in the investment portfolio, but a lot of people may well have to rely on various forms of DCA investing and buying BTC on dips in order to build their BTC portfolio over time.. and surely some of those people would prefer the BTC price to stay down for longer and lower.. while they are able to accumulate more of it.. .. but normies can ONLY do what they can do and attempt to strategize as best as they can to 1) attempt to create a strategy that works for them 2) does not end up overinvesting or not being able to cover expenses, 3) create targets of BTC accumulation or value accumulation goals 4) reasonably attempt to employ customized BTC accumulation strategies that may well include lump sum investing, dollar cost averaging / DCA and buying on dips and 5) tweak their plans, strategies and implementations along the way as they learn more.
Michael Saylor's strategy regarding the commitment to bitcoin apparently caused anger in the S&P Dow Jones Indices, they decided to make the following adjustments to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 indices, including MicroStrategy Inc.which will be removed from the S&P SmallCap 600. The changes will take effect before the opening of trading on Monday, September 20, 2021, to coincide with the quarterly rebalancing: Healthcare Services Group will replace $MSTR MicroStrategy Inc. in the S&P SmallCap 600. MicroStrategy is no longer suitable for the S&P SmallCap 600, as well as United Insurance Holdings, according to a press release from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf
The anger of the S&P Small Cap 600 Index is so baseless that they even mention that the MSTR strategy is no longer compatible with the index. It seems to be fairer, they should explain more specific points. Which strategy is not suitable, does the company open in BTC investments making the index problematic? where is the problem. Even so far, MSTR's share price has remained stable. which market capitalization do they measure? CMIIW
Who gives any shits about whether the S&P 600 includes Microstrategy or not?
Surely, there could be a lot of understanding that if a company such as MSTR invests a lot into bitcoin then the company has a lot of its current value and potential future value tied up into such investment.. so surely the S&P 600 might have great reasons for removing MSTR from such index.. but has no impact on whether MSTR is a good investment or BTC is a good investment, and surely many members in this forum already recognize and have already realized a lot of the upside appreciation of BTC that is not really too likely to stop any time soon, even though there are likely going to be some corrections along the way... but again, so what and who cares about whether S&P 600 allows MSTR in their little club.
