Upthread
I wrote about another reason the power brokers need small blocks in order to remain in control of the blockchain. Read that post for background details on what I will write below.
But there is always an inviolable flaw with fungible money. And it always finds its way into any fungible money system in some form.
That is that any design for a fungible money system will always be a winner-take-all power vacuum. Bitcoin is no exception. And this is the flaw that @traincarswreck didn't know about.
In Bitcoin's case, I see numerous ways that it is a winner-take-all power vacuum.
As the small block size becomes dominated by power broker transactions, which ever broker pays
x% of the fees, they earn
x / (100 - x)% more profit per unit of hashrate than other miners (presuming electricity cost is equal), because the power broker can make sure he only sends his transactions to a miner who refunds his fees (or the power broker can run his own mining operation). Thus the power brokers become the miners, but since the one with more percentage will accumulate more percentage faster than the rest, then Bitcoin is a winner-take-all system. Tack on selfish-mining once one entity has 33% and the eventual 51% victory becomes even more accelerated.
If the power brokers had to complete against all the transactions made by the masses, then it would be more difficult for them to accumulate 51%. They would need to somehow be able to manipulate the masses. My project is an attempt to take advantage of this insight. Note PoW can't do it, because unlimited blocksize has no stable fee market security equilibrium. But my project is more than that, because it also will enable widescale knowledge trading (the killer app of blockchains) so while the fungible money aspect will grow, it will grow less than the non-fungible component, thus making humanity immune to the evil of fungible money.
Note that MPEx's system only settled daily and ditto LN's will have long settlement periods, thus my above math works.
Note that in high finance such as MPEx (which was able to accumulate a million Bitcoins), the one with more reserves accumulates more as compared to one with smaller reserves. This is a mathematical fact of finance. And this is another reason that all the Bitcoin will become owned by one entity eventually. This is why Nash's concept was flawed and not objective.
This is why Bitcoin is the system that will bring about 666 and the Revelation. All the fungible money wealth will become concentrated in one whale over time.
The problem is fungible money. It is evil. We must get rid of it. I'll show you how we do this and humankind will become very wealthy. We can defeat the idiocy of the elite. Of course the elite want a winner-take-all. They think the survival-of-the-fittest. What they don't seem to care about is that it means total destruction of humankind. But they apparently don't care about that. They think it is destined and they think there is no more objective system possible. But I think there is a more objective system, not based on fungible money (as I had explained in more detail upthread).
Edit: I want to add that the above logic explains why the power brokers of Bitcoin don't want large blocks, but it doesn't necessary follow that they don't want SegWit and hence LN. However, note that given any finite blocksize chosen (which can't later be increased because protocol changes are a political clusterfuck as I explained upthread), then LN will be forced to large centralized hubs which aggregate settlement back to the blockchain because the blocksize will not be able to accommodate minnows settling on the blockchain. Thus, the centralized hubs will become private fractional reserve banks, and the settlement back to the LN blockchain will become purely symbolic. These centralized hubs would keep their reserves in BTC in any case (because it is the dominant chain) and do their meaningful settlement on the Bitcoin blockchain. In other words, LTC will be only a transactional unit-of-exchange, not a unit-of-account for reserves (a mirror of the situation between gold and silver when they used to be money).
Thus I think the power brokers of Bitcoin will not allow SegWit to activate on Bitcoin because they would not want that transactional settlement noise and the potential bugs it could cause to risk the dominant chains status as the most reliable and dominant chain.
Thus not only do I think Bitcoin will never get larger blocks, I also think Bitcoin will never get SegWit.