the last long time of 220-250 range is telling me that 5 months can not be enough this time for something bigger than 400-500, if for every tiny move up, we need the same time frame to sustain it, then we can expect another big move toward 400 and that's it for 2015
i'm not talking about random pump that might occur in these 5 months
1. There are epochs in bitcoin. We had one-year downtrend. Now we have half-year consolidation. Then uptrend will start. I expect it to happen earlier than in 5 months.
2. People tend to expect tomorrow to be about the same as yesterday. We don't expect times to change. That's why people were over-optimistic during rally and are (IMO) over-pessimistic now. They expect for consolidation to go on forever.
3. Reward halving is one year away. It should cause price doubling. But the doubling won't happen overnight. It should start much earlier.
4. ETF. They cannot drag it forever. There are still chances (however slim ) of it happening this year.
That's why I expect more than 30% up (i.e. $400) this year, although not necessarily ATH.