Topic: Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations] - page 6. (Read 47531 times)

This thread is embarrassing, just put it to bed.

Always enjoy this thead.

Thanks for the info.

Strong buy and sell signals on the simple moving average (12h):

The latest uptrend was from ~325 (open) till ~450 (close); +38%.



The selling is going slower than what I initially expected.
However, I am confident that we will see lower prices again.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $426.42)

I can see the price going down for the remainder of this month.
The rally was fun but all good things must come to an end.

See you in 2016. Take care.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $442.19)

I am busy so this heads up is from my phone:

I have sold around $418. The upside momentum is not too strong at this point. My strategy for now is to wait and see what is going to happen before buying back in.

I will try to update with more analysis.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $417.00)

I'm aware dawg. It was only a pull back before moving up further.
Selling there missed more upside potential.

Unless you're implying that you traded out at ~$380 and then bought back in at ~$350 to profit, but based on the rest of your posts on this forum I'm not really thinking that was what you were looking to do. 

It did.

look at the dates of those posts.

Hmm did it? If I were a trader that sold into that one I wouldn't be too happy right now.

Nice call. Cheers. 

This ascending channel is strong.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX 392.25)

Momentum indicators are mixed. 1Hr mom suggests correction time. 4hr....more upside potential than down, but still potential for down side....1 Day mom, weighing heavily to the downside and that big run up we just had from $320s, had 1 Day mom at it's back the whole of the way.

I think Bitcoin has to go down further, before taking out the $385...

I am anticipating something like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tew1bvSN/ (price in €uros as per Kraken)

If Bitcoin gets down into my day trade Long RLZ (green), then I will go long, up until my Short RLZ, and if/when BTC gets up there (or even a bit above), then I am hunting for shorts. If BTC plays out something along these lines, then your 12hr BB trend will remain intact, until it doesn't. If what I am envisaging plays out, then it will also make for a rather nasty Head & Shoulders formation on the chart......I anticipate a 'bottom' will be found somewhere down in the $330s.

At the moment, Bitcoin seems to playing ping pong between 38.2% retracements, the largest cycle of which ($500-$300) failed at $380s. I anticipate that BTC will not breach this large cycle 38.2% retracement on the next attempt, and will go down to find support at 61.8% retrace of the $300-$380 rally, having already bounced of the 38.2% retrace of the $300-$380 rally at around $350.

Will we continue in this channel? I think something like this:



Trading below that simple moving average is a strong sell in my opinion.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $352.55)

Looks like the Bearish Divergence wins this time around.

Yes, I agree. Particularly strong trends remain overbought or oversold for extended periods.
Bearish divergence could trick you into betting against the trend at the wrong time.

The price action is in a bullish channel. For now my exit strategy is at ~$350.
Good moment for buying and holding because we are aiming for higher prices.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $360.91)

The thing about divergences on technical indicators is that they're all lagging in terms of displayed information. What looks like bearish divergence now may get destroyed, but there is no way of knowing until after the fact. The previous run up to ~$500 had a ton of bearish divergences along the way in those time frames, and they were blasted through. If the divergences currently fit the picture with other factors, I'd take them into consideration, but I wouldn't pay much attention _yet..

Does the steadily increasing bearish divergence on 1hr and 4hr charts not concern you?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a8zjxHmI/

If Bitcoin is going to get to $400 on this move, then it is going to require a shit ton of retail investors stupid enough to gobble up $380+ sell walls, only to run into a barrage of selling pressure around $400 mark.

New week, new money flowing in. On our way to $400.



Strong buy and sell signals on the simple moving average (12h).

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $376.57)

My analysis is mostly about quickly identifying good buying and selling opportunities as they arise.

For now I am not sure yet where to sell or go short, because this is the time to increase your positions in bitcoin.
However, you are right that $370 should become interesting. My last sell signal was at $370.48 (previous page).

I will update when I identify new developments! Best of luck to everyone.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $331.58)

Yep...U called it......test of $300 zone seems to be bullishly resolved, with Bitcoin finally putting in a nice W double bottom at end of trading range.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/W1RLdWQn/

What are you targetting as the next resistance and/or short RLZ?

$370?

It is not uncommon to see a previous level of resistance change its role and become a new area of support.
This seems to be the case here when we broke the Jan-Oct 2015 resistance of ~$310 on Oct 29th.
Since then the bulls were able to keep the bitcoin price from slipping below this area on multiple occasions.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $320.06)