Topic: Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations] - page 5. (Read 47531 times)

think you're right (and hope so)

I am buying here. I believe bitcoin is close to bottoming.
To get in more of a bullish trend we have to aim for $390 and stay above $380.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $370.10)

No doubt, but I seen enough of BTC to know that if a cluster of Stop Orders appear in a zone, that is reason enough for the market to move into that zone.

I mean just look at last nights action. $380 BTC. Crash through 'support' at $370, panic sells down to $360, and then with a snap of the fingers, right back up to $380...except it wasn't right back up to $380, it was right back up to $386. All the Shorts that were set prior to the break down, whose targets were never hit, would have had their Stops at $384, $385, $386 etc. What is the 'point' in this sort of price action? Is it really simply down to aggregate movements of the herd, or is it actually very deliberate and engineered? I believe the latter.

Swish swish, go the Chinese Whales......as their purses fill up ever increasingly with USD, BTC, CNY etc.....(but especially USD)

The shaking up can happen also without intentional manipulation. People have different stop levels - but they tend to cluster, when the price gets into such cluster the move gets accelerated by the stop orders.

For some time, I was in the $315 Final Test of Monster Support camp.....

.....but the more I look at the way BTC is working, 'they' seem to push the market just far enough to freak out bulls/bears, have them panic buy/sell, trigger stop orders etc, then bring the market right back the way it came.....For this reason, I still do ultimately expect a breach of $352, which will trigger a spate of panic selling down to I guess $330-$340.....

Certainly a big notch needing filled in down there:




But for time being, give or take a retrace back down to lower $370 or upper $360s, I think there is a strong case to be made for a range trade back up to $410. $410, cos the last logical Stop Order for shorts is at $407, and all Bitcoin is doing right now is trying to suck n00b bears n bulls in, and them wipe em out.

Lately the news about bitcoin's scalability problem has been very negative. Meanwhile the simple moving average is pretty much acting as resistance:



Add to this that on larger time frames the MACD is close to suggesting the price to break down and you will understand that I remain bearish.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $381.92)

That would be an extreme downside target in my view, but still a very viable and possible one:

$ 300 seems a realistic target at this point.

I entered at $366, not because of the above statement, but because 70% fkn retracement, right into 61.8% RLZ of entire rally, fkn 12% slide in one fucking day! Surely $357 had to be the bottom. Surely. Surely. SURELY.....and after such a dramatic crash...the bounce here could be pretty substantial...so caution to the wind (and not for the first time on this BTC death slide), I abandoned waiting for nice reassuring market structure went long.......

Obviously....I got my Stop triggered on the Stop Run heading into London Kill Zone, with BTC now above where I got bumped out of my position. Taunting me, pointing and laughing in my face....in summation..I have wiped out about 80% of the profits I made from shorting ($450 - $430), by trying to 'pick the bottom'

Yep...I think 'trade conservatively' is key to playing this bitch of a market.....with that said...'just closed your short from $440!?!?!'. What trade setup are you using that makes it ok to hold a short from $440, right down to $360 in one day? 9/10 times, a bounce would have triggered, obliterating your profits and/or making you hang around in the short trade for another 10 days, waiting on continuation of the trend.

Market can of course do anything it wants....but looking at the charts here, it looks like probably a consolidation period.........and then more downside, basically down to test support at around $320....or who knows....maybe just straight down......'Shooting Star' bottom candle on 4Hr, 12Hr, etc... Don't see many of those. If 'they' send it straight down, then 'they' will shut out the shorters and leave the downside momentum to panic sellers. Would need to go full Kamikaze to short BTC now.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GeazCxCp/

Not yet. But I have to say that, depending on your time frame, buying now at ~365 could turn out to be nice.
I just closed my short from ~440. I trade this quite conservative so I am waiting for more of a buy signal before I enter.

Did you entered a bitcoin position again ?

Yep, absolutely brutal:



(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $367.21)

Phew!

I am glad that instead of listening to my cat's meows, I paid heed to the Morecoin Freeman!

I think we are in for some January-volatility. Leaving the 400's this weekend is a possibility.

(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $423.48)

Sage market commentary from the Morecoin Freeman should never be taken lightly!

As the new move down unfolds it becomes clear that the simple moving average never really turned into support this time:



(BITCOIN PRICE INDEX $437.15)

Morecoin has been whiffing HARD for a couple months now. I'd rather listen to my cat's meows - 1 for yes 2 for no, than follow this asshole now.

Bullshit.

He declared intermediate bottom around 220 USD in April, then next higher floor around 275 USD in July. Sell suggestion in late July wasn't a bad call either (for a mid to short term trade), and he followed it up with a buy recommendation that came early enough to make it a profitable trade.

He didn't seem to have called the current swing correctly (October to now), suggesting to sell halfway into the first leg up, but admitted his mistake. Sell recommendation in early November (for another short/mid term trade) was again correct. Followed up by another accurate call for the intermediate bottom shortly after.

I tend to agree with Mat on this one: very little explanation or spelled out analysis, but pretty accurate over the entire period.

(edit) That said, Morecoin's latest call is a bit dubious. He said he sold on December 10 at $418, but a later post by him suggests his exit was on December 20. Which either means he's retconning his trading history, or that he's not disclosing all trades in between the two post - some of which might have not been profitable.

(aside) The real mystery to me is finding so many uber-bearish posts by some forum old timers in here, like Miz4r's post in April (at ~$220) about the expected bottom between $80 and $160, and how he believes it to be "very unlikely" he'd need to close his short at a loss. Hope he was only playing with a fraction of his coins - likely that's what he did, unless I completely misjudged him from past interactions.

The only thing that is embarassing about it, is how Morecoin Freeman provides next to fuck all in the way of TA, yet his calls bulldoze through all the nonsense spouted by the majority of other clowns on this forum.

Morecoin Freeman is not to be dimissed lightly.....but I know which side of the trade you favour at the moment, and it aint the same as Morecoin Freeman's.....perhaps you are about to learn the same lesson I did a short while ago?

lol