Topic: mtgox claims $5 to $20 million per day incoming funds... - page 2. (Read 7672 times)
I would hope he meant 10,000 USD since he used 3 zero after the decimal point.A 10$ bet would be laughable.
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?
Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Quoted for future bump.
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.
Only $10?
Please dont waste our time.
New envelope calculation! 
April 10th 2013: The bubble has reached its highest peak of 266 USD at a nominal market cap of 2614M USD (2.6 Billion $$$). The ensueing consolidation around 120 USD suggests a "true market cap" of 933M USD during the last peak if we take into account that roughly 33% of all coins in existence are currently inaccessible (lost) or will not move till some time after the next bubble (cold storage or long time savings) [1400M USD (1.4 Billion $$$)*0.66= 933M USD]
Since April 10th 2013 around 20M USD daily have flown into the Bitcoin economy through the exchanges, adding up to 280M USD to date or 30% of the "true market cap" (933M USD) of the bubble's peak.
May 10th 2013: One month later and 600M USD will have grown the Bitcoin economy, raising the level of April 10th' "true market cap" by 64% to 1533M USD. If there would be another bubble rocket by then it would have 64% more fuel to fligh to the sky.
If this day would mark another peak, it would range at 437 USD/BTC (1.64*266USD/BTC=437USD/BTC)
Can we assume that the market cap during a consolidation period after a bubble has burst indicates it's "true market cap"?
Can we also assume that the size of this true market cap indicates the hight of the next bubble?
April 10th 2013: The bubble has reached its highest peak of 266 USD at a nominal market cap of 2614M USD (2.6 Billion $$$). The ensueing consolidation around 120 USD suggests a "true market cap" of 933M USD during the last peak if we take into account that roughly 33% of all coins in existence are currently inaccessible (lost) or will not move till some time after the next bubble (cold storage or long time savings) [1400M USD (1.4 Billion $$$)*0.66= 933M USD]
Since April 10th 2013 around 20M USD daily have flown into the Bitcoin economy through the exchanges, adding up to 280M USD to date or 30% of the "true market cap" (933M USD) of the bubble's peak.
May 10th 2013: One month later and 600M USD will have grown the Bitcoin economy, raising the level of April 10th' "true market cap" by 64% to 1533M USD. If there would be another bubble rocket by then it would have 64% more fuel to fligh to the sky.
If this day would mark another peak, it would range at 437 USD/BTC (1.64*266USD/BTC=437USD/BTC)
Can we assume that the market cap during a consolidation period after a bubble has burst indicates it's "true market cap"?
Can we also assume that the size of this true market cap indicates the hight of the next bubble?
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)
- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)
Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)
Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
You can deposit as much as you want. But impossible to withdraw. :-)
- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)
Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Yes i'm really pissed off with their arbitrary rules, why is it not necessary to verify with legal apostille documents when sending $1 million but is an obligation for withdrawals..- It is easy to deposit $1,000,000 => ( 7,500 BTC )
- if you want to withdraw then limit is 100 BTC/DAY (2 month to withdraw)
Withrdaw USD ?
- wait weeks to get verified
- wait another week until they change limit
- $50k USD is monthly limit (20 months if you want to withdraw $1,000,000) or ask Foreign and Commonwealth Office for APOSTILE and mail them to Gox
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
You forget that the Bitcoin marketcap is not really the "real" marketcap. Many coins are lost or in cold storage. At least half were lost last time i heard. Which means that the marketcap of the movable coins is alot smaller than 1400M USD and that is why the price moves faster than 1% per day.
Good point! I guess "half" is a bit much, but 30% of those coins could probably regarded a save guess on the lost or unmovable amount of coins. That would take the current market cap from 1400M USD down to 933M USD.
People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep.
Relevant XKCD:
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?
Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Are you willing to bet 1 BTC on this? Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?
Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
It does not work like that. If you expect the price to grow 1 % per day, then everybody wants to join that market and they will do so even if they only get .5 or .1 % per day since this is higher than the so-called risk-free interest rate. Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
So the market participants will seek to find the equilibrium faster than you describe since this investment seems to beat most other investments.
And don't listen to Smoothie's analysis. He is obviously clueless about the most basic things in investments.
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.
oh its just gettin started my friend. just cuz we have heard about "the bitcoin" doesnt mean 90% of people have, more like 1%.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.
Nicely summarized
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
In other words, people don't tend to go through the trouble of sending money into MtGox if all they want to do is then pull that money out and buy bubble gum.
Sure, many of them will buy bitcoin. But many will sell them bitcoin too. I think it does not say anything about where the price will go.
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
You forget that the Bitcoin marketcap is not really the "real" marketcap. Many coins are lost or in cold storage. At least half were lost last time i heard. Which means that the marketcap of the movable coins is alot smaller than 1400M USD and that is why the price moves faster than 1% per day.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Amount of deposits in exchanges follows price rise: I agree
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree
Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.
Positive feedback loop of price rise and deposit rise: I agree
Now pls mind the following:
When there is stagnating price or even falling price but still an increase of deposited amounts in exchanges, what does this entail?..
Correct, a powerful correction to the upside! Because all this fiat money only has one way to go once it is in the exchanges: -> ฿TC.
What does it entail?
Nothing about the future price. It's a lagging indicator. It says that there must have been a price rise in the past.
I think you are letting your hopes speak over your ratio.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Like many indicators, money at the exchange is also a lagging indicator.
There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.
Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.
Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.
Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.
Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.
There is little money needed at the exchange to bid up the price. All that is needed is that people on average are bullish. This will make buyers more impatient than sellers, who take their time, and the price goes up.
Inversely, a lot of money at the exchange may not avoid the price going down. All that is needed is that people on average are bearish. This will make sellers more impatient than buyers, who take their time, and the price goes down.
Just like google trends, media coverage, or hashrate, more money at the exchange is a result from the price going up. Not a cause.
Sure there is a strengthening feedback loop, more media coverage, higher hashrate, more money at the exchange pushes up the price even more, but what needs to happen first is the price going up, and then all the rest follows.
Inversely, when the price goes down, there is a weakening feedback loop, less media coverage, less hashrate, and less money will come to the exchange, driving the price even lower.
Kind of - but when there is no money on MtGox then it will go down no matter how bullish people are - because there will be some bears and they'll push it down and vice versa when there is so much money then even if people just try out without really changing moods, but just checking the winds - even that can push the price up and I believe that this is what is just happening.
My theory is not 'kind of', it is either right or wrong.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Because the way the law is written, it's their duty to "know their customer". They know who they are, so they are more then happy to take your money. That's the safe part. Letting anyone withdraw money is when it's important to prove to the government they didn't send a million dollars out into some phoney bank account where the mafia paid some homeless guy to set up a bank account with a fake name in some crazy country. They can't stop that from happening, but they need to show the government the homeless guys ID at leat.
Thank you for explaining this.
Man, the fact that that money's not going out means people are thinking about putting it back in.
I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!
This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.
I think we're on the verge of another bubble... already!
This time I'm betting we'll be going up, up, up, without the nasty crash of last time.
The fact that there is so little delay between those bubbles makes me think that this time we will have higher highs and probably higher lows then during the last bubble but not that much difference in between. Maybe we'll top out at 350$/BTC or so but we wont go to 1000$ straight away because not much has changed during the last bubble. Infrastructure still has to be built, money has to flow in, people have to wrap their heads around it before they invest.
After the coming bubble's burst we shoud be able to see the big underlying trend and trend channel that all the coming bubbles will follow for some time.
I envision something like that:
its going to be a wild ride!
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