Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
Outflows: $300k to $1 million / day
That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.
Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.
Thoughts?
You're not factoring at all the off-exchange purchases, be them through person-to-person interactions (quite sizeable at times, if rpetilia is to be believed) or Tradehill dark pools. There could be a lot more fiat flowing into the ecosystem.
Thats true, I just sticked to what we "know" and we can see. There is a market off the exchanges but no numbers have been verified so its everybodies guess what size this market has and whether more money enters or leaves the Bitcoin economy through it. I think the off exchanges market is about 1/10th of the volume size, the exchanges cover, so it wouldnt have too much of an influence on the outcome of my calculation, but again thats just ball park guessing.
