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Topic: mtgox claims $5 to $20 million per day incoming funds... (Read 7672 times)

sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen


The only reason why so much money came in, and so less out is:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mtgox-withdrawal-delays-180134
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mtgox-withdrawal-bank-account-still-validating-168843
(...)
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Okay bears now is your chance to be creative on how $5 to $20 million incoming cash per day into bitcoin will send the price lower.....LAWL  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
Easy - "MtGox is lying"
 Cool Cool Cool

MagicTux looks at all that money and decides to take the Pattaya option?
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol

That's just bubble talk.

sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen

You seem to confuse money flowing into MtGox with bitcoin economy.  Piling money on MtGOx does nothing.  If each day 20 million enters and 1 million leaves, after 100 days you will have $1.9 billion on MtGox.  Why?

There are only two things that can happen to that money:
-it can be withdrawn
-it can be lost to transaction fees

Notice that I did not put "it can enter the bitcoin economy" on that list, because if somebody buys $20 million of bitcoins, somebody sold $20 million (ok $20 minus 1% fee) bitcoins, and the amount of money on MtGox stays the same.

So, no, this $20 in $1 out situation on MtGox can not last for very long.  Why would it?



legendary
Activity: 2142
Merit: 1010
Newbie
11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol

Smoothie on trolling spree Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen

11,000,000 BTC

VS.

1,500,000,000,000,000 USD (including derivatives)


yeah I think bitcoin is going to go up lol
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
Unless you think having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.

1. Plenty of money is being minted to sustain this.

2. Not going to happen
sr. member
Activity: 407
Merit: 250
I remember some days ago a bear said that for the price to hold 100$ AND if all the miners sell their coins we need 360K USD of incoming funds a day. He meant that it was unsustainable. If there is 20 MILLIONS USD of incoming funds everyday you do the math yourself...

I would predict that after a period of this positive Gox imbalance, there will be a period of negative flow.  Unless you thing having money flowing into MtGox, and no money flowing out is somehow sustainable.

We'll see how it goes when there is 20 million going out, and 1 million going in.


hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858

Not the side of the bet I want to take.

That's stupid, price will go below 115. The only interesting question is "when?"

rpietila is actually setting up a more complicated position than a bet that the price will never go below $115. Also, if you can prove that the price will at some point go below $115 then the market should immanentize this and cause the price per coin to be at or below $115 right now.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858

That's stupid, price will go below 115. The only interesting question is "when?"
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 286
Neptune, Scalable Privacy
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
In another thread, rpietila seemed willing to make a bet that the price would not go below 115 $.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1919858
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
I've actually made an offer of 10.000$ for less than 100$ @3month, see my posting history.

I don't know what to look for, but I feel like I would take the bet if I saw it. Could you PM me a link?
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
I am willing to believe Gox on these figures, I posted this in a different thread, but it applies here too: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1891053

There are way more people who want in than want out, now we know just how wide the gap is.

As an aside, if we take the net money flow reported here at face value, (an average of 11.85 million per day) and distributed it across all Bitcoins currently in existence the price would rise by about $1 per day. If we distributed it across every Bitcoin currently for sale in Gox's orderbook (98.9k according to bitcoinity's wall chart) then the price would rise by $120 per day.  
member
Activity: 224
Merit: 10
I remember some days ago a bear said that for the price to hold 100$ AND if all the miners sell their coins we need 360K USD of incoming funds a day. He meant that it was unsustainable. If there is 20 MILLIONS USD of incoming funds everyday you do the math yourself...
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1029
The funds will subside when the hype runs out.


oh its just gettin started my friend. just cuz we have heard about "the bitcoin" doesnt mean 90% of people have, more like 1%.

I agree...further even if people have heard of it only a fraction will buy in at this stage
full member
Activity: 144
Merit: 100
Inflows: Between $5 million and $20 million / day

Outflows:
$300k to $1 million / day

That would mean that on average around 15M USD flow into MtGox per day,probably less.
If we discount the rougly 700k USD flowing out we are still at around a 14M USD surplus.

Given that MtGox EUR and USD markets account for around 70 % of the volume on all exchanges, that makes the total money flowing in to the Bitcoin economy roughly 20M USD/day.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

At a current market cap of 1400M USD that increases the total market capitalization around 1%/day. Price has been closely related to the market cap in the past, so we can assume that by this 1% increase of market cap a 1% increase in price is justified.
http://blockchain.info/de/charts/market-cap?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

What we have seen over the past 7 days, since the 50USD bottom, is a 23% increase per day. Lets assume we have found the new equilibrium at around 120 USD now, we could expect a 1% price increase per day to be backed and thus justified by the growth in market cap. Anything above that would be unsustainable and deemed to correct itself.

Thoughts?
(emphasis added is mine)

Interesting, especially considering the post-crash consolidated market cap you introduce in a later post - however, I think this all relies on what price is chosen for "equilibrium," and that cannot be defined outside of the current market derived price.

No matter how we spin it, the price of bitcoin currently represents a storm of emotion, speculation, hype, and lacking infrastructure. There is no fair way to determine the "true" value of a bitcoin, or any good, outside of a market. And the market at this time suffers from so many exterior extremes, that the price at any one moment can not reasonably be taken as a stable equilibrium.

Just my take on the situation. I hope you continue to expand this analysis!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Gox made more during the high volume days than during the low volume days, the last week when the crash was in full force should be their highest grossing week ever, whether you calculate by total bitcoin/fiat volume. So using your own logic, Gox should try to create as many crashes as possible, rather than pleading people to calm down.

Besides, even if Gox's plan were to accumulate as many bitcoins as possible, and betting on its rise in exchange rate, the only place to cash out such a huge amount of bitcoins would be their own exchange. So if I were Mark, the best strategy seems to be just charging fees in dollars so they make money regardless of the price movement.

Not to say that you have no fact at all to back up your accusation.

Please educate yourself before you talk.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Quoted for future bump.

legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1029
There must be a lot of Fiat money then just sat in Gox accounts not being traded into bitcoins
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
I see no reason for Mark to make this up. No sir, no reason at all. It's not like in the last two weeks mtgox made more money than in it's entire history. It's not like rapid appreciation and volatility is making him richer than Satoshi Nakamoto. Cmmon guys, is there was really a bubble that burst, would he be lying us ?

Let's not forget about the people trapped in MtGox waiting to be verified. Another one of mark's bedtime stories. People, you are grasping at straws and you are sheep. Regardless of this here dead cat and "return to normal", the bubble is done and price will succumb to less than 50$ in less then 3 months.

Quoted for future bump.
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