Topic: MY DAILY BITCOIN SPECULATIONS AND VIEWS (Read 890 times)

Bitcoin was deceptive yesterday, it bought back due to the weakness of the USDX and closed positive for the day with a bullish pin bar on the 1D chart. At this point, I'm neutral on the market, it could go either side today as it moves from peak to bottom and from the bottom to peak in the last two days. More surprises could be seen, yet it is good to know that more barriers are at the upper ends at 19930.46 and 20386.48 (Wednesday high). The market might be unattractive to buyers below this level, which might force it down to at least 18142.00. While a break above them will confirm a bullish trend that might hit the current 1D trendline resistance at 21003.75.

Nonetheless, the MACD and Stochastic oscillator remains bearish in signals.

I must say that Bitcoin disappointed me yesterday, the long-awaited 19930.46 was broken only for it to slip back below it to cause a false breakout. This is not unusual in the market, nevertheless, has dropped it back to a bearish trend.

On the daily chart below, the price action is now negative and the price of the market is below the important 19930.46 which was somewhat defensive yesterday as the market succumbed lower after breaking it. Also, the stochastic oscillator has returned bearish by pointing lower and the MACD remains negative. These conditions have validated the full bearish trend for the market today and I expect to see 18142 and 17625.00 soon.

Bitcoin was hesitant to sell yesterday despite the negative price action seen on the 1D, it only bottomed at 18630.00 and rose to close positive for the day. This is a welcome development for the buyers and my bias has shifted to bullish on the market. The market will continue to buy today as the price action on the daily chart is now positive and the stochastic oscillator is pointing higher in readiness for more buying. It has breached the resistance at 19930.46, it should target the 1D trendline resistance at 21239.58. A break above the level will confirm a more determined bullish trend.



Also, the market is totally bullish on the 4H chart with regard to my trading system. The stochastic oscillator is bullish, while the MACD is almost completely bullish as its histogram is bullish, so nothing serious can stop Bitcoin from buying today. Nevertheless, it has breached above a 4H trendline resistance at 19350.78 with strong bullish momentum, it would probably hit 22791.00 in this bullish phase.

I was right yesterday by suggesting a sluggish and indecisive market movement just like what happened on Saturday. But today's situation is different, I'm bearish on the market today though the downside movements might be limited. The sellers should be in control as Bitcoin holds below 19930.46 (only chance of the buyers) and still has negative price action below the level on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD is negative and stochastic oscillator neutral.

Summarily, nothing is against the bearish movements of the market today, which is a good reason for the sellers to be in control.

I explained the overall condition of the market in my last post and I suggested the reasons for them, I wouldn't want to repeat myself. What baffles me most in your response is the fact that you indicated the 1D chart as bullish, that is totally wrong. Judging from the 1D chart below, you could clearly see that the present trend/pattern of the market and the overall trend/pattern started on the 1st of June is bearish.

What you are referring to is a mere "emerging market" that is just forming, and might or mightn't become a trend eventually.

Neev mind this, but just my opinion.

The daily chart is not indicating bearish direction, even it is indicating bullish direction of bitcoin getting to $20000 again, which could be tomorrow. But this may not be certain and bear market can be what might occur, but indicating $17500 to likely be the support. About this, I prefer to go for bull side. Daily speculation this time may be wrong to go for more in bearish direction. I prefer for the market to dump little and I open the long position instead because bitcoin has fallen in price significantly. But that does not make you wrong. Although, I still believe that both bulls and bears would likely still be favoured in this present market. But, later, in long term like weeks to months, bulls would be favoured than the bears. We should always take into account the possible little bull markets that may result before the next big bull market.

On the monthly chart, the direction is not certain, but it is more indicating the bull direction for me. Just that to predict that can be more difficult because slight movement in the price in months can be of low fall or rise in candle candle stick and yet big increase or drop in price. But if someone can open a position that have liquidation at $10000, it is worth it. But the best is that 1BTC is 1BTC, it is monthly chart, just buy. If the price decrease, do not think about it, but have fun and know that bitcoin bulls would succeed as a result of the significant bear market that have occured. What follows the very sunny ☀️ time should be the rain 🌧️. What would follow the bear 🐻 market is the bull 🐂 market.

About the weekly chart, I have stopped using it like some weeks ago when I knew it was only (and yet still indicating) massively bear market, I hope other people should neglect it because it is not accurate at all. People should think more towards the bullish side, but the weekly chart is indicating massive bearish direction which would not likely going to happen. It indicated that bitcoin would likely drop to at least to $12500 some weeks ago but it did not happen. When bitcoin resisted $18000, the price has been going up, when I checked it today, it has moved from $12500 to $14900 today. I am expecting it to be moving up.

I don't like to be too rigid about my dispositions regarding the market because anything can happen at the slightest chance. This is why I like to do daily speculations to guide me on what Bitcoin would do daily and this thread testifies to that. As much as I would advise anyone to be waiting for further development for proper guidance, the trend of Bitcoin remains bearish in both long-term and short-term bias. The weekly and monthly charts are extremely bearish in trend, while the daily chart still holds an overall bearish outlook.

Sellers could only be threatened if 19930.46 is broken upward, that is only when I can take the short-term buyers seriously. What is helping Bitcoin at the current levels is that its price is already low, sellers are exercising caution, while buyers are increasing at lower levels daily.

This is just a constraint toward smooth selling but doesn't imply a bullish trend for the market.

All I believe now is that any price below $18000 would be a buying price for bitcoin and the price would rise again after getting to that price. The lowest bitcoin price this year, ever since last all-time-high was around $17500. I believe bitcoin can not get to this price before it would increase back again to around $20000 or above. I am not using any much analyses than the past bitcoin bull and bear periods in every four years after halving which I see would likely be what would happen again this time period. This is just what I analyzed based on that, I can be wrong, but anyone holding bitcoin as of now in long term are not making any wrong decision.

I decided to quote yesterday's speculation and image since nothing much has changed since then as expected. It will take the market a sustainable breakout from 19930.46 (for buyers to be in control) and 18142.00 (for sellers to be in control) before a definitive trading direction could unveil.

Therefore, it is unwise to call a direction today as the market will be indecisive and sluggish in movements just like it performed yesterday. Both scalpers/shortest-term buyers and sellers could continue to do so, but cautiously, as nothing different from yesterday's activities is expected today.

Bitcoin tried to buy yesterday but later failed and satisfied the bearish trend condition of the two specified conditions of the day, thereby hitting the low of 18531.42. It has gained the control of the buyers, but this might still be limited as the volatility of the market is low. It is waiting for a further breakout to speed up its movement.

The MACD is still negative, it will limit the power of the buyers despite having a bullish candle today. While the stochastic oscillator is almost indecisive yet looks more bullish. These are conflicting trading signals that will make the market moves up and down without a tangible breakthrough on either side until further notice.

Nonetheless, I favour the bearish view more than the bullish view today unless the market could breach above 19930.46.

Bitcoin did not continue the expected fall yesterday, though it sold and reached the daily bottom of 18142.00 before rebounding higher to close at 19244.73. This has resulted in a bullish pin bar on the daily chart which is a good reason to suspect a bullish trend today. Also, I had established another immediate barrier on the daily chart at 19930.46, this is lower than the former barrier of 20483.67, and a break above it will confirm that the buyers are in control for the target of the 1D trendline resistance now at 21607.85.



The 4H chart further reveals some good development that might help shape the market today. Bitcoin has tried better in moving higher and is now testing the 4H chart trendline. The successful break of the level higher at 19409.78 will keep the buyers in control today. But if the level fails to break and negative price action is formed below it, then the selling of the market might resume.

My first target of 18232.56 was hit today after the mild drama on Bitcoin since late yesterday. The market moved up to hit the peak of 19923.45 before later selling to today's bottom at 18142.00 and still looks bearish so far.

I remain bearish on the market below 20483.67 as the price action on the daily chart is bearish. The market might be making efforts to rise, but this is an opportunity to even sell it more as it is under pressure. The anticipation of the US interest rate decision and the other FOMC meeting minutes caused the rise witnessed yesterday, but the outcome of the news favours the sellers, which makes it later sell. Inflation is still a huge problem for the world, which is not good news for Bitcoin as the US continues to raise their Federal Funds Rate.

The MACD remains negative and the stochastic oscillator has had a bearish cross on the daily chart. This indicates a continued bearish trend for the market in the view to reset the low of June at 17625.00.

Bitcoin sold as expected yesterday, the market is still on the downtrend but the volatility is limited. The moving upwards of the stochastic oscillator might be largely responsible for the low volatility for the market to readjust favourably before the volatility will increase

Nonetheless, I remain bearish on the market today, my two resistance levels of 20483.67 and the current daily chart trendline at 21818.75 have not been threatened by the market so far. This shows the extent to which the sellers are still in control. Only a breach above 20483.67 will make me take the buyers serious this week.

The MACD remains negative, just like the price action on the daily chart. The levels in sight as the market sells are at 18232.56 and 17615.00.

Bitcoin sold sharply yesterday before gaining some bullish upthrusts, yet it closed negative as the high and low of the day are 19723.02 and 18232.56 respectively. I, therefore, remain bearish on this market despite the bullish movement later experienced yesterday.

The movement was due to the falling of the USD index which I believe is temporary. Furthermore, I remain firm with my weekend statement that "I will not take the buyers serious if the market holds below the resistance at 20482.67. This is especially as the price action of today is negative and the MACD supports the view too.

It's only the stochastic oscillator that is not in favour of the bearish trend but has moved away from the oversold region, which might be an advantage to the sellers later today and this week.

I was right to declare a mere bullish corrective phase for Bitcoin yesterday, it has now resumed its main bearish trend as expected. It was clear to me yesterday that the buyers were only joking if they could not overcome the resistance at 20482.67. Now, the market has formed a valid negative price action on the daily chart below the level, which is responsible for the sharp fall witnessed today.

The bias is now extremely bearish with the low of June at 17625 becoming more feasible than ever. The stochastic oscillator is oversold but it's making attempts to have a bearish cross inside the oversold region. This signifies an extreme bearish condition, while the negativity of the MACD would increase the pressure on the market today and this week.

I was right to be cautious yesterday as the stochastic oscillator on the daily chart is oversold. The buyers slightly gained control yesterday and might still be in control today since the market needs to adjust higher before continuing its bearish movement. However, I will not take the buyers serious today and the rest of this week if the market is still holding below 20483.67 as anything could happen below the level which could make the market continue its main bearish trend.

In plain terms, I see the current bullish movements as a mere correction of the selling that started last week Tuesday. But if it breaks the daily chart trendline resistance at 22207.53 higher, then a new phase of a bullish trend will unveil. This is what I don't see feasible for now as the MACD remains negative.

Yesterday was still bearish for Bitcoin as it ended negative despite its attempt to move back upward. I remain bearish on the market today, it needs to break some technical levels upward before my bias could change on it. And the first of these technical levels is at 20483.64, which is the high of Thursday. Failure to break it will make the asset risk further fall over time and will resume its bearish trend eventually. But if the level breaks upwards, it will further reach the daily chart trendline resistance at 22207.53, and possibly higher prices above it.

Nevertheless, the stochastic oscillator is oversold (threat to sellers) on the daily chart, this might cause a sluggish movement today as the market finds its way to readjust back to a safe zone. But the MACD is firmly bearish and might gain the attention of the sellers with time.

Yesterday's market movement indicates that Bitcoin is still under pressure and this might tarry till next week. The MACD is negative as the market tries to find its path today, and will likely continue to fall regardless of the bullish threat of the day.

In summary, the three important trendline levels of yesterday are still valid, but at different prices now. The levels to watch have shifted to 21306.65, 20311.67 and 19856.76. Holding below 21306.65 will preserve the overall bearish outlook of the market today, though I can't rule out the breach above 19856.76.

Still, I expect the market to hold below 20311.67 throughout today. Nonetheless, holding below 19856.76 is a strong assurance of a bearish trend continuation.

Bitcoin performed as expected yesterday, its bullish correction was limited and it maintained the bearish trend that has made it hit the day's bottom of 19617.62. The market is making attempt to move higher, which is normal for it to take a slight breath before continuing the bearish trend. This might end when the stochastic oscillator on the 4H chart reaches a reasonable level for the market to be better eased before resuming the selling.

I prefer not to call a direction today because of the many obstacles to overcome by the market. Although the trend is still bearish, there might be some indecisive movements today. The important trendline levels to watch are at 20951.67, 20141.62 and 20658.65, which is close to the low of yesterday.

The buyers would gain a slight control above 20141.62, yet I expect the market to be limited below 20951.67 throughout today. Below 20141.62 will give the sellers control but needs breakout below 20658.65 and 19617.62 to resume the selling. The MACD remains negative in favour of the sellers.





 

Bitcoin could not proceed higher yesterday after peaking at 22791.00, it then plummeted lower to break the support level mentioned yesterday at 22054.50. It dived afterwards and has had a bearish view ever since having broken another trendline support at 20666. Yesterday's inflation news in the US caused the fall, and I alerted my fellow BTT member before the news on a thread that could be found here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/alert-important-us-inflation-news-is-due-today-5413398

On the 4H chart, the market is a little bit messy, it is bearish, but the MACD is now neutral and the stochastic oscillator is oversold. These might cause conflicts of interest today, which makes me suggest a bullish correction before the market continues selling. Though the correction might/mightn't happen since yesterday's news might have a long-term impact on Bitcoin.



However, the daily chart is clearer about what happened. The trendline on the chart proved to be strong and rejected the price of the market lower from 22606.98 as it closed below the level. Therefore, my bias has shifted to bearish trend on Bitcoin today and till further notice. The market will move lower to retest the low of August at 18510.77, while a break of it will make the market proceed lower towards the low of June at 17625.00.

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Well said my friend, I do my best to analyze the market, give possible conditions and still watch out for any adverse development afterwards. That is why you might see me favouring a bullish trend today but a bearish trend tomorrow. Traders should be dynamic.

What I can say is that there are a lot of trading strategies, and we are free to use anyone that works for us. I'm only keeping my analysis here simple to avoid complications. I still do some internal diggings that I don't show here, but my final resolves are what my daily speculations posted portray.

I know many trading strategies, but imagine seeing trendline, MA (50, 100 & 200), Fibonacci tools, wave theory and many more on the same chart, won't they cause much conflict of interest? This makes me come to the conclusion of the best support and resistance levels for my readers so that they will not make mistakes because of me.

Taking yesterday as a case study, the determining level was 22054.50, holding above it was a go for buyers, but going below it was a go for the sellers. My trading conditions were clear enough and worked perfectly if one follows them accurately.

Also, traders tend to make mistakes if they believe that only certain principles apply to trading, many principles do apply, only that some traders might be blind to them. As a matter of fact, many approaches must be viewed critically before going for the one that is best, which is what I am doing here. In other words, I always do some internal filtering that might not be obvious to many.