Topic: MY DAILY BITCOIN SPECULATIONS AND VIEWS - page 2. (Read 870 times)

Personally I think the local volume point of control where the 200 MA is priced on the 4hr at $21.5K is likely to act as support level, as there is a nice confluence of support here with long-term moving average and volume.

This is where price was initially rejected from as it acted as resistance, so therefore is now likely to further confirm it as support. I otherwise wouldn't put too much faith in an upwards sloping trend-line that only has two touch-points, as these are nothing more than a coincidence without three touch-points (a confirmed pattern). This would be the same trap as before with the resistance trend-line that was repeatedly broken without price moving to the upside. The fact that after the third time it broke through this trend-line that was repeatedly shifting appears to be more coincidence than cause and effect.

It will be interesting to see if price can hold the 50 Day MA at $22K as well as bullish territory on the RSI, as the latter hasn't been achieved since March, so could easily send price up another 8% to $24K resistance trend-line and distribution level in order to reach overbought territory. Given it's been 6 months since Bitcoin has been overbought on the Daily time-frame, many of us have forgotten that this is possible, even within bear markets. The end of the week will otherwise mark 3 months since the $17.5K low which will further given me February 2019 vibes of being in the second part of confirming and forming a macro low.

22k BTC price is a great relief to speculators and investors at this moment where Bitcoin has noised dive below 20k for several weeks so arriving at a 22k+ price is something to emphasize before taking any decision and I believe what op has said that this recent Bitcoin chart movement should be properly analyzed before any decision is taken and for traders I advice opening more buying positions for Bitcoin and holding stablecoins.

The market conditions right now require close observation!

Bitcoin bought as expected yesterday, the bullish steam is slowing down gradually as the last five candlesticks on the 4H chart are indecisive. This calls for more observations on what the market might do today before taking decisions. Nonetheless, the last candlestick ended in a bullish pin bar, which is a sign of the bullish continuation towards might the expected target of 24440.42. And the trendline still favours a bullish trend above 20624.87, just as the MACD indicator remains positive.

But if the pin bar could not help the market to launch higher than 22469.23, then the sellers might be gaining control bit by bit. While a break of the low of today at 22054.50 will slip the market to a minor bearish trend, which I will only treat as a mere correction of the recent bullish movements.

I continue to favour the bullish trend of Bitcoin, the market eventually hit my target at 21825.97 today and has peaked at 22362.58 so far. More bullish impacts are to be felt today and this week as more buyers are being attracted to the market. I will ever favour this bullish trend provided it holds above the current trendline support at 20289.87 and the MACD is positive on the 4H chart.

The next target is at 24440.42. This level is not yet visible on the 4H chart but it is there and I mentioned it some time ago. It might be revealed today if more bullish impacts are witnessed.

Bitcoin overcame the adverse price action on the 4H chart shown yesterday after observing a slight correction to the low of 21111.13. It has progressed on the bullish path and remains above its current trendline support at 19867.11. I am bullish above that level today, the market almost hit my target at 21825.97 as it peaked at 21804.30 and has the tendency to rise further.

It has however formed a positive price action on the chart, which will help in buying further as the stochastic oscillator points higher in readiness for more buying and the MACD is positive.

The buyers took control of the market as expected yesterday and Bitcoin hit the peak of 21589.33 so far. The level is just a few points away from the expected target of 21825.97 which might still be hit after some corrections.

On the 4H chart, good development with MACD has occurred as the indicator is now completely bullish. But the price action is still negative and the stochastic oscillator is already overbought. These suggest some degree of correction today, but it should be limited above the current trendline support at 19483.87. I remain bullish above the level until further notice.

Btc did a great trend again today, it was able to hit the price of $21k again after the sudden dump and I think this is another bullish trend that will retest the resistance level again and once successful, we might see the real bull trend now. Indicators are also telling the same thing, it's good that we are able to break another resistance, now we are just waiting for another confirmation. BTC is doing great, along with the other good coins with their good updates, let's see if that can affect Bitcoin and if that trend will continue until the end of the month.

I carefully followed the behaviour of the market yesterday, Bitcoin was hesitant to take a side throughout the day but has had a successful bullish breakout above the 4H trendline today. The breakout has confirmed a bullish trend for it as I indicated yesterday.

My bias today is bullish as long as the market remains above the recent trendline level at 19661.76. The interpretation of the MACD status is neutral but its powerful histogram has had a bullish confirmation. This buttress my point of a bullish day and the buyers might be in control until a target of 21925.97 is reached as I also indicated yesterday.

Noted and thanks for the observation! I carefully watch the market with many timeframes developments even if I don't show them in my daily speculations here. Aside from that, there are other additional working strategies that guide me against any adverse developments in the market. And the market hardly fails me when all my strategies align with the same decisions, they aren't at the moment. For now, patience is needed as sluggish/indecisive movements might cause bad decisions if care is not taken.

Just like the MACD by the looks of it, don't be caught out by the bullish divergence on the 4hr chart. If it continues to play out, it'll provide a relief rally at minimum to re-test resistance levels, if it can clear 60.


When everyone is bearish, and all time-frames look bearish, sometimes these divergence signals are the only warning signs provided that in fact the bear trend remains fragile. Just my two satoshis right now....

I was right to have suspected a retracement yesterday, but the retracement has slipped into what looks like a reversal now. This calls for a strict watch of the market today before taking a position. Bitcoin might want to start a ranging pattern, time will tell as the guidance of the 4H and daily chart are crucial at this time.

On the 4H chart, the MACD is negative and the stochastic oscillator has reached the overbought regions. These might limit the power of the buyers today and send the market back to a lower price for a retest of the weekly low of 18510.77. While a further break of it will target 17625.00 (low of June). However, in case the Bulls gains more power and were able to launch a successful attack on the trendline resistance at 19772.77, then a higher level of 21825.97 would be unveiled.



Also, the daily chart has some interesting outlooks that traders should be careful with. The stochastic oscillator has had a bullish cross, this is a warning to potential sellers. And note that this would be aggravated if today's candlestick is positive.

My verdict: The market might slip into a ranging pattern this week. This means that it might only have limited bullish power today before selling. But if it breaches above 19772.77, it has confirmed a buy signal.

Technically, we didn't leave the bear trend even at the price of $20k, now the price confirms it and it's good to wait for a little more dump because it's more possible now to happen. $16k might be the real bottom as expected by many, or the price can still go down depends on the trend of Bitcoin. Just continue to monitor the market, playing short right now might be a good strategy but of course you still need to set up your position to avoid any liquidation. TAYOR!

Sorry, I just saw your post today. One thing you should know is that the market is at times unpredictable and highly indecisive in movements, especially in the short-term outlook. All trading strategies have their fair share of that indecision too as they react to bad market conditions. That was what happened, breakout strategy could have false-breakout as many times as possible if the market is indecisive

The reason for the last is the directionless movements seen in the past 9 days before yesterday caused by the sideways movements of the market. You can see I switched to the daily chart even before reading your post to see the broader outlook and to avoid being caught in the web of markets' indecisiveness.

I was right to be careful yesterday, Bitcoin initially rose but topped at 20179.52 before diving down to break away from its sideways lower levels and bottoming at 18637.51 for the day. This is a bearish trend confirmed by principles, and it shows that the market might not have bottomed yet for the year as it has renewed the hope of journeying down to the low of June at 17625.00

The price action is negative on the daily chart, and so is the MACD indicator. The stochastic oscillator is also pointing lower in readiness for more bearish movements today.

However, careful dealing is advised as well in case the market wants to observe a minor retracement before proceeding with the selling.

Extreme caution is advised in trading Bitcoin as it repeated its indecisive movement yesterday, it bought and sold many times. This is misleading, and it might continue with these sideways and ranging movements until strong activities that could be caused by news or liquidity happens. Until then, I am neutral on the market, the daily chart explains how indecisive the market is. I will wait for further guidance today before calling for a direction tomorrow.

I've been keeping a close eye on your thread after the failed break-out from trend-line resistance. Personally I wasn't very convinced by it as someone who prefers trend-lines to be connected by candle closes as opposed to candle wicks, or at least as many touches as possible without breaking candle bodies. In that respect, I saw this failed break-out as opposed to what you were referencing, for what that's worth.

Anyway, I think we are both on the same page for how the current resistance trend-line looks:

Bitcoin refused to sell yesterday but rose after some initial selling efforts to confirm its continued sideways movements which are not in the interest of both the buyers and sellers. It topped and bottomed at 19956.49 and 19583.00 respectively. This is a tight difference, I hope a tangible breakout from its long-lasting sideways levels will happen soon for the market to have a definite direction.

However, I am still bearish today judging by the guide of the 4H chart wherein the market is negative with the MACD and Stochastic oscillator. The price action is also bearish as the market holds below the trendline resistance at 19900.67. Staying below the level will continue to put pressure on Bitcoin today.

But a break above it might cause a bullish spike that might reach 21825.97.

Bitcoin has been moving in a tight range but could not break below the extended 4H chart trendline. Nonetheless, trading today needs caution as the price action on the chart is negative, just as the MACD is still negative. This makes me conclude that the sellers would be controlled today, but the volatility might be low.



Also on the daily chart, the price action is bearish as the market creates a low daily candle for the past 8 days, which suggests that the market has slipped into its sideways movement again.

Irrespective of that, the bias is bearish on the daily chart today as the trendline, price action, MACD and Stochastic oscillator on the chart confirm it. Lower prices should be touched today.

Yesterday was indecisive as Bitcoin moved up a little and hit the high of the day at 20440.00 but could not proceed further towards my first target at 21825.97.

I am neutral with the direction of the market for now as the whole 4H chart representation is mixed. The market is still above the current trendline support at 19691.32, but with negative price action. While the MACD is also negative and the Stochastic oscillator has neared the oversold region despite being bearish.

These conditions are tricky, and a break below 19691.32 today will slip the market to a bearish trend. Yet, if the price action could turn positive above 19691.32, buyers would take control today.

Bitcoin was pressured yesterday until it bottomed at 19566.00 where it rebounded and has been at higher levels till now.

On the 4H chart, the market has made a successful break above the trendline resistance at 19985.65, and by principle, it would remain on the bullish path unless the current trendline support at 19933.56 is broken lower. This indicates that I prefer a bullish trend today, but caution is still needed because the price action on the 4H chart is neutral as the MACD is negative.

This might cause tussles between the buyers and the sellers. Yet, if positive price action is formed above the trendline support at 19933.56, then the buyers would take control today and the market will aim for a target of at least 21825.97.