Topic: MY DAILY BITCOIN SPECULATIONS AND VIEWS - page 3. (Read 890 times)

Bitcoin sold yesterday after hitting the 4H trendline but could not break the level higher and formed a negative price action below the level. This resulted in the market selling, but the volatility was low as it bottomed at $19843.76.

The market is still under pressure today, at least mildly, and will continue selling provided the negative price action could be maintained below the current 4H chart trendline resistance at $20219.07. However, the buyers might take control if the trendline level is broken upwards. Nonetheless, the MACD is negative and the Stochastic oscillator remains bearish in signal and not oversold, which still suggests a bearish trend today.

The second condition of my trading insight worked yesterday where Bitcoin was hesitant to buy further below 20751.65 thereby forming a negative price action below the level. This validated a bearish trend and the market sold to the bottom of 19540.00, therefore I congratulate those who followed my insight.

Today, the market development is different as positive price action is on the 4H chart, the buyers have done great joy after the low of yesterday was hit. The determining trendline level has now slipped to 20507.84, a break above it would confirm a bullish trend today which might eventually hit the resistance at 21825.97.

Failure to do that, and the market forming a negative price action below the level like yesterday would result in a fall.

My bullish suspicion of yesterday worked as the market moved higher and has hit a high of 20542.07 ever since then. The bias of the market today is still slightly bullish, it might proceed higher to hit the determining trendline resistance at 20751.65 after a minor correction lower. The condition might then help the buyers to gain full control after breaking the level to afterwards aim for a target of 21825.91 and 20444.42 in extension.

In another view, if the market is hesitant to break 20751.65 and forms a negative price action below it on the 4H chart, it might then slip back to the bearish trend to continue its journey towards 17625.00 (June low). The stochastic oscillator is almost overbought as well.

Welcome to a new business day, Bitcoin was bearish last week and the overall outlook of the market remains bearish still but might correct higher to take more breath. It managed to break a minor support level at 19893.87 yesterday which made it sell towards today's low of 19520. I hope this would be the bottom of today as the bulls are trying to take control today.

There is bullish price action on the 4H chart which will be a threat to the continuation of the selling today, I will, however, be cautious to sell the market unless its price action returns bearish. Furthermore, the major support level remains at 17626.00 as I have always indicated but there might be a minor correction toward the trendline resistance at 21009.64. It does not matter if the market hits this level or not, what matters is to watch out for a bearish price action below it before resuming the selling of the market.

But in case the level breaks higher, it might be a setback for the bearish trend as a short-term reversal might happen.

No doubt, Bitcoin is in a bearish trend as the weekly and daily charts confirm it. Yet, we should be wary of the oversold condition on the lower charts, this made me move down to the 4H chart today for a closer look.

On the 4H chart, the market has been making efforts to take a breath higher from the selloff seen in the past two days, it might want to retrace more today before resuming its bearish movements which I will confirm when happens. I expect the retracement to halt at or below the trendline support at 21280.65 and bring about the fall resumption that might make it continue its bearish journey towards 17625.00. A break of that level would mix the outlook of the market.

This is the highly possible scenario as the MACD on the on the 4H, 1D and 1W charts are all negative.

Congratulations to those who read my speculation and perhaps use it in their trading plans yesterday. Bitcoin eventually find a path on the bearish trend which was my preferred bias for the day. My analysis of yesterday remains valid today but everyone should be careful of the oversold condition on the lower charts. The market might continue selling or wants to first retrace higher before continuing the selling, so be careful. The major supports in sight are at 18910.72 and 17625.00, which is the low of June 2022.

What happened yesterday shows that Bitcoin is still unwilling to take sides as the battle of short-term supremacy continues between the buyers and the sellers. A false breakout occurred after it breached 21677.65 higher but could not sustain the buying as it topped at 21816.73 before retreating lower till now. Presently, the market is battling to break below the current trendline support on the 4H chart which is lower than yesterday's level at 21344.89. A 4H candle close below it will add bearish credence to what the market would do today.



My preference has however shifted to the daily chart which gives a better insight into what the market might do today. The market is still moving in a tight bound on the chart, so caution is needed. Yesterday's market ended negative and created a Doji on the daily chart. This suggests a negative bias today as a reversal is possible within the sideways movement still seen with the last 7 candlesticks formed on the chart.

Regardless of that, the price action of the last two candlesticks is bearish, which makes me believe that Bitcoin might sell today. But this is provided it stays below 21690.67 (today's opening price) and breaks below 21310.16 (yesterday's low). The Stochastic oscillator is not a problem anymore, it is not oversold again just as MACD continues to be negative in favour of this bearish expectation.

I think it's more of the Fed decision last week that really affected the price not just crypto but I think stocks too, maybe @adaseb can confirmed this as I know he followed stocks movement or at least it's correlation with bitcoin, correct me if I'm wrong.

So it the highest we got so far is $25k, but not sustainable, and then the bearish sentiments starts with the Fed announcement. We will have to see that $35k-$40k, we just have 4 months to accomplishment that huge jump with how the outlook of the market right now.

Fed decision and ethereum merger will have a short time effect on the price of Bitcoin but since that is an external factor their impact will be minimal and Bitcoin will uptrend from that situation in a short time, but also we must settle for one fact that the majority of the year 2022 have been supplied by the bear market and that may continue to the end of the year but will witness pockets of Bitcoin pull attempt and break out price, we should anticipate a Bitcoin price of 35,000 to 40k within the last quarter of the year when all these events settle down and Bitcoin start building a strong resistance.

Bitcoin puts up a good fight yesterday as expected but could not break the confirming trendline resistance at 21927.87. At this point, I am slightly in favour of the bulls and any downside movement today will be treated as a mere correction that would create more earning advantage for the buyers.

And as you can see on the 4H chart below, the determining/confirming trendline resistance has shifted lower, which is a better opportunity that would disregard the sideways movement of the market by principle. Therefore, a break above the current trendline resistance at 21677 would confirm a short-term bullish trend that might see the market hitting 24440.42 and 25208.78.

---

Bitcoin is truly bearish in the long-term view, but should we disregard the intraday developments? The answer is No. I know how to accurately read the fundamental and technical analysis, and I know their strengths and weaknesses.

This makes me prefer the technical analysis because nothing is hidden in its sight, unlike the fundamental analysis that 10 traders could contradict themselves with their conclusions. The clarity of the technical analysis is there and true to its principles, and it is always working for me. All I need is patience most times! Anyone reading my daily speculations would not only gain but also learn if read insightfully.

The market can go either way truly, yet the bias will always shift to a side for us to take decisions (long or short term). For now, the bias is more bullish and the technical developments and levels being broken should be our further guide.

Right, sketchy and very tricky as well, we are looking for the sideway pattern right now, but still it can go either direction and hopefully it will not be on the negative side again.


I wanted to see breach 21927.87, that will be huge, this is a big resistance and if we can overcome it, we can still go to $22k at the end of the month. Still a good improvement as compare to those predictions like $18k. or lower.

My warning to the sellers paid off yesterday as buyers are trying to take control of the market. Nothing much has changed on Bitcoin since yesterday, it continues to move within its sideways levels that are tightly bound as I indicated. Yet, there is more hope of a minor bullish correction that might be worthwhile to the short-term buyers as long as the Stochastic oscillator on the daily chart is oversold.

The whole market scenario is sketchy, so extreme caution is still needed today. This is why I have prepared some simple technical levels to watch, perhaps the market would decide on breaking them.

Buy is possible above 21774.67 (sideways peak), while sell is possible below 20761.90 (sideways bottom). Also, a breach of 21927.87 (4H trendline resistance) will increase the assurance that the buyers are in control today.

Now it seems that Bitcoin is going down due to US dollar rising, bond yields are going higher, oil is creeping up and there is hints that the fed might not stop hiking. No idea why.

Seems inflation now is not the problem but the tight labor market. Unless productivity increases and unemployment goes up, it will do little for combating inflation. So all eyes are now at the economic data which will correlation with bitcoins macro moves in the medium future ahead.

Yesterday's analysis was a broader picture of Bitcoin, and the long-term bias remains bearish. Yet, one should be careful of any adverse development in the market within the bearish trend, which makes me use both the 4H and daily charts today.

As the market holds within the mentioned technical levels of 25214.61 and 17784.96 waiting for a breakout, further developments are happening within the levels. The daily chart validates a bearish trend but has been forming short candlesticks. This suggests the lack of interest by the sellers due to the oversold condition of the Stochastic oscillator on the chart. Bitcoin needs a break below yesterday's low of 20890.19 to resume its selling for the test of the low of June at 17784.96. Therefore, caution in selling this market is advised today. If Bitcoin closes positive today, it might then start a short-term bullish journey that might reach the trendline resistance at 24492.73, and a break of that level would announce 31599.68.



Also on the 4H chart, caution is advised as the market has been channelling (sideways) for days. It needs a successful breakout from either the peak or the bottom on this channel before a definitive short-term trend could be ascertained. However, the Stochastic oscillator is pointing higher on the chart, which suggests traders might prefer a bullish path today. A break of the trendline resistance at 22347.76 will further confirm it. Tomorrow should guide further on the market development.

---

Yes, the overall trend of the market is bearish, yet one should be cautious of the long-term scope only. A minor bullish pattern is forming already, patience is advised. I would update you on this tomorrow.

The truth remains that Bitcoin is bearish. Instead of gauging it by the year-end, it's clear to me that it will fully become bullish only above 25214.61, which is the August 2022 high, and above 26337.38, which is a weekly chart trendline resistance. Don't just assume, let the technical analysis gauge you.

Most likely this news will likely thank a toll on the market, and it seems that we are not yet over the ghost of Mt. Gox.

But the Sept fed rate hike meeting is not going to be very good for us, at least they know that the inflation is not slowing down. I mean they are just reacting to what we are seeing and it really doesn't look good.

So I will concur as well with the OP that the market is bearish short term or at least up to the end of 2022.

Yes it does seem bearish. If you look on the weekly you can see that we got front run on the previous weekly support. Many were probably going to short there and missed the opportunity. Plus the stock market is also turning over.

Right now I think the market is waiting on CPI prints, unemployment numbers and fed rate decisions before it decides which way to go. Right now we will just chop around unless there is some black swan event. There is also the ETH merge and the mt gox coins being distributed sometime soon.

This thread is born out of the passion I have for trading and regardless of my previous experience on a similar thread on the forum. It would always speak my view about the direction of Bitcoin with chart representations on the 4H, 1D and 1W only. I'm dedicating just one out of the many trading systems I know for this purpose.

One of the reasons I opened this topic is that I discovered that many users of the forum are just quoting the values of Bitcoin randomly without knowing the reason why they do so or what is exactly happening in the market, a lot of assumptions everywhere. Trading and gambling are not the same, such people might learn much through this thread if they are patient enough rather than attacking, being unconstructive or claiming superiority in trading.

I did not open this thread to claim I am better than anyone, and I will try my best to dedicate my precious time to it daily. No one is perfect, any speculation could be right or wrong, so please note that it is my view on Bitcoin and anyone using it to trade is doing so at their own risk, though it might help many to earn massively. "Plan and manage your risks all by yourself." Also, be informed that it is not a must for any targets to be hit, no one controls the market.

Again, please, note that this is my own opinion on Bitcoin, you might have yours, no problem, but let your replies and questions be constructive and wise.


Thank you!

---

Bitcoin is bearish in trend on the weekly chart, the whole outlook on the chart attests to that as the market has a bearish price action that wants to continue the selling witnessed last week. However, the major technical levels to watch out for are the peak of last week at 25214.61 (resistance), which doubles as a double-top level and the low of June at 17784.96 (support), which is the low of 2022.

A break above 25214.61 will launch a bullish attach on the trendline resistance at 26337.38, and if further broken, it would be a major breakthrough for the cryptocurrency as it might reverse higher in long-term disposition for a test of 48189.83 and the all-time high of 68999.99 in extension.

At the moment, the trend of Bitcoin is bearish and it aims to test the low of June at 17784.96 provided it maintains a bearish candlestick for this week and holds below 25214.61. A break below this level would further weaken the market as the Stochastic Oscillator points lower and MACD is negative.



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]