Topic: my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited - page 3. (Read 36883 times)

Right now the huge majority is Bearish on BTC; both here and in the "real world".
Is there any doubt about that?


EDIT:
VC $ is pouring in, but the mood is very Bearish.

for producers maybe. not consumers.

that would be a fun, lol 

fair enough. wasn't sure if philip was being sarcastic or not because of Poe's Law -- sounds exactly like something a newbie would actually believe checking out philips post history and join date though it's obvious he is an oldfag like us

that being said, i figured it would be worth pointing out in case of newbie lurkers who might actually think that such a line of thought is rational or correct haha

also i find a particular elegance in game theory, so sue me or just avoid the parties i go to. i would rather be at the party with the mathematicians and scientists anyway

--arepo

I think about BTC as a central gravitational point for all others cryptocoins, like a sun... even at exchanges what I see is the need to convert to btc... Sounds like what US dollar is to others fiat money.

My post was only sarcasm to bullshit wanna be serious theoretical responds like one you just did to phillipsjk's funny sarcastic one. Do you seriously think the stuff you posted in last 2-3 posts on this thread is some kind of wisdom?

Jeez, I wouldn't want to be at party with some of you guys, you're boring as rain in October.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up, they're already entirely in BTC. since everyone is in BTC, there is no fiat left to actually push the price up. the first person to actually realize this is incentivized to sell before anyone else does to get the best price for their coins, and for fear of selling too late at a possible loss. everyone else follows. this is where game theory helps in understanding price behavior.

If everyone thinks the price is going up than nobody is selling because everyone means, well.. everyone.

+1

was gonna say this. an efficient market moves to minimize profits. always.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

Yeah, those smart arses were always right about Bitcoin, lol

Lots of people would disagree! I still see articles almost every week (feels like every day) declaring the death of bitcoin, usually by an academic economist.

November 05, 2012, 11:41:30 AM
^^^
History records that after several months of waiting your rocket blasted our asses into orbit. 

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

I was thinking this exact same thing yesterday. Hard to know how long it will take for it to start rising. My guess would be it's still at least a few months off. There are lots of people who first learned about bitcoin during its rapid rise last fall from ~ 100 to above 1000, who are not accustomed to its volatility and who are fearful after seeing the bad news from China, bad news regarding MtGox with some pundits declaring this will be the death of bitcoin, the spate of hackers stealing bitcoins unrelated to Gox, and drop in value from 1200 to 600 which to them is a HUGE drop. I think they will bounce back into euphoria when the following things happen: 1) a few more months go by and bitcoin does NOT die, ie its value does not plummet below, I dunno, 100 or 200 which was the prior support level in their eyes; 2) new high-powered professional exchanges come online, dispelling the argument that MtGox was the death of bitcoin; 3) absence of any other really bad news items (high profile bitcoin individuals arrested for torturing baby kittens, that sort of thing); 4) one or two other big-ticket good news items. I am hopeful that something like Trezor will make bitcoin more user friendly for a wider audience. But I am particularly looking for something like ebay accepting payment in bitcoin to be the trigger for the next huge rally beyond the prior ATH.

However, I think it's still a little early for that huge rally. Trendline analysis puts the value of bitcoin today at $837 / BTC.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+since+jan+3%2C+2009%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

A rally in the 5000+ range before Dec 31 2014 is certainly attainable. The trendline puts the value at that time at $6519 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+31%2C+2014%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

Keep in mind that the April 10, 2013 peak of $266 was almost 4 times above the trendline of $75 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+apr+10%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

and the Dec 5, 2013 peak of 1200 (I forget the exact date and exact number) was about 3 times above the trendline of $409 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+5%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

the point being that a strong rally can easily go higher than the trendline. Bear in mind that volatility should be expected to decrease with time, so a peak of, say, 2 times above the trendline at some point this year would not violate expectations. 

I concur, except for the chooo chooo part.

1. New ATH by end of July

2. $5000 by year end.

CHOOOOOO CHOOOOO!

Now you know?

I too was thinking to resurect my favorite post.
Nice to see I m not alone.

I am right there with you.  BitChicksHusband and I were telling some friends to buy right before it was $200 in October saying that it had been stagnant for a while but we expected a big jump soon.  Of course, our friend did not act very soon and waited until the price was $400 to buy.   Oh well. 

But it does seem very similar for some reason.  The calm before the storm.