Topic: my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited - page 8. (Read 36883 times)

I suspect Google will wait a few months to let WordPress be the guinea pig.

I would have expected more of a price rise with the wordpress news just like I would have expected a huge move down off of GLBSE closing.

Seems like the market ignores the news for the most part.

and now it's easier for a big player like Google to say, "what?  Wordpress is doing IT!"

Very interesting, thanks for linking that.

Mike Hearn ring a bell? This guy is a google employee and he's been helping bitcoin on the technical side since at least early 2011 (implemented bitcoinj, for example) and really can be seen as an innovator or visionary who thinks several steps ahead (for example: smart contracts, pay to policy). See his presentation at the conference in London: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mD4L7xDNCmA

Now, this doesn't imply that it's likely that google would embrace bitcoin in such a fundamental way as to integrate a bitcoin client into GWallet. On the other hand: google has been seen to make quite big bald moves at times, so I wouldn't rule that out at all. It would certainly dwarf anything we've seen so far and surely get the rocket going.

Google employees get to spend 10% of their time at work, working on anything they wish. G-bitcoin might have stated as a pet project that is now getting some serious attention.

Yeah, when you buy, do it on mtgox, when you sell, do it locally in order to not move the price ;>

Well its just speculation, but seems pretty plausible to me considering that one of the google emploees made bitcoin library for java.

given that Mike Hearns works for Google, this has been thought to be a possibility for a long time.  now with Wordpress's announcement and the tone of it...

I would say pretty unlikely, although in this Report (sorry German only), there is a guy from Google, stating that Google watches possibilities how the Bitcoin protocol could be used. So they are at least interested.

no freekin' way!  are u kidding me?! 

Sorry to interrupt, i just drop this one here https://twitter.com/JoeCascio/status/269641282450776065

Sorry, ignoring people is against my beliefs. Not even Goat made me press the button!

I certainly don't think you're an idiot, I thought you were a troll, but now I'm not sure. Generally, I do agree with some (or even most) of the points you make but repeating them over and over again seems pretty pointless to me. The bitcoin economy is underdeveloped, we should try to change it. Unfortunately, I'm not of much help because I live in a shitty country and my english language skills a quite limited, but you could invest your time and effort in building the bitcoin economy one e-mail at a time. Think about it.

I actually encourage you to press that orange button if you really think I am trolling and/or an idiot.

Anyway: I mentioned two different topics, or attempts at explanation. If you don't agree with em fine, but at the very least post a rebuttal of the points you think are fallacious in detail, don't accuse me of something.

another thing about hoarding.  you assume just b/c hoarders hold a "large" number of coins that they are going to "dump" them at any second and crash the price.  as i said above, they're hoarding for a reason; the price has not yet reached it "fair equilibrium price" which most of them are concluding is much higher than it is now.  yes, its not a science as much as you'd like so there's no way to determine exactly what number that is or when it will be reached.  but that's also the beauty of subjective value.  every hoarder will decide what that fair price is on the way up; $20, $50, $100, $1000, $10,000 who knows?  they will unload at different points along the way dampening volatility.  fair money will lead to less volatility in the long run, not more.  of course we had huge volatility last year but that was growing pain. look at the volatility since then.  its getting less and less as more ppl understand what Bitcoin is all about.  participants are getting less scared and more confident and thus less likely to dump.  

I fail to understand what it has to do with the prisoner's dilemma or the game theory in general, but anyway...
Yes, hoarding (or lack of liquiduity) is a huge problem of Bitcoin caused by its underdeveloped economic infrastructure. Yes, it is one of the main reasons of Bitcoin's huge volatility. And yes, it is one of the most discussed topics in the bitcoin community. But it is not a fundamental problem caused by bitcoin's very nature. It is part of the phase we must go through and we wish that it ends soon. I have noticed that your posts mostly consist of saying why bitcoin is bad and how its price is bound to fall and stay very low. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate constructive criticism, but what you provide seems to me as pointless trolling (bitching and moaning) - hence the color of your ignore button.

Let's do something useful for a change : bombard Amazon with emails about why they should accept Bitcoin as a payment method, will you?

you sure did grossly misapply the conclusions of that paper to Bitcoin!  i didn't even have to read the paper, just the abstract.

you're totally missing the fact that the entity studied was gubbermint.  what source of funds do gubmints have that the rest of us don't?  why, the printing press!  that's what enables them to prop up assets to maintain price fiction.  of course that dynamic is unsustainable and will lead to volatility and bubble busts.  does Bitcoin suffer from that same dynamic?  of course not.  yes, its theoretically possible that all the USD being printed or borrowed could be causing Bitcoin to rise if it is just another ponzi asset.  but i don't think so.  Bitcoin is its own self contained new form of money that cannot be printed ad infinitum by a particular corrupt elite group like gubmint.  what's really happening is a paradigm shift from a bad system to a good honest system.  and that will be self sustaining.

the other problem i have with your reasoning has to do with hoarding.  no doubt that is going on with Bitcoin.  you see it as a bad sign; i see it as a good sign.  ppl are hoarding for a reason; the value of Bitcoin has not reached its equilibrium.  the collective wisdom of its market sees a "fair" price as being much higher than what it is currently.  why?  b/c its so new and the majority of ppl haven't heard of it.  the fundamentals behind Bitcoin are so strong that current hoarders are correctly estimating that the price should rise as awareness becomes more widespread.  most ppl "know" that the current fiat money system is corrupt and favors a select few.  but only a few of those same ppl know about Bitcoin.  that's going to change and fast.  hoarding should be viewed by you as a positive sign as it indicates a just and fair application of Gresham's Law.  ppl are "RunningToBitcoin".  hey, i better grab that site name before Trace does as i just coined a better site name than his. 

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

The corollary is that after experimental rockets were designed and built they had a penchant for blowing up on the launch pad or soon afterwards.  It took many tries to get consistent successful results. 

I completely agree with that.

As for the rocket analogy:
I think we are still in the blueprint/prototype stage...

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.