Topic: My Past nine months bitcoin journey - page 2. (Read 2828 times)

You have not read the OP.

He says he is buying for the long term, and there is no reason to believe that he is selling or planning to sell, except your reading into the situation....

Of course, one of the difficulties in any long term investment, including BTC would be the first several years that your holdings are small and they might NOT be in profits or there is a bit of uncertainty about long term ability to make profits. 

With BTC, there has been a lot of pay-off for folks who kept investing and who have held for 4 years or longer.. and for sure, the longer that folks have been able to hold (and maybe even keeping on investing during that time), the more likely their investment into BTC has been paying off for them.

Your implication that it is not easy to buy and hold for the long term is surely correct, especially with an asset like bitcoin that has historically been quite volatile and has tended to scare the shit out of people, even some people who had already been investing into it for a long time, but likely more scary (relatively speaking) for the newer entrants into it.

I also cannot understand if OP has updated his journey or not, is the 8th month considered to be February? It's mentioned that he did not have enough time to update the starting post, but it's not clear when it was lastly updated. Kind of confusing, @aysg76 I'd suggest to use dates, at least mention month and year on each month that passes by (02/2022, 03/2022). Hadn't read an update for quite long and not sure where you left off, it's a shame that for such a petty mistake, makes it hard to comprehend how time progresses throughout your Bitcoin journey. It's an interesting approach, just make sure you mention which month is which in the starting post to make it more clear.

I just looked at OP, and it is a little confusing regarding either when it was last updated and also which months correspond to each of you depicted months.  It may be good to clarify those points...

Due to some reasons was not able to update the thread with this month investment but have never thought of abandoning the thread as have promised to update it as long as i can along with my DCA investment journey.

Will prepare the chart soon and will send the progress report to all members here soon and boost some morale of the members that Bitcoin investment can be life changing for them and it's must for us to invest in it.Maybe tomorrow only the thread will be updated with the previous month investment and this time it was same.

Yeah these two months have been great for me as i finally managed to cross $100/week for bitcoin investment in them and that was really big thing for me.As you said i am compiling all the months update in the @OP only for full fledged comparison and nice representation for other members as well.

The $100 per week was too big when i first started to invest through this eight months ago as was thinking that small amounts would be sufficient enough like $30-$40 per week but then as promised to keep the amounts growing per week i thought of going it that way only if some problem arises also.But to my astonishment not much of problems were there in $100 accumulation phase and now i am happy for it meanwhile and now it's all good.

At this accumulation phase I have pledged to go for long and manage funds by hook or crook to safeguard myself from the future inflation and yes i might surprise you with my long term investment strategy on which you have some doubts but can't predict the future correctly as only assumptions could be made.But will still try my best to keep this going for long period.

You have said about 0.1 btc is sufficient to gain some good status and i am worth more than that but to correct you i am currently at 0.05 btc accumulation with my investment over these eight months but will surely reach that level soon of which I am guaranteed about because not too long period gap is there.

Was sad about btc going down the other way but that's true was happy as I was able to gain more sats at low prices because you see after a long time we have seen them below $35k and after some years it will never be the same.Like can we have the opportunity to invest at $100 or so in btc now? The answer is simple NO so just get as much you can because after 2 years only we might not see this ever.

I see your update in OP.

Very nice 7th and 8th month.. averaging more more than $100 per week for each of those two months.. 

That's great.

And it would be a good thing if you are able to maintain that level of ongoing investment for the coming 4 years (or at least 3 years and 4 months), and yeah of course, if you are not getting close to fuck you status, you are likely advantaged by a certain period in which the BTC prices stay down... even for a decent period time.  And sure, you can reconsider your approach at various points along the way too if you want to change anything but at least $100 per week seems to be a very reasonable amount...

I do have my doubts about your ability to keep going for 4 years or even 8-10 years, but hey, you never know, we might be surprised, but it looks to me that even something like 0.1BTC may well be in the entry level fuck you status in 11 years.. and you are more than half way there in ONLY 8 months...  Look at this.

Of course, my December 23 post in this thread showed that it is quite possible that with something like $100 per month (or even making up for some of your past lower levels of DCA amount) you may well be able to get to 0.428 BTC by the middle of 2025... and gosh that would get you to fuck you status earlier, too - just to project out. .getting to something like 0.8 BTC might well put you at fuck you status in early to mid 2030... and it seems like it could be possible to do that with $100 per week-ish.. even though you feel bad about lower BTC prices, you are able to accumulate more BTC to help getting to some higher possible target levels of BTC accumulation.. which would also cause less pressures in terms of how much the fiat price might need to be for you to feel that you are getting into fuck you status.. as surely some of those measures will also change with the passage of time, too... and needs to continue to reassess along the way and stay more focused on the longer-term... which surely would not be bad for you or anyone else if you are able to get to some kind of close level of fuck you status in 10 years or so (and persistent and aggressive action, even during these dip periods) likely helps to get there faster.. so long as you continue to stay persistent and relatively aggressive - without going over board.. if you over-extend yourself, then you become more likely to panic, too.

Finally I have managed to complete my regular Eight months of Bitcoin DCA investment and was happy and sad at the same time.The happy moments were managed to accumulate more sats at these discounted prices and sad because they are continuously dipping afterwards and now they are at around $33k which is negative sign for holders

But see with my this DCA strategy i have accumulated 0.05BTC with my investments which was not possible for me with one time investment only and see this is power of DCA if you asked.Have secured my future with these investments and plan to carry it for long until i am having funds with me to support it.

Happy bitcoin holders and get yours at some discount prices which you might not get later on.

I would characterize the distinction of investing in BTC versus trading a bit differently than how you have done aysg76.

Investing has more to do with both the timeline for how long you expect to hold your BTC and also the lessening of emphasis on selling.... Of course, you have complete discretion over how to think about your investment and to consider whether you would like to change your strategy or mindset about your investment at any time. 

The two concepts of investing and trading might have some overlap in the way you think about them or the way that you practice them, but there are ways to attempt to distinguish them in terms of investing having less emphasis on selling and more emphasis on holding for a longer timeline as compared to trading having more emphasis on selling (from time to time) and not necessarily holding for any kind of extended period of time.

With your example of having $500, and choosing how to invest it.  Whether you invest right away or you invest over time, investing all at once would be lump sum investing and investing over time could be dollar cost averaging (DCA) or you could also having a combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips, which would all be forms of investing.

Trading would end up including selling, and sometimes people sell some or all of their BTC while hoping to buy back lower, and that would be trading.. even though there are ways to argue that if they are accumulating BTC profits, then that could be investing if part of their portfolio is set aside.. but some people have difficulties controlling their gambling inclinations so they may end up selling too much too soon and then not buying back before the price goes back up (well, that is if the price dips).

Part of the reason that I ongoingly emphasize buying and holding and deemphasize selling is because ongoingly buying has tended to be a decently good strategy so long as there is holding of whatever is bought for 4-10 years  or more.. and there is no real reason to conclude that ongoingly buying bitcoin and accumulating of bitcoin is not going to continue to be a decently good ongoing strategy.  Of course, each of us has our own abilities to conclude that we want to sell some or all of our bitcoin position, and from my point of view there is some needs to be careful in terms of managing your own budget and cashflow in order that you do not end up NOT having sufficient amount of cashflow and/or emergency funds.. and also so that you are not tempted to dig into any or all of your bitcoin at a time that is other than your own choosing, but if you try to plan for the long term, such as 4-10 years out or maybe even set some targets regarding reaching fuck you status before starting to cash out... and of course, each of these assessments are individual in nature, and if you accumulate a decent amount of bitcoin, you will likely increase (rather than lessen) the number of options that you have... also the greater that you are in profits - maybe over one or two cycles, you will also start to feel that you have more options - but also hopefully, if you do start to trade or get tempted by other kinds of strategies, then hopefully you recognize and appreciate risks and do not play around with too much of your overall BTC stash.. perhaps less than 10%, but that is also up to each person to assess how to manage his/her BTC portfolio as it becomes larger and large (and presumably it will with time, even though there are no guarantees with that, either).

There is difference between investing and trading which people need to understand and what I am doing at this time is DCA form of investment strategy which is helping me to accumulate more btc at the same amount.

For making full clarification here is one example of of normal investment vs DCA investment:

Suppose you have $500 with you and want to invest the same in bitcoin then you decided to go all in at one time and then you made investment of $500 in single transaction at say $50k then you would have 0.01BTC with you.

But on the opposite side you decided to invest $500 over three to four times rather than going one time and invested at different prices like in the @OP i have done so could manage to gain more coins at similar $500 investment.

This thread is dedicated to bitcoin investment and if you want to have any altcoin or shitcoin discussion then have it altcoin section because for me btc is the best alternative to safeguard my future against everything and have financial support.

Nobody is talking about trading here (or even selling)..

or alt coins (shitcoins)

or comparing bitcoin to shitcoins.

This thread is about ways to accumulate bitcoin and manage a bitcoin accumulation strategy.

I go through the work is nice, for me but i dont know for others, over to the place you made mention of altcoins, no coin that is not good for trading and mostly the coins that have good project, some people taught that bitcoin and the seniors brother is only coin someone can use for trading but generally any coin that is good and recognize can sell in trading market

I would phrase this aspect slightly differently in terms of getting your finances in some kind of order before taking any kind of serious or large investment into bitcoin or any other investment.

Sure, off the top of our heads, many of us already know our budgets such as how much cashflow we have and how many expenses we have, and yes, sometimes there is not a whole hell of a lot of money left after our expenses in order to have for investments.. so sometimes, we may well just have to take from a portion of our budget, like you did OP, in terms of knowing that if you are regularly buying some kinds of junk food, then that money could go into bitcoin instead...

But still we many of us are likely creatures that want to have our temptations filled.. so we hate to be depriving ourselves of pleasures in the event that we have the means (such as some extra money) to be able to give ourselves pleasures - even if spending money on the short-term pleasures might not be good for our long term budget and even if we might be able to get more pleasures by putting that money into bitcoin and deferring the current pleasures for possible grater levels of pleasures at a later date (presuming that the bitcoin continues to grow in value in a decently high rate in comparison to other places that we could store that value - and of course, not guaranteed, merely a theory that seems to have pretty decently good odds of playing out favorably). 

In other words, if you get your funds in order including really projecting out your cashflows and expenses, then you are likely better able to see if you are able to afford putting more into bitcoin, but surely I agree with you aysg76 regarding the everyone has some problems and none of us should be tempted to be spending more on bitcoin than what we might need in the short terms - or even what we might need in the coming several years... so one of the values of investing small amounts is that we should not miss it too much... and we are still able to pay for our expenses and to be able to have some pleasures in life so that we do not feel totally deprived merely because we are investing in bitcoin.

I was quite skeptical when you first made this thread, it's doubtful that you remember my response, after so many replies. However, I see that you're doing pretty well, still on the plus side, despite the market being bearish right now.

The largest investment though, wasn't the Bitcoin you purchased, it's actually the money you're managing to set aside each month, by cutting on expenses. You're doing a great job managing your finances and investing at the same time.

Keep up the good work.

I can say this DCA investment could give you profits if you can hold it for long period but frankly saying that we all have some financial problems including me but maybe i have said earlier also that we need to come out of our comfort zone to some extent and go beyond our limits and save some funds into bitcoin.When I initially started investing in bitcoin there were some problems to me as well fiat related but when i see the worse conditions with fiat and they losing value over time then i am more comfortable with my btc investment.

But here is suggetion to you that if you can't afford to invest in bitcoin through DCA or say don't have funds to invest regularly then do one thing like save some amounts that you don't need for your regular expenses and can invest for some period then surely invest small amounts also and slowly you will see the profits in your pocket.Rest is all your decision.

This is a nice investment, I wish such investment will be successful for me. But fiat is my major problem. After investing into bitcoin, I find myself going back to my coins for rescue when I lack fiat in my local bank account

I will try everything possible to save more bitcoins and take my eyes off my coins.

I would phrase that slightly differently because we had a high of $64,895 in mid April 2021 before the dip down to $28,600 (that more or less lasted May/June/July and of course using Bitstamp as the reference and a 56% correction), and then our second peak of the ATH of $69k started to push UP in early August and reached its peak on November 10 before we dipped back down to the most recent correction of $41,967 (39%).. The particular numbers or even the exact percentages of the dip are not that material, but there is a bit of materiality to recognize and appreciate that our second peak in November was a bit more than $4k higher than the first peak in April.

As far as DCA and longer term goes, maybe those details do not matter too much except just showing that we could have further UP coming.. and surely, I would consider anyone in their first 4 years of BTC accumulation (especially if they are using relatively modest amounts) to be potentially very early in a longer term play... of course, individuals can do whatever they want in terms of perhaps having longer term intentions but it can be very difficult to NOT be tempted in terms of dipping into your stash along the way.. and so in that regard, there can be many disappointments along the way with people NOT having patience to HOLD for longer terms and really start to experience the greater kinds of compounding of wealth that is more likely to come with longer passage of time (of course, again not guaranteeed, which probably makes some people anxious to lock in their fiat gainz maybe even sooner than they should).



It seems to be good that you are studying some of the history to be able to verify that sometimes the shorter periods can be kind of ambiguous regarding how much profits have been made and they might not even be very high profits, but with the passage of time, there have been a lot of examples of considerable amounts of profits, so even if the magnitude of the numbers do not play out the same, there should surely be a lot of people who are able to profit in very decent ways so long as they have some long term patience and are able to really show it through their actions too..

We also see that buying at the very top of the 2017 price rise at nearly $20k would still have been profitable, but a DCA strategy would likely have been even more profitable, because the BTC price ONLY peaked for a short period of time, and if you kept a $100 per week through that whole UP and DOWN period through the whole year and especially into the whole of 2018, your average cost per BTC would have been well below $10k per BTC... so when the first price rise of late 2020 to early 2021 came, you would have gone pretty quickly from nearly break even levels to 6.5x in profits, and then bounced back down to 3x in profits, which still would not have been a bad place to be.. including right now being about in 5x profits.


I am likely going to add a few more columns to that spreadsheet and submit it again.. I have a couple things that I am trying to do in the coming days.. but I am thinking to resubmit it.

As far as the column that currently shows DCA Added at $2,756, the value contained therein takes the amount per week ($100) * 26 and then multiplies by the amount of interest for the six month period (*1.06).  So there is an assumption of both contributing $100 per week and also getting a 6% return on the whole period for those contributions (which might be too bold of a presumption).. I still consider an overall presumption of slightly more than 12% per year CAGR is reasonable.. even though it could take 4-8 years to really see that average out and likely even outperform the projections --- but I still like to have relatively conservative projections - even though they might not seem so conservative in the short-run.. but even with conservative projections, you can still see that it tends to take a while for the amount of value to build up, but if you continue to project it out... the amounts get larger, and larger and larger.   


For sure, each of us has to attempt to be conservative in our BTC accumulation targets, and for sure I like to attempt to be able to relate to some of the difficulties of newbies to just get started in building their portfolios.. and sometimes newbies are way too impatience in terms of wanting to get rich quick.. and getting rich likely is a process that takes a decently long time.. especially if you are not engaging in various gambling techniques that put your principle at risk too frequently and then sooner or later those guys end up with nothing because they are always betting with their principle/capital so they never get anywhere... those have been my observations of a lot of people who never really end up building up their investment portfolios because they cannot stop themselves from gambling with too much of it../.. so for me it seems much more important to have a solid plan rather than relying too much on gambling and luck.

This year starting phase initiated the boost for bitcoin prices and then the rally continued for long time and the proof for this is exchange witness huge user demanding bitcoin and then Tesla announced investing 42000 bitcoins worth $1.5 billion approximately and the next phase was coinbase listing and some more factors like corona virus pandemic also hit hard and force people to invest in some kind of good financial asset with high returns and btc seems feasible to them.It was around $68k-$69k range which marked its ATH this year but the analysis for year end was somehow not accurate and we witnessed huge dips and they went to below $29k once and then jumped back to $52k around but then again as you said second dip was there which carried it to $42k again.

But they all are normal in course of bitcoin journey if we have a closer look at its 13 years journey then we don't find it hard to control our sentiments.Suppose there is holder from 2017 crash which was somewhat major crash in bitcoin when they went to $3k from $19800 ATH of 2017 as they fell about 85% of the value but those who have hold it over all these years till now are still at profit so even if they panic sell they already gain profits out of it.But for me I am into long term investment as said before also and will not get hurt with any of the dips because in the end it will rise and profits will be delivered along with the interest of all these years and then this regret feeling will be gone also.

You have presented the nice spreadsheet for all the DCA investment for $100 week and see how you could easily Manage to accumulate more bitcoins each time and at the last we will have more then you always mention

You must have 0.02BTC with you

The DCA investment has helped me a lot and will continue the same for long till i have funds with me to support my habit to survive the future.

On your first point regarding growing into higher levels of aggressiveness, that does not seem unusual for people who learn about bitcoin while they are investing and then at some point along the way start to consider that they might need to be a bit more aggressive in their investment approach.  Surely, the learning about the asset does not always resonate in the same way with people, and the subsequent market performance can make a difference too.   Some people feel more confidence when the asset goes up in price, and maybe they might start to feel dejected if the BTC price goes down in price and then they fail to buy at the most important times.. such as during a long period of down or stagnation..

This year has not really been stagnant, even though we had a 56% dip and a 39% dip.. Now if the dip continues from here, then maybe we can reassess, but one thing that I am referring to is something like a 1-2 year period of down and even if there might be some UP that comes after the first year or two, the amount of UP does not put you above the starting point... So those kinds of stagnant or negative periods can challenge the sentiments and even the buying aggressiveness of BTC accumulators.

Regarding your second point about the amount of BTC that you can get. Of course, I believe that it is a NOT too helpful of an exercise to get caught up upon the fact that you cannot get as many BTC as you would have been able to get 4-10 years earlier, even though there can be some fruitfulness in considering  past performance in those kinds of terms.. So, yeah in recent times we had talked about newbies with investment projection values of $10k to $20k having goals to get to 100 BTC and then with the passage of time those newbie goals came down because it became less reasonable for newbies to have those kinds of entry-level goals, so maybe the goal would be 21 BTC or 10 BTC or 5 BTC or 1 BTC, so maybe in recent times we have been talking about newbie entry level goals as 0.21BTC... So the amount of BTC that can be accumulated goes down... and at the same times, we likely have to bring down our projection of likely reasonable terms..  Surely there are ways to see that with a longer projection of BTC values, you can see quite lucrative returns that might easily average around 50% to 100% per year (aka CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate).  

So in that regard if you have an investment timeline of 4-10 years, maybe you want to be conservative in your expectations of what bitcoin's CAGR will be during that future time.. because the past CAGR may not exactly end up playing out, and as I already mentioned there is a bit of an expectation that it is going to come down to some extent as bitcoin's market cap continues to grow.. and we have likely come to agree that the projected CAGR of BTC is likely higher than most other assets even if if you might not be able to achieve 50% to 100% per year on a 4 to 10-year time horizon into the future.  

By the way, I had already asserted several times and in several threads (not sure if I did it here) that when I got into bitcoin, I had hoped for at least a 6% CAGR in the long term - but I did not necessarily expect to get such 6% CAGR in the first few years of my investing into BTC.  These days I use the 208-week moving average to project my BTC value (and the 208-week moving average is only at $18,500 currently), and I project an expectation that the 208-week moving average will move up at least 12% per year, and since the 208-week moving average is a lagging indicator, spot price tends to be higher than it, and the 208-week moving average tends to slope up - as well if BTC spot price starts to come close to the 208-week moving average (such as less than 12% distance) then from that information, I may well be able to project that in the future I might end up getting lower than 12% appreciation of that lagging indicator.

While I was typing this post, I did create a spreadsheet for my own information to attempt to project out DCA investing at $100 per week and with a variety of CAGR scenarios in order to attempt to project out values.. and with an anticipated 12% or to be able to customize such CAGR or amount invested.   The overall structure for the spreadsheet with rows in 6-month increments  for 4 years looked like this:

Start $   StartDate          % gain /time       Time                Price/BTC          #BTC
$0            7/1/21               6.00%                  182.6                $40,000.00             0.00000000

DCA-$100/Wk         DCA/wk>>>>      $100.00

   Date                     $Value         DCA-Add         Price/BTC            #BTC
   12/30/21              $2,756           $2,756           $42,400              0.06500000
   7/1/22                 $5,677           $2,756           $44,944              0.12632075
   12/30/22              $8,774           $2,756           $47,641              0.18417052
   7/1/23                 $12,056           $2,756           $50,499              0.23874578
   12/31/23              $15,536           $2,756           $53,529              0.29023186
   6/30/24               $19,224           $2,756           $56,741              0.33880365
   12/30/24              $23,133           $2,756           $60,145              0.38462608
   6/30/25               $27,277           $2,756           $63,754              0.42785479

At the initial phase when i started investing through this DCA method i also thought it will be very hard to cross $100 weekly investment limits but later on with time i found it interesting and profitable at the same time.Although my postion is not too good that i can spend enormous amounts only on Bitcoin as you know we need fiat also for our daily life but i have said it earlier also that we need to break our comfort zone if we need to safeguard our future from any other financial catastrophic events like hyperinflation could easily put you from rich to rags so it's better to tighten your expenses and plan for future ahead.

Obviously we can't get same amount of Bitcoin at even higher rates which we could get 10 years back because there is huge price variation but it doesn't mean we still waste time and like others i can't say i was not having sufficient funds to invest at that time.So trying my best to stack as many sats possible with me for long term and will see what my financial situation would be at that time.But one thing is for sure it would be far better than today and those who are spending vaguely will regret later on.This is life circle and we should utilise it in best possible manner.

I would suggest to not be playing around with buying crypto with your money, but instead to focus on bitcoin and get that nonsense term of crypto out of your thinking when it comes to even thinking about bitcoin investing which might be a way to attempt to start thinking about longer term time horizons.. in order to attempt to appreciate accumulating and holding for the longer term.. .. of course, any accumulating of bitcoin will likely help you out 4 years or longer, but if you are accumulating relatively smaller amounts in the range of $10 to $100 per week, then likely an investment time horizon of 10 years or longer would be better ways to think about attempting to set yourself into a better position... I know it sometimes can be difficult to think so far out into the future.. but time does seem to be one of the aspects that really make a difference in terms of starting to see meaningful value and appreciation in bitcoin...

So for example, if we look at $100 per week for 6 months, we ONLY have around 24% price appreciation, and at a year we have 30% and if we zoom out 4 years we have 5.3x appreciation and at 9 years we have about 177x.

For sure, we know that past performance is not going to likely give similar levels of returns in terms of percentages and even in bitcoin we can see that the price appreciation slope has become more gradual over the years, so surely historically it has been better to get in early, if you were able to get in early.. and there really are no reasons to conclude that bitcoin is a worse investment, even if the upside slope seems to be less steep.. but we can still look at both upside potential and downside risk to assert that bitcoin is likely to be less risky these days than it was in earlier years..

and of course, currently we cannot move the clock back so we can ONLY invest into bitcoin with whatever resources that we have in front of us at this time and wherever that we might be and attempt to be reasonable about the whole matter in terms of our own financial and psychological circumstances.. especially if your investment amounts are relatively small... such as less than $100 per week.