My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;)) - page 11.

Shiroslullaby

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Quote from: tokeweed on October 08, 2016, 04:47:12 AM

Another guess is that there may be some small ETH holders who want to switch to BTC due to BTC showing some strength lately.

I actually think this may be the case for a lot of altcoins.
If people are expecting BTC to go up they may pull out of other investments and sit on their coins until we hit the $650-700 mark some people are predicting.

tokeweed

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ETH/BTC: Short now? But where's the volume?

If you read my more newer posts about ETH/BTC, you'll see that I suggested that it be short sold maybe a month or a couple months ago. I think I said this about 2 times only for it to either stay flat or go up. It hit my stoploss on my second attempt and I got of tired waiting for it to move in my first attempt so I covered.

This time around there's another signal but I'm reluctant to make a move on it because the volume isn't there. Maybe this recent sell down is made by one anxious whale and it'll be over soon. Another guess is that there may be some small ETH holders who want to switch to BTC due to BTC showing some strength lately. Whatever it is, I'll continue to watch but I'm sitting on my hands on this one for now...

olcaytu2005

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Quote from: ArticMine on October 06, 2016, 02:56:17 PM

Quote from: qwizzie on October 01, 2016, 10:50:33 AM

...

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

While having over 60% of the Dash money supply tied up in the masternodes can over the short term support the price of Dash it can also be a double edged sword and lead to a sharp fall in price of Dash if the market were to perceive that the fall in price is going to be greater than the masternode yield.

A sharp drop in price is of course a opportunity for a day trader playing the short side of the market. Having said this day trading any crypto currency can be an incredibly risky business. I seriously doubt that any particular crypto currecny is actually more suited for day trading than others.

While the numbers are not exact, at least %60 of 4000ish masternodes were created with cheap coins. Since the price was a joke at those times, it was very easy to get 1000 darkcoin and many people rather locked them up in masternodes as the single month profit is probably greater than the amount they paid to get 1000 coins. Either way, having coins locked up in masternodes does indeed create a scarcity and pushes up the price.

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: qwizzie on October 01, 2016, 10:50:33 AM

...

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

While having over 60% of the Dash money supply tied up in the masternodes can over the short term support the price of Dash it can also be a double edged sword and lead to a sharp fall in price of Dash if the market were to perceive that the fall in price is going to be greater than the masternode yield.

A sharp drop in price is of course a opportunity for a day trader playing the short side of the market. Having said this day trading any crypto currency can be an incredibly risky business. I seriously doubt that any particular crypto currecny is actually more suited for day trading than others.

olcaytu2005

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Meh. Factom started to bullish now, since the spikes are getting higher low resistances I'm kinda urged to open a long position. There seems to be accumulation going on with the it. What do you guys think? Maybe it was not just a pump.

Shiroslullaby

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Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 05, 2016, 04:03:58 AM

Will xmr going to touch sub 0.007? What do you guys think?

I really hope not.
I feel like the market for the coin is really fragile right now.
People were expecting it to do big things, and now that things are getting stale, everyone is in panic mode.
A slight drop might lead to a huge panic selloff which may be hard to recover from.
If it drops to 0.01 it probably will drop to 0.007 unfortunately. Sad

olcaytu2005

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So glad I shorted over 460, I closed my position at 425 as we might see some spikes that can be taken advantage of. I'm also sad that I closed my short on ripple too early, I have had several shorts between 1550 - 1350, guess I just need some more btc to spread my positions.

I'm also watching xmr to short for a week know, I was almost certain that a short would be awesome over 130 before the REP addition, but had open positions on ripple so I was pennyless. Will xmr going to touch sub 0.007? What do you guys think?

olcaytu2005

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It also felt like a dead cat bounce to me. It got overhyped in trollbox and people fomo bought a lot. Factom is a good investment long term nonetheless however in short term I think it might go back to sub 400. More than half of the buys are grouped up under 370 and minus the fake walls all it takes a little bit of dump to start the dumpfest. I think it would go back to 330-360 range for further accumulation for the next real pump.

tokeweed

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Quote from: owaisted on October 04, 2016, 08:38:02 AM

Great initiative. As for someone new, can you share greater light on your technical analysis. And if possible, send the noob in direction towards better TA. What I am asking is how can I learn TA for my self. I have tried youtube but the information is so scattered.

My advice would be to dive in and actually trade with real money and in a live setting. Since you have already watched videos and I assume have read some books then the next step is to learn through experience. Why not start from a small amount and start trading with that. You'll soon find out that actual trading is different from looking at the markets.

Now onward to Factom...

FCT/BTC: A Dead Cat Bounce?

So I just read the news on Coindesk that Factom got 4.2 million USD in series A funding that was lead by none other than Tim Draper: http://www.coindesk.com/factom-blockchain-series-a-4-2-million/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CoinDesk+%28CoinDesk+-+The+Voice+of+Digital+Currency%29

So the FCT market got crazy and there's buying everywhere giving the shorts a little cringe on why this is happening now. But the real question is, "Is this a dead cat bounce or is it the start of a reversal?" In my experience this usually means a DCB. These movements are normal in trading markets and nothing ever traded in an exchange goes down or up in a straight line. FCT still is ok for now if you are shorting it but always keep in mind to protect yourself and set a stop loss and be ready to cover you shorts.

owaisted

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Great initiative. As for someone new, can you share greater light on your technical analysis. And if possible, send the noob in direction towards better TA. What I am asking is how can I learn TA for my self. I have tried youtube but the information is so scattered.

tokeweed

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Quote from: sandiman on October 03, 2016, 06:22:05 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on October 03, 2016, 06:06:31 AM

Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 02, 2016, 05:47:16 PM

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months. It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

XRP is probably one of the best looking TA chart in Polo :

We broke an important resistance in mid september but could not hold above 1450 ish, now the most important resistance.

the old resistance at 1100 ish became support, and we consolidate here in a trading range after the break out. Once we got fuel back, market tried to break again 1450 ish but could not hold above it. We may be forming a trading range between the old resistance which became support and 1450 ish.

Ps: notice the sign of accumulation since june that are very bullish (nonetheless, one could argue last pump attempt saw a bit of distribution, which could go with the hypothesis that we could be forming a new trading range).

Thanks for sharing your chart and analysis. I made a small buy in XRP after seeing it and I made other lower bids in case I could get in cheaper. Wink

Keep the charts and analysis coming. It would be nice to have more people post their thought process so that we could learn from each other.

Quote from: sandiman on October 03, 2016, 08:37:53 AM

Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 03, 2016, 07:23:53 AM

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

Market makers have nothing to do with pumper, otherwise we'll have a conflict of interest Wink

Yup the market makers don't really care at what direction the market goes as they can make some profit either way. The whales, the pumpers and the insiders are the ones to look out for but the problem is how.

sandiman

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Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 03, 2016, 07:23:53 AM

I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

Market makers have nothing to do with pumper, otherwise we'll have a conflict of interest Wink

olcaytu2005

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I'm currently riding the small waves around 1300-1360. Its been like this couple of days. But It's pretty obvious someone is accumulating the sell side up until 1360 when there are enough orders. However, because of the huge dumps it might be also viable to think that market makers are out for now, as the volume is fading too. I predict a spike either way soon. Mostly likely top but it could be to 1100 too.

sandiman

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 501

Quote from: tokeweed on October 03, 2016, 06:06:31 AM

Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 02, 2016, 05:47:16 PM

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months. It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

XRP is probably one of the best looking TA chart in Polo :

We broke an important resistance in mid september but could not hold above 1450 ish, now the most important resistance.

the old resistance at 1100 ish became support, and we consolidate here in a trading range after the break out. Once we got fuel back, market tried to break again 1450 ish but could not hold above it. We may be forming a trading range between the old resistance which became support and 1450 ish.

Ps: notice the sign of accumulation since june that are very bullish (nonetheless, one could argue last pump attempt saw a bit of distribution, which could go with the hypothesis that we could be forming a new trading range).

tokeweed

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Life, Love and Laughter...

Quote from: olcaytu2005 on October 02, 2016, 05:47:16 PM

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months. It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

olcaytu2005

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1024

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

sandiman

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 501

Quote from: qwizzie on October 01, 2016, 10:50:33 AM

Quote from: tokeweed on September 30, 2016, 10:02:00 PM

Quote from: sandiman on September 30, 2016, 04:20:25 PM

Quote from: shanem on September 30, 2016, 12:55:23 PM

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex Wink

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you. If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading. But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold. That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge. It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

Bs; basic finance there.

if you want to calculate your return with such interest you do:

(P1-P0+D1)/P0

P1: price today
P0=Price as which you bought
D1:Dividends (here interest) you received

If you bought the top, sfyl but 8% might not be enought short term.

qwizzie

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Quote from: tokeweed on September 30, 2016, 10:02:00 PM

Quote from: sandiman on September 30, 2016, 04:20:25 PM

Quote from: shanem on September 30, 2016, 12:55:23 PM

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex Wink

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you. If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading. But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold. That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge. It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

Shiroslullaby

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Nice thread.
As someone who is new to trading its really helpful to have someone post this info and some explanation as to their thought process.
I appreciate your work and will check back later. GL 2 every 1

tokeweed

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Life, Love and Laughter...

FCT/BTC: The Same Pattern Over and Over

I have posted a couple of charts going through the same pattern, namely XMR/BTC and DASH/BTC. Although the volatility of the three differ the pattern and the behavior are almost identical. You also have to keep in mind that these three cryptocurrencies were the part of ones that trended up nicely for a couple or more months.

So what does this mean? Will see more of these in the coming months? Are we entering another phase of bearish outlook? Is to short the way to make profit at the moment? You decide.

Topic: My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;)) - page 11. (Read 22344 times)