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Topic: Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease) - page 2. (Read 7550 times)

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 14, 2014, 02:35:46 PM
#75
you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar.  

Right now a 1 TH/s, .6 J/GH machine looks like this:

Income @ $410/btc: $180/mo
Expense @ $.10/kwh: $43/mo

There's still significant profit potential at the current conditions.

Yeah but from the asic companies view point it is a tight margin if they want  to make another 20 or 30ph data center.

Just think  what happens if coins drop to 300 or 280 usd.   For now restriction of production new data centers while mining your current data center in theory  would drive the price of btc up.  They could only sell some to miners at high prices

( s-3's and s4's both high prices)  also (sp20's and sp35's) 

 BTW asicminer is selling long tubes (low price)  but they are late to ship. So it  sounds to me like these builders have conference calls.

 Then stop building data centers for 30 to 60 days.   Hoping coins move to 500 usd or more.


Please Remember this is the speculation section so guessing about shit and making up scenarios is fun to do.
sr. member
Activity: 443
Merit: 250
October 14, 2014, 01:16:48 PM
#74
The chances for a decrease are very small. For sure less than 3%...
legendary
Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
October 14, 2014, 01:05:49 PM
#73
you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar. 

Right now a 1 TH/s, .6 J/GH machine looks like this:

Income @ $410/btc: $180/mo
Expense @ $.10/kwh: $43/mo

There's still significant profit potential at the current conditions.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1037
October 14, 2014, 12:44:12 PM
#72
wisdom says that

Bitcoin Difficulty:   35,002,482,026
Estimated Next Difficulty:   36,073,113,817 (+3.06%)

and it is decreasing, we need to wait 1275 Blocks, About 8.8 days, to see what will happen..
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 13, 2014, 01:51:57 PM
#71
Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.

you need a solid watt savings.  right now .6 watts is the gold bar. 

  so  a jump  down to .4 watts does not cut it.

A jump down  to 0.15 - 0.3 watts  a hash has  real meaning.

I Still think late feb is optimistic  to think we see a real .2 watt machine.

   Remember gpus were 333 watts a gh     we now are at .8 a gh  (s-3 at the wall)   that was a 400x improvement.

so .8 to .2 would be nice but not the same by any means.   
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
October 13, 2014, 01:28:31 PM
#70
Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.

Those take time. At least 3 months from tape out and no future generation chip has taped out yet.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 500
Martijn Meijering
October 13, 2014, 12:16:05 PM
#69
Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Or technical improvements leading to significantly better J/GH or GH/s$, some of which are already in the pipeline.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 13, 2014, 11:10:02 AM
#68
There is still some hash that may come online for now
At the least in the long run a higher hash per price ratio will occur so we might still see difficulty rise
Something like if price is 500 price per gh is 1 dollar
If price was 300 price per gh is 60 cents to keep it equal meaning more hash offered or units get a discount.

Anyways doesn't look a decrease for now.

So it  looks like a slow increase of 5% or so.  My thoughts are 5%-9% will be close to most increases from now on.
 Unless we get BTC fiat jumps.

Builders are still making money  with the small diff jump model for now.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
October 13, 2014, 02:02:12 AM
#67
There is still some hash that may come online for now
At the least in the long run a higher hash per price ratio will occur so we might still see difficulty rise
Something like if price is 500 price per gh is 1 dollar
If price was 300 price per gh is 60 cents to keep it equal meaning more hash offered or units get a discount.

Anyways doesn't look a decrease for now.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 12, 2014, 10:23:34 AM
#66
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley
Bummer  Cry
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim Smiley

There's always next time, though Wink

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!
The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network

It's way too soon after the last adjustment to make any assumptions. The early predictions are usually very inaccurate.


It will be under 10% for sure unless coins go up.  I am convinced they  are holding back hash and hoping coins go up in price. 

 But frankly WTF do I know, not much when it comes to the top 5 builders of asics stock on hand.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1004
Glow Stick Dance!
October 12, 2014, 04:20:42 AM
#65
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley
Bummer  Cry
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim Smiley

There's always next time, though Wink

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!
The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network

It's way too soon after the last adjustment to make any assumptions. The early predictions are usually very inaccurate.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
Ever wanted to run your own casino? PM me for info
October 11, 2014, 10:28:31 PM
#64
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley
Bummer  Cry
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim Smiley

There's always next time, though Wink

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!
The next difficulty change is also slated to be much smaller then the previous increases have been so far this year. As per bitcoinwisdom the next difficulty is expected to increase by ~4% the next time it changes.

I think we may have hit a turning point in difficulty increases as the additional profitability is starting to wane for adding additional hashpower to the network
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
FUN > ROI
October 10, 2014, 11:57:38 AM
#63
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?)
yes wait until next year
Grin

( I was, of course, referring to the Bitcoin difficulty retargeting being based on the last 2015 blocks, not the last 2016 blocks, due to a bug in the code that was never fixed.  There's some other anomalies that can further offset the difficulty by a tiny smidgen. )
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 10, 2014, 11:31:52 AM
#62
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley
Bummer  Cry
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim Smiley

There's always next time, though Wink

yes wait until next year. or in this case next jump!
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
FUN > ROI
October 10, 2014, 06:10:08 AM
#61
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley
Bummer  Cry
Its fate was sealed 4 blocks before the end (based on 2015 blocks - hurrah for bugs?); after that block, even if the others had taken 1 hour and 10 minutes each (roughly the longest time between blocks in this stretch), difficulty would still have gone up, and the odds of that happening are of course very slim Smiley

There's always next time, though Wink
sr. member
Activity: 443
Merit: 250
October 09, 2014, 11:17:53 PM
#60
Yes - our market is also pretty sure. The likelyhood is between 3% and 0.01% percent.
Currently you would get more than 20times your money back if you predict a decrease:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-on-next-change/

most likely is a difficulty around 36B. That is more or less currently 50/50 if it is above or under.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-36b/

I wish (as im sure you do too) you had more players. The spread on the bets is large, and 1 btc bet can push the entire market way off.

Yap, you are 100% right. However, we nearly finished our API. https://www.fairlay.com/Api
With this it will be possible to program a simple script that calculates probabilities from live hash rates and places predictions accordingly to this. This would give market makers the chance to earn some money with the spread. As soon as we have more then one they will compete for the lowest spread and then this will become the best source for difficulty predictions. At least that is our plan/hope Smiley

If you have any suggestions what we can improve let us know! And if anyone with basic programming knowledge is interested in using the API we are happy to help and give early access.
hero member
Activity: 843
Merit: 608
October 09, 2014, 09:34:20 PM
#59
Yes - our market is also pretty sure. The likelyhood is between 3% and 0.01% percent.
Currently you would get more than 20times your money back if you predict a decrease:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-on-next-change/

most likely is a difficulty around 36B. That is more or less currently 50/50 if it is above or under.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-36b/

I wish (as im sure you do too) you had more players. The spread on the bets is large, and 1 btc bet can push the entire market way off.
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
October 09, 2014, 09:10:32 PM
#58
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley

Bummer  Cry

if it pulls 1 or  2  percent for the next few diff jumps and coins stay above 360 usd it is not a disaster for miners just yet.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
October 09, 2014, 03:14:11 PM
#57
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley

Bummer  Cry
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
FUN > ROI
October 09, 2014, 01:13:28 PM
#56
well, new difficulty is in - sorry OP, no difficulty decrease after all Smiley

old difficulty:
34,661,425,924
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