btc is back up to 376 usd. and diff is going to be very close to .5%
So with all said and done mining does not look too bad today. punch in those numbers and s-3's look better.
Topic: Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease) - page 3. (Read 7550 times)
it seems an average of 5% increase, and i cant understand, how difficulty is still increasing with these btc prices.
Because people are still adding hash to the network. Those with cheap electricity and cheap hardware still turn a profit even at the decreased price of BTC.Industrial mining farm are stil very profitable. Here is a nice graph user Puppet posted in several threads:
Doesn't matter what the J/GH is if you can never recover the capital cost of miners even with free electricity, which is where bitcoin mining stands right now.
You couldnt be more wrong. Here is a chart for you:
It shows the network speed where miners would break even after 2 years using the listed assumed variables. Even in the current climate and with current efficiency, we are no were near where (industrial) mining would not be profitable. And the effect of power efficiency is quite dramatic if you consider reasonable electricity cost price ranges (~0.06 / KWh)
The lesson that few home miners will take away from this little human experiment in greed, is that if bitcoin was to have succeeded then the movement should have spent the greater part of its time growing the use and implementation of bitcoin around the globe. Instead the bitcoin movement has obsessed with an arms race for lions share of the hashrate and lost out to the hardware providers whom the movement created, resourced via this misguided use of peoples time and energy to create this abomination that is now the industrial mining complexes that circle the globe.
it seems an average of 5% increase, and i cant understand, how difficulty is still increasing with these btc prices.
Because people are still adding hash to the network. Those with cheap electricity and cheap hardware still turn a profit even at the decreased price of BTC.Phil, you in AC playing craps to come up with that analogy? 
not since I joined a program.
Phil, you in AC playing craps to come up with that analogy?
Great thread.
So I had a chat with a 40 year veteran of the US Electric Power Industry over the weekend and based on what he was telling me, getting power in the US for under 3 cents sustained is next to impossible. You can get it in shifts, during off peak, do peak shaving and other tricks of the trade but here is the bottom line, at least in the US:
Generators will make more selling into the 'market' and to the ISO's even if it means taking generation offline. The example was that if a generator can generate power at 1 cent per Kwh and a miner came to them with a 40MW requirement and said they would pay 2 cents (100% margin), the gerator woul turn it down because they can get 7 cents per Kwh in the market someplace else. There are a bunch of other regulations that add to the reasons why buying direct can't or won't happen anytime soon.
I asked why not build a power plant and plug in a data center/mining operation into it and get a direct feed - regulation and the fact that you would need to have two generating plants for redundancy and your costs double. If you had grid tie in or wanted grid tie in to sell excess or to provide back up load, the regulations REALLY kick in and are prohibitive.
So the notion of continuous cheap power is a notion, at least in the US from what I was told, again from a guy who remembers the first NERC and FERC meetings.
The second thing I just looked at was hash rate to difficulty ratio growth for the last 6 months and the hash rate has gone up 5.5 times in the past 6 months while the difficulty has risen 4.3 times according to the data on blockchain.info I looked at. So the hash rate is growing ahead of the difficulty still, which leads me to believe that is a good thing and money can still be made but you need to go big (decimegawatt scale, 10MW at a time) and throw as much hash rate while the difficulty slips... Right?
the idea in bold is wrong.So I had a chat with a 40 year veteran of the US Electric Power Industry over the weekend and based on what he was telling me, getting power in the US for under 3 cents sustained is next to impossible. You can get it in shifts, during off peak, do peak shaving and other tricks of the trade but here is the bottom line, at least in the US:
Generators will make more selling into the 'market' and to the ISO's even if it means taking generation offline. The example was that if a generator can generate power at 1 cent per Kwh and a miner came to them with a 40MW requirement and said they would pay 2 cents (100% margin), the gerator woul turn it down because they can get 7 cents per Kwh in the market someplace else. There are a bunch of other regulations that add to the reasons why buying direct can't or won't happen anytime soon.
I asked why not build a power plant and plug in a data center/mining operation into it and get a direct feed - regulation and the fact that you would need to have two generating plants for redundancy and your costs double. If you had grid tie in or wanted grid tie in to sell excess or to provide back up load, the regulations REALLY kick in and are prohibitive.
So the notion of continuous cheap power is a notion, at least in the US from what I was told, again from a guy who remembers the first NERC and FERC meetings.
The second thing I just looked at was hash rate to difficulty ratio growth for the last 6 months and the hash rate has gone up 5.5 times in the past 6 months while the difficulty has risen 4.3 times according to the data on blockchain.info I looked at. So the hash rate is growing ahead of the difficulty still, which leads me to believe that is a good thing and money can still be made but you need to go big (decimegawatt scale, 10MW at a time) and throw as much hash rate while the difficulty slips... Right?
basically the current diff number is a 'real number'
any and all hashrate numbers are guesses and estimates.
the next diff number will be based on the time it took to do 2016 blocks (maybe 2116 as I had a beer or two tonight) so the diff number is always a true number and hashrate is a guess based on how fast you are making blocks.
Think of it like this. box cars or a pair of sixes with dice are a diff of 35 to 1 . So if I had 1 guy toss 1 pair of dice 10 times an hour it will take him a while to toss 'boxcars' or 6 + 6 . with normal luck it takes about 3.5 hours or 36 tosses to do it.
but if that guy tossed boxcars on ten tosses in a row. he would do 10 sets of ' boxcars ' in 1 hour .
it would make you think they were a few more guys tossing a few more pair of dice to get that many 6 + 6 tosses in only 1 hour .
your hashrate estimate would be very high
Great thread.
So I had a chat with a 40 year veteran of the US Electric Power Industry over the weekend and based on what he was telling me, getting power in the US for under 3 cents sustained is next to impossible. You can get it in shifts, during off peak, do peak shaving and other tricks of the trade but here is the bottom line, at least in the US:
Generators will make more selling into the 'market' and to the ISO's even if it means taking generation offline. The example was that if a generator can generate power at 1 cent per Kwh and a miner came to them with a 40MW requirement and said they would pay 2 cents (100% margin), the gerator woul turn it down because they can get 7 cents per Kwh in the market someplace else. There are a bunch of other regulations that add to the reasons why buying direct can't or won't happen anytime soon.
I asked why not build a power plant and plug in a data center/mining operation into it and get a direct feed - regulation and the fact that you would need to have two generating plants for redundancy and your costs double. If you had grid tie in or wanted grid tie in to sell excess or to provide back up load, the regulations REALLY kick in and are prohibitive.
So the notion of continuous cheap power is a notion, at least in the US from what I was told, again from a guy who remembers the first NERC and FERC meetings.
The second thing I just looked at was hash rate to difficulty ratio growth for the last 6 months and the hash rate has gone up 5.5 times in the past 6 months while the difficulty has risen 4.3 times according to the data on blockchain.info I looked at. So the hash rate is growing ahead of the difficulty still, which leads me to believe that is a good thing and money can still be made but you need to go big (decimegawatt scale, 10MW at a time) and throw as much hash rate while the difficulty slips... Right?
So I had a chat with a 40 year veteran of the US Electric Power Industry over the weekend and based on what he was telling me, getting power in the US for under 3 cents sustained is next to impossible. You can get it in shifts, during off peak, do peak shaving and other tricks of the trade but here is the bottom line, at least in the US:
Generators will make more selling into the 'market' and to the ISO's even if it means taking generation offline. The example was that if a generator can generate power at 1 cent per Kwh and a miner came to them with a 40MW requirement and said they would pay 2 cents (100% margin), the gerator woul turn it down because they can get 7 cents per Kwh in the market someplace else. There are a bunch of other regulations that add to the reasons why buying direct can't or won't happen anytime soon.
I asked why not build a power plant and plug in a data center/mining operation into it and get a direct feed - regulation and the fact that you would need to have two generating plants for redundancy and your costs double. If you had grid tie in or wanted grid tie in to sell excess or to provide back up load, the regulations REALLY kick in and are prohibitive.
So the notion of continuous cheap power is a notion, at least in the US from what I was told, again from a guy who remembers the first NERC and FERC meetings.
The second thing I just looked at was hash rate to difficulty ratio growth for the last 6 months and the hash rate has gone up 5.5 times in the past 6 months while the difficulty has risen 4.3 times according to the data on blockchain.info I looked at. So the hash rate is growing ahead of the difficulty still, which leads me to believe that is a good thing and money can still be made but you need to go big (decimegawatt scale, 10MW at a time) and throw as much hash rate while the difficulty slips... Right?
it seems an average of 5% increase, and i cant understand, how difficulty is still increasing with these btc prices.
Because people are still adding hash to the network. Those with cheap electricity and cheap hardware still turn a profit even at the decreased price of BTC.
it seems an average of 5% increase, and i cant understand, how difficulty is still increasing with these btc prices.
Yes - our market is also pretty sure. The likelyhood is between 3% and 0.01% percent.
Currently you would get more than 20times your money back if you predict a decrease:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-on-next-change/
most likely is a difficulty around 36B. That is more or less currently 50/50 if it is above or under.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-36b/
Currently you would get more than 20times your money back if you predict a decrease:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/difficulty-will-decrease-on-next-change/
most likely is a difficulty around 36B. That is more or less currently 50/50 if it is above or under.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-36b/
We're seeing the effect of how the price affects difficulty. Low price has caused people to buy fewer miners and/or turn them off. My 2 J/GH miners are idle ATM until the price goes way up or I need some heat this winter.
The next diff jump should be small, I really do not see it going negative.
Already got a little cold where I am at. My power bill is gonna be going wayyyyy down with no AC running.
We're seeing the effect of how the price affects difficulty. Low price has caused people to buy fewer miners and/or turn them off. My 2 J/GH miners are idle ATM until the price goes way up or I need some heat this winter.
I'd say it's definitely possible if the price keeps decreasing.
amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd. I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.
Not really that amazing... cheap power ($0.01-$0.03) still proves to turn a profit even if the price of BTC stays at $285 with 10% jumps. Manufacturers with access to both cheap hardware and cheap power can continue adding gear and still make profit for quite some time yet.yeah true. if asicminer and bitmaintech can build s-3's and long tubes for cheap and pay under 3 cents a kwatt diff can go 3x before they really get hurt.
if they put a 1th on line in their mine for 150 usd it runs a profit. even at 250 usd a coin. I think both asic miner and bitmaintech can do the chart below in house
amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd. I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.
Not really that amazing... cheap power ($0.01-$0.03) still proves to turn a profit even if the price of BTC stays at $285 with 10% jumps. Manufacturers with access to both cheap hardware and cheap power can continue adding gear and still make profit for quite some time yet.
amazing that people are adding gear as price is now under 300 usd. I purchased 1 coin today. My new idea is buy a coin a day as long as price keeps dropping. I am now close to the most coins I have ever had on hand.
I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %
Why do you think it will spike?
s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.
more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.
Not talking a big gain like 10 %
look at the sales here
https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ
I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :
I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
I count 8 paid for on 10-4-2014 that comes to around 180 units that is 360th which is not 1 or 2 percent ,
but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line brings it to 290 units of about 580th .
580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.
but they have hashnest and it is more then 4ph and growing.
asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap .
which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.
Looks like you were right
s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.
more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.
Not talking a big gain like 10 %
more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.
Not talking a big gain like 10 %
Looks as if your prediction is coming true.
Hash Rate 301,530,044.97 GH/s
over 50ph with a flip of a switch!
LE: now at 315,314,275.60 GH/s
over 50ph with a flip of a switch!
LE: now at 315,314,275.60 GH/s
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