Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease) - page 4.

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Quote from: xstr8guy on October 05, 2014, 03:23:20 AM

Quote from: freedomno1 on October 05, 2014, 02:13:58 AM

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

That's true up to a point. But miners are like speculators, they'll keep running their gear at a loss with hopes that the price of BTC will rebound.

I'm mining at a loss with BTC hovering at ~$300 but I haven't shut anything off that's 1w/GHs or less. And I'll keep running for a couple of more weeks to a month unless BTC dumps under $200... then everything goes in the trash, lol.

Jeebus, this sucks though! Please Jeebus, can we have another Thanksgiving miracle this year? Cheesy

I sure hope so
Otherwise were going back to the 250 dollar peak and thats really testing the waters of 2011
Means one hell of a rise though when the market gets back to snuff and adjusts from all that downward pressure.

On the bright side more hash in new gear to offset the price
Be interesting to see how the mining gear companies react to it

xstr8guy

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Quote from: freedomno1 on October 05, 2014, 02:13:58 AM

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

That's true up to a point. But miners are like speculators, they'll keep running their gear at a loss with hopes that the price of BTC will rebound.

I'm mining at a loss with BTC hovering at ~$300 but I haven't shut anything off that's 1w/GHs or less. And I'll keep running for a couple of more weeks to a month unless BTC dumps under $200... then everything goes in the trash, lol.

Jeebus, this sucks though! Please Jeebus, can we have another Thanksgiving miracle this year? Cheesy

freedomno1

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Well price is starting to factor in now as well
We might see a decrease after all because people are starting to go offline with older gear
Off set by some new gear but maybe at a rate less than whats going off either way this will be small

skuser

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Don't forget you are working with variance (luck) here, so the difficulty can change +/- 3% without any hashrate change, just by probability of finding blocks...

This is what I am talking about: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hash-rate-spikes-and-difficulty-analysis-619438

xstr8guy

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I'm currently seeing 0% as of this moment and there are still 4 more days to go. And the block find rate is now 7.06 per hour.

It's going up.

TheJuice

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As of 2014-10-05 02:10:00: 702 more blocks need to be found before 2014-10-09 21:18:02 for it to increased in difficulty.

4 days 19 hours 8 minutes. That's 9.84 minutes a block. or 59.04 minutes per 6 blocks. Currently we are doing 59.8 mins p[er 6 blocks over the last 504. It's going to be VERY close. A few more % in real hasrate have to be added in the last day or so to make up for it. Otherwise it's going down.

philipma1957

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Quote from: xstr8guy on October 04, 2014, 04:13:51 PM

...

Retail miners make up just a small portion of the hashrate these days. In my opinion, it's useless to use as a basis for predictions. Someone like Bitfury just has to flip the "on" switch for a new DC or two and the difficulty jumps another 20%.

not exactly but close enough.

I suspect that they could add 20th with ease. for 3 or 4 diff jumps alone.

The problem big data center/builders have is not adding gear. it is adding fiat price to the btc itself.

I have mined 10 dollar coins in early jan of 2013 I hit the runup to 240usd in april 2013 I hit the runup to 1100 in nov 2013.

These companies need to runup btc price not btc diff to make money.

we need to see what happens with diff

as the btc to usd is sinking close to the 300 dollar level

xstr8guy

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Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 03:44:50 PM

Quote from: TheJuice on October 04, 2014, 03:34:57 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 03:10:58 PM

Quote from: mmeijeri on October 04, 2014, 02:29:47 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 02:25:35 PM

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.

more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.

Not talking a big gain like 10 %

look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
I count 8 paid for on 10-4-2014 that comes to around 180 units that is 360th which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line brings it to 290 units of about 580th .

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

but they have hashnest and it is more then 4ph and growing.

asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap .

which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.

Retail miners make up just a small portion of the hashrate these days. In my opinion, it's useless to use as a basis for predictions. Someone like Bitfury just has to flip the "on" switch for a new DC or two and the difficulty jumps another 20%.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: TheJuice on October 04, 2014, 03:34:57 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 03:10:58 PM

Quote from: mmeijeri on October 04, 2014, 02:29:47 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 02:25:35 PM

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.

more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.

Not talking a big gain like 10 %

look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
I count 8 paid for on 10-4-2014 that comes to around 180 units that is 360th which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line brings it to 290 units of about 580th .

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

but they have hashnest and it is more then 4ph and growing.

asicminer is selling the long tubes pretty cheap .

which is why I can see a 1+2% jump.

TheJuice

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Activity: 843

Merit: 608

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 03:10:58 PM

Quote from: mmeijeri on October 04, 2014, 02:29:47 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 02:25:35 PM

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.

more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.

Not talking a big gain like 10 %

look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
I count 8 paid for on 10-4-2014 that comes to around 180 units that is 360th which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line brings it to 290 units of about 580th .

580 th is nothing these days. thats <0.5% increase.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: mmeijeri on October 04, 2014, 02:29:47 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 02:25:35 PM

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

s-4's in transit from bitmaintech to miners will come back on the network.

more then 1 or 2 percent of the network is in transit to new s-4 owners.

Not talking a big gain like 10 %

look at the sales here

https://blockchain.info/address/1QB8Ds5KbGYBLQa5RyDQ2sVUeSKWf7qgkZ

I count hundreds not delivered by the dates :

I count 72 paid for on 9-30-2014
I count 57 paid for on 10-1-2014
I count 25 paid for on 10-2-2014
I count 17 paid for on 10-3-2014
I count 8 paid for on 10-4-2014 that comes to around 180 units that is 360th which is not 1 or 2 percent ,

but I think most of the sept 29th orders are not on line brings it to 290 units of about 580th .

mmeijeri

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 500

Martijn Meijering

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 04, 2014, 02:25:35 PM

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

Why do you think it will spike?

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4256

Merit: 8551

'The right to privacy matters'

I think will will spike the last 2-3 days and go to +1 or +2 %

TheJuice

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Activity: 843

Merit: 608

Quote from: Grix on October 04, 2014, 04:09:49 AM

2016 blocks average right now suggests a -3% adjustments, and only five days to go. I'd say that yes, by now there is a pretty big chance the difficulty will actually go down. For that not to happen the hashrate needs to see a sudden increase pretty soon and sustained for the rest of the difficulty period.

Betting sites have it around a 50% either way. It's going to be close.

nocroom

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Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: xstr8guy on October 04, 2014, 02:36:32 AM

It's really sad that ASICs can't do Folding@Home. We'd cure cancer in a week if we could switch our gear over to Folding instead of mining, lol.

no kidding

Grix

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Activity: 536

Merit: 500

2016 blocks average right now suggests a -3% adjustments, and only five days to go. I'd say that yes, by now there is a pretty big chance the difficulty will actually go down. For that not to happen the hashrate needs to see a sudden increase pretty soon and sustained for the rest of the difficulty period.

Feneusens

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Merit: 250

Quote from: RawDog on October 02, 2014, 03:09:24 PM

Will this period be the first in modern times where the difficulty goes down? We look to be possibly on a path to a difficulty decrease this time.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

No, because BFL just started his mining factory again...

xstr8guy

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It's really sad that ASICs can't do Folding@Home. We'd cure cancer in a week if we could switch our gear over to Folding instead of mining, lol.

freedomno1

legendary

Activity: 1806

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Learning the troll avoidance button :)

Well a difficulty decrease isn't that bad considering Bitcoins is hitting 35 Billion right now
Some sort of stabilization might actually make mining more attractive again
Sometime in the future of course or it might slow down the arms race or perhaps central mining centers kind of tricky to tell the trend transition going on here.

xstr8guy

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Glow Stick Dance!

Quote from: nocroom on October 03, 2014, 11:51:19 PM

so what now, mine other coins ?

All other POW coins are complete crap... or will soon become crap when the new generation of Scrypt ASICs start jacking-up the difficulty.

Mining is dead (or dying) for every coin.

Topic: Negative Difficulty (Difficulty DEcrease) - page 4. (Read 7550 times)