Topic: New diff thread Jan 27th to Feb 11 (-5.73%) to (+0.09%) (Read 7284 times)
bumped to put in time order.
okay suchmoon checked in will lock very soon.
new thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-diff-thread-feb-9-to-feb-this-has-a-promo-for-best-guess-950472
new thread
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/new-diff-thread-feb-9-to-feb-this-has-a-promo-for-best-guess-950472
The difficulty increase 3,182,542,067 equates to roughly the OVERALL network difficulty only 12 months ago 
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Nobody wins unfortunately due to this:
The good news is that the next cycle will have a 0.2 BTC bounty. I'll post the slightly revised rules when the new thread opens.
Quote
To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change.
The good news is that the next cycle will have a 0.2 BTC bounty. I'll post the slightly revised rules when the new thread opens.
and it was (+7.71%) not sure if we have a winner. I think buyandhold was closest at + 5.99% and that was more then 1% off.
As I understand suchmoon's promo the new guess will be .1+.1
I will leave this open a bit for suchmoon to check in..
I know those two last attempts were a little bit past the deadline but I'm going to count them in because the site was down for quite a while. Next time I'm going to include some verbiage in the rules to make it fair for everyone. So here is the final list:
railzand -3.00%
BTCish -2.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%
alh +1.95%
skuser +2.00%
SimplisticStu +0.75%
buyandhold +5.99%
armedmilitia +3.00%
klondike_bar +1.55%
tss +4.80%
philipma1957 +4.09%
Let me know if I missed anything. No more entries will be eligible for the bounty, but please don't stop estimating/speculating/guessing.
I'd say +5% this time around. but a decrease next time if BTC stays below $250.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s
As I understand suchmoon's promo the new guess will be .1+.1
I will leave this open a bit for suchmoon to check in..
Thank you. 0.1 BTC for the most accurate difficulty guess, no strings attached, just some basic rules:
Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015, about 5 days from now and roughly 1/3 into the cycle.
A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.
If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted.
To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.
Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.
To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.
To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.
Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that - just covering my ass I get sick/drunk etc.
I think that's it, if I missed something obvious let me know.
Edit: clarified that it's "within 1 percentage point" (not 1 percent, which might be confusing). So if diff change is -2.45% for example, you must have guessed between -3.45 and -1.45 to be eligible for a win.
Edit2: added a link to bitcoinwisdom.com difficulty page. Slightly clarified eligibility.
Edit3: as suggested by philipma1957 I'm reviewing the situation with multiple winners. I have added a condition that in case of duplicates only the first occurrence will be considered.
Deadline is 16:00 (4 PM) UTC February 1st, 2015, about 5 days from now and roughly 1/3 into the cycle.
A guess is a percentage with up to two decimal places (I'll round it if you put more than two) posted here in this thread. No PMs or posts elsewhere or anything else. Must include a "+" or "-" sign. No special "enrollment" wording or format is needed for the bounty - just post like you would normally do, as long as it's clear that you're predicting the next diff change percentage.
If you guess multiple times only the last one (not the best one) submitted before the deadline will be counted.
To win you must guess within 1 percentage point of the actual change. The guess that is nearest to the actual change wins. If nobody is within 1 percentage point the bounty will roll over to the next cycle.
Your number must be unique. If you would like your guess to be considered for the bounty please review previous guesses and make sure your number is different from all others. I will try to warn if I see duplicates but if a duplicate slips through only the first member who posted that number will be eligible for the bounty.
To determine the winner I will use the percentage shown by bitcoinwisdom (table at the bottom of the page) after the next adjustment.
To collect the bounty the winner will need to PM me their BTC address and the TX ID will be posted publicly.
Allow up to 2-3 days after the next adjustment for me to pay out, although I should be able to do it much sooner than that - just covering my ass I get sick/drunk etc.
I think that's it, if I missed something obvious let me know.
Edit: clarified that it's "within 1 percentage point" (not 1 percent, which might be confusing). So if diff change is -2.45% for example, you must have guessed between -3.45 and -1.45 to be eligible for a win.
Edit2: added a link to bitcoinwisdom.com difficulty page. Slightly clarified eligibility.
Edit3: as suggested by philipma1957 I'm reviewing the situation with multiple winners. I have added a condition that in case of duplicates only the first occurrence will be considered.
I know those two last attempts were a little bit past the deadline but I'm going to count them in because the site was down for quite a while. Next time I'm going to include some verbiage in the rules to make it fair for everyone. So here is the final list:
railzand -3.00%
BTCish -2.00%
mavericklm -0.01%
notlist3d -2.50%
tarmi -1.24%
Kexkey -0.27%
SunnyIgor -3.20%
wpt1wpt1 +3.20%
stonerider +0.10%
davejh +5.50%
tsm13 -2.24%
alh +1.95%
skuser +2.00%
SimplisticStu +0.75%
buyandhold +5.99%
armedmilitia +3.00%
klondike_bar +1.55%
tss +4.80%
philipma1957 +4.09%
Let me know if I missed anything. No more entries will be eligible for the bounty, but please don't stop estimating/speculating/guessing.
I'd say +5% this time around. but a decrease next time if BTC stays below $250.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s
Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s
Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s
Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s
Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s
Looking like a little more change then it was looking like:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,295,845,423 (+7.32%)
Adjust time: After 70 Blocks, About 10.9 hours
Bitcoin Difficulty: 41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,295,845,423 (+7.32%)
Adjust time: After 70 Blocks, About 10.9 hours
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.
What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?
diff of 45.0 and btc at 160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at 140 I am good $3.00 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good $ 1.00 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down $1.65 a day
so I could stand diff of 45-50 and btc at 180 usd before I start to sweat.
So you still have some margin. If you mine at a loss, you are still acquiring bitcoins with a premium, up to 3% premium is fine.
yeah I should be able to hang in until June when my summer power rates hit.
What I usually do it sell 60 days early so Summer rates are June 15th I need to sell my in house around april 1st.
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.
What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?
diff of 45.0 and btc at 160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at 140 I am good $3.00 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good $ 1.00 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down $1.65 a day
so I could stand diff of 45-50 and btc at 180 usd before I start to sweat.
So you still have some margin. If you mine at a loss, you are still acquiring bitcoins with a premium, up to 3% premium is fine.
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.
What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?
diff of 45.0 and btc at 160 I am good $ 5.50 a day
diff of 45.0 and btc at 140 I am good $3.00 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 160 I am good $3.50 a day
diff of 50 and btc at 140 I am good $ 1.00 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 160 I am good $0.34 a day
diff of 60 and btc at 140 I am down $1.65 a day
so I could stand diff of 45-50 and btc at 180 usd before I start to sweat.
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.
What price do you need to break even not considering the cost of the equipement but just maintenance costs?
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
close enough to true. btw if we see-saw for a few months time up and down 5% with stable btc at 225 or so it does not kill my setup price wise.
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
We had a decreasing difficulty last time and now we will just return to the last difficulty.
willing to share my winnings if someone willing to unplug 40 ph/s for a couple days. kthxbai
found a nice chart 144 = 0%
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
Jan 28 --------163 Jan 13 ------- 124
Jan 29 --------165 Jan 14 ------- 152
Jan 30 --------142 Jan 15 ------- 141
Jan 31 --------162 Jan 16 ------- 145
Feb 1 ------- 156 Jan 17 ------- 136
Feb 2 -------- 154 Jan 18 ------- 157
Feb 3 -------- 133 Jan 19 ------- 141
Feb 4 -------- 158 Jan 20 ------- 122
Feb 5 -------- 159 Jan 21 ------- 146
Feb 6 -------- 171 Jan 22 ------- 138
Feb 7 -------- 162 Jan 23 ------- 121
Feb 8 -------- Jan 24 ------- 129
Feb 9 -------- Jan 25 ------- 124
Feb 10 ------- Jan 26 ------- 129
As you can see every day has been over 144 but Jan31st
Last adjustment 4 days over 144 10 under
note blocks made on feb 3 nice drop.
http://btc.blockr.io/charts
back up on the 4th
You can't quite chart perfectly with the above since the 27th is straddling both diff numbers
but 1233 blocks were done in 8 days 'normal' is 8 x 144 = 1152 so we are up 7.03% like I said we are missing part of Jan 27th and
today feb 5
on Jan 27th we made 145 blocks I do not remember the exact time we switched difficulty but if you include all of Jan 27
we go to 1378 blocks in 9 days normal is 9 x 144 = 1296 so we are up 6.32%
And 1 more big one 159
means 1537 in 10 days this is around 6.73% if you count Jan 27th
and the biggest number in a few weeks 171
this is 1708 block in 11 days = 155.27 blocks a day or (+7.82%).
What does it mean?
I would think a big boy like KNC or Bitfury is bringing a plant on line. Others may want to say variance but not this time.
[/quote] feb 7th was 162
that is 1870 in 12 days = 155.833 or (+ 8.21%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 41,272,873,895
Estimated Next Difficulty: 44,240,309,725 (+7.19%)
Adjust time: After 209 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?): 330,928,961 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.0 minutes
6 blocks: 56.0 minutes
Updated: 23:20 (5.6 minutes ago)
+ 7 or +8 are both high we look to be very close to 44.7 - 44.9
either one will be an all time high
Looks to me like suchmoon won't be paying out anything at this time. I think there's only one member that has a chance at this, and that's if things slow down some in the next 36 hours. If this is actually variance, then we shouldn't see another big increase after this upcoming one in a day or so. While I am no math wizard this seems like a real increase, not just statistical jitter.
The hashrate for the last 502 blocks has a high variance but the difficulty will increase in 1.5 days, it will be about what it was before the last change.
Looks to me like suchmoon won't be paying out anything at this time. I think there's only one member that has a chance at this, and that's if things slow down some in the next 36 hours. If this is actually variance, then we shouldn't see another big increase after this upcoming one in a day or so. While I am no math wizard this seems like a real increase, not just statistical jitter.
It's gonna be tough all round with BTC holding in the low $200's and diff looking like it's going up again
Its even tougher for ppl holding their miners hoping to get ROI.
Phillipma's opinion does not count because he got "free" electricity with his rent. I feel bad for ppl who just bought some miners tho....
however, it is a good time to get *some* used gear at good prices. I pay $0.09 USD for nighttime and $0.13 in the daytime/peak, so am still somewhat competitive.
and im hoping to move into ~$70/kw/month colocation very soon
I am not aware of $70 colocation. Some come close, but most with long contracts.
You probably would be better off by selling 0.5-0.65GH/w gear anyway and go for 0.2-0.3GH/w gear if and when it shows up
so they can survive at ~220$ a btc for 3 weeks....
Difficulty is a joke right now with the recent price slump, where's all the hash power coming from and how are they affording to operate?
well if it is not variance and it is hash, then it is a major company using 'special' gear
Say bitfury adding 30-50 ph.
In theory they should be building a major plant in the north of Finland or maybe Iceland.
Difficulty is a joke right now with the recent price slump, where's all the hash power coming from and how are they affording to operate?
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