Topic: New Diff thread Mar 8 to Mar 22. - page 2. (Read 8398 times)

Something is up with the spreadsheet. Getting an Cannot divide by 0 error. Either way.

Less than 100 blocks to go !!!!!!!!!!

We have had a number of nearly 1 hour blocks today, this is probably what is causing this, plus the fact that the last several days have seen much fewer blocks then we should have.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

is at (-3.36%) falling like a rock!!

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

is at  (-1.13%)

127 blocks to go

btc = 260usd

we are 66 blocks behind the pace


1889 instead of 1955.  we may have a carry over. frankly a -3.36% drop would be very welcome

I'd say between 0 and -1%, but I'm always wrong so whoever is on either site of this interval has a good chance.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

is at (-1.50%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

is at  (-0.98%)

171 blocks to go

btc = 260usd

my -1.11% is in real contention

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,846,395,019 (-1.23%)
Adjust time:    After 210 Blocks, About 1.5 days

Price seems steady around 260 right now. 

Looks like if I want to win this round I better restart that 10PH that's been sitting cold for the last few weeks. Gotta be careful though since I don't want to overshoot.... 

I think it will be great for people like me who mine as a hobby, we can pick up the older gear at way reduced costs.  Probably at that point you won't be able to give an S1 away, an S3 will be in the S1 price range, and S5 half of what they are today.  Makes that more efficient gear much more affordable to someone not looking to turn a profit.

C'mon -1.51-1.75..   

The day is almost over:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,569,405,256 (-1.81%)
Adjust time:    After 265 Blocks, About 1.9 days

Price at around 260

I agree, and in fact difficulty began to plateau even before the dramatic price drops in October and January. It really started in July, when double-digit increases stopped being the norm. There were exceptions when SP, Bitmain, or AM made some big deliveries, but other than that we've been pretty much flat.

And I doubt that there's much in the pipeline right now. SP has hinted at a new gen of chips, but their mantra is to be patient. It looks like Bitmain won't release a new chip until 3Q at the earliest, and AM from what I can tell is done or close to it. Unless there's a dramatic price increase, the days of double-digit difficulty increases are pretty much over. It would take over 33 Ph/s to be added to the network during the next difficulty period for a 10% increase.

Moreover, and I've been saying this for a while now, there's a finite supply of "cheap" electricity. There's a reason electricity costs what it does in most populated places. There's demand for it. As big farms move to remote locations for cheap power, the demand and cost will eventually go up as well. That's how markets tend to work.

That said, it's a good time for smaller miners, especially if the price recovers near-term. If we move back up to $500 by the summer, difficulty will be slow to catch up. It takes time to manufacture, and right now I don't think there's all that much in the pipeline. So if the price increases, difficulty will lag by at least a month or two.

I  would agree on waiting on next gen gear with the "big boys".  It will be intresting once birfury, bitmain, and SP have some new chips what happens.

Well said Philip like always.

Im pretty sure right now the company are waiting to see the next 2 or 3 difficulty jump to see if they want to invest more or not.
I will be more than happy if we can stay between 44 and 49. That will give us a break and use our miner a little bit more.
The last 2 years was a race to buy, mine, sell the newest miners.

As for the price, if we stay at this diff, I think we could see a stable grown. Less fluctuation will also help people to get in Bitcoin.

Will see but right now, Im happy with the -1% 

I still think the big guys are holding back from dropping 3 or 4 million on a new chip super farm.

Basically Bitfury made a lot of money and then shut down gear.
While they can make a .25 watt /gh machine
I think they are afraid to commit the 3-6 million need to make a 20-40ph farm at the current btc price level.

This is a good thing. I am hoping for 11-18 months between gear.

the s-1 was nov-dec 2013----------------------------- 2 watt gear
the s-3 was june- july 2014--------------------------- 0.8 watt gear
the s-5 was nov-dec   2014--------------------------- 0.5 watt gear

the s-6 or  s-7 has been mentioned for  later then june 2015 I read this  here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10826237


So say the s-6 comes out in July and is 0.38 or 0.4 watt gear
Then in sept the s-7 comes out at .3 watts
We are seeing a mature asic industry unfold.

This reminds me of the intel cpu's once sandy bridge arrived pc's are so good  the next two gen's pushed us into little mini pc's
Anyone with an i7 2600 cpu in a desktop has no need for an i7 4790 desktop.(90% true not 100%)

So to drive sales the pc industry is pushing tablets and mobile gear over desktops.

So if you have a .4 watt asic replace a .5 watt asic  what is your gain?
I do wonder how this plays out.

 I would not mind rocket to the moon on btc to 2000usd. It would wake everyone  up.

 I think we wander around in the 200-300 price slot and in the 44-49 diff range for months to come. I can live with that.

Interesting time in mining.  It looks like we lose around the difficulty we gained on Mar 8th.

I just hope BTC goes back to 300's in a reasonable timeframe.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=204080645

reads (-1.72%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  reads (-1.76%)


328 blocks to go

price is 255 to 262 usd


No one is really pushing truly new more efficient gear.

So we kind of stay in a stable clam area for the time being.

The spreadsheet is saying -1.75%... come on, just .. need .. .01 more % ...

A small update from bitcoinwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,427,554,951
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,640,444,220 (-1.66%)
Adjust time:    After 337 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):    331,044,027 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
   
Updated:    10:25 (4.2 minutes ago)

Looks like it's almost certain to be a difficulty decrease this time around.

I wish BTC would drop like LTC difficulty.  Thought some in here might find intresting just as miners don't mean to go to off topic.

But:

Litecoin Difficulty:    40,766
Estimated Next Difficulty:    35,077 (-13.95%)
Adjust time:    After 24 Blocks, About 1.3 hours

LTC to be losing around 14 percent hash.  I just hope it's not hosting/data centers switching to BTC mining gear.

 That's why they call it a spec thread. We get to spec all we want plus we get a shot at a  free prize.

LOL