Topic: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th - page 2. (Read 3386 times)

I think the diff jumps no longer reflect the reality of mining .

Some companies are building pure data center machines.  They can put gear online when they want.  Lets pick a player like asicminer. They sell the tube  an 850gh miner.  

If you buy a 10 pack  which is 8.5th  they assemble it  and ship it anywhere in the world for 7.9 btc > this means the following  well under 1 btc a th  maybe the build cost for them is as low as .2btc a th   so for 1000x or 200btc   they can build a 1 ph asic machine.  add another 50btc and for 250 btc they have 1ph  most likely I am wrong it is cheaper then that.  well 250 btc =  about 120,000 usd .

  at 10% diff and 6 cents for power that 120,000 turns into  a profit on day 21.   so more more more more some would say.

 I say no the top 5 builders can all do close to this  it is in their best interest to keep growth under 10%  

 even if it cost them 250,000 usd to setup a 1ph farm

  diff jumps at 10%
power is 8 cents a kwatt
 they burn at 1 watt a gh

 at todays numbers of 480 a btc


 that 250,000 usd turns into plus 1614 in 53 days on day 100 they are plus

127000usd .  it is truly in their power and interests to limit growth to under 10%.

Now 10% of the current network is  around 25ph  so the top companies  need to limit their production to 20ph and let the tiny companies eat up the other 5ph.

Of that 20ph  they can sell 5ph to regular miners and run 15ph more each diff jump  for their data centers .

 It is pretty much a winning formula for them.  So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and  do controlled growth.

if you still have not enough:
http://nextdifficulty.com/
 

I was surprised that the last rise was only 8.75%. Looks like a big farm was waiting for a low diff entry point.

hash rised a lot around the last adjustment https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

  Yeah  I think I will do a new one every diff jump.  You can always put in info since you can serve as a hedge for some miners if they have an understanding of what you offer and how to use it.


To anyone new to mining. Diff jumps are part of the game . They affect your mining gears power to pull in coins.

Mining has had 

The Cpu stage  slow miners lowest diff
The Gpu stage faster miners higher diif
The Fpga stage faster miners higher diff

The Asic stage the fastest miners with the highest diff ever. Many of us feel this asic stage is maturing and power savings is not getting much better thus diff jumps are slowing to a 7-9% average.

Others think the above is true but monster data centers will grow ones with very low power costs  this will continue to grow the network at higher rates  maybe 11-15% or more.

Time will tell so follow these threads and learn to form your own opinions on net work's growth rate.

Bottom line is we guess at it and those that guess a little better will profit more.

I am still in the 7% to 9% camp for diff growth.

Now for btc price vs the usd that is another thread.

thanks for the thread.

Lets through in some more number:

Bitcoinwisdom:
32,708,058,763 (+9.65%)

https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php
47,080,267,790

http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php
+9.79%

http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history
43,849,707,692

This huge numbers are calculated on a very little time frame - I would not trust them - however, it is always interesting see them converging against the real one.

As always: we have opened predictions on the next dif.
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/


here you can see how it turns our last time: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/

http://bitcoincharts.com/


Difficulty   29829733124
Estimated   29899735872 in 2013 blks

a .23% jump



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   29,829,733,124
Estimated Next Difficulty:   32,687,713,301 (+9.58%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 13.8 days

I start a new one every time there is a new diff jump.

I find these two tend to meet in the middle so 0.23 - 9.58  would be about  4.905 percent.


the last thread

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/hope-for-diff-increases-as-bitcoincharts-0007-percent-jump-predicted-765956

  bitcoincharts = .0007 percent

btcwisdom = 14.78  percent

middle = 7.43 percent  I said under 7 percent   real number was 8.75 percent.

It should interesting to see if the under closer to the middle trend continues.