Topic: Newest Diff thread April 19th to May 1st-Closed for picks!! - page 11. (Read 7488 times)

This difficulty was reduced April 19, 2015 to 47,610,564,513.  On Apr 17, 2014 the difficulty was 6,978,842,650.  That means your hash rate, from April 17, 2014 to April 19, 2015 needed to increase 6.8 times to mine the same amount of coin.  I plan on getting out WAAAAAAAAY ahead of the difficulty before the blocks halve and also have electricity rates of 3.4 cents per kWH to make the block halving much easier to bare if the price of bitcoin is the same as what it is today ($ 238.00).

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 17 2014 was 6,978,842,650 [BTC-e $485.58].  On Apr 19, 2015 it was 47,610,564,513 [BTC-e $220.43].  That means the difficulty rose 6.8 times more than what it was a year prior. [Your hash rate would have to be 6.8 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Apr. 05 2014 was 6,119,726,089 [BTC-e $467.78].  On Apr 05 2015 it was 49,446,390,688 [BTC-e $257.01].  That means the difficulty rose 8.07 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 8.07 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Mar 24 2014 was 5,006,860,589 [BTC-e $588.71].  On Mar 22 2015 it was 46,717,549,645 [BTC-e $266.36].  That means the difficulty rose 9.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 9.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Feb 17 2014 was 3,129,573,175 [BTC-e $612.00].  On Feb 22 2015 it was 46,684,376,317 [BTC-e $230.23].  That means the difficulty rose 14.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 14.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 24 2014 was 2,193,847,870 [BTC-e $774.98].  On Jan 27 2015 it was 41,272,873,895 [BTC-e $252.58].  That means the difficulty rose 18 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 18 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 02 2014 was 1,418,481,395 [BTC-e $782.00].  On Dec 30 2014 it was 40,640,955,017 [BTC-e $308.86].  That means the difficulty rose 29 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 29 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Nov 29 2013   was 707,408,283 [BTC-e $1,019.60].  On Dec 02 2014 it was 40,007,470,271 [BTC-e $377.50].  That means the difficulty rose 56.5 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 56.5 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Oct 26 2013 was 390,928,788 [BTC-e $171.37].  On Oct 23 2014 it was 35,985,640,265 [BTC-e $354.17].  That means the difficulty rose 92 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 92 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Sep 25 2013 was 148,819,200 [BTC-e $122.55].  On Sep 25 2014 it was 34,661,425,924 [BTC-e $401.91].  That means the difficulty rose 232.9 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 232.9 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Aug 24 2013 was 65,750,060 [BTC-e $106.34].  On Aug 31 2014 it was 27,428,630,902 [BTC-e $475.90].  That means the difficulty rose 417.1 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 417.1 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jul 22 2013 was 31,256,961 [BTC-e $84.50].  On Jul 25 2014 it was 18,736,441,558 [BTC-e $594.47].  That means the difficulty rose 599.4 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 599.4 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

Bitcoin difficulty on Jun 29 2013 was 21,335,329 [BitStamp $88.83].  On Jun 29 2014 it was 16,818,461,371 [BitStamp $599.86].  That means the difficulty rose 788.3 times more than what it was a year prior.  [Your hash rate would have to be 788.3 times more than what it was this time last year to mine the same amount of coin.]

The numbers above reveal at one time we had as much as a 788.3 times increase in difficulty over a year's time.  That number has reduced to 6.8 times more than what we had the year prior.  The amount it increases year over year is being reduced every difficulty change quite significantly.  I think now is the best time to get into mining than this time last year.  I just started myself on September 22nd last year.  By September this year, the difficulty might be around 64,000,000,000.  That would be less than 2 times what it was September of 2014.  

Like I've told others, I think I got in at the right time.  I started out with 7 TH/s September 22, 2014.  I ought to have 210 TH/s by September this year.  That would be 30 times what I started out with September a year ago.  However, the difficulty will have only come a little shy of two times year over year.  I'm hoping to have 20 times that number in September of 2016 at 4,200 TH/s.  And again, the difficulty might be 2 or 3 times what it was the year over year for September 2016 but I will have done a 20 times increase.  I'll stop for a while somewhere in between 5,000 and 10,000 TH/s to recoup all of my investment and then some.  Then start again...

If you look at the numbers below [curtesy of https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty] you can see what I see.  For example:

On May 24, 2014 the difficulty was 10,455,720,138.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 100.4 Billion this coming May 24th of 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Jun 29, 2014 the difficulty was 16,818,461,371.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 160.8 Billion on June 29, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.
On Aug 31, 2014 the difficulty was 27,428,630,902.  Does one really believe it will be close to 10 times this at 270.4 Billion on August 31, 2015?  I seriously doubt it.

Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s

Yes, there is plenty of talk of the 3rd generation chips (rigs) coming out by the Summer of this year (2015).  The power efficiency and hash rate of these 3rd generation rigs remains to be seen.  Will 3rd generation rigs encourage miners who stopped mining to start back up again because of their power costs being above 15 cents per kWH?  More than likely.  Especially, if the price of bitcoin remains at the $235.00 to $335.00 level.  

If bitcoin price is higher than $335.00 by the end of November, 2015, we could definitely see more miners wanting to come back into the fray.  The only issue is will they be able to buy these 3rd generation rigs from those who will manufacture them?  The demand for power efficient 3rd generation rigs could be quite high.  The 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 will be a very interesting time of year indeed for the miners.

Coming to end of first night of new difficulty slowly moving up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,644,709,990 (-2.03%)
Adjust time:    After 1936 Blocks, About 13.3 days

Without a price spike, we're going negative. You heard it here first.

please remember no picks till tues.


As a courtesy   I will allow this one to be placed on hold.  Please everyone hold back for about 200 blocks or so.


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


 shows 145 blocks for 4-19 which is pretty much 0.0% to .7 %

I'll take 2.01-2.25% this time.

Methinks once the altcoin hash comes back the difficulty will climb.

That is why the idea of using the 300 -1000 zone for your pick makes more sense.
Right now we are getting a shit coin rush on nice hash so rates are pretty low.  by the 300th block that may go by by and we get a better idea of the diff guess.

Going past 1000 blocks or roughly the  26th of april would make it too easy.

so 300-1000 blocks kind of works.

This is chart of last difficulty estimates evolution. Bitcoinwisdom is mostly wrong at the start due to wrong algo. Closest estimate had nextdifficulty.com - it is using last 1000 blocks for estimations.

yeah tues at block 300 there will be a rush, but waiting until block 600 or so could still be smart.

There will be a big rush to get the choice positions.

Well it saves me a lot of time and far less confusion.  Plus we all get a chance to see some trending


http://btc.blockr.io/charts 

 the april 19th is not up yet should be 144 and will be from both adjustments

the april 20th will be purely this adjustment.

I like the idea of waiting after the first 300 blocks before taking the guesses, without switches.  Simple and more thoughtful than gambling.

That being said, I think the down trend will continue with temperatures warming up and btc price not going up...

Bitwisdom already went up a decent amount with it being so new:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,410,388,208 (-2.52%)
Adjust time:    After 1973 Blocks, About 13.6 days
Hashrate(?):    337,500,209 GH/s

there is over clocking and down clocking factors.  I just went from 1750gh  to 1985gh via freq change  that is a 13% uptick. the lower difficulty will offset the power efficiency loss of the overclocking. As my watts per gh went from .57 to .60

Well it will be within like a 6% increase or decrease as the only thing that is changing the market is the abundance of used miners.

Nothing new to hit the markets yet. My guess is there might be some hash that comes online and pushes difficulty early but -3 to +3 is where it'll be at.

Unless people want to make 100% pure guess without seeing the current trend.

If the trends continues, this one should be up.  But with summer in the northern hemisphere starting, we could aslo be seeing the beginning of a downturn.  Waiting for 300 blocks is a good idea, no reason to jump the gun.

yeah I think if we delay until block 300 we can all get a feel for it.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is -3.39%

 but it is only 11 blocks in this is based on current and last diff


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,996,464,248 (-3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 2005 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   331,173,351 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   16:0 (2.6 minutes ago)




www.bitcoincharts.com is  at -0.05% or 47582393724  this is more of a real world number


Waiting  until tues is a good idea to do picks.


The slight real world of bitcoincharts makes sense to me since all players did better with the diff change.

I say down, it goes up. I say up, it goes down. I'm going to be more patient this time.

It is nice to see a negative difficulty again last week.  I'm guessing that means were in for a little bit of a positive this week.  Will be interesting to watch.

Some day I we should see some new gear coming online, but with low price of btc I'm still not sure when we will see next gen start taking over.

I am leaving this for revisions and changes. Suchmoon will do a new   promo

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD


are here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10550525




Rule changes are no pick switches.  One pick and  stick with the pick.



Pick between blocks 301 and 1000------------------- subject to revision.

the next reward deadline 2:00 AM UTC, April 26, 2015 as per suchmoon.

I have not made the blue  highlight   set yet.  but the one pick is set.

I am thinking the  wait for 300 block pick for 700blocks  increases spec post and reduces pick posts.

Feel free to spec for a while.  I think we will do new picks starting on the 300th block made .

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-3.40%)  is the next prediction current price is  225 usd.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   45,989,490,939 (-3.40%)
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 14.1 days
Hashrate(?):   332,607,933 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   14:40 (4.5 minutes ago)