Topic: Newest Diff thread April 5 to April 18th - page 8. (Read 7934 times)

gaw miners thought that they can cheat on electric company like they cheated on their clients!

is paycoin still alive?

I don't know if it's the FIRST, but I am 100% certain that it won't be the last! I don't know what kind of assets will have to cover a judgement if the power company wins. GAW might just file for bankruptcy in which case I expect the electric company is just another creditor.

I am convinced it's going to be negative. So I'll take:

-2.51% to -2.75%

Phillip's default/pre-assigned -1.11% may well work out for him this time.

I find it amazing that somebody would decide to rent or otherwise reassign a big chunk of SHA-256 hashing to a a speculative alt-con. And I thought Bitcoin was a risky adventure!

So I guess we have the first mining farm getting sued by their power company for late bills.
Anyone has a stat about how much hashing power gaw had?

http://ia601506.us.archive.org/27/items/gov.uscourts.mssd.88839/gov.uscourts.mssd.88839.docket.html

I think I lot of people don't understand how small bitcoin is.  Our market cap is 240 usd x 14 million coins or 3 billion usd and some change.

I am a middle class usa guy and I can afford to buy 100,000 usd in gear and host it in china .


Lets say I get a deal and I get 333 s-5's for 100,000    that is   333 x 1.15 th or 385 th

  385 th  is 1/1000 of all the hash power in the network.    So I could own 1/1000 of all the current hashpower.


Better yet I rented 1ph last night just to do this photo

that is me controlling 1ph for about 1 hour last nite  that is ⅓ of 1 percent cost was just under .5 btc

I can rent 1 percent of the entire network for about an hour and point it at a non btc pool and drop the difficulty rate for some time.

So if I can rent 1 percent for 1 hour for 1.5 coins  or 375 bucks others can do this.  Did anyone notice that a guy was renting  very big pieces of nice hash say 2ph for 1 day at a time.  over paying to do it. say 0.0115 when it should be 0.0101.

If he pointed 2ph at an alternate coin but a 256 type he lowered the btc network.
If he is the owner of 20ph datacenter  he could be doing this and it could help lower diff rate at a cheap cost.

I am pro if it makes your life easier!

-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151

Thanks for the correction!

A slight case of dyslexia was kicking in, when I typed in the numbers.

Stone

Hopefully that stays low enough.. I don't see the difficulty going up more than 4% but also don't see it dropping more than 6%

last week's adjustment was +5.84

at 628 blocks real number is -3.19

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

bitcoinwisdom has us at +1.4

I for one feel better looking at that -3.19 then looking at the +1.4


granted we are at 600 blocks so the -3.19 may not be corect but it is showing a trend pretty far away from +5.84

vs the 1.4 on bitcoinwisdom which is not that far from +5.84.  I do agree the at the 144 block or 1 day mark it is a meh number.  But at the 4 day mark it has some meaning which only becomes greater as you near the 14 day mark.

Once again, the 'Real number' as extrapolation of current data is absolutely useless before enough time passes (at least 1000 blocks imho). It's like flipping coin twice and extrapolating whatever result to 2048 passes.

Also analyzing block mining in too short intervals (like daily) has no statistical value due to the same reason but I admit it is entertaining and leads to majority of "Who just added/removed 20 PH" topics.

We can also shorten the reward entry period, but that wouldn't really reduce the number of posts. Split into two threads? Not sure if that would work either.

Perhaps Phil could remove/aggregate posts that contain only reward entries and no other content (since the thread is self-moderated) but that would be extra work and would make it harder to resolve any disputes. Same applies to using PMs or some other kind of "off-thread" system for accepting those entries.

I'm open to any suggestions. It's not my intent to derail the thread with the reward but rather get more people interested in how difficulty adjustment works.

Phil I have been loving the google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

With real time and amount it shows it's great.   If I save a copy will it work in my google drive?  Or is there a install guide since it has to work automatically?

Thanks!

i'll take it i should have took a better number a few days back, at the beginning of the thread

the bitmain miners will/are back up so the hash should rise a bit...

pray for another fire? ))

bitfury... nothing from them

sptech nothing

knc nothing. they didn't burn in hell yet!

sfarts nothing

....

pretty quiet

Not all.
First few days yes we all guess and not much else except Phil's analysis and one or two people give reasons.
But once the guessing closes the threads go back to reasons/speculation proper.
Maybe not being able to change guesses would help keep the content level up, help us all decide when to lower voltage, sell off, buy in.

and I bounce back and forth between both of the above opinions.

I liked the pure spec angle we used to do, but the promo got us the google link from jmumich.

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

I think we have a few more contests ,5 counting this one  I can't remember  so 5 more  is a guess.

 When the original funds are gone suchmoon and I will revisit the promo idea.  

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%     


that negative number allows me to decide if I want to sell the last of my gear for my summer mining or hold it.

With NJ price of power shift coming in May I go from 13 cents to 17 cents.

I also go from a 2-3 cents heat benefit in cold weather to a 1 cent heat cost in hot weather ,

So my real numbers are 10.5 in the winter and 18 in the summer.   I need to use much less gear unless diff and price work for me.  Part of the reason I created this thread last year was to get other ideas and have other miners Opinions.

I also saw the trend coming of lower diff jumps and did quite a few  sections or break down of diff adjustment increases.

Bottom line is don't fear the future of cryptocoins plan for it.  this thread helps in its small way. I like to think it does.  although last adjustment did scare me a bit. 

There is still some.  Just the contest has brought a lot of people to it.  Which is not really a bad thing.

Bitwisdom going up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,242,645,979 (+1.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1473 Blocks, About 10.4 days

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

It's had a harder time with luck lately it was very very good.  And it's average is still not bad but 24 hour has been down a few times in last days.

Good news bitwisdom appears to keep going down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,089,150,812 (+1.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1522 Blocks, About 10.8 days

I was mining antpool. After 6 hours I started crying.

variance of + or - 5% is possible.  also clever ddos can hurt hashing we had some brutal ddos attacks around 2 jumps back .

Btw  -1 or -2 is nice for a diff adjustment.