Topic: Newest Diff thread April 5 to April 18th - page 9. (Read 7940 times)

Or we could just not allow changing the picks

As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

So we are doing quite nice  a -3 or more would be pretty good.  Thank you for your work.
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 Dead line is april 12th 2 am utc time .          

 Which is about april 11th 9 pm EST time.

or april 11th 6 pm PST.
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It looks like we will get some changes from the high picks to a negative pick.
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As a suggestion I think the next contest should wait for 84 hours after diff adjustment to begin.
Then stay open for 84 hours.We still get to see 1 weeks of blocks made and the early rush is put off.
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I can see that  if we stay low like neg -2 or -3 or -4 percent all the high picks will switch in a day or 2.
A lot of work for me and a bit of confusion.
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So 14 day period of a block set would be

3 or 4  days of watching no picks---------------- days 1-4

3 or 4 days of picking ---------------------------- days 5-8

then last 6-8 days looking to see the closest--- days 9-14


This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Live sheet is back up (mostly) - shows us -3.73% right now.

Some things aren't working quite right (though I believe the standard difficulty projection is) - I expect everything else to be up by tonight or tomorrow, plus a tweaked experimental projection. Last time the experimental projection was decent over the last week, but I have some ideas to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

got it thanks

your new guess may be a lot better as of today  you are close.

Since everything s taken, I have to go with something optimistic. -2.26 to -2.50.

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !  got it thanks!




list is as follows:



-2.26 to  -  2.50    crazyivan
-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.76 to  -  2.00    sana54210
-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor
-0.01  to -  0.25   Lboss
-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih






 we are filled in solid at  all of the 33 possible ranges   in the   -2.50 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges




and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.50 > lower


  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351234
Total BTC   14.031M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48465610011 in 1566 blks--------- still  neg
 
Network total   310446.855 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.26 / 684 s -------------------- drop in speed



Still negative   at -1.98%    but we are on a downturn in speed

1566 block left

coinbase is at  247 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick   got it thanks

I want to take from -0.01  to -  0.25  %.

you got the pick see above.

+6.26 - +6.50 for me please.

Great thread, I have to get in sooner!

it is early but negative looks possible.

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:




-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian


-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor



-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih





crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 23 possible ranges   in the   +0.01 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges




and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.26


-0.01 to -0.25   is open
-1.76 to -2.00 is open

  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351186
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48988002500 in 1614 blks---------slacking a bit on the pace but still  neg
 
Network total   339595.123 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s -------------------- drop in speed



Still negative   at 0.92%    but we are on a downturn in speed

1614 block left

coinbase is at  256 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick

BitWisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,705,600,566 (+2.55%)
Adjust time:    After 1615 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    351,771,763 GH/s

Not looking as bad as last week.

-0.26 to -0.50

-1.51 to -1.75

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:

-2.01 to -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.26 to  - 1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to - 1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh

-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 23 possible ranges   in the   +0.01to +5.75 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges


+0.26 to 0.50 is left

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351114
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   49001580441 in 1686 blks---------picking up pace but still  neg
 
Network total   383738.151 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.50 / 553 s -------------------- uptick in speed



Still negative   at 0.89%    but we are on an uptick in speed

1686 block left

coinbase is at  255 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick
[/quote]

Don't you mean -1.26 to -1.50

I will take -1.126 to -1.151

I'll take +0.26-0.5.

My apologies on the delay getting the sheet back up, I got caught up on another project. I'll get it up ASAP.

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:

-2.01 to -  2.25  Chris_Sabian

-1.01  to - 1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh


-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall

+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 22 possible ranges   in the   +0.26 to +5.75 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges


+0.26 to 0.50 is left

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351114
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   49001580441 in 1686 blks---------picking up pace but still  neg
 
Network total   383738.151 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.50 / 553 s -------------------- uptick in speed



Still negative   at 0.89%    but we are on an uptick in speed

1686 block left

coinbase is at  255 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick

+0.01% - 0.25%