Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 13.

erk

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Quote from: naRky on October 10, 2013, 07:21:36 AM

Quote from: Puppet on October 10, 2013, 07:11:42 AM

Quote from: naRky on October 10, 2013, 07:04:11 AM

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)?
You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise.

We already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month

HashFast - already stated that in BEST case scenario shipping starts first week of november.

ASICminer - dont know

Bitfury - few TH

BFL Cheesy

- few TH (with they babies 5,25,50)

EDIT: im betting 220 for next jump not the end of the month!

, Both BFL and Bitfury have shipped hundreds of TH/s in the past month or so, not just a few TH/s, obviously KNCminer are shipping at least a PH/s in October, and more on the way in November.

Things are starting to get really ugly for the big expensive data center based farms. ASICminer are only about 2% of the nethash atm, if Hashfast ship on time the 1,000 diff in December is a reasonable guess.

I don't think the net hash growth is going to slow much before 5PH/s is reached, it's all one classic waste of electricity right at the time the climate doesn't need wasted energy.

Anyone worked out how many kWh per BTC? I guess the average power consumption would be over 2watt per GH/s atm. must work out to well over 500kWh per coin when you factor in dater center aircon.

GodHatesFigs

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Just use www.allchains.info - it has the most reliable method.

Currently predicts 243,000,000 for next adjustment.

baritus

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Let's just say there is too much craziness to predict. Roll Eyes

polarhei

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Merit: 250

Firing it up

Quote from: baritus on September 19, 2013, 10:51:09 AM

How accurate would you say that is?

Past predictions:
Guess Actual
145m - 148m
170m - 189m
215m - N/A

I think should be +/- 45% to ensure as more asic in the network. The higher difficult it should be.

I think the next level should be 230M.

fattypig

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Activity: 224

Merit: 100

based on http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current Diffculty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 260,433,451

Looks like the increment is about 37% this time and that really sux. Looks like most miner ganna lose out.

Puppet

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yeah just saw that one too. There was a time I was refreshing btc exchange pages all day, now Im refreshing hashrate pages all day. I need a life lol.

niothor

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in defi we trust

Quote from: Puppet on October 10, 2013, 07:42:47 AM

Quote from: niothor on October 10, 2013, 07:39:09 AM

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10 10/10/2013 12:04 262741-262751 582 403 844 x3.08"

10 blocks is fairly meaningless, Ive seen it go anywhere from x0.3 to x5.

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120 09/10/2013 22:04 262631-262751 260 578 393 x1.38

If you add to that the upward trend, well 300 might get difficult, but 270-280M might still be possible.

I know , that's why i stated it 's just for 10 blocks , but still amazing , just like this one:

Last 10 13/10/2013 10:02 263321-263331 921 076 639 x4.87

Puppet

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Quote from: nwfella on October 13, 2013, 02:44:13 AM

Looking like 2 months from now we will be looking back and remembering with fondness when total network hashrate was still in the single digit PHashes.

I remember getting upset over breaking 1M difficulty. Now it looks like we may hit 1 billion this year.

nwfella

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Well hello there!

Looking like 2 months from now we will be looking back and remembering with fondness when total network hashrate was still in the single digit PHashes.

Puppet

legendary

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Heating up quite a bit now.

Last 120   12/10/2013 10:45   263112-263232   300 944 020   x1.59
Last 10   12/10/2013 22:44   263222-263232   519 052 786   x2.74
Next   16/10/2013 17:54   264096   261 500 120   x1.38

Blockchain shows hashrate just a hair under 2PH

Puppet

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Quote from: cowandtea on October 12, 2013, 08:48:44 AM

The difficulty need to slow down, its going too fast..

lol. In all likelihood, its only going to speed up over the next ~6 months. The avalanche of 28nm products from countless vendors has barely even started.

cowandtea

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The difficulty need to slow down, its going too fast..

ScaryHash

hero member

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Merit: 501

You might be right also.

All that means is machines that have not shipped, that were ordered months ago, are not worth the money people spent on them.

Now, it's not all about ROI, at least for some people. I care about securing the network also, but I'd like to make a little on the side too. Heh. Grin

Puppet

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Quote from: ScaryHash on October 11, 2013, 04:58:49 PM

Most of the ASIC buying has already been done. Now people are waiting for delivery.

Depends on what has been delivered and what will be delivered in the next 1.5-2 weeks.

My guess is 250ish, and next one will be 400 mil beginning of November.

Wink

We are only halfway through this difficulty interval and already it points towards ~250M. KnC seems to have found a firmware solution for their machines, if they resume production and shipment, the next 6-7 days might add a fair bit on top that.

Also, Im quite sure the difficulty change after that, will still happen this month. I dont expect HF to ship anything before then, so I think we will end october around 350M, maybe a bit more if asicminer delivers. End of November, all bets are off.

Puppet

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Quote from: Miz4r on October 11, 2013, 06:49:28 AM

Your estimates until April or May 2014 could very well be accurate, but the exponential growth can't go on forever and will have to level off at some point. I'd say we'll be around 60-70 PH/s in December 2014, that would be around 9 billion difficulty. That's around the point when the best ASICs on the market right now will no longer be able to mine more BTC than they cost in electricity.

What numbers do you use to get that 60-70PH figure? Keep in mind electricity is dirt cheap in some places in the US, Russia and China and also keeping in mind performance projections of current 28nm asics are skewed towards performance per dollar, not so much power efficiency. As illustration, from bitmine.ch specs this:

Power usage of 0.35 W/GH in low power, 0.6 W/GH in nominal and 1 W/GH in Turbo mode

https://bitmine.ch/?page_id=863

IMO we will end up well above 100PH, possibly as much as 3-400PH at todays BTC exchange rate.

The point that exponential growth cant continue forever is of course valid, and its very difficult to predict how fast these companies will be able to produce and deploy. If BFL is taken as benchmark, it will take a few decades, but if you read that Hashfast has contracted Ciara (https://hashfast.com/big-news-hashfast-signs-exclusive-deal-with-ciara-technologies/) and they are rumored to have the ability to crank out >1000 units per day (!), and keeping in mind Hashfast is just one of many, we may get their sooner than you'd think.

ScaryHash

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Most of the ASIC buying has already been done. Now people are waiting for delivery.

Depends on what has been delivered and what will be delivered in the next 1.5-2 weeks.

My guess is 250ish, and next one will be 400 mil beginning of November.

Wink

Miz4r

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Quote from: Dabs on October 10, 2013, 11:51:10 PM

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan 1.013 billion
2014 Feb 1.519 billion
2014 Mar 2.278 billion
2014 Apr 3.417 billion
2014 May 5.126 billion
2014 Jun 7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

Your estimates until April or May 2014 could very well be accurate, but the exponential growth can't go on forever and will have to level off at some point. I'd say we'll be around 60-70 PH/s in December 2014, that would be around 9 billion difficulty. That's around the point when the best ASICs on the market right now will no longer be able to mine more BTC than they cost in electricity.

cowandtea

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Quote from: Dabs on October 10, 2013, 11:51:10 PM

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan 1.013 billion
2014 Feb 1.519 billion
2014 Mar 2.278 billion
2014 Apr 3.417 billion
2014 May 5.126 billion
2014 Jun 7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

I predicted a slow down in increment instead. Reason cause the electricity cost is base on per GH/s.

Dabs

legendary

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The Concierge of Crypto

Starting at 300 million and having 50% increase per month gives me these estimates for next year:

2014 Jan 1.013 billion
2014 Feb 1.519 billion
2014 Mar 2.278 billion
2014 Apr 3.417 billion
2014 May 5.126 billion
2014 Jun 7.689 billion
2014 Jul 11.533 billion
2014 Aug 17.300 billion
2014 Sep 25.949 billion
2014 Oct 38.924 billion
2014 Nov 58.386 billion
2014 Dec 87.579 billion

90% is only likely for the next few months, but sustained for an entire year is simply too much. 50% starting now might be underestimating the immediate future, but seems likely is going to closely follow this pattern for several months.

So, it's a billion by January. Only profitable for the next generation of ASIC devices that cost below $3 per GH/s.

Puppet

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Quote

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120 09/10/2013 22:04 262631-262751 260 578 393 x1.38

Picking up some serious speed (or luck) now.

Last 120 10/10/2013 04:17 262680-262800 284 966 752 x1.51

Who knows, if this keeps up, that 300M may not be out of reach after all.

Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 13. (Read 32518 times)