Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 14.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: niothor on October 10, 2013, 08:39:09 AM

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10 10/10/2013 12:04 262741-262751 582 403 844 x3.08"

10 blocks is fairly meaningless, Ive seen it go anywhere from x0.3 to x5.

If you look at 120 blocks, there is still quite some variance, but at least the numbers mean something:
Last 120 09/10/2013 22:04 262631-262751 260 578 393 x1.38

If you add to that the upward trend, well 300 might get difficult, but 270-280M might still be possible.

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..

"Last 10 10/10/2013 12:04 262741-262751 582 403 844 x3.08"

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

220M would mean 1.57PH. Were are already at ~1.7PH and growing. Maybe if all those KnCs catch fire and we have a terrible streak of bad luck, we could get down to 220. But Im betting anything you want against that.

naRky

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Bitcoin is the future...

Quote from: Puppet on October 10, 2013, 08:11:42 AM

Quote from: naRky on October 10, 2013, 08:04:11 AM

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)?
You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise.

We already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month

HashFast - already stated that in BEST case scenario shipping starts first week of november.

ASICminer - dont know

Bitfury - few TH

BFL Cheesy

- few TH (with they babies 5,25,50)

EDIT: im betting 220 for next jump not the end of the month!

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: naRky on October 10, 2013, 08:04:11 AM

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)?
You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise.

We are already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month

naRky

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Bitcoin is the future...

KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess

Nemo1024

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1014

223,439,792 in 8 days.

KnC is not shipping as fast as expected, so the next diff jump might not be that huge.

Kluge

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1015

Kludgey method: Difficulty can be roughly determined by hashpower at the mid-way point of the difficulty change window (7D in a stagnant mining network) IF it isn't an anomaly (that is, hashpower increase remains fairly linear). We're roughly 4.85 days in and if this were the halfway point, the difficulty could be projected @ 240M. 7/4.85=~1.4433 (estimated %increase from current point to 7D point). 1.4433*(240-189.28[<-Cur. diff.])= 73.204 (estimated difficulty increase).

Projected difficulty: 262.484M

ETA: Nope, all wrong. Forgot to factor in that this isn't a stagnant network, and diff change window <14D. Hrm. Without maffing it out, assuming 11.5D window... 5.75D ends up being the halfway point. 5.75/4.85=~1.185567. 1.185567*(240-189.28)=60.13195824.

Projected difficulty: ~249.412M. In reality, because hashpower increases exponentially, not linearly (right now), an adjusted projection would be ~251-253M. There's a lot of corner-cutting going on here, though. Cheesy

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Quote from: smoothie on October 09, 2013, 08:13:42 PM

New guess is 231,000,000

Are you crazy or just bad at math and projections? Difficulty will be way above 240M at the next jump and probably also over 250M. This is a blatant certainty, you can bet on it.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: hulk on October 09, 2013, 10:25:55 PM

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328

Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing?

You can not measure the hashrate. All you can measure is how long it takes to find blocks, and from that estimate the hashrate (and future difficulty). Blocks finding is heavily subjected to luck, so you need a lot of blocks to get a reasonable estimate. Just have a look at these charts to get an idea:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

hulk

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328

Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing?

niothor

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Bitcoin difficulty

Time   Block   Difficulty   Ratio
Last change   06/10/2013 14:42   262080   189 281 249   x1.17
Last 120   09/10/2013 09:13   262546-262666   223 942 585   x1.18
Last 10   10/10/2013 01:27   262656-262666   475 183 053   x2.51
Next   18/10/2013 11:34   264096   223 259 328   x1.18

now this is going to be funny

smoothie

legendary

Activity: 2492

Merit: 1473

LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

New guess is 231,000,000

P_Shep

legendary

Activity: 1795

Merit: 1208

This is not OK.

Dropped back to where it was.
Maybe luck, maybe testing!

viriat0

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 501

very high!! Undecided

hulk

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: Puppet on October 09, 2013, 08:23:15 AM

Quote from: hulk on October 09, 2013, 08:20:06 AM

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53)

But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible.

You are right, I looked at the same website and the estimate difficulty jumps to even higher.

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 288,762,149

Oh man, I do hope its much lower..

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: hulk on October 09, 2013, 08:20:06 AM

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53)

But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible.

hulk

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Based on this website. Its much higher...

Current difficulty: 189,281,249
Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367

abdulmad

sr. member

Activity: 672

Merit: 250

I believe alt coins will be feeling the heat as well when this happens.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Just saw this on reddit:
http://www.futureblock.com/

Lets you bet on the network hashrate increase. pretty neat idea, and afaict, well executed.
I just wish the criterion was the unambigious difficulty instead of a guestimated network hashrate

Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 14. (Read 32501 times)