Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 15.

P_Shep

legendary

Activity: 1795

Merit: 1208

This is not OK.

Quote from: Puppet on October 09, 2013, 05:26:16 AM

Quote from: Puppet on October 08, 2013, 03:42:36 PM

Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.

Taking that back. Of course its hard to say how much of the current hashrate spike is statistical noise, how much KnC, Bitfury or any of the other players, but the game is on it seems:

Last 120   08/10/2013 20:47   262437-262557   279 863 848   x1.48
Last 10   09/10/2013 09:13   262547-262557   288 979 007   x1.53
Next   16/10/2013 15:48   264096   263 789 841   x1.39

If its not a statistical fluke, its bound to go up further considerably as KnC is no where near done shipping/deploying. Will we see 300M difficulty the next round? I think we may.

Man, yeah that's one hell of a jump!

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: Puppet on October 08, 2013, 03:42:36 PM

Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.

Taking that back. Of course its hard to say how much of the current hashrate spike is statistical noise, how much KnC, Bitfury or any of the other players, but the game is on it seems:

Last 120   08/10/2013 20:47   262437-262557   279 863 848   x1.48
Last 10   09/10/2013 09:13   262547-262557   288 979 007   x1.53
Next   16/10/2013 15:48   264096   263 789 841   x1.39

If its not a statistical fluke, its bound to go up further considerably as KnC is no where near done shipping/deploying. Will we see 300M difficulty the next round? I think we may.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: Minor Miner on October 08, 2013, 03:53:58 PM

Quote from: Puppet on September 21, 2013, 03:09:54 AM

Good job of totally missing the obvious. They will lower prices. A 400GH/s hashfast asic costs ~$30 to produce in volume.

Can you walk through the math you are so adamantly asserting is "possible" in volume? You are claiming that you can get to 7.5 cents per GH/s? Just give me a few numbers so I know that you are correct.

$4000 per processed 300mm wafer, 177 candidates with hashfast die size (324mm²) that is $22.5 per candidate in silicon cost.
Subtract 15% yield, a few dollar per chip for packaging and testing and $30 is about right.

Note that $4000 was volume price at TSMC for 28nm over a year ago, its quite possible its cheaper now.

Quote

Wafer cost, chips per wafer, packaging, boards etc. Power Supplies are more than per GH/s than your number all by themselves.

Im only talking about the asic. Feel free to make your own estimate of costs for the PCBs and PSUs. For reference, PCBs of highend videocards is on the order of $8, and those are very complex PCBs with up to 12 layers and very timing critical due to the highspeed ram etc.

Minor Miner

legendary

Activity: 2478

Merit: 1020

Be A Digital Miner

Quote from: Puppet on September 21, 2013, 03:09:54 AM

Good job of totally missing the obvious. They will lower prices. A 400GH/s hashfast asic costs ~$30 to produce in volume.

Can you walk through the math you are so adamantly asserting is "possible" in volume? You are claiming that you can get to 7.5 cents per GH/s? Just give me a few numbers so I know that you are correct.

Wafer cost, chips per wafer, packaging, boards etc. Power Supplies are more than per GH/s than your number all by themselves.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.

P_Shep

legendary

Activity: 1795

Merit: 1208

This is not OK.

242M is my guess.

baritus

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1052

I'm guessing 215m is the next difficulty, even though I was completely off last time..

lucasjkr

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 500

Crazy.

When I recieved my order from BFL, the total hashrate at bitminter was on the order of 5.5 TH. Today? 82 TH. And if i'm reading this right, the difficulty back then was right around 26 million? All I can say is that I am glad I sold the moment it got here!

fattypig

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: cowandtea on October 07, 2013, 02:17:44 AM

Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!

I bet everyone is thinking the same thing as you do Tongue

Kluge

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1015

Quote from: Buffer Overflow on October 07, 2013, 02:38:51 AM

Quote from: cowandtea on October 07, 2013, 02:17:44 AM

Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!

Mining is designed to protect the network, not make you profit.

Profit is designed to protect mining.

Buffer Overflow

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1016

Quote from: cowandtea on October 07, 2013, 02:17:44 AM

Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!

Mining is designed to protect the network, not make you profit.

cowandtea

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Bitcoin difficulty just hit 189,281,249, everyone please stop buying any more miner so I can break-even from my current one!!!

BeepBeep2

full member

Activity: 184

Merit: 100

Quote from: j68r on October 02, 2013, 12:17:08 PM

Quote from: Nemo1024 on October 02, 2013, 10:45:35 AM

That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...

KnC video I watched showed their Jupiter running on cgminer with 19.6% hw error rate. Probably 20% plus with rejected. Don't believe all the marketing hype, still impressive though but no ROI.

At 570 GH/s...
I'm sure around 500 GH/s HW Error will be low. KnC didn't break their promises, their chips were able to do even a little more than they projected, which was good.

j68r

member

Activity: 94

Merit: 10

Quote from: Nemo1024 on October 02, 2013, 10:45:35 AM

That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...

KnC video I watched showed their Jupiter running on cgminer with 19.6% hw error rate. Probably 20% plus with rejected. Don't believe all the marketing hype, still impressive though but no ROI.

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Quote from: Nemo1024 on October 02, 2013, 10:45:35 AM

Quote from: arlekyn13 on October 02, 2013, 10:19:17 AM

So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? Roll Eyes

That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...

Not a chance. It doesnt look like more than a few dozen of them will be turned on this week. The rest will only arrive next week and then we are so close to the next difficulty that even bringing online a petahash wont make much difference. Nah, this upcoming D change wont be significant. The next one is what Im looking forward to.

MoneyMorpheus

sr. member

Activity: 251

Merit: 250

Quote from: Nemo1024 on October 02, 2013, 10:45:35 AM

Quote from: arlekyn13 on October 02, 2013, 10:19:17 AM

So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? Roll Eyes

That is so. Bater make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...

You are not considering that a lot of the orders where placed by international buyers and may not be able to be turned on before the next difficult increase.

Nemo1024

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1014

Quote from: arlekyn13 on October 02, 2013, 10:19:17 AM

So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? Roll Eyes

That is so. Better make it around 320M once everyone who got their 570GH/s units shipped today, will receive them tomorrow and turn them on...

arlekyn13

sr. member

Activity: 288

Merit: 250

So KNC is shipping, my estimate of 245MM suddenly is to low? Roll Eyes

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

Merit: 1040

Network speed increase seems to be easing a bit temporarily. Looks like the next D increase may be relatively minor, all things considered:

Of course that will be the proverbial calm before the storm if KnC starts shipping in volume this week.

Nemo1024

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1014

Quote from: greyhawk on September 30, 2013, 04:24:28 AM

Quote from: arlekyn13 on September 29, 2013, 01:16:43 AM

My guess: 245MM. Do I get a cake if i got it right?

Yes.

But you're not going to be right.

Also the cake is a lie.

Yep... You'll be baked, and then there'll be cake.

Topic: Next difficulty ~4,000,000,000? Tracking difficulty since 145,000,000. - page 15. (Read 32518 times)