Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 123.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: St.Stephan on January 15, 2017, 01:46:44 PM

Wildcard would seem to be the possible unwinding of Chinese margin longs. I have read some pretty good analyses that call for as low as 650 based on comparison of BitMex margin longs (known) compared to Chinese margin longs (speculative).

How can "good analyses" on "speculative" numbers be of any use?

St.Stephan

sr. member

Activity: 281

Merit: 250

Wildcard would seem to be the possible unwinding of Chinese margin longs. I have read some pretty good analyses that call for as low as 650 based on comparison of BitMex margin longs (known) compared to Chinese margin longs (speculative).

sandiman

hero member

Activity: 560

Merit: 501

Quote from: molecular on January 15, 2017, 10:49:18 AM

Quote from: Afrikoin on January 15, 2017, 07:08:21 AM

Like finex never happened

Like PBOC never happened

That makes a lot of sense, indeed.

So we should continue the already-strong uptrend from before (after the market has fully digested the turmoil)

Important to note that you can draw that from every major resistance turned support since BTC turned bullish again in 2015. that's just BTC confirming its uptrend again and again.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: Afrikoin on January 15, 2017, 07:08:21 AM

Like finex never happened

Like PBOC never happened

That makes a lot of sense, indeed.

So we should continue the already-strong uptrend from before (after the market has fully digested the turmoil)

rjclarke2000

legendary

Activity: 1358

Merit: 1016

Quote from: Afrikoin on January 15, 2017, 07:08:21 AM

Where we at today on the weekly (i believe)

Like finex never happened

Like PBOC never happened

First target $900

re-evaluate at $900

Think it could go higher than $900

This is interesting and makes sense. Basically back to where we should be before the excitement and dump. Business as usual.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Where we at today on the weekly (i believe)

Like finex never happened

Like PBOC never happened

First target $900

re-evaluate at $900

Think it could go higher than $900

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Here is what i think is happening now

think $750 was the $780 support holding through a long wick. And we have been gradually clawing back to $900. $835 -$840 is cruciaal too

The ongoing low to $810 possibly $800 is a quest to find a higher higher ie $751, $774, $800? then perhaps a long candle pop past $835

Its why i am still in a position on bit-sim trader. I got in at $785, with a sell limit at $835 , But the consequent $751 lower later almost spooked me, but i held on. This was a classic double bottom. It is a very important emotional feel to go through to learn how to hold through it in another trade/setting.

*Ramblings*

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

What (more) did Bitcoin achieve – coalescence of the community into a GFN

http://www.coinscrum.com/2015/12/14/what-more-did-bitcoin-achieve-coalescence-of-the-community-into-a-gfn/

An under-appreciated but perhaps even more interesting thing that Satoshi Nakamoto achieved is this: Bitcoin has coalesced the financial cryptography community – and many other communities – around a single concept, a single code base, a single money and a single blockchain.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18#.ptwd0v5n4

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

If the average trend for Bitcoin holds, then it should be hitting ~2000$ in 2018-2019 (ignoring bubbles).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5ni4bc/if_the_average_trend_for_bitcoin_holds_then_it/

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Welcome to Bitcoin, everyone. Don't worry, he'll recover.

quake313

sr. member

Activity: 268

Merit: 250

Quote from: Afrikoin on January 12, 2017, 12:08:04 AM

NEW POLL at the top of this thread

Will Bitcoin break down to $300 - ever?

Yes - down to $300

No - never

Get voting pplease!

What you should ask is, if we go to 300 will miners go broke and the whole system collapse? I had a dream it went to 480 though...

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

NEW POLL at the top of this thread

Will Bitcoin break down to $300 - ever?

Yes - down to $300

No - never

Get voting pplease!

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

nanobrain

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Dumb broad

I guess the problem is that we broke 750 and haven't found the floor yet (no volume to suggest this correction has finished).

EDIT posted before I saw the most recent posts.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: chessnut on January 11, 2017, 09:52:34 PM

The current correction could no longer be a wave iv species, this is the bullish case scenario. A bearish case, flat or expanded flat, could take us to the floor of the last bear market in a swift wave c. too soon to count this yet.

Afrikoin

legendary

Activity: 1540

Merit: 1003

alan watts is all you need

Quote from: dasource on January 11, 2017, 04:16:05 PM

Good call indeed (was the China BTCC news just the perfect excuse for this to play out) ..

This rise and fall of BTC in past 4 months has confirmed what is true.

+the masses are sheeples

They will buy when price goes up and reassure themselves of a new moon landing (after the fact)

+ a lot of short term traders do not know how to trade medium and long terms. They say " you cannot forecast the future" lol! at them

+ wave B is trully a suckers rally and fools all

everyone (inluding master luc and chessnut) were convinced we were going up to crazy highs

+ now we are back to rationalization as a last resort - after the fact - after the market sells, we find excuses to pint to and say "that is the reason price fell" - no it wasnt! lol

+ prices move up and down coz of people. if you watch people, you will get a feel of the majority sheeple sentiment.

Anyway, we said here a lot of time even before price went up, that, as soon as we hit a high, *some* event or series of events would lead to a sell off and we woul use that as a n excuse fore the price fall

WATCH THIS THREAD and save yourself some stress!

Some throwbacks to show it is indeed possible to forecast the future by probability

From 9 months ago