Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 131. (Read 303310 times)
I read that earlier today. He doesn't say he's net short. Just that he is taking profits. Perfectly natural thing to do atm.
hey guys?
I got this email from Tuur Demeester Today.
What do you think? is $850 not on the table anymore? DO you think we will break resistance?
PS; He has been wrong in the past. But he has a good call/bad call ratio
Bitcoin: possible price resistance,
I'm taking some profit
Dear investor,
The Bitcoin price has more than doubled since I first published the report How to Position for the Rally in Bitcoin little over a year ago. What a run it's been!
I think there is a lot of potential left on the upside, but nothing goes up in a straight line and we are faced with a potential price resistance zone at $700-800. Here's how I see it:
The straight line is simply the $700 / CNY 4,000 price resistance (a potential price target for traders), and the slanted line is the resistance above a cup and handle continuation pattern that's been forming for the past two years.
Since the price went above $700 I've been selling some bitcoins, some more even today. Locking in profit, as well as giving me some more ammunition to buy back if prices drop. On the downside I see support at the $600 and $450 levels.
That being said, the cup and handle pattern is a huge deal in my view, and if we break out of it, it could catapult the price well over the previous all time high, perhaps to $1,600 in short order.
For your consideration, here's the Bitcoin price in Chinese yuan. Because of the 10% devaluation versus the dollar, the price has already breached both the CNY 4,000 and 5,000 resistance, big question is now if it can break out of that completed cup and handle pattern:
I remember telling myself to be cautious with my optimism when Bitcoin rallied to $30 in early 2013 because that was the previous all time high... only to see the price consequently rally up to $260 in a matter of weeks.
Since that time however, Bitcoin has matured from a tiny startup currency to the equivalent of a mid-cap S&P 400 stock, making explosive price moves a bit less likely, and currently we're also facing some scalability bottlenecks.
Bitcoin transaction fees have increased to at times over 15 cents per transaction, and it'll possibly take another 6 months to activate on-chain and second layer volume capacity, allowing for lower costs. For the time being, exchanges and other startups are processing millions of off-chain Bitcoin transactions per day at very low fees (trade off is that this is less secure), which I think shows that the ecosystem is very dynamic.
Nonetheless, the hurdles towards secure decentralized scalability are real in my view and so could depress investors' sentiment somewhat in the coming weeks and months.
In sum, even though I think we could see a pullback in the short to medium term, I'm optimistic on the prospects of Bitcoin for 2017 and I'm still expecting the price to approach or exceed the 2014 all time highs.
With this newsletter I'm occasionally keeping you informed about my views on the sector. (You're of course free to unsubscribe at any time.)
Best wishes,
Tuur Demeester
Editor-in-chief,
Adamant Research
Copyright © 2016 Adamant Research, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you opted in at adamantresearch.com or tuurdemeester.com.
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I got this email from Tuur Demeester Today.
What do you think? is $850 not on the table anymore? DO you think we will break resistance?
PS; He has been wrong in the past. But he has a good call/bad call ratio
Bitcoin: possible price resistance,
I'm taking some profit
Dear investor,
The Bitcoin price has more than doubled since I first published the report How to Position for the Rally in Bitcoin little over a year ago. What a run it's been!
I think there is a lot of potential left on the upside, but nothing goes up in a straight line and we are faced with a potential price resistance zone at $700-800. Here's how I see it:
The straight line is simply the $700 / CNY 4,000 price resistance (a potential price target for traders), and the slanted line is the resistance above a cup and handle continuation pattern that's been forming for the past two years.
Since the price went above $700 I've been selling some bitcoins, some more even today. Locking in profit, as well as giving me some more ammunition to buy back if prices drop. On the downside I see support at the $600 and $450 levels.
That being said, the cup and handle pattern is a huge deal in my view, and if we break out of it, it could catapult the price well over the previous all time high, perhaps to $1,600 in short order.
For your consideration, here's the Bitcoin price in Chinese yuan. Because of the 10% devaluation versus the dollar, the price has already breached both the CNY 4,000 and 5,000 resistance, big question is now if it can break out of that completed cup and handle pattern:
I remember telling myself to be cautious with my optimism when Bitcoin rallied to $30 in early 2013 because that was the previous all time high... only to see the price consequently rally up to $260 in a matter of weeks.
Since that time however, Bitcoin has matured from a tiny startup currency to the equivalent of a mid-cap S&P 400 stock, making explosive price moves a bit less likely, and currently we're also facing some scalability bottlenecks.
Bitcoin transaction fees have increased to at times over 15 cents per transaction, and it'll possibly take another 6 months to activate on-chain and second layer volume capacity, allowing for lower costs. For the time being, exchanges and other startups are processing millions of off-chain Bitcoin transactions per day at very low fees (trade off is that this is less secure), which I think shows that the ecosystem is very dynamic.
Nonetheless, the hurdles towards secure decentralized scalability are real in my view and so could depress investors' sentiment somewhat in the coming weeks and months.
In sum, even though I think we could see a pullback in the short to medium term, I'm optimistic on the prospects of Bitcoin for 2017 and I'm still expecting the price to approach or exceed the 2014 all time highs.
With this newsletter I'm occasionally keeping you informed about my views on the sector. (You're of course free to unsubscribe at any time.)
Best wishes,
Tuur Demeester
Editor-in-chief,
Adamant Research
Copyright © 2016 Adamant Research, All rights reserved.
You are receiving this email because you opted in at adamantresearch.com or tuurdemeester.com.
Our mailing address is:
Adamant Research
17 Chanis Calle S Los Pinos
Corregimiento de Parque Lefevre
Panama City
Panama
Add us to your address book
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You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list
Click here to Reply or Forward
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In this plot, we are assuming approximately 2.5m coins have been lost.
wow, Lingham in the post you mentioned https://vinnylingham.com/deconstructing-the-bitcoin-market-cap-ce52b0d87035
Quote from: Vinny Lingham
The general consensus is that 1.5m-4m Bitcoins are gone or lost forever. This is VERY material — I believe estimating that 2.5m is a healthy estimate for coins we will never see again, including Satoshi’s coins (risk percentage adjusted).
1.5 to 4 million BTC lost? I doubt it. Certainly not "general consensus".
I'd rather just use inflation to "correct" the graph, not assume any lost coins.
I agree completely considering that any lost coins can see a collision in the future thereby making them not lost. It is also impossible to estimate how many coins are truly lost on dead hdd anyway
In this plot, we are assuming approximately 2.5m coins have been lost.
wow, Lingham in the post you mentioned https://vinnylingham.com/deconstructing-the-bitcoin-market-cap-ce52b0d87035
Quote from: Vinny Lingham
The general consensus is that 1.5m-4m Bitcoins are gone or lost forever. This is VERY material — I believe estimating that 2.5m is a healthy estimate for coins we will never see again, including Satoshi’s coins (risk percentage adjusted).
1.5 to 4 million BTC lost? I doubt it. Certainly not "general consensus".
I'd rather just use inflation to "correct" the graph, not assume any lost coins.
Okay, so I plotted this chart, but I don’t think this is the right way to look at historical price…
http://woobull.com/bitcoins-dilution-adjusted-price/
http://woobull.com/bitcoins-dilution-adjusted-price/
It's like looking at "market cap", right?
Cup and a handle?
Like taken from a textbook, no? (although we don't see the volume here. It should be rising on the handle part (starting August 2016))
It's just missing the completion by breakout above the rim of the cup. We'll see. If it plays out, we're off to new highs.
Quote frm article where chart is from
This chart is the Bitcoin historically adjusted price taking into account lost coins and inflation effects of new coins mined into existence, if you were to treat bitcoin like a company. (Yes we are very close to an all time high.)
I thought it would be fun to plot this after reading Vinny Lingham’s post on deconstructing Bitcoin’s marketcap. Lingham reasons that since more coins are mined into existence daily, this has the effect of a continual stock split. All stock charts we see on Wall Street correct for this dilution effect so we can compare today’s price with past prices never mind the actual number of shares in existence. In this plot, we are assuming approximately 2.5m coins have been lost.
Okay, so I plotted this chart, but I don’t think this is the right way to look at historical price…
http://woobull.com/bitcoins-dilution-adjusted-price/
Cup and a handle?
Like taken from a textbook, no? (although we don't see the volume here. It should be rising on the handle part (starting August 2016))
It's just missing the completion by breakout above the rim of the cup. We'll see. If it plays out, we're off to new highs.
Cup and a handle?
Great funny video 
Good for seeing how tragic price falls can happen in a short span.
Never rule anything out! Even an all time high and a fall back to $200
Check your bias, check your emotions
Blame it on MT.GOX
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2ku1A5Ox8U
Good for seeing how tragic price falls can happen in a short span.
Never rule anything out! Even an all time high and a fall back to $200
Check your bias, check your emotions
Blame it on MT.GOX
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2ku1A5Ox8U
Another chart
Bitcoin still seems to be obeying bullish trend, which i like
Found support more than once on the second trendline up from bottom of my fork. So I guess we seem to be aiming for median line which is now above $850 roughly. Currently we are approaching level of the last peak in June which may provide a bit of resistance though.
If bitcoin can continue upwards to top of the fork that is getting to new all time highs territory
Bitcoin still seems to be obeying bullish trend, which i like
Found support more than once on the second trendline up from bottom of my fork. So I guess we seem to be aiming for median line which is now above $850 roughly. Currently we are approaching level of the last peak in June which may provide a bit of resistance though. If bitcoin can continue upwards to top of the fork that is getting to new all time highs territory
I agree with all but the bold.
I'm waiting for $850 before I even look at a chart again.
Afrikoin and Kehtolo, I greatly appreciate your predictions! Good job guys!
While typing this, Huobi just broke the resistance line in this triangle. OKCoin already had..
If you draw this triangle on their 4H charts, you'll see what i mean.
Although it was a weak attempt and has actually fallen back. I think we need to see over 5350 for confirmation.
~$760 on Finex and Stamp
If you draw this triangle on their 4H charts, you'll see what i mean.
Although it was a weak attempt and has actually fallen back. I think we need to see over 5350 for confirmation.
~$760 on Finex and Stamp
Touched 5355 on OK and 5357 on Huobi.. bounced off.. now regrouping.. if we smash above that.. and the west follows over $760 (i actually put it at around 750 for Stamp) then breakout confirmed.
Stamp and Finex currently ~753
It's getting close to these levels.. i didn't expect that it would happen today already! I thought over the weekend..(but this is bitcoin, so.. anything goes)
Next resistance around the June high 777 stamp and 789 finex. After that 800 (i don't actually see any resistance at 800, more of a psychological barrier). Plain sailing all the way up to 850-900 range.
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Link for joining
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Hi Afrikoin..
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
Thanks! You must be one of the many lurkers on here
Im not sure about SegWit, see this article https://medium.com/@michaelkimani/how-will-segwit-affect-the-price-of-bitcoin-b58d7c29cd9a#.4ff5pet7o
I am looking athe market until we hit a top, then will evaluate based on sentiment at the top.
At the back of my mind, i am expecting *some big event* to rear its head when we hit the top (whatever top that is $870, $900, $1163, $1200, $1300)
There is aone large triangle i a watching, that could step in and send us low once we hit the top. But like i said, this is one idea i have (of many) of how this could play out next 1 year.
Here is the large triangle i refer to, probably similar to the triangle from June this year. So a mega wave 4 (in elliott wave)
Still, i am open to all the other wild bull mega cycle forecasts. Just trying to keep an open mind.
Hmppm.. I'm not really sure I agree with him on SegWit.. I think we should see a sell off if we do gt above ~$1100 or so.. because that would just be normal. I don't think it would necessarily have much to do with SegWit (although that won't stop people claiming that)
SegWit will lead to investor confidence. It will lead to more transactions.. and possible LN (waaaaay more transactions) and these things will lead to investor confidence. This will see highs broken. So I expect a finishing off of our current triangle to last until late Feb-Mar (or even June!) and then new ATH soon after.
Possible?
Bitcoin made The Simpsons intro! You know what that means
Hi Afrikoin..
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
Thanks! You must be one of the many lurkers on here
Im not sure about SegWit, see this article https://medium.com/@michaelkimani/how-will-segwit-affect-the-price-of-bitcoin-b58d7c29cd9a#.4ff5pet7o
I am looking athe market until we hit a top, then will evaluate based on sentiment at the top.
At the back of my mind, i am expecting *some big event* to rear its head when we hit the top (whatever top that is $870, $900, $1163, $1200, $1300)
There is aone large triangle i a watching, that could step in and send us low once we hit the top. But like i said, this is one idea i have (of many) of how this could play out next 1 year.
Here is the large triangle i refer to, probably similar to the triangle from June this year. So a mega wave 4 (in elliott wave)
Still, i am open to all the other wild bull mega cycle forecasts. Just trying to keep an open mind.
Hi Afrikoin..
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
Yes, I have.. I've been a member here since mid '13.. this is one of my favourite threads. I'm not sure how long following.. a year or more maybe?
Keep up the good work!
The bigger picture is looking more and more positive.
One other point i wanted to make was.. depending on how you draw triangles (which asscending trendline you chose) on this current phase of the chart, we could be completing this large triangle either by next March or next June.
Wouldn't it be just wonderfully serrendipitous if SegWit got locked in around the end of either triangle? (for date, i say end Feb-beginning March or the other bigger triangle June or so)
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