Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 133. (Read 303329 times)
18 reasons bitcoin price could 10x or more source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5dwomm/18_reasons_bitcoin_price_could_10x_or_more/
A friend told me there was no way that Bitcoin could go up 10x from $750. So I made this list for him.
Growing use of bitcoin for the unbankable. For example in the USA, the “legal” marijuana industry is a $20 billion industry that operates primarily in cash since marijuana businesses cannot get bank accounts. What if they started using bitcoin for their banking needs. Worldwide probably 3+ billion people are unbankable due to lack of ID, trustworthy domestic banking system, etc. Bitcoin on a phone could leapfrog legacy banking systems for billions of people.
Bitcoin evolves where it is easy for the average investor to buy BTC. *Bitcoin futures are likely to be launched in 2017 by the CME. See: http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-futures-might-be-coming-soon-1479143252 I would assume it will be upward pressure on BTC prices.
If a Bitcoin ETF ever launches it will create a potentially huge onramp of new investors. The Gold ETF generated $9 MM purchase per day. The less popular oil ETF generated $4 MM purchases of oil per day. The entire trading market for USD / BTC is $10 MM per day right now. Traders estimate that it’s only possible to buy $1.7 of new BTC a day without moving the price. Even that seems really high to me. Either way, if a ETF comes online now, it sure seems likely to inflate a bitcoin bubble for good or ill. See : https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-batsbzx-2016-30/batsbzx201630-23.pdf for a good explanation here.
Development of smart contracts creates entirely new industries that ride on bitcoin. Work by Rootstock and Blockstream are promising here. Bitcoin could have Ethereum like smart contract ability by 2017. Success here could create payment options for entirely new industries, which would boost demand for BTC.
Bitcoin theft resistance improves. Right now it’s tough for a non-technical person to store bitcoin independently securely. It’s also impossible for central authorities to keep bitcoin online securely. Technology almost already exists to change that though.
Easier access to purchase in foreign countries. Places where BTC is most needed like Egypt, Venezuela, India, etc it’s hard to get.
Mainstream USA capital accepts this as a an asset class and pension funds or hedge funds start allocating a % of assets to BTC. See this Wall Street report for a description of why this makes sense for institutional and personal investors: http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/Bitcoin-Ringing-The-Bell-For-A-New-Asset-Class.pdf
Bitcoin continues the linear pace of adoption it has today -- no heroic gains but just slow and steady with time. Steady growth of adoption combined with limited inflation or even deflation of supply will lead to price growth.
Commercial / transactional uses emerge that drive more widespread ownership and lower volatility
The world continues to deliver moments that test faith in fiat currency such as the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bailouts and quantitative easing, paper currency expiration in India, hyperinflation in Argentina, Chinese Yuan devaluation, Cyprus bank confiscation, systemic collapse in Venezuela, etc. Combine those moments with greater access to bitcoin worldwide and belief that it’s a decent store of value.
Bitcoin use as the rails for remittance and cross border transactions. This use is already growing at 100%+ year on year, albeit from a very small base. It would need to grow much, much more to materially increase demand for bitcoin.
Most countries are terrible managers of their own currency. Some countries such as Panama and El Salvador have already given up on the idea of managing their own currency and simply use US Dollars. What if just one of the 190+ countries on earth adopted Bitcoin as legal tender for some or even all uses? For comparison sake, the 55th largest currency, New Zealand has a money supply of $105 billion which is approximately 10x the size of bitcoin’s current market cap. China has a money supply of $20 trillion which is 1800x bitcoin. Bitcoin money supply is currently equivalent to Cambodia and Ghana at around $11 billion.
Bitcoin becomes the replacement of higher-fee processors like Visa, MasterCard and American Express, which have a combined market capitalization of almost $350 Bn today. If Bitcoin were to capture that value, one Bitcoin would be worth almost $17,000. While bitcoin transaction volume is slowly growing, bitcoin is not on pace to get anywhere near visa like transactions at current pace.
Some countries begin to buy Bitcoin for foreign reserves the way they buy gold today.
Bitcoin is increasingly used for crowdfunding and investment funding. This is already happening. In 2016 there have already been dozens of ICOs of startups using bitcoin and ethereum as currency for multi-million dollar fundraisings.
Use of bitcoin for regulation arbitrage grows. For example the growth of bitcoin for prediction markets, internet betting, drugs, darknet trades, etc.
Development of micro payments that ride on bitcoin. There are a few startups working on this such as Brave browser, Yours, 21 but there is no real traction yet. Success here could create payment options for entirely new industries, which would boost demand for BTC.
Increased ability to scale and associated lower transaction fees. After SegWit goes live multiple scaling solutions become possible including the lightning network, other off chain solutions, or a fork to a larger block size. Right now high transaction fees and full blocks are retarding the growth of bitcoin as a payment system. Scaling solutions could and should reverse this though.
The development of a stablecoin which makes it possible for Bitcoin to become the behind the scenes asset for many applications, where the user might not be aware that they are actually using bitcoin.
Some of these things alone could create a 10x price increase. Other things will merely push the price slightly north. What do you think? Anything you would add or remove from this list?
A friend told me there was no way that Bitcoin could go up 10x from $750. So I made this list for him.
Growing use of bitcoin for the unbankable. For example in the USA, the “legal” marijuana industry is a $20 billion industry that operates primarily in cash since marijuana businesses cannot get bank accounts. What if they started using bitcoin for their banking needs. Worldwide probably 3+ billion people are unbankable due to lack of ID, trustworthy domestic banking system, etc. Bitcoin on a phone could leapfrog legacy banking systems for billions of people.
Bitcoin evolves where it is easy for the average investor to buy BTC. *Bitcoin futures are likely to be launched in 2017 by the CME. See: http://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-futures-might-be-coming-soon-1479143252 I would assume it will be upward pressure on BTC prices.
If a Bitcoin ETF ever launches it will create a potentially huge onramp of new investors. The Gold ETF generated $9 MM purchase per day. The less popular oil ETF generated $4 MM purchases of oil per day. The entire trading market for USD / BTC is $10 MM per day right now. Traders estimate that it’s only possible to buy $1.7 of new BTC a day without moving the price. Even that seems really high to me. Either way, if a ETF comes online now, it sure seems likely to inflate a bitcoin bubble for good or ill. See : https://www.sec.gov/comments/sr-batsbzx-2016-30/batsbzx201630-23.pdf for a good explanation here.
Development of smart contracts creates entirely new industries that ride on bitcoin. Work by Rootstock and Blockstream are promising here. Bitcoin could have Ethereum like smart contract ability by 2017. Success here could create payment options for entirely new industries, which would boost demand for BTC.
Bitcoin theft resistance improves. Right now it’s tough for a non-technical person to store bitcoin independently securely. It’s also impossible for central authorities to keep bitcoin online securely. Technology almost already exists to change that though.
Easier access to purchase in foreign countries. Places where BTC is most needed like Egypt, Venezuela, India, etc it’s hard to get.
Mainstream USA capital accepts this as a an asset class and pension funds or hedge funds start allocating a % of assets to BTC. See this Wall Street report for a description of why this makes sense for institutional and personal investors: http://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/Bitcoin-Ringing-The-Bell-For-A-New-Asset-Class.pdf
Bitcoin continues the linear pace of adoption it has today -- no heroic gains but just slow and steady with time. Steady growth of adoption combined with limited inflation or even deflation of supply will lead to price growth.
Commercial / transactional uses emerge that drive more widespread ownership and lower volatility
The world continues to deliver moments that test faith in fiat currency such as the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent bailouts and quantitative easing, paper currency expiration in India, hyperinflation in Argentina, Chinese Yuan devaluation, Cyprus bank confiscation, systemic collapse in Venezuela, etc. Combine those moments with greater access to bitcoin worldwide and belief that it’s a decent store of value.
Bitcoin use as the rails for remittance and cross border transactions. This use is already growing at 100%+ year on year, albeit from a very small base. It would need to grow much, much more to materially increase demand for bitcoin.
Most countries are terrible managers of their own currency. Some countries such as Panama and El Salvador have already given up on the idea of managing their own currency and simply use US Dollars. What if just one of the 190+ countries on earth adopted Bitcoin as legal tender for some or even all uses? For comparison sake, the 55th largest currency, New Zealand has a money supply of $105 billion which is approximately 10x the size of bitcoin’s current market cap. China has a money supply of $20 trillion which is 1800x bitcoin. Bitcoin money supply is currently equivalent to Cambodia and Ghana at around $11 billion.
Bitcoin becomes the replacement of higher-fee processors like Visa, MasterCard and American Express, which have a combined market capitalization of almost $350 Bn today. If Bitcoin were to capture that value, one Bitcoin would be worth almost $17,000. While bitcoin transaction volume is slowly growing, bitcoin is not on pace to get anywhere near visa like transactions at current pace.
Some countries begin to buy Bitcoin for foreign reserves the way they buy gold today.
Bitcoin is increasingly used for crowdfunding and investment funding. This is already happening. In 2016 there have already been dozens of ICOs of startups using bitcoin and ethereum as currency for multi-million dollar fundraisings.
Use of bitcoin for regulation arbitrage grows. For example the growth of bitcoin for prediction markets, internet betting, drugs, darknet trades, etc.
Development of micro payments that ride on bitcoin. There are a few startups working on this such as Brave browser, Yours, 21 but there is no real traction yet. Success here could create payment options for entirely new industries, which would boost demand for BTC.
Increased ability to scale and associated lower transaction fees. After SegWit goes live multiple scaling solutions become possible including the lightning network, other off chain solutions, or a fork to a larger block size. Right now high transaction fees and full blocks are retarding the growth of bitcoin as a payment system. Scaling solutions could and should reverse this though.
The development of a stablecoin which makes it possible for Bitcoin to become the behind the scenes asset for many applications, where the user might not be aware that they are actually using bitcoin.
Some of these things alone could create a 10x price increase. Other things will merely push the price slightly north. What do you think? Anything you would add or remove from this list?
The great opportunity
The Bitcoin Dilemma. The odds. It either works and goes up to moon, or fails and tanks to zero
What could possibly go wrong? enough to cause price to take a dip from highs to unprecedented lows?
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
In a longer term (months) outlook, yes, or at least I still don't believe this to be "The bull that takes us to $40k".
Really though, I have done very little chart watching or BTC trading in the last 3 or 4 months. Mainly just holding out for 850+ where I will then reassess to see if my thoughts change there.
What the real options here are:
*If this is luc's mega cycle III, this should be so much more organized than it is. Very clear impulses and a clear and consistent rise in volume during the advances up. Volume is okay, but it's still not consistent enough.
*If this is my 5 of III where 1200 was 3 of III, then this is going pretty much exactly as it should. Indecisive and difficult to make headway until further major levels are broken.
*Then there is my main count. The one where $152 was only A of a large ABC correction to the 5 year wave-1. The rise since the lows still doesn't scream impulse. Broken rules in Luc's count, triangles that don't belong, and even hugely disproportionate movements (mainly in the corrections based on time) that make this always look like a B wave in that it has very little actual conviction except in the two pumps that were short in comparison to the time spent since the lows.
Interesting. So if we are still in your 5year wave-1 we are to expect a downward wave-2 and then later a larger wave-3 that could finally take us to the moon? Is this correct? I checked some of your older posts on tradingview many have turned out wrong and some have kind of been correct. Perhaps one shouldn't put to much confidence in EW after all. I have to give it to luc though. His EW analysis has been very correct since many years back. So if I'd had to choose I'd go with him.
fool. you are out of your depth. How dare you show disrespect. Lol!
Fool. You dont know what you talking about
You are right. I should just stop fooling around..
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
In a longer term (months) outlook, yes, or at least I still don't believe this to be "The bull that takes us to $40k".
Really though, I have done very little chart watching or BTC trading in the last 3 or 4 months. Mainly just holding out for 850+ where I will then reassess to see if my thoughts change there.
What the real options here are:
*If this is luc's mega cycle III, this should be so much more organized than it is. Very clear impulses and a clear and consistent rise in volume during the advances up. Volume is okay, but it's still not consistent enough.
*If this is my 5 of III where 1200 was 3 of III, then this is going pretty much exactly as it should. Indecisive and difficult to make headway until further major levels are broken.
*Then there is my main count. The one where $152 was only A of a large ABC correction to the 5 year wave-1. The rise since the lows still doesn't scream impulse. Broken rules in Luc's count, triangles that don't belong, and even hugely disproportionate movements (mainly in the corrections based on time) that make this always look like a B wave in that it has very little actual conviction except in the two pumps that were short in comparison to the time spent since the lows.
Interesting. So if we are still in your 5year wave-1 we are to expect a downward wave-2 and then later a larger wave-3 that could finally take us to the moon? Is this correct? I checked some of your older posts on tradingview many have turned out wrong and some have kind of been correct. Perhaps one shouldn't put to much confidence in EW after all. I have to give it to luc though. His EW analysis has been very correct since many years back. So if I'd had to choose I'd go with him.
fool. you are out of your depth. How dare you show disrespect. Lol!
Fool. You dont know what you talking about
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
In a longer term (months) outlook, yes, or at least I still don't believe this to be "The bull that takes us to $40k".
Really though, I have done very little chart watching or BTC trading in the last 3 or 4 months. Mainly just holding out for 850+ where I will then reassess to see if my thoughts change there.
What the real options here are:
*If this is luc's mega cycle III, this should be so much more organized than it is. Very clear impulses and a clear and consistent rise in volume during the advances up. Volume is okay, but it's still not consistent enough.
*If this is my 5 of III where 1200 was 3 of III, then this is going pretty much exactly as it should. Indecisive and difficult to make headway until further major levels are broken.
*Then there is my main count. The one where $152 was only A of a large ABC correction to the 5 year wave-1. The rise since the lows still doesn't scream impulse. Broken rules in Luc's count, triangles that don't belong, and even hugely disproportionate movements (mainly in the corrections based on time) that make this always look like a B wave in that it has very little actual conviction except in the two pumps that were short in comparison to the time spent since the lows.
Interesting. So if we are still in your 5year wave-1 we are to expect a downward wave-2 and then later a larger wave-3 that could finally take us to the moon? Is this correct? I checked some of your older posts on tradingview many have turned out wrong and some have kind of been correct. Perhaps one shouldn't put to much confidence in EW after all. I have to give it to luc though. His EW analysis has been very correct since many years back. So if I'd had to choose I'd go with him.
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
In a longer term (months) outlook, yes, or at least I still don't believe this to be "The bull that takes us to $40k".
Really though, I have done very little chart watching or BTC trading in the last 3 or 4 months. Mainly just holding out for 850+ where I will then reassess to see if my thoughts change there.
What the real options here are:
*If this is luc's mega cycle III, this should be so much more organized than it is. Very clear impulses and a clear and consistent rise in volume during the advances up. Volume is okay, but it's still not consistent enough.
*If this is my 5 of III where 1200 was 3 of III, then this is going pretty much exactly as it should. Indecisive and difficult to make headway until further major levels are broken.
*Then there is my main count. The one where $152 was only A of a large ABC correction to the 5 year wave-1. The rise since the lows still doesn't scream impulse. Broken rules in Luc's count, triangles that don't belong, and even hugely disproportionate movements (mainly in the corrections based on time) that make this always look like a B wave in that it has very little actual conviction except in the two pumps that were short in comparison to the time spent since the lows.
context
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
In a longer term (months) outlook, yes, or at least I still don't believe this to be "The bull that takes us to $40k".
Really though, I have done very little chart watching or BTC trading in the last 3 or 4 months. Mainly just holding out for 850+ where I will then reassess to see if my thoughts change there.
What the real options here are:
*If this is luc's mega cycle III, this should be so much more organized than it is. Very clear impulses and a clear and consistent rise in volume during the advances up. Volume is okay, but it's still not consistent enough.
*If this is my 5 of III where 1200 was 3 of III, then this is going pretty much exactly as it should. Indecisive and difficult to make headway until further major levels are broken.
*Then there is my main count. The one where $152 was only A of a large ABC correction to the 5 year wave-1. The rise since the lows still doesn't scream impulse. Broken rules in Luc's count, triangles that don't belong, and even hugely disproportionate movements (mainly in the corrections based on time) that make this always look like a B wave in that it has very little actual conviction except in the two pumps that were short in comparison to the time spent since the lows.
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
Still bearish, RyNinDaCleM?
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
The Banana is always bullish. It's when the market goes bananas with euphoria. The bearish alternative is known as the flaccid cock... fast curve which ends in a straight down trajectory.
LOl!
Classic *bullish* banana pattern
Full page Kraken ad in this week's Economist magazine
I prefer to look at bitcoin priced in gold which i think is like that other chart upside down.
To me it is clear that bitcoin is trending up priced in gold, just as price in fiat. Which I think likely to continue.
I found the price spikes around the US election quite interesting. Both gold and bitcoin spiked high during the initial realisation Trump looked like winning. (Both viewed as safe haven?) But then both gold and bitcoin gave up all gains quite soon after. Price action very similar in both assets.
But then a huge divergence, while gold crashes below key technical levels and now looks aweful (manipulated??) Bitcoin reverses and resumes its bullish trend (suspicion is that bitcoin much harder to manipulate than gold??)
Gold/Bitcoin ratio
What does this chart tell us? Someone please share an opinion
What does this chart tell us? Someone please share an opinion
It looks like bitcoin is trending against gold, and it looks about to accelerate.
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