Topic: Nights Watch by Afrikoin - page 167. (Read 303329 times)

500? Why you say so?

i find that hard to believe considering all the drama around the bitcoin protocol. Does that not matter?

 

Wish you good luck. What's your strategy, if it doesn't go your way?

Pffft, we're going for 500 not 300.

Yes. I still think we're going to break $350. i am looking at $320 - $300, possibly $250

Yes I have read this, too. People talked like its a certainty. But the trendline has hold and most people already went short.
So after this shortsqueeze, now it would need a lot of panic to break sub 350, I would keep an eye on the Ichimoku cloud and ema 50 on 4h and 1d chart.
Cloud shows support for the line on 1d.



on the 4h consolidation above the cloud would be nice.

How sure are you  still sure we are gonna break $350..?

From what i gather looking at charts and discussions online, your $350 WILL be broken. Almost a foregone conclusion now.

Short term near term DanV outlook

me too!

But I've narrowed mine to 3 & 4

I also disagree with his timing of his low in 2017 ie 3

From LINK ABOVE

NOTE: Please keep in mind that just because I have drawn particular line or suggested a target does not mean I will cause the price to follow that path. I say this because many appear to have religious like zeal for BTCUSD-1.35% to move forever upwards without any retracement where suggesting anything else is a gross sin.
Also I am ignoring all the positive and negative new developments and accept that I don't really know nor understand any of this.

Analysis -
Due to limited availability of price history longer term EW counts are near impossible. Therefore, it is possible as I have explained in previous charts publication we could assume Nov 2013 top as lager wave . If this is correct then we could have:

1. Jan 2015 low as possible wave and that we have started a possible expanding ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction which could see retest of 2013 high or make marginal new high to complete the larger cycle of 5 waves (please see chart below for details).



2. as per No1. but that we are forming a contracting triangle since Nov 2013 high as wave as shown in the chart which means we could continue to chop about in tighter range till we complete this before breaking to upside to retest the Nov 2013 high or make marginal new high.



3. OR Possibly that we have November 2013 High as major top of 5 wave cycle
3. Then what we are seeing since is retracement of the entire cycle. Under this scenario we have Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low as 1st zigzag. Since when we have made a corrective zigzag to the upside with spike high in Nov 2015. If this proves to be correct then we could see another larger zigzag to the downside as illustrated on that chart. Based on AB-CD patter where we consider percentage drop from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low and apply this from Nov 2015 spike high we get possible downside target of in the proximity of 65 which incidentally is also an area of wave 4 of one degree lower cycle often the area for retracement based on EW principle.

4. As per 3 above but with Nov 2015 spike high as being 1st part of the zigzag retracement to the upside where we could drop to 250 area and make another zigzag with upside target around 650 area as shown in the P&F chart below. Once the upside retracement is complete we could then drop in second zigzag at least to Jan 2015 low or make new low towards 65 zone.



It is interesting that Nov 2013, 2014 proved to be spike highs of the cycle. Could Nov 2015 also be the spike high of the cycle and that we now continue lower as per 3 above? Time will tell. Once we have some clarity, I will republish chart accordingly.

Conclusion: Due to the length of time for correction and lack of bullish counts to the upside, I am leaning on scenarios 3 or 4.

Latest DanV, I have similar scenarios in mind:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/XNGkAb8M-BTCUSD-Outlook-for-2016-17-with-4-possibilities-see-notes/

Yes sure
The upper orange line is from ath to the 502$ top, the lower orange is the line from the last two lows during bear market, together they could form a triangle (bearish scenario).
the purple line is from the two failed breakouts during bearmarket, so its an old resistance line, which acted as support during the dump last days. It could form a triangle together with the upper orange line for consolidation.
the teal channel, is the lower support line from breakout which is parallel to the line of last two tops. The lower teal line and upper orange line could form also a triangle here.
The red line is the log down trend from bear market.

So it looks ok for now but falling below 350 would invalidate most of this.

/e: Mostly obious is that outbreak of the upper orange line would be very bullish and the middle of the channel would be a soft sell and the upper area of the channel a strong sell.

Do you mind sharing this chart when zoomed out?

So we can see how these channels line up on a price chart since the ATH. For perspective and framing

Thanks for the chart Koryu.

every trend has an end but for now the long term parallel channel is still intact

Interesting.

Slope on those lines looks quite convincing.

Here is another chart by a friend of mine. Chart is from 2 months ago

This is what he said

The chart shows the outlook I have for bitcoin. I still maintain that a move below $150 is necessary to complete the correction which started at the >$1000 high. The recent move that bitcoin made to $500 must have fooled alot of people.

As shown in this chart it was a (B) wave. Elliott Wave Principle describes B waves as phonies. Text: "B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both).....If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market", chances are it's a B wave. " . This is precisely what happened. People got trapped into thinking we have a new bull market in bitcoin, price rose to above $500 only to fall back below $400 in a matter of hours. This is a perfect lesson in Elliott waves. We know that 5-wave moves determine the direction of the market. Therefore for us to proclaim that the bull market in bitcoin has resumed, we MUST get a five wave move upwards since a low. Looking at the chart in the low area marked (A) at about $150 and the move up to $500 it is clearly corrective (and thus the reason I have marked it W X Y). Bitcoin is going to provide a nice opportunity to go long soon. In fact if you look at the blue horizontal line displaying $85.14 and then you look to the left of the chart, you will notice two converging trendlines. That is a triangle and is the area of the previous 4th wave when bitcoin was rising to above $1000. I expect bitcoin to bottom at about $85 dollars and that will be your opportunity to buy aggressively.

Some of the points raised in the above quote have been raised by other EW chartists - DanV, Ryndiclem. It is not the most popular or even common opinion. But the coincidence is uncanny, and anyone would be a fool to ignore this.

My advice, cut up this chart and stick it on a wall as a reminder of a possible medium term trend

If you ever watched DanVs earliest videos, he awlays talked about an ABC and 5 waves within ABCs.

Based on all i've absorbed,I'm inclined to say $162 to $500 was a higher order move of April 2014.

Thus, a C is required to complete the pattern. Could be prolonged and dragged out. Could be a sharp drop and back up.

blue lines are a general direction. So obviously could make zig zags on the way down. Blue lines are a general direction.
 
I am comparing the patterns forming here with similar patterns after double tops



It is only 6 months forward, which i consider medium term